Financial Review

Financial Review Market Scorecard 07-14-2014

DOW + 111 = 17,055 SPX + 9 = 1977 NAS + 24 = 4440 10 YR YLD + .03 = 2.55% OIL + .22 = 101.05 GOLD – 32 = 1307.80 SILV – .54 = 21.00

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Financial Review

Financial Review Market Scorecard

DOW + 28 = 16,943 SPX + 2 = 1967 NAS + 19 = 4415 10 YR YLD – .01 = 2.52% OIL – 2.44 = 100.49 GOLD + 3.70 = 1340.00 SILV + .03 = 21.55

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Financial Review

TGI Friday

  We start with a quick review of the global hotspots.   Israel and Gaza are throwing missiles at each other. Israel has better offense and defense. Approximately 100 Palestinians have died in the bombing; one Israeli has died in the missile attacks. President Obama has offered to negotiate a ceasefire but there isn’t much interest. Palestinian militants say they will fire missiles at Tel Aviv’s main airport. Israelis won’t rule out a ground war and vow the aerial assault will continue until quiet is restored.   Ukrainian President Poroshenko vowed to “find and destroy” pro-Russian rebels who killed 23 servicemen and wounded nearly 100 in a missile attack today. Kiev blames Moscow for fanning the violence and allowing fighters and high-powered weaponry to cross the frontier from Russia to Ukraine.   Kurdish forces seized two oilfields in northern Iraq and took over operations from a state-run oil company. Kurdish politicians formally suspended their participation in Iraqi government in Baghdad. An oil ministry spokesman in Baghdad described the takeover as dangerous and irresponsible. The Shi’ite run government of Prime Minister Maliki has been trying to cobble together a coalition government with very little success and it now appears the country has literally been divided into three states. Meanwhile, when the extremist Sunni faction known as ISIS took over the city of Mosul, they reportedly captured some radioactive materials, 40 kilos of uranium. The International Atomic Energy Agency says it is low grade and doesn’t pose a risk. I’m just guessing …

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Financial Review

Financial Review Market Scorecard 07-10-2014

    DOW – 70 – 16,915 SPX – 8 = 1964 NAS – 22 = 4396 10 YR YLD – .01 = 2.53% OIL + .59 = 102.88 GOLD + 8.70 = 1336.30 SILV + .32 = 21.52

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Financial Review

If It’s Not One Thing…

We start today with the hottest stock in the world: CYNK Technology, ticker CYNK.  It is a one person company, which has something to do with a website, with headquarters in Belize, maybe. There is no indication of revenue, possibly about a million in losses. It had been trading for a couple of pennies, and then for no apparent reason it started trading higher. After closing at 6 cents on May 15 it began its surge with a 3,650% jump to $2.25 on June 17. The stock climbed as much as 49% to $21.95 earlier today in over-the-counter trading on volume of more than 380,000 shares before erasing its gain to close down 5.5% to $13.90, and a market cap of a little more than $4 billion. How and why did this happen? Nobody seems to have an answer, but I think it would be a very, very bad idea to do anything with this stock, just to be clear.   Se nao e uma coisa e outra coisa.   Which is Portuguese for “if it’s not one thing, it’s another thing.”   I’m sure somebody in Lisbon was fully aware of what was going on, and they were waving their arms and screaming about the bank that was ready to implode; and nobody paid any attention because there was so much else happening around the world. Iraq is fractured, bombs are flying in Israel, Germany is expelling a US spy, the Italian economy looks wobbly, Libya, Ukraine, Nigeria, Thailand, …

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Financial Review

Financial Review Market Scorecard 07-09-2014

DOW + 78 = 16,985 SPX + 9 = 1972 NAS + 27 = 4419 10 YR YLD – .02 = 2.54% OIL – 1.46 = 101.94 GOLD + 7.00 = 1327.60 SILV + .08 = 21.10

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Financial Review

Waiting For Liftoff

  The Federal Reserve released the minutes of the most recent FOMC policy meeting from June 17-18.   The Fed is going to take away the punchbowl. As of October, no more punchbowl. That’s it, QE is drying up. I think we all knew that was coming. And then after the Fed stops buying Treasuries and mortgage backed securities, they will get around to probably raising their target on interest rates, but rates would remain near zero for a “considerable time” (probably the spring of 2015) after the Fed halts its program of bond purchases.   According to the minutes, there continues to be division over when the Fed should stop reinvesting proceeds of the $4.2 trillion in assets it purchased to support financial markets. Ending reinvestment will put the central bank’s balance sheet on a declining path, and some members argue that should not take place until interest rates have been increased. Fed officials also agreed that the rate of interest on excess reserves would play a “central role” in moving rates higher when the time comes.   And this is a fluid timeline for all this; it is partly dependent on “liftoff”; that’s the new word from the Fed – liftoff. At some point, the economy will slip the surly bonds of earth and wheel, soar, and swing high in the sunlit silence, and do a hundred things we haven’t dreamed of for such a long, long time. Someday, we’ll have liftoff.   The market players looked at …

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Financial Review

Financial Review Market Scorecard 07-08-2014

DOW – 117 = 16,906 SPX – 13 = 1963 NAS – 60 = 4391 10 YR YLD – .05 = 2.56% OIL – .13 = 103.40 GOLD – .40 = 1320.60 SILV – .03 = 21.12

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Financial Review

Everything Except Productive Purpose

  Down 2 days and already I’m seeing the financial talking heads asking if this is the start of a correction. Just a reminder that markets go up and down and sometimes sideways. The markets don’t need a big reason to move. Right now, we’re heading into earnings reporting season, and a few things happen; first, some investors might look at a position and determine that prospects for earnings are not so great, or some investors are taking the opportunity to put some cash in their pockets, just in case they see a bargain basement opportunity.   A trend in place is more likely to continue than it is to reverse, and it reverses when we can see clear evidence of a reversal. Yes, the market looks overvalued by many metrics, yes there seems to be irrational exuberance; but the markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent; yes, we’ve seen a couple of down days but we’ve gone 33 months without a correction, but we’ve had a bunch of down days during that same time. Right now, we’re seeing a minor pullback into a trading range as we await earnings season. Should you stay or should you go? The markets have hit recent highs, and so you have to wonder if you get out when the getting is good. After hitting record highs, the past 2 days have seen declines; let me be very clear, 2 down days do not constitute a trend; not unless you trade …

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Financial Review

Financial Review Market Scorecard

DOW – 44 = 17,024 SPX – 7 = 1977 NAS – 34 = 4451 10 YR YLD – .03 = 2.62% OIL – .67 = 103.39 GOLD – .50 = 1321.00 SILV – .10 = 21.15

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