Financial Review

Proportional Response

Play

Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB) Financial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 421 = 17,778 SPX + 48 = 2061 NAS + 104 = 4748 10 YR YLD + .05 = 2.20% OIL – 1.88 = 54.59 GOLD + 9.00 = 1198.90 SILV + .13 = 15.98 If you were waiting for confirmation, you got it. The major indices went through about 7 days of doom and gloom. Maybe this has something to do with the Federal Reserve’s FOMC statement yesterday. The central bank said in its official statement Wednesday it would “be patient” in deciding when to start raising interest rates from near zero. But then it added that it sees “this guidance as consistent with its previous statement” pledging to keep rates very low for “considerable time.” When asked what “patient” meant, Chairwoman Yellen said the Fed would not begin hiking rates for “a couple” of meetings. Pressed further, she confirmed “a couple” means two. But I’m not sure whether it was hawkish or dovish; more likely it was just a continuation. Here’s my guess and it is only a guess because I don’t know and probably nobody knows. My guess is that a lot of money has come out of oil lately and now that money is moving back into stocks. It’s the buy on the dip mentality, with a little sector rotation on the side. Whatever it was, it was the best day for the S&P 500 this year. The …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Have a Cigar

Play

Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB) Financial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 288 = 17,356 SPX + 40 = 2012 NAS + 96 = 4644 10 YR YLD + .08 = 2.15% OIL + .06 = 55.94 GOLD – 6.10 = 1189.90 SILV + .03 = 15.85 I have been telling you for a few years now that the Fed is a vital force in the stock market. I have talked about how the stock market has advanced along with the Fed’s balance sheet. Today absolutely confirms what I’ve been telling you. Most major indices started the day a little higher, and then jumped following the Fed’s FOMC statement and again during Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s press conference. At one point the Dow Industrial Average was up about 300 points; and then people started to digest what was being said; which is what we will do right now.

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Some Perspective on the Markets

Play

Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB) Financial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 111 = 17,068 SPX – 16 = 1972 NAS – 57 = 4547 10 YR YLD – .04 = 2.07% OIL – .58 = 55.33 GOLD + 1.50 = 1196.00 SILV – .47 = 15.82 Allow me to provide some perspective. On December 5th the S&P 500 index hit an intraday high of 2079 and a closing high of 2075. That was 7 trading session in the past, which may be a long time if you are trading on the minute bars, but in the grander scheme of things it was just a few days ago. The downturn has been fast and sharp, as downturns are want to be. This downturn has lopped about 90 points off the S&P, or about a 4.3%; which does not qualify as a correction and certainly not a crash, but it does catch your attention.

READ MORE →
Financial Review

At Least it Wasn’t a 100 Point Drop

Play

Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB) Financial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW -99.99 = 17,180 SPX – 12 = 1989 NAS – 48 = 4605 10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.11% OIL – 2.53 = 55.28 GOLD – 28.30 = 1194.50 SILV – .85 = 16.29 The S&P 500 index traded below its 50 day moving average for the first time since the end of October. At its session low, the S&P 500 was down about 5 percent from its record intraday high hit earlier this month but up more than 8 percent from a low hit in October. Oil continues to be a drag on the stock market, and West Texas Intermediate hit a 5 ½ year low; now down right at 50% from the highs of June. OPEC’s Secretary General reiterated the oil producing organization will not cut production despite the current low prices and glut of supply coming out of the US and elsewhere. That’s leaving supply plentiful and prices low even as demand has been waning. We have seen the lower prices at the pump and that basically means everybody gets a break, a few extra dollars in your pocket. That’s a good thing. So, why is the stock market reacting badly to lower oil prices? Quite simply there are a lot of companies involved in the energy sector, and that is where we get the drag. Also, the decline in oil prices alongside other economically sensitive commodities, including copper, …

READ MORE →
Author Interviews

William Gladstone

Play

Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 19:50 — 9.1MB) Listen to Sinclair Noe interview author William Gladstone The Complete Master Key System: Using the Classic Work to Discover Prosperity, Joy, and Fulfillment by Willima Gladstone The Complete Master Key System builds on the classic work of Charles Haanel to teach contemporary audiences how to tap into their personal potential and manifest harmony, abundance, and fulfillment. Published in 1912, The Master Key System went on to influence Ernest Holmes, Napoleon Hill, and many others who sought to use mental power as a means of attaining success. In The Complete Master Key System, William Gladstone, Richard Greninger, and John Selby hark back to Charles Haanel’s original text, and develop exercises that heighten readers’ ability to implement Haanel’s core principles. Their Daily Manifestation Sessions incorporate the most effective focusing methods used today and integrate ancient meditative techniques with new insights in cognitive psychology. The Complete Master Key System is packaged with Haanel’s original Master Key System in the appendix and includes a foreword by Mark Victor Hansen and an afterword by Jack Canfield.

