Financial Review

Sprinting Up a Mountain

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-14-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW – 18 = 17634 SPX + 0.49 = 2039.82 NAS + 8 = 4688 10 YR YLD – .02 = 2.32% OIL + 1.74 = 75.95 GOLD + 26.40 = 1189.30 SILV + .64 = 16.41 The recent rally in the S&P 500 has been really, really strong. Today marked the 41st record high close for the S&P. In mid-September, the index dropped, and that continued until October 16th. On October 17th we told you about a bullish reversal pattern, and since then the S&P 500 has gained about 160 points. The S&P 500 has traded above its 5 day moving average for 21 consecutive sessions; this is unusual; it means the rally has been extremely strong and nearly non-stop; there were a couple of days where the index paused, but never really went down. The past 21 days resulted in a 12% gain; that’s like a runner sprinting up a mountain. The market is now extremely overbought. Typically, when the market is overbought, you might anticipate a pullback. We haven’t seen it yet, but we can anticipate and wait for the market to show us. There are plenty of reasons to think the stock market will continue higher. First reason is that it is in an uptrend right now; a trend in place is more likely to continue than it is to reverse. Another reason is that there is a …

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Financial Review

Dow Up, Oil Down, Quit Your Job

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-13-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW + 40 = 17,652 SPX + 1 = 2039 NAS + 5 = 4680 10 YR YLD – .02 = 2.34% OIL – 2.79 = 74.39 GOLD + .20 = 1162.90 SILV – .01 = 15.77 Record high close for the Dow Industrials. The Nasdaq Composite hasn’t seen record highs since the spring of 2000, when it closed at 5048, which is just 368 points, or about a 7% move from here. If you were unlucky enough to have bought the PowerShares QQQ exchange-traded fund, an ETF that tracks that top 100 non-financial stocks in the Nasdaq, on March 10, 2000, you’d still be in the red on that investment. Tech companies are once again in a leadership role. While Microsoft, Apple and several other tech leaders of today are trading at higher prices than 15 years ago, Intel and Cisco are still well below their 2000 peak prices. Of course the largest company in market cap is Apple at $660 billion. Apple shares have surged more than 40% so far this year, creating more than $160 billion in market value for shareholders, which coincidentally is about the same market cap as IBM, which was once considered the big player in tech. Today, Microsoft passed Exxon to become the second largest company in terms of market capitalization. Exxon has a market cap of $400 billion; Microsoft is worth $408 billion. Exxon’s …

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Financial Review

Catch a Falling Star

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-12-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:20 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW – 2 = 17,612 SPX – 1 = 2038 NAS + 14 = 4675 10 YR YLD un = 2.36% OIL – 1.19 = 76.75 GOLD – 2.80 = 1161.10 SILV – .04 = 15.76 Stocks have been on a run lately, with the Dow Industrials and the S&P 500 hitting record highs yesterday, and the Dow Transports closing at a new high today. Yesterday, the S&P 500 marked its 40th new closing high of the year, versus 45 in 2013. The last five-day streak of record highs was in May 2013, and the next longest was eight days in June 1997. The Dow also hit a record yesterday, marking 6 consecutive record highs, its longest since June. The S&P 500 has closed above its 5 day moving average for the 19th consecutive session, a streak that has only occurred seven times in the past 20 years. And today did not reverse the trend. Typically, after a rally like this you might expect a pullback; not necessarily a correction, but a pullback; a pause to catch your breath. And so, now would not look like a good time to buy, but you also haven’t seen a signal to sell, at least not yet. Meanwhile, the advance has been so straight and fast that it hasn’t left any support levels in its wake. You might look at S&P 2000 as a round …

