Financial Review

The Value of Everything

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-30-2015.mp3 Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB) Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSS Financial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 5 = 17,745 SPX + .06 = 2108 NAS + 17 = 5128 10 YR YLD – .01 = 2.27% OIL – .27 = 48.35 GOLD – 8.40 = 1089.30 SILV – .08 = 14.83   Gross domestic product rose at a 2.3% annual rate from April to June, missing expectations for 2.6% growth. First quarter GDP was revised to show 0.6 percent growth after previous reports showed a 0.2 percent downturn. The latest reading on GDP was propelled by higher consumer spending on big-ticket items such as new cars and trucks and the strongest housing market in years. Personal spending accounted for two percent of the 2.3% headline increase.   Builders increased spending on new home construction at a 6.6% clip in the spring, especially for townhouses, condos and apartment units. That follows 10% gains in the prior two quarters. US exports, meanwhile, snapped back with a 5.3% increase after a 6% drop in the first quarter. Imports rose at a slower 3.5% pace. The improved trade figures also gave the economy a small boost.   Business investment was weak again. Outlays on equipment declined 4.1% and the value of inventories fell slightly to $110 billion from $112.8 billion. Spending on structures such as oil platforms fell 1.6%, largely because of the drop in oil prices. The story on the economy remains consistent: strong consumption, …

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Financial Review

Solid Guesses

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-29-2015.mp3 Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB) Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSS Financial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 121 = 17,751 SPX + 15 = 2108 NAS + 22 = 5111 10 YR YLD + .03 = 2.28% OIL + .91 = 48.89 GOLD + 1.20 = 1097.70 SILV + .13 = 14.91   The Federal Reserve FOMC meeting wrapped up earlier today. They issued a statement but there was no press conference. The Fed did not change monetary policy; no surprise, nobody expected a change from this meeting. The next FOMC meeting is in September and we might see changes then, or maybe December. There really weren’t many clues in the statement. There were a few subtle changes in wording of the statement; specifically on jobs, the Fed said: “The labor market continued to improve, with solid job gains and declining unemployment. On balance, a range of labor market indicators suggests that underutilization of labor resources has diminished since early this year.” “Solid job gains” is a fairly strong phrase for the Fed. No indication of slack in the labor market.   The actual decision to raise rates will come when the Fed sees “some” further improvement in the labor market. The word “some” was new. What does “some” mean? You can give it whatever meaning you want but I think it means the labor market is headed in the right direction and as long as it stays on the tracks and …

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Financial Review

Step 9

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-28-2015.mp3 Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB) Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSS Financial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 189 = 17,630 SPX + 25 =  2093 NAS + 49 = 5089 10 YR YLD + .02 = 2.25% OIL + .59 = 47.98 GOLD + 1.00 = 1096.50 SILV + .14 = 14.79   The Federal Reserve FOMC met today. They will meet again tomorrow and then they will issue a statement.  Investors are not expecting any major decisions this week, but they will be looking for hints on the Fed’s timing for possible future movements. While consensus for a rate rise is leaning towards September, the wild card is now China. A growing number of market watchers are suggesting that, before the year is out, two interest rate hikes rather than just one could be on the cards. In the Treasury market, futures contracts suggested that investors were making the same mistake they made at the outset of the last three major tightening cycles, by underestimating the amount the federal funds rate will be raised. The implied rate on September 2016 contracts is 0.8 percent, while many forecasts are looking at 1.5 percent to 2 percent.     Chinese shares whip-sawed between gains and losses today, as Beijing renewed its pledge to prop up an equities market. The 144 Chinese companies with primary stock listings in the US have erased nearly $40 billion in paper wealth since the Shanghai Composite peaked in mid-June; a 30% drop. …

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Financial Review

Risk Off

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-27-2015.mp3 Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB) Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSS Financial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 127 = 17,440 SPX – 12 = 2067 NAS – 48 = 5039 10 YR YLD – .04 = 2.23% OIL – .75 = 47.39 GOLD – 5.00 = 1095.50 SILV – .20 = 14.64   Chinese stocks fell sharply today. The Shanghai Composite fell 8.5% to record its largest one-day drop since June 2007, and the Shenzhen A-shares index lost 7% of its value. Weak manufacturing data revealed that profit at the country’s industrial firms dropped 0.3% in June from a year earlier, but the markets appear to be responding to government attempts to stabilize the country’s volatile stock markets; it seems like the Chinese government’s heavy-handed intervention measures are spooking investors. The fear is that the government will withdraw stimulus measures, and once the support disappears, the market won’t be able to stand on its own. In a way, the investors might be front-running the government; getting out before stimulus dries up.   Commodity prices resumed their downward spiral with the CRB commodities index hitting its lowest levels in six years and oil prices hitting a four-month low. Nine of the 10 major S&P 500 sectors were lower with the energy index leading the decliners. Stocks came off session lows in the close. The S&P 500 dipped below its 200-day moving average of 2,064 and closed a few points above it. The energy sector was …