READ MORE →
Author Interviews

Gerald Celente

Play

Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 19:50 — 9.1MB) Listen to the audio interview with Gerald Celente and Sinclair Noe www.TrendsJournal.com Gerald Celente, who developed the Globalnomic® methodology to identify, track, forecast and manage trends, is a political atheist. Unencumbered by political dogma, rigid ideology or conventional wisdom, Celente, whose motto is “think for yourself,” observes and analyzes the current events forming future trends for what they are — not for the way he wants them to be. What Zizi Gave Honeyboy A True Story about Love, Wisdom, and the Soul of America by Gerald Celente Celente, a top trends analyst featured in newspapers and on TV, was going through a painful divorce. Zizi, his 80-year-old aunt, had just lost her husband. They had already been close, but now they were spending much more time together and forming a special bond. Zizi’s endearing, homespun wisdom has been all but lost. Working through painful phlebitis in her legs, she continues to serve up huge Italian meals for Gerald and impart her thoughts on the sorry state of affairs of fractured families, the displaced and abandoned elderly, and the corrupt government that says it cares but does little. “Look at all these pills they want me to take,” she says. “What are they, crazy? If I took every one of them I’d either be a drug addict or I’d be dead.” As she looks back on missed opportunities, she tells Gerald, “Don’t save all your money for a rainy day, …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Something is Rotten

Play

Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB) Financial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 315 = 17,280 SPX – 33 = 2002 NAS – 54 = 4653 10 YR YLD – .08 = 2.10% OIL – 2.52 = 57.43 GOLD – 5.60 = 1222.80 SILV – .06 = 17.14 The fall in oil prices has been dramatic, now down almost 47% since June. Nobody was expecting it would fall that far that fast. Goldman was forecasting $85 oil for 2015 as recently as October 29. Crude-oil futures fell to their lowest since May 2009 on Friday, briefly dropping below $57 a barrel, after the International Energy Agency delivered the latest reduction in forecasts for global oil demand. On the week, oil futures have lost slightly more than 12%. So, oil is a bit oversold right here but it is never a good idea to try to catch a falling knife. And the whole drop just tells us that something is rotten in the markets. The fundamentals of oil have not changed in concert with the price. We don’t have double the oil we had in June. So why is the price cut in half? I know that’s overly simplistic, but either the market is too negative on energy, or it is not diligent enough in thinking about broader implications. Low prices lead to oil being left in the ground. Low oil prices lead to debt defaults. Low oil prices can lead to collapses of exporters. Benefits …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Before the Flood

Play

Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB) Financial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 63 = 17,596 SPX + 9 = 2035 NAS + 24 = 4708 10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.18% OIL – 1.22 = 59.72 GOLD + 1.30 = 1228.40 SILV + .04 = 17.20 We have a lot to cover. Let’s start with the economic news. The government reported early this morning that retail sales in November expanded at the fastest pace in eight months, rising 0.7%. A wide variety of retailers reported healthy sales last month. Retail sales growth hit 1.7% for autos, the most since August; and 1.2% for clothing, the most since April. Sales at building material and garden equipment stores jumped 1.4%, the most since April; while online or non-store retailers saw a 1% sales gain. The Commerce Department reports business inventories rose 0.2% in October, as building material and clothing stores both built stocks heading into the holiday season. That represents a 4.8% gain from October 2013. The number of people who applied for unemployment benefits hit the lowest level in three weeks, as employers continued to lay off very few workers. Initial claims for regular state unemployment-insurance benefits inched down by 3,000 to 294,000 in the week that ended Dec. 6. The prices paid for imported goods fell 1.5% in November, the largest drop since June 2012, dragged down by lower fuel prices. Excluding fuel, import prices declined by 0.2% last month. The price of …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Strange Bedfellows

Play

Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:17 — 6.1MB) Financial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 268 = 17,533 SPX – 33 = 2026 NAS – 82 = 4684 10 YR YLD – .05 = 2.17% OIL – 2.64 = 61.18 GOLD – 6.30 = 1227.10 SILV – -.05 = 17.16 Well, that was ugly. This is why we enjoy milk and cookies while we can. We’ve seen a lot of record highs in the major indices this year, but they remain rare birds. When we fall from record highs the drop can be fast, as it was today. The worst day since the start of October; wiping out gains from the past month. The month of December has brought positive returns to the Dow every single year for the last five consecutive years. As you might imagine, there’s a lot of pressure to make it six. And it might still happen, despite the past couple of days. Still it’s a good reminder to stay awake through the holidays, keep your stop loss in place, however you employ your stop loss; and if you don’t have a stop loss it is time to wake up and smell the coffee. Beyond that, it was just an ugly day, with decliners beating advancing issues 4 to 1. All 10 S&P industry sectors were down, with the energy sector down 3.3% as oil prices continue their slide. Brent crude dropped to $63.56, a 5 year low; and West Texas Intermediate dropping …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Divergence

Play

Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB) Financial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 51 = 17,801 SPX – 0.49 = 2059 NAS + 25 = 4766 10 YR YLD – .04 = 2.22% OIL + .80 = 63.85 GOLD + 27.80 = 1233.00 SILV + .73 = 17.21 We’ll start with economic news. The Labor Department reports there were 4.83 million job openings in October, up from 4.69 million job openings in September. The number of available jobs means workers are more likely to leave their current jobs in search of a better deal. The quit rate, the share of total employees opting to quit their jobs was 1.9% in October, roughly the same level it was just before 2007. With 9 million unemployed people in October, there were about 1.9 potential job seekers per opening. In October 2013, there were 11.14 million unemployed people or about 2.8 potential seekers per opening. The Commerce Department reports wholesale inventories increased 0.4%, despite an energy price-related decline in the value of petroleum stocks. September’s wholesale stocks were revised up to show a 0.4% gain. This might indicate that third quarter GDP could be revised slightly higher. The National Federation of Independent Business says small-business sentiment reached a seven-year high in November. The index rose 2 points to 98.1, the highest level since Feb. 2007, as expectations for business conditions in six months surged and expectations for real sales volumes also gained. While stocks have soared and GDP …

READ MORE →