Financial Review

Thursday Jobs Report

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-02-2015.mp3 Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB) Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSS Financial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 27 = 17,730 SPX – 0.64 = 2076 NAS – 3 = 5009 10 YR YLD – .02 = 2.39% OIL – .03 = 56.93 GOLD – 2.60 = 1166.70 SILV + .13 = 15.78   Normally, we get the jobs report on the first Friday of the month, but the stock and bond markets will be closed tomorrow for the 4th of  July holiday; so, it’s a Jobs Report Thursday.   The US economy created 223,000 new jobs in June. The unemployment rate dropped from 5.5% to 5.3%; that’s the lowest level in 7 years. Employment gains for May and April were revised lower by a combined 60,000.  Most estimates were calling for 225,000 new jobs last month, so today’s report was right in line. Total employment is now 3.5 million above the previous peak.  Total employment is up 12.2 million from the employment recession low. The economy has produced at least 200,000 jobs in 13 of the last 15 months.  The economy added 2.9 million jobs in the past 12 months.   The participation rate – the percentage of workers in a job or actively seeking a job – dropped three ticks to 62.6%, as 432,000 people dropped out of the labor pool. And this explains why the unemployment rate dropped to 5.3%, because fewer people were looking for work.  Part of the reason …

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Financial Review

The Greek Unknown

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-01-2015.mp3 Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB) Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSS Financial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 138 = 17,757 SPX + 14 = 2077 NAS + 26 = 5013 10 YR YLD + .09 = 2.42% OIL – .02 = 56.94 GOLD – 4.30 = 1169.30 SILV – .12 = 15.65   Let’s start today with some economic data. ADP reports private-sector hiring picked up in June, as employers added 237,000 jobs. The monthly jobs report from the Labor Department will be released tomorrow; it includes private sector plus government jobs. The consensus guestimate is for about 225,000 new jobs last month.   Construction spending rose 0.8% in May to a seasonally adjusted $1.04 trillion. Spending rose 0.3% for residential projects, and 1.5% for nonresidential projects. The Commerce Department revised April’s result to 2.1%.   Manufacturers grew in June at the fastest rate since the start of 2015. The Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing index rose to 53.5% last month from 52.8% in May, matching its highest level of this year. Readings over 50% indicate more companies are expanding instead of shrinking. The employment gauge jumped 3.8 points to 55.5%. The ISM’s new-orders index edged up to 56.0% from 55.8%.   The second and final Markit reading of U.S. manufacturing conditions in June was revised up to 53.6 from a preliminary 53.4, but the index was still at its lowest level since October 2013.   Overnight, Greece defaulted on its …

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Financial Review

Spend Your Time Wisely

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-30-2015.mp3 Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB) Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSS Financial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 23 = 17,619 SPX + 5 = 2063 NAS + 28 = 4986 10 YR YLD un = 2.33% OIL + 1.14 = 59.47 GOLD – 7.50 = 1173.60 SILV – .09 = 15.77   Today marks the end of the second quarter; we are halfway through the year. The stock market has been trading in an extremely tight range. After a weak January and a rebound in February, the major indices have moved sideways for 4 months. The Dow Industrials are down 204 points for the first half; the Nasdaq Composite is up 250 points for the first six months; the S&P 500 gained 5 points year to date. The S&P 500 is in the tightest trading range for the first half of a year in more than 2 decades. At some point it will break up or break down; as it is 2015 marks the worst first half of a year for the S&P 500 since 2010.   For the month of June, the Dow fell 2.2 percent, the S&P 500 fell 2.1 percent and the Nasdaq fell 1.6 percent. For the second quarter, the Dow fell 0.9 percent, the S&P 500 fell 0.2 percent. For the Dow and the S&P, that snaps a string of 9 consecutive quarters of gains. The Nasdaq rose 1.8 percent in its tenth straight quarterly advance. During the quarter, the Nasdaq hit its first …

