Financial Review

Financial Engineers at the Gate

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Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB) Financial Review DOW + 215 = 16,614 SPX + 37 = 1941 NAS + 103 = 4419 10 YR YLD + .03 = 2.21% OIL + .64 = 82.55 GOLD + 2.50 = 1250.40 SILV + .09 = 17.62 In economic news, the National Association of Realtors reports sales of existing homes rose 2.4% in September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.17 million, hitting the fastest pace in one year and rebounding from an unexpected drop in August. However, September’s pace of sales was down 1.7% from a year earlier. So, the housing market isn’t roaring, but lower interest rates managed to pull some buyers off the sidelines last month. Low interest rates are just part of the equation in the housing market; buyers also need to be employed. The Labor Department today released state unemployment numbers, and in 15 states, the unemployment rate is now under 5%; that list includes: North Dakota at 2.8%, South Dakota at 3.4%, Utah 3.5%, and Nebraska, Minnesota, Hawaii, New Hampshire, Vermont, Idaho, Iowa, Montana, Dolorado, Oklahoma, Wyoming, and Kansas. Georgia has the highest unemployment rate at 7.9%. Arizona made the bottom 10 with a 6.9% unemployment rate, a full percentage point higher than the national average. Reuters reported the European Central Bank was looking at buying corporate bonds as soon as December in its efforts to revive the Eurozone economy. The move to buy corporate debt reinforced the idea that …

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Financial Review

A Tale of Three Stocks

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Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB) Financial Review DOW + 19 = 16,339 SPX + 17 = 1904 NAS + 57 = 4316 10 YR YLD – .02 = 2.18% OIL – .21 = 81.85 GOLD + 8.70 = 1247.90 SILV + .16 = 17.53 A nice bounce in the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq Composite. For most of the session, the Dow was in negative territory, clawing its way to positive, barely. There are 3 stocks that had a compelling story today. We start with IBM, which reported its third-quarter results; a 10th consecutive period of falling sales, marked by weaker performance in growth markets. IBM said its long-standing forecast of earnings per share of $20 for 2015 is no longer achievable. IBM lowered its forecast for free cash flow. The company said it was selling its money-losing chip-making business to GlobalFoundries, a move to further cut costs and focus on its more profitable, faster-growing businesses. Once upon a time, IBM was a pioneer in advancing semiconductor technology, its manufacturing capability fell behind others that produced chips in large volume, but now they will have to pay GlobalFoundries $1.5 billion to take the chip division, while taking a $4.7 billion charge. IBM has been divesting slower-growing and unprofitable businesses, but like many older tech companies, it is caught in the middle; sloughing off the old and expensive without yet having a foothold in the new. Some customers are trying to move more of …

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Author Interviews

Tom Sturges

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Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 19:50 — 9.1MB) Listen to the author interview. Click the banner to buy the book. Every Idea Is a Good Idea: Be Creative Anytime, Anywhere by Tom Sturges. Access a level of creativity you never thought possible, using techniques Tom Sturges—former head of creative at Universal Music Publishing Group—learned in his 25-plus years in the music industry. Everyone is innately creative. But many of us—especially those trying to develop careers in music and the arts—wish we knew how to better tap into our creative potential. Is there a way to more easily connect with the part of our minds that knows how to complete a song, finish a poem, or solve a problem? Music industry veteran Tom Sturges argues that there is. Sturges—who, in his 25-plus-year career, has worked with artists including Carole King, Paul Simon, Elton John, Neil Young, Foo Fighters, Red Hot Chili Peppers, Smashing Pumpkins and Outkast—has developed dependable techniques to help you recognize and harness your own creative power, whenever and wherever you need it Get insight and knowledge of the creative process from Sir Paul McCartney and other. . Every Idea Is a Good Idea invites readers to find the pathway to their own creative endeavors.