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Financial Review

Veterans Day 2014

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-11-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW + 1 = 17,614 SPX + 1 = 2039 NAS + 8 = 4660 10 YR YLD = 2.36% OIL + .12 = 77.52 GOLD + 12.60 = 1165.20 SILV + .14 = 15.85 The Dow and the S&P 500 hit intraday records today, then dipped into negative territory for most of the session, and then in the final minutes managed to eke out gains, good enough for another record high close. The bond market was sort of closed in observation of Veterans’ Day. The US Treasury observes the holiday, and since much of the bond market deals with Treasuries, most bond traders take the day off. Stock traders just keep trading. The stock market used to take a 2-minute pause to recognize veterans, but that ended a few years ago. Wall Street just doesn’t seem to have much respect. Back in the early 70’s, the politicians tried to change Veterans’ Day to October so it could be a Monday holiday, but that didn’t last long. Veterans’ Day of course sprang from Armistice Day, and the end of World War I, on the 11th hour of the 11th Day of the 11th month, the great guns went silent, and the war to end all wars was ended. A bunch of companies are offering deals for veterans. There are a bunch of restaurants offering a free meal or lunch or appetizers. Here’s …

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Financial Review

Net Neutrality

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-10-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW + 39 = 17,613 SPX + 6 = 2038 NAS + 19 = 4651 10 YR YLD + .05 = 2.36% OIL – 1.43 = 77.22 GOLD – 26.90 = 1152.60 SILV – .22 = 15.71 Record highs for the Dow Industrial Average and the S&P 500 index, plus new records for the Dow Transportation Average. We enjoy milk and cookies. The S&P 500 has rebounded 9.4 percent from a six-month low on Oct. 15. We’re still a couple of weeks away from Thanksgiving but third quarter earnings season is wrapping up, and analysts are already looking to next year, anticipating earnings will rise another 7% or so to around $126. And while stock prices have been hitting highs, volatility has dropped; the VIX is back down to 12 or so, indicating a fair amount of complacency, even as stocks hit highs. Commodity prices have been scraping the bottom of the barrel, with oil and gold near multi-year lows; one exception is cattle prices. Live-cattle futures last week hit an all-time high on CME, and prices are unlikely to come down anytime soon. In addition to increasing demand for beef, the recent drought in Texas and Oklahoma dented cattle herds, which has forced farmer to undergo a lengthy cattle replacement process. Stock market analysts aren’t the only ones looking to next year. The World Economic Forum is out with its new …

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Financial Review

Jobs Report Friday

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-07-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:17 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS[powerpress Financial Review DOW + 19 = 17,573 SPX + 0.71 = 2031 NAS – 5 = 4632 10 YR YLD – .06 = 2.31% OIL + .60 = 78.51 GOLD + 36.50 = 1178.80 SILV + .32 = 15.85 The economy added 214,000 net new jobs in October. The unemployment rate dropped from 5.9% to 5.8%. The 5.8 percent official unemployment rate is the lowest since the summer of 2008. The August report was revised higher to 203,000 and the September report was revised higher to 256,000; for a net increase of 31,000 jobs added from revisions. Employment is now up 2.64 million year-over-year, and up 2.3 million year to date. So far in 2014 the US has gained an average of 229,000 jobs a month, the fastest pace since 1999. October was the ninth consecutive month of 200,000 or more jobs gained, and that hasn’t happened since 1994. Total employment is up 10 million from the employment recession low and up 1.3 million from the previous peak; although it should be noted that full-time employment has not returned to the previous peak, while part-time employment is quite a bit higher than the peak. Private employment is up 10.6 million from the employment recession low. This latest report represents 56 consecutive months of private-sector job growth, which represents the longest streak in US history, but it isn’t the strongest streak of job growth. …

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Financial Review

Taking on Water

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-06-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:17 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW + 69 = 17,554 SPX + 7 = 2031 NAS + 17 = 4638 10 YR YLD + .03 = 2.38% OIL – .70 = 77.98 GOLD + 1.30 = 1142.30 SILV + .11 = 15.53 Record highs for the Dow Industrial Average and the S&P 500 index. Milk and cookies time. Outplacement consultant Challenger, Gray & Christmas says layoffs increased by 51,000 last month. Layoffs are down 4% from a year ago, and the increase in October follows a 14 year low in September. Meanwhile, the Labor Department reports the number of Americans applying for new jobless benefits fell by 10,000 last week, to 278,000; the eighth straight week under 300,000. This is all part of the setup for tomorrow morning’s monthly jobs report. The big news today comes from the European Central Bank; ECB president Mario Draghi announced the central bank will increase its balance sheet by €1 trillion, or about $1.2 trillion, over the next 2 years. Interest rates are already at record lows, and Draghi has said they can go no lower. The ECB has issued long-term loans to banks and started buying covered bonds in the hope of flooding the economy with enough liquidity to ease credit constraints. Purchases of asset-backed securities are due to start this month. Exactly what the ECB will purchase remains uncertain, but they are likely to move into the €1.4 trillion …