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Financial Review

Pick Your Poison

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-29-2015.mp3 Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB) Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSS Financial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 350 = 17,596 SPX – 43 = 2057 NAS – 122 = 4958 10 YR YLD – .15 = 2.33% OIL – 1.30 = 58.33 GOLD + 5.90 = 1181.10 SILV + .01 = 15.86   Late Friday, Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras called for a July 5 referendum on whether to accept the latest offer from Greece’s creditors. That meant that Greece would not pay $1.8 billion to the Troika due tomorrow. The European Central Bank responded by halting emergency lending to Greek banks.  With emergency aid to the country frozen, Athens has imposed capital controls to halt bank runs and confirmed that the country’s banks would remain shut for six working days; Greek banks are closed and the Greek stock market is closed, possibly until the July 5 referendum. ATM withdrawals are being capped at €60-euro-per-day.   We’ve been watching the problems in Greece for a long time. A few years ago, we knew Greece had a debt problem; that was back when they were lumped together with Portugal, Italy, Ireland, and Spain. They were called the PIIGS. The Troika of the European Central Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and the European Monetary Union, decided to crack down on the PIIGS; prescribing a big dose of austerity; the cure has been debilitating. Spain is dealing with 22% unemployment, Italy with 12.4% joblessness, Portugal …

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Financial Review

Dignity

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-26-2015.mp3 Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB) Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSS Financial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 56= 17,946 SPX – 0.82 = 2101 NAS – 31 = 5080 10 YR YLD + .08 = 2.48% OIL – .07 = 59.63 GOLD + 1.30 = 1175.20 SILV – .09 = 15.85   For the week, both the Dow and S&P 500 fell 0.4 percent while the Nasdaq fell 0.7 percent. Nike rose 4.3 percent to $109.71 and was the biggest boost to the Dow after reporting a better-than-expected quarterly profit, lifted as it sold more high-margin shoes and apparel at higher prices.   Micron Technology sank 18 percent to $19.66 a day after forecasting a further decline in prices of chips used in personal computers. It also gave a revenue outlook for the current quarter that was well below market estimates. The PHLX Semiconductor index (SOX) fell 2.4 percent.   The Supreme Court has ruled that same sex couples have a constitutional right to marry nationwide. Voting 5-4, the justices said states lack any legitimate reason to deprive gay couples of the freedom to marry. The ruling in support of marriage equality was widely expected, given the Supreme Court’s previous ruling on the issue. In June 2014, the Supreme Court overturned the 1996 Defense of Marriage Act, opening up federal benefits to same-sex married couples. It heard two cases: Hollingsworth v. Perry, the successful challenge to California’s Proposition 8 measure, a 2008 ballot …

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Financial Review

Applesauce

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-25-2015.mp3 Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB) Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSS Financial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 75 = 17,890 SPX – 6 = 2102 NAS – 10 = 5112 10 YR YLD + .02 = 2.39% OIL – .57 = 59.70 GOLD – 2.10 = 1173.90 SILV – .04 = 15.94   The Supreme Court ruled to save subsidies for as many as 8 million people under the Affordable Care Act. In the case of King v. Burwell, justices determined that the subsidies should be available in states that don’t have their own exchanges. The court determined that the broader context of the ACA allows subsidies to all those under the Obamacare program. Justices voted 6-3 in favor of upholding the subsidies with Chief Justice John Roberts and swing vote Justice Anthony Kennedy joining the majority.   Obamacare, technically titled The Affordable Care Act, gave states the option to build their own healthcare marketplaces or simply use one operated by the federal government. In all, 34 states decided to rely on the federal “exchange.” And about 8 million low- to moderate-income Americans are now receiving subsidies of on average $260 a month through the federal exchange. But in a lawsuit challenging the law, critics insisted the federal government is not allowed to subsidize insurance in states that rejected their own exchange for the federal system. Those critics based their argument on a single phrase in Obamacare that refers only to participants …