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Author Interviews

Erin Arvedlund

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Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 19:50 — 9.1MB) Listen to the author interview. Click the banner to buy the book. Open Secret: The Global Banking Conspiracy That Swindled Investors Out of Billions by Erin Arvedlund “Gaming the LIBOR—that is, fixing the price of money—had become just that: a game. Playing it was the price of admission to a club of men who socialized together, skied in Europe courtesy of brokers and expense accounts, and reaped million-dollar bonuses.” In the midst of the financial crisis of 2008, rumors swirled that a sinister scandal was brewing deep in the heart of London. Some suspected that behind closed doors, a group of chummy young bankers had been cheating the system through interest rate machinations. But with most eyes focused on the crisis rippling through Wall Street and the rest of the world, the story remained an “open secret” among competitors. Soon enough, the scandal became public and dozens of bankers and their bosses were caught red-handed. Several major banks and hedge funds were manipulating and misreporting their daily submission of the London Interbank Offered Rate, better known as the LIBOR. As the main interest rate that pulses through the banking community, the LIBOR was supposed to represent the average rate banks charge each other for loans, effectively setting short-term interest rates around the world for trillions of dollars in financial contracts. But the LIBOR wasn’t an average; it was a combination of guesswork and outright lies told by scheming bankers …

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Financial Review

Floors and Ceilings

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Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB) Financial Review DOW + 263 = 16,380 SPX + 24 = 1886 NAS + 41 = 4258 10 YR YLD + .05 = 2.20% OIL + .27 = 82.97 GOLD – .70 = 1239.20 SILV – .10 = 17.37 The markets were down for the week, even with the bounce today. For the week, the Dow and the S&P each dropped about 1%; the Dow was down 164 points on the week, and the S&P was down 20 points. The S&P is now down for 4 consecutive weeks. Let’s take a look at the charts. Earlier in the week I talked about support and resistance. Someone mentioned to me that they weren’t quite clear on the concept. So, here is a good way to look at these topics. Support is the floor and resistance is the ceiling. Think of a chart as a staircase under construction. The stairs are being built, hopefully higher and higher, and to prop up the stairs, you have to have a structure, or floors and ceilings. When you break through the ceiling to a new higher level, that ceiling then becomes the floor for the next level up. In other words, resistance becomes support. If the staircase of price falls, the last floor will catch you, or provide support. Then to go higher yet again, you will have to punch through that ceiling, or resistance, again. So, let’s look at support and resistance for …

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Financial Review

Behind the Curtain

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Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB) Financial Review DOW – 24 = 16,117 SPX + 0.27 = 1862 NAS + 2 = 4217 10 YR YLD + .06 = 2.15% OIL + 1.16 = 82.94 GOLD – 2.20 = 1239.90 SILV – .08 = 17.47 The Dow is down for a sixth consecutive session. We started the morning down almost 200 points, so there is that. Part of yesterday’s volatility is being blamed on mini-flash crashes; 179 to be precise. Basically the high frequency traders yank their bids, as their algorithms try to catch up with big moves. It isn’t really a flash crash so much as a lack of liquidity. Take a deep breath. Think about how you are invested. Consider whether you are diversified across asset classes. The market has not collapsed. It has gone down in a fairly fast and furious manner, but it has not collapsed. What will happen next? Will the market bounce back? Will it go sideways? Will the pullback continue and become really painful? You don’t know; I don’t know; the market doesn’t know; nobody knows. Take a deep breath, consider where you are and where you want to be in the future. The stock market is always a gamble. Maybe you want to gamble with a part of your money, and that’s fine. Maybe you are tired of gambling and want to find something safer; that’s cool, too. Just understand what you’re doing. The volatility of the …

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Financial Review

Third World Stuff

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Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB) Financial Review DOW – 173 = 16,141 SPX – 15 = 1862 NAS – 11 = 4215 10 YR YLD – .11 = 2.09% OIL – .13 = 81.71 GOLD + 8.90 = 1242.10 SILV + .05 = 17.55 Go back a mere 18 trading sessions and the market was at all-time highs. The Dow hit an intraday high of 17,350 and a closing high of 17,279, on September 19th; that was 18 trading sessions in the past. For the Nasdaq composite we have seen a 10% correction from recent highs. That means this drop happened fast, and it also means the bear may have more room to run; this move is not mature in terms of duration or magnitude. The major indices have dropped under the 200 day moving average; we were waiting for confirmation; we got it. The S&P looked to bounce off a different trendline. If you draw a straight line across the S&P lows beginning with the lows from 2011, which is where we saw support and a bounce today, at the 1820 level; it is also very close to the support levels from April at about 1815, which we talked about on Monday. That is an intermediate level of support, but it held today, and you have to respect the line, unless or until it breaks down. Once we hit certain levels, people start to feel the pain and they move to safety; it …