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Author Interviews

Scott Barnett

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SCOTT_BARNETT-SEG_1-07-20-2015.mp3 Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB) Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSS Sinclair Noe audio interview with Scott Barnett, author of “Gumption: Taking Bubba Gump from Movie to Restaurant”

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Author Interviews

Kenneth Kim

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/KEN_KIM-SEG_1-07-17-2015.mp3 Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB) Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSS Sinclair Noe audio interview with Kenneth Kim, author of “Mutual Funds Exposed : What You Don’t Know May Be Hazardous to Your Wealth”

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Author Interviews

Carrie Morgridge

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/CARRIE_MORGRIDGE-07-03-2015.mp3 Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 19:50 — 9.1MB) Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSS Sinclair Noe audio interview with Carrie Morgridge, author of “Every Gift Matters: How Your Passion Can Change the World”.

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Financial Review

Glitch/Print

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-24-2015.mp3 Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB) Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSS Financial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 163 = 17,568 SPX – 22 = 2079 NAS – 57 = 5088 10 YR YLD un 2.27% OIL – .31 = 48.14 GOLD + 9.10 = 1100.50 SILV + .08 = 14.84   Well, this turned out to be an ugly week. The Dow lost 600 points from the high a week ago. The Dow lost 2.8% on the week, dropping below its 200 day moving average. The S&P lost 2.1%; Nasdaq down 2.2%. The Russell 3000 was down 3.1% for the week. Amazon gave back about half of yesterday’s gain. Crude oil hit a 4-month low.   And if you are not quite sure what to make of the markets, that is understandable; they aren’t going up and they aren’t going down, we are in a sideways market; this might be the mother of all sideways markets. The Dow is in slightly negative territory year to date. The Dow has moved on either side of breakeven 21 times so far this year. According to research from Bespoke Investment, no other year has been so fickle, the closest being the 20 times the blue chip index swung in both 1934 and 1994. The S&P 500 went through the first half of the year without moving more than 3.5 percent in either direction.   Hedge funds are holding the first ever bet on a decline …

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Financial Review

Rockets and Rocks

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-23-2015.mp3 Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB) Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSS Financial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 119 = 17,731 SPX – 12 = 2102 NAS – 25 = 5146 10 YR YLD – .05 = 2.27% OIL – .74 = 48.45 GOLD – 3.60 = 1091.40 SILV – .14 = 14.76   Greece can begin bailout talks. Greece’s parliament approved new reforms that pave the way for Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras to begin negotiating his country’s third bailout. Parliament overwhelmingly approved the measures, but roughly a quarter of Tsipras’ Syriza party voted against the reforms. Now Greece and its creditors will begin working out the details of the latest bailout package, the third for Athens in the past five years. Nearly everyone agrees that Greek debt is unsustainably high, but that’s where the agreement ends. The IMF on July 14th issued a report calling for debt relief, a 180 turn from their earlier demands of austerity. The monetary fund recommended either a “very dramatic extension” of payment deadlines by up to 30 years or “deep upfront haircuts,” banker jargon for write-offs.   Lots of headlines flew out of Asia  overnight: Japan’s exports increased the most in five months in June, fueled by strengthening overseas demand, but imports remained subdued due to the effect of lower commodity prices. South Korea’s economy logged its weakest expansion in six years in Q2, recording just 0.3% growth from the previous quarter, as the country got battered by …

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Financial Review

Casino Mentality

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-22-2015.mp3 Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB) Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSS Financial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 68 = 17,851 SPX – 5 = 2114 NAS – 36 = 5171 10 YR YLD – .02 = 2.32% OIL – 1.62 = 49.24 GOLD – 7.00 = 1095.00 SILV – .05 = 14.90   As of today, Wall Street will have to comply with the “Volcker rule,” which bans taxpayer-insured banks from making bets with their own money. Although major financial institutions have fought for years to change the rule, they have for the most part fallen in line – shedding their proprietary-trading desks, pulling money from certain investment funds and ceasing other speculative activities. The new rule has also changed much of the industry. The five largest U.S. investment banks cut staff on bond sales and trading desks by 18% from 2011 to 2014, while 1,428 new hedge funds were launched during the same period.   Greek MPs are debating a second set of reforms they need to approve to secure a €86 billion-euro bailout, as thousands protest against further austerity measures. The protest outside parliament briefly turned violent. Earlier, Greece’s PM urged rebels within his own Syriza party to support the reforms demanded by creditors. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank has increased its cash lifeline to Greek banks with an emergency injection of an extra €900 million-euro, the ECB’s second in a week, coming just hours before the vote.   The National …

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