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Financial Review

Milk and Cookies in the Land of No Satisfaction

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-05-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW + 100 = 17,484 SPX + 11 = 2023 NAS – 2 = 4620 10 YR YLD un = 2.35% OIL + 1.69 = 78.88 GOLD – 28.20 = 1141.00 SILV – .72 = 15.42 Record highs for the Dow Industrials and the S&P 500. The midterm election is history, and it was a big night for the GOP. Republicans will have at least 52 Senate seats, a gain of 7. In the House, the GOP will now have at least 243 seats, a gain of 14. The GOP also gained 2 net governorships. So it was a big night. However, Obama was not on the ballot, even though some of the campaign ads made it sound that way; he’s got 2 more years and he still has veto power. It takes a two-thirds majority in both the House and Senate to override a veto. Republicans have nowhere near two-thirds of either chamber. So, get ready for 2 more years of gridlock. One takeaway is that people are not satisfied with the economic progress of the past few years. While Wall Street is at record highs and the unemployment rate has dropped, that just isn’t enough. Fewer people participated in stock market gains and even though more people have jobs, the jobs aren’t paying what they used to. It doesn’t mean the numbers are wrong; the Dow closed at 17,484 and …

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Financial Review

Lather, Rinse, Repeat

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-04-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW + 17 = 17,383 SPX – 5 = 2012 NAS – 15 = 4623 10 YR YLD – .01 = 2.34% OIL – 1.31 = 77.47 GOLD + 2.90 = 1169.20 SILV – .11 = 16.13 Election Day 2014! We should all be very, very happy. Forget about red and blue, we can all count our blessings because the campaign ads on radio and TV are going away. There is one redeeming thing about this whole election. It will be over in a few hours. Say hallelujah! Or you could say that it’s amazing that anyone bothers to vote given that our choices are between tweedle dumb and tweedle dumber. Still, I went to the polls today, early, and I cast my ballot. I was the only voter voting. In a few hours we’ll get the results. And the most likely result is that not much will change, despite the drama and despite hundreds of millions to persuade you. It takes a fortune for a politician to get beat these days, but most of the money isn’t real, it’s magic money that doesn’t belong to anybody, or at least nobody is willing to admit they spend money on politics. We’ve got the best politicians money can buy. The present split Congress is the least-productive in US history. Regardless of the election’s outcome, the 114th Congress is unlikely to be any more …

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Financial Review

Mangled Expectations

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-03-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW – 24 = 17,366 SPX – 0.24 = 2017 NAS + 8 = 4638 10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.35% OIL – 2.03 = 78.39 GOLD – 7.60 = 1166.30 SILV – .03 = 16.25 No milk and cookies today, however the Dow and S&P hit intraday record highs. Construction spending fell 0.4% in September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $950 billion. Spending fell 0.6% for nonresidential projects and dropped 1.3% for public construction projects, but rose 0.4% for residential projects. The National Association of Realtors reports first-time buyers’ share of home sales has hit a 27 year low of just 33%; normally it would be closer to 40%. The final reading of Markit’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index was 55.9 in October, down from the flash reading of 56.2 and well below September’s 57.9. The Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing index jumped to 59% from 56.6% in the prior month; new orders, production, and the employment gauge all moved higher. Last week the Federal Reserve officially ended the Quantitative Easing plan, which has been around in various forms for about 5 years. The dollar reached multi-year highs against both the yen and euro; last week the Bank of Japan announced a surprise stimulus plan, called QQE2; on that news the stock markets hit a new high on Friday and global markets rallied. This week the European …

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