Financial Review

Who’s Buying Whom

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-02-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 65 = 17,763 SPX + 7 = 2066 NAS + 6 = 4886 10 YR YLD + .03 = 1.90% OIL – .81 = 49.28 GOLD – 1.10 = 1203.00 SILV – .18 = 16.86   Iran and six world powers, including the US, has agreed to a framework for a final deal on Iran’s controversial nuclear program. The understanding still needs to work out some details but it paves the way for the start of a final phase of talks that aims to reach a comprehensive agreement by the end of June. The agreement concludes weeks of intense negotiations and comes two days beyond the initial March 31 deadline for an outline deal.   Iran has accepted limitations on its enrichment capacity that include retaining only one enrichment facility. Europe and the United States will end nuclear-related economic and financial sanctions on Iran under the future deal after the United Nations’ nuclear agency confirms Tehran’s compliance with the deal.   The standoff over Iran’s nuclear program has dragged on for more than a decade. In November 2013, both sides concluded a preliminary agreement that froze some of Iran’s most sensitive nuclear activities in return for limited sanctions relief. The parties also agreed to reach a conclusive deal by June 2015.   Shortly after the agreement was announced, President Obama read a statement in the Rose Garden of the …

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Financial Review

Corporate Clout

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-01-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 77 = 17,698 SPX – 8 = 2059 NAS – 20 = 4880 10 YR YLD – .06 = 1.87% OIL + 2.49 = 50.09 GOLD + 20.40 = 1204.10 SILV + .30 = 17.04   The first quarter is done; Among the winners: the S&P 500 pulled out a modest gain for the ninth consecutive winning quarter; healthcare was the best performing sector in the S&P 500, up 7.4%; utilities were the biggest decliners in the index, down 5.8%. The Nasdaq Composite posted its ninth consecutive quarterly gain (the first time ever). The Dow Industrials posted a small loss year to date. Oil dropped just over 14% for the quarter. The first quarter’s best-performing exchange-traded products include China, Japan, and solar. The first quarter’s worst-performing exchange-traded products include plays on Brazilian stocks, coffee and volatility.   In many ways, the dollar set the tone across markets in the first three months of the year. The dollar index, hit a 12-year high during the quarter. The strong dollar, or at least the pace of its rise, played havoc with earnings of large multinationals who rely heavily on foreign sales. Meanwhile, commodity markets also saw pressure from a stronger dollar.   Treasuries saw price gains in the first quarter. The yield on the 10 year note dropped from 2.17% to 1.93%. The total return in the Treasury market overall, including price …

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Financial Review

Fixing the Unbroken

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-31-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS  Financial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 200 = 17,776 SPX – 18 = 2067 NAS – 46 = 4900 10 YR YLD – .03 = 1.93% OIL – 1.15 = 47.53 GOLD – 2.30 = 1183.70 SILV – .06 = 16.73   The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index showed steady gains in January, up 0.9% from December. Compared to January 2014, prices were up 4.6%.  In Phoenix, resale home prices were unchanged from December to January, and posted a year-over-year gain of 2.6%.   The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index moved up to 101.3% in March from an upwardly revised 98.8 in February. The present situation index, a measure of current conditions, actually fell to 109.1 from 112.1. Yet the future expectations index increased to 96.0 from 90.   We’ve seen quite a bit of volatility in the markets lately. Today marks the 16 session in the month of March where the Dow Industrial Average has closed with a change in excess of 100 points. That is the second most of any month in history; following 20 triple digit moves in October 2008.   Sell in May and go away. You’ve probably heard this stock market advice. The idea is that you can divide the year into the best six months and the worst six months for the stock market; and we are now heading into the worst six months. Like most …