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Financial Review

Sorry McFly

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-24-2015.mp3 Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB) Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSS Financial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 178 = 17,966 SPX – 15 = 2108 NAS – 37 = 5122 10 YR YLD – .04 = 2.37% OIL – .74 = 60.27 GOLD – 3.00 = 1179.00 SILV + .04 = 15.98   The American economy shrank in the first quarter by a smaller amount than previously reported. Gross domestic product declined by 0.2% annual rate from January to March. Previously the Commerce Department had estimated a seasonally adjusted 0.7% drop. This is the third and final revision to first quarter GDP; so this final estimate, while still negative, isn’t as bad as we thought.  Household spending was revised up to 2.1% from 1.8%. Consumers spent more at restaurants and on transportation.  Private sector investment also rose a bit more, up 2.4% vs. a prior 0.7% estimate; and digging deeper, most of the move in private investment came from residential investment – up 6.5% in the final reading. Now this indicates signs of life in the housing market, but we still aren’t seeing enough in the way of business investment. Companies seem to have piles of cash and all they do is buy back their own stock.   Inflation as measured by the PCE price index fell at a 2% annual rate. The core rate that excludes food and energy was up 0.8% in the same span, well below the Federal Reserve’s …

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Author Interviews

Philip Kotler

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/PHILIP_KOTLER-06-19-2015.mp3 Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 19:50 — 9.1MB) Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSS Sinclair Noe audio interview with Philip Kotler, author of: “Confronting Capitalism: Real Solutions for a Troubled Economic System”

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Financial Review

Undo Send

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-23-2015.mp3 Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB) Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSS Financial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 24 = 18,144 SPX + 1 = 2124 NAS + 6 = 5160 10 YR YLD + .05 = 2.41% OIL + .33 = 61.01 GOLD – 7.90 = 1179.00 SILV – .33 = 15.94   This was a flat day on Wall Street. Most of the session saw the major averages hovering around breakeven. The Nasdaq Composite eked out another record high. The economic news was mixed; durable goods orders were weak but new home sales were fairly strong. While stocks have been trading in a very tight range to start the year, some might call it boring. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index hasn’t posted a gain or loss of 2 percent or more for 126 days, the longest streak since one ending in February 2007. Meanwhile, the bond market has been pretty exciting but not in a good way. Longer-dated Treasuries have been jumping all over the place, posting some of the biggest back-to-back gains and losses on record as the Federal Reserve talks about raising interest rates and European leaders act out a Greek tragedy.   The bond market is supposed to be a safe haven, and so bond investors have pulled $327 million from exchange-traded funds focused on this longer-dated debt in the past week alone, and $1.4 billion year-to-date.   The Commerce Department says non-defense capital goods orders excluding …

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Financial Review

A Spidey Monday

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-22-2015.mp3 Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB) Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSS Financial Review by Sinclair Noe   DOW + 103 = 18,119 SPX + 12 = 2122 NAS + 36 = 5153 10 YR YLD + 9 = 2.36% OIL + .07 = 59.68 GOLD – 14.40 = 1186.90 SILV + .09 = 16.27   The Nasdaq Composite set a new closing and intraday record, topping the highs set on Thursday. The Russell 2000 gained 7 to close at 1292, a record high. The S&P 500 is a stone’s throw from record highs at 2130. Eurozone leaders are held an emergency summit today to “urgently discuss the situation of Greece at the highest political level.” The summit comes just eight days before Athens needs to make a crucial €1.6-billion-euro payment to the IMF. Over the weekend, Greek PM Alexis Tsipras submitted a new reforms package to foreign creditors, signaling eleventh-hour concessions to avoid a possible default. The Greek government said its proposals included steps to eliminate early retirement options, hike the sales tax, increase tax surcharges that middle- and high-income earners pay and to introduce a levy on companies with annual net income of more than about $570,000.   Eurozone finance ministers welcomed the Greek proposals for a cash-for-reform deal but said they required detailed study and it would take several days to determine whether they can lead to an agreement to avert a default. The ministers agreed to reconvene later this week. And even …

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