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Financial Review

Double Irish With a Side of Knowledge Box

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Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:17 — 6.1MB) Financial Review DOW – 5 = 16,315 SPX + 2 = 1877 NAS + 13 = 4227 10 YR YLD – .08 = 2.20% OIL – 3.76 = 81.98 GOLD – 4.90 = 1233.20 SILV – .11 = 17.49 The Dow was down slightly, while the S&P and Nasdaq snapped a 3 day slide, but this was almost a quiet day; call it neutral. A follow-up on yesterday’s discussion of the 200 day moving average. The S&P 500 dropped down to the 200 day moving average on Friday (right around 1905), and then fell right through the trend line yesterday. We talked about the possibility of a bounce; and I don’t think today’s minor move qualifies as a bounce, even though it was a positive move. So, we are still waiting for a possible bounce. The 200 day moving average is a lagging indicator, and so for now, the trend line is still moving higher; which increases the prospects for a bounce. When the price drops below a declining 200 day moving average, it is considered extremely bearish and the probability of a bounce is very low. So, we wait for confirmation. It is earnings reporting season, and today’s reports feature the banks. We start with JPMorgan Chase, the nation’s largest bank by assets, reporting third quarter net income of $5.6 billion, or $1.36 per share, a big improvement from the same period last year, when the bank’s legal …

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Author Interviews

Daniel Isenberg

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Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 19:49 — 9.1MB) Listen to the Author [powwerpress] Click the banner to buy the book. Worthless, Impossible and Stupid: How Contrarian Entrepreneurs Create and Capture Extraordinary Value by Daniel Isenberg Daniel Isenberg presents a completely novel way to approach business building—with the insights and lessons learned from a worldwide cast of entrepreneurial characters. Not bound by a western, Silicon Valley stereotype, this group of courageous and energetic doers has created a global and diverse mix of companies destined to become tomorrow’s leading organizations. Worthless, Impossible, and Stupid is about how enterprising individuals from around the world see hidden value in situations where others do not, use that perception to develop products and services that people initially don’t think they want, and ultimately go on to realize extraordinary value for themselves, their customers, and society as a whole. What these business builders have in common is a contrarian mind-set that allows them to create opportunities and succeed where others see nothing. Amazingly, this process repeats itself in one form or another countless times a day all over the world. From Albuquerque to Islamabad, you will travel with Isenberg to discover unusual yet practical insights that you can use in your own business. Meet the founders of Grameenphone in Bangladesh, PACIV in Puerto Rico, Sea to Table in New York, Actavis in Iceland, Studio Moderna in Slovenia, Hartwell Metals in Hong Kong and Southeast Asia, Given Imaging in Israel, WildChina in China, and many …

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Author Interviews

Robert Cialdini – Noah Goldstein

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Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 19:49 — 9.1MB) Listen to the author click the banner to buy the book. The small BIG: small changes that spark big influence by Robert Cialdini, Noah Goldstein, and Steve J. Martin At some point today you will have to influence or persuade someone – your boss, a co-worker, a customer, client, spouse, your kids, or even your friends. What is the smallest change you can make to your request, proposal or situation that will lead to the biggest difference in the outcome? In The small BIG, three heavyweights from the world of persuasion science and practice — Steve Martin, Noah Goldstein and Robert Cialdini — describe how, in today’s information overloaded and stimulation saturated world, increasingly it is the small changes that you make that lead to the biggest differences. In the last few years more and more research – from fields such as neuroscience, cognitive psychology, social psychology, and behavioral economics – has helped to uncover an even greater understanding of how influence, persuasion and behavior change happens. Increasingly we are learning that it is not information per se that leads people to make decisions, but the context in which that information is presented. Drawing from extensive research in the new science of persuasion, the authors present lots of small changes (over 50 in fact) that can bring about momentous shifts in results. It turns out that anyone can significantly increase his or her ability to influence and persuade others, …

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