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Financial Review

Groping Along

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-30-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe   DOW + 263 = 17,976 SPX + 25 = 2086 NAS + 56 = 4947 10 YR YLD + .01 = 1.96% OIL – .19 = 48.68 GOLD – 13.40 = 1186.00 SILV – .28 = 16.79   The Commerce Department reports consumer spending rose just 0.1% in February; that follows a decline in January. The small increase in spending in February and outright decline in January suggest the economy failed in early 2015 to match the pace of growth at the end of last year. Gross domestic product is forecast to expand just 1.4% in the first quarter, down from 2.2% in the fourth quarter and 5% in the third quarter. Part of the problem might be harsh winter weather; if that is the case, we might expect a rebound in consumer spending in the spring.   Or maybe the American consumer is tired of spending, and is actually starting to save. The saving rate jumped in February to 5.8 percent, the highest since December 2012 and up from 4.4 percent just three months earlier. The savings rate slumped to as low as 1.9 percent in the run-up to the recession, a sign too many Americans were spending beyond their means. Since then, consumers have been trying to clean up their finances.   The National Association of Realtors said its pending-home-sales index rose 3.1% to 106.9 after …

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Financial Review

The New Norml

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-27-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 34 = 17,712 SPX + 4 = 2061 NAS + 27 = 4891 10 YR YLD – .06 = 1.95% OIL – 3.01 = 48.42 GOLD – 5.70 = 1199.40 SILV – .13 = 17.07   Modest gains on Wall Street today, but not nearly enough to make up for the four previous days of losses. It wound up being the second-worst week for the market so far this year. The Dow Jones industrial average remains down slightly for 2015, and the Standard & Poor’s 500 index is essentially flat. For the week, the S&P 500 fell 2.2 percent, the Dow lost 2.3 percent and the Nasdaq declined 2.7 percent. The semiconductor sector was a leader today after a report that Intel is in talks to buy rival chipmaker Altera. Intel shares were up 6%; Altera shares were up 28%.   Gross domestic product expanded at a 2.2 percent annual rate last quarter. This was the Commerce Department’s third estimate of GDP, and it was unchanged from last month’s estimate.  Economic growth cooled in the fourth quarter and after-tax corporate profits recorded their biggest drop since early 2011, as a strong dollar dented the earnings of multinational corporations. The fourth quarter GDP was down from a very strong third quarter reading of 5% growth. The first estimate on the first quarter will be published April 29th.   Profits originating outside the …

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Financial Review

While the Sun Shines

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-26-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 40 = 17,678 SPX – 4 = 2056 NAS – 13 = 4863 10 YR YLD + .09 = 2.01% OIL + 2.22 = 51.43 GOLD + 9.00 = 1205.10 SILV = .15 = 17.20 Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies started bombing targets in Yemen as the country slides closer toward civil war. A Saudi military spokesman said there were no immediate plans to launch ground operations in Yemen. Importers say the Saudi attack is not expected to disrupt oil supplies, but the threat of spreading war in the region could likely impact oil flows. Yemeni President Hadi reportedly fled the country yesterday. The White House says the US will provide “logistical and intelligence support.”   Yemen is a fairly small oil producer, but still the news helped push oil prices up almost 5% today, and there are several reasons. First, if things go wrong, this could turn into a proxy war between Shiite Iran, which is backing the rebels, and Saudi Arabia and other Sunni monarchies that supported the Yemeni regime.  The Saudi action could exacerbate tensions in Libya, Syria and Iraq; in other words, this could be part of a trend in the region.   Yemen is also geographically strategic, at the chokepoint of the Red Sea; so there might be the possibility the rebels could disrupt oil tanker traffic; 3.8 million barrels a day …

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Financial Review

A Bit Ironic

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-25-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 292 = 17,718 SPX – 30 = 2061 NAS – 118 = 4876 10 YR YLD + .04 = 1.92% OIL + 1.70 = 49.21 GOLD + 1.90 = 1196.10 SILV + .01 = 17.06 Not much in the way of economic data today. Orders for durable goods dropped in February, a possible sign the slowdown in global growth may be weighing on American manufacturers. Bookings for goods meant to last at least three years declined 1.4 percent after a 2 percent gain in January that was smaller than previously estimated. Demand for American-made products may be softening as economies abroad struggle to accelerate and a stronger dollar makes it more attractive for foreign customers to buy from elsewhere.   Certainly not much in the way of news that would push the markets down to triple digit losses, but that’s the way the markets have been recently. In the past couple of weeks we see big moves in the markets, a little more to the downside than the upside. One of the better explanations I’ve heard for what is moving the market – irony. It seems like good news is bad and bad news is good. A strong dollar is good news for the consumer; certainly when it comes to lower gas prices. A strong dollar hurts durable goods orders. The jobs picture has shown solid and …

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Financial Review

Thirst for Innovation

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-24-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 104 = 18,011 SPX – 12 = 2091 NAS – 16 = 4994 10 YR YLD – .03 = 1.88% OIL + .06 = 47.51 GOLD + 3.90 = 1194.20 SILV – .04 = 17.04   The Labor Department reports the consumer price index climbed by a seasonally adjusted 0.2% last month. Gasoline prices rebounded in February. Higher costs for food, housing and new cars also contributed to the increase. Still, there’s been zero overall inflation in the last 12 months, mainly because of the big drop in gas prices. If food and energy are excluded, so-called core consumer inflation has risen at a 1.7% rate over the past 12 months.   In February energy prices rose 1%. Gasoline price are still down almost 33% in the past year. Food prices moved up 0.2% last month, bringing the increase over the past 12 months to 3%. Shelter costs also rose 3% in the past year. The cost of medical care fell in February for the first time since 1975, although overall health-care costs were unchanged.   Now, the reason the CPI number is important is because the Federal Reserve last week shifted from being patient about raising interest rates to being data dependent about hiking rates, and the data they are focusing on is inflation and jobs. Although the Fed uses a different index as its preferred …

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Financial Review

Transitory, Not Terminal

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-23-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 11 = 18,116 SPX – 3 = 2104 NAS – 15 = 5010 10 YR YLD – .01 = 1.91% OIL + .88 = 47.45 GOLD + 6.90 = 1190.30 SILV + .25 = 17.08   The Dow Jones Industrial Average is still above 18,000. The Nasdaq Composite is above 5,000. The Russell 2000 is near record highs. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Composite, which dipped below 17,000 early in the year, took about a month to surge from 18,000 to 19,000 and is now rapidly approaching the 20,000 level; heights that haven’t been seen since 2000. Germany’s DAX recently traded above 12,000 for the first time and is up nearly 30 percent from the lows set earlier this year. London’s FTSE 100 is over 7,000, at its highest level in 15 years. Central bank monetary easing seems to be having the desired effect of pumping up financial assets around the globe, and even if the Fed is talking about hiking rates in the US, we haven’t seen a serious rate hike tantrum on Wall Street, yet.   U.S. home resales rebounded less than expected in February. The National Association of Realtors said that existing home sales rose 1.2% to an annual rate of 4.88 million units. Inventories are tight and also sales were hurt by harsh winter weather in the Northeast, where sales dropped 6.5%; sales were up …

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Financial Review

No Matter How Long the Winter

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-20-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 168 = 18,127 SPX + 18 = 2108 NAS + 34 = 5026 10 YR YLD – .04 = 1.93% OIL + 1.76 = 45.72 GOLD + 11.40 = 1183.40 SILV + .62 = 16.83   The Nasdaq Composite is back above 5,000. It couldn’t close above the old record high of 5048 from March 10, 2000, but it is close. Even with today’s advance it remains a long way from its intraday high of 5,132, reached the same day. For the week, the Dow gained 2.1 percent while the S&P 500 rose 2.7 percent, both snapping a three-week run of losses. The Nasdaq ended up 3.2 percent.   In London, the FTSE 100 Index hit a fresh record and climbed above 7,000 for the first time. The benchmark gauge of U.K. stocks climbed 0.9 percent to close at 7,022.51 in London, doubling since a low in 2009.  The index first surpassed its dotcom era record last month, having taken more than 15 years for it to regain all the losses from the burst of the tech bubble.   Today is a quadruple witch, and then some.  Index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single stock futures all expire Friday as the first quarter nears its end. Today also marks a rebalancing of the S&P 500 index, to reflect things like mergers, acquisitions, or other changes. About $15.9 billion of shares …

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