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Friday, April 12, 2014 – Trade Secrets

Trade Secrets by Sinclair Noe DOW – 0.08 = 14,865SPX – 4 = 1588NAS – 5 = 329410 YR YLD – .07 = 1.72%OIL – 2.85 = 90.66GOLD – 84.00 = 1478.00SILV – 1.81 = 25.95 The S&P 500 is up about 2.4 percent for the week, and the Dow up about 1.8 percent and Nasdaq up about 2.4 percent. The S&P has only had two weeks in 2013 with bigger gains. For the year, the Dow has gained more than 13 percent and the Nasdaq is up 8.7 percent. Retail sales fell in March for the second time in three months and consumer confidence dropped in April. Sales fell 0.4 percent in March. Consumer spending was considerably weaker in the first quarter than estimated. Core sales, which strip out cars, gasoline and building materials, fell 0.2 percent last month. This measure corresponds closely with the consumer spending component of the government’s measure of gross domestic product. It is widely believed that the end of the payroll tax holiday is related to the drop in consumer spending. Going a step further, growth is expected to slow sharply in the second quarter largely because fiscal policy tightened further in March. A separate report from Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan shows the consumer sentiment index dropping ot 72.3 in April, the lowest level since last summer. Producer prices, or prices at the wholesale level, fell 0.6 percent in March, their biggest drop in 10 months, as gasoline prices tumbled. In the 12 months …

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Thursday, April 11, 2013 – Banks Behaving Badly

Banks Behaving Badly by Sinclair Noe DOW + 62 = 14,865SPX + 5 = 1593NAS + 2 = 330010 YR YLD – .01 = 1.79%OIL – 1.15 = 93.49GOLD + 1.70 = 1562.00SILV + .01 = 27.76 The markets went up today because the market has been moving higher. Nothing in the news to derail the trend. Jobless claims fell far more than expected in the latest week, dropping to the lower end of the range for the year. Retail executives forecast improved same-store sales in April after mixed results in March. Other economic data showed import prices slipped 0.5 percent last month, in line with expectations, while export prices fell 0.4 percent, signaling inflation pressure remained tepid and would allow the Federal Reserve to continue with its current monetary policy. Most of the shorts in the market have been pummeled already; if you’re waiting for a pullback, you’ve probably run out of patience. The trend is up; at least for now. And we are in earnings season. I’m waiting for the big banks to post results. Right now the banks are generally trading below book. Citigroup trades at about 14 percent less than tangible book value,and Bank of America trades at a 7 percent discount to book value. JPMorgan, the biggest US bank by assets, and Goldman Sachs, the fifth-biggest, trade for 28 percent and 9 percent more than tangible book value, respectively. One of the concerns is that the banks still hold toxic assets on their books, and …

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Wednesday, April 10, 2013 – The Real Question on the Economy

The Real Question on the Economy by Sinclair Noe DOW + 128 = 14, 802SPX + 19 = 1587NAS + 59 = 329710 YR YLD +.06 = 1.80%OIL +.35 = 94.55GOLD – 25.70 = 1560.30SILV – .33 = 27.75 The Federal Reserve released the minutes of their Federal Open Market Committee meeting held March 19-20. The minutes leaked out 5 hours early. The Fed inadvertently sent the report to congressional aides and trade organizations yesterday, and since the details are actually trade-able information, they had to make it public quicker than not. Make no mistake, this was a serious breach of protocol. Once the minutes were made public, it depressed bond prices, mainly because of disagreements among the Fed’s 19 policymakers about carrying on with buying $85 billion in Treasury and mortgage bonds per month to stimulate the economy. Of the 12 officials who have a vote on monetary policy this year, “a few” expected to taper the purchases around midyear and to end them later this year. “Several others thought that if the outlook for labor market conditions improved as anticipated, it would probably be appropriate to slow purchases later in the year and to stop them by year-end.” Proving once again that the prognosticating skills of the Federal Reserve are roughly equal to the singing skills of a fish on a bicycle. Just like the release of the minutes, their ideas about exiting QE seem a bit premature, especially in light of last week’s jobs report, which you …

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Tuesday, April 09, 2013 – Poultice Does Not Cover the Wound

Poultice Does Not Cover the Wound by Sinclair Noe DOW + 59 = 14,673SPX + 5 = 1568NAS + 15 = 323710 YR YLD +.01 = 1.75%OIL +.60 = 93.96GOLD + 12.30 = 1586.00SILV + .68 = 28.08 The Dow Industrials hit a record high close. The S&P 500 was close to a record; not quite. Yesterday, there was a Statement Issued by the Europe Commission on Portugal. The Statement reads: “The European Commission welcomes that, following the decision of the Portuguese Constitutional Court on the 2013 state budget, the Portuguese Government has confirmed its commitment to the adjustment programme, including its fiscal targets and timeline. Any departure from the programme’s objectives, or their re-negotiation, would in fact neutralise the efforts already made and achieved by the Portuguese citizens.” Let me clear this up for you; the Portuguese courts ruled that austerity was a bad thing and suggested that the Portuguese governmetn stop with the austerity. By ruling that four government austerity measures, including planned cuts in public-sector pay and state pensions, were in breach of the constitution, the court has blown a 1.3-billion-euro hole in the 2013 budget. It has raised the possibility of another bail-out crisis in southern Europe while the dust is still settling on the rescue of Cyprus’s banks. Let’s look at Portugal:  Portugal is in a recessionary cycle. The economy will shrink by 2.3 per cent this year, more than twice as much as the previous government forecast (and the slowdown of exports to the …

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Monday, April 08, 2013 – Cat Food Futures Soar on Chained CPI

The Wealth Protection Conference was a bundle of fun. The whole thing was recorded on 9 CDs. You can order the CD recordings (or MP3 recordings are less expensive). Call Resource Consultants at 800-494-4149. Cat Food Futures Soar on Chained CPI by Sinclair Noe DOW + 48 = 14,613SPX + 9 = 1563NAS + 18 = 322210 YR YLD + .04 = 1.79%OIL +.82 = 93.52GOLD – 9.60 = 1573.70SILV – .05 = 27.40 The S&P 500 fell 1 percent last week as US payrolls had the smallest gain in nine months in March. The economy added 88,000 jobs in March, even though prior month job gains were revised higher; the unemployment rate dipped to 7.6%, mainly because more people left the labor market and are no longer counted for one reason or another. The idea is that some people just retire, or other people just can’t find a job, so they drop out of the workforce. One reason that so many people are just dropping out of the workforce now is the shortening of the period of extended unemployment benefits. As long as people are receiving unemployment insurance they have to be looking for work. When their period of eligibility ends, most people just drop out of the labor force. The period of extended benefits was shortened in most states at the end of 2012. As a result, many people went from being classified as unemployed (no job, but looking for work) to being out of the labor force …

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Thursday, April 04, 2013 – Experimental Therapies

The Wealth Protection Conference kicks off tomorrow afternoon in Tempe, Arizona. I will be the keynote speaker, starting at 4PM. This year’s roster of speakers includes Mark Liebovit, Nathan Liles, David Smith, Roger Weigand, Arch Crawford, Ian McAvity, and Bill Tatro. These are some of the best technical analysts in the markets and top researchers and economic minds, and me. The conference is Friday and Saturday. For more information: www.buysilvernow.com. To make a reservation, please call 480-820-5877. I hope to see you there. Experimental Therapies by Sinclair Noe DOW + 66 = 14,606SPX + 6 = 1559NAS + 6 = 322410 YR YLD – .05 = 1.76%OIL – 1.07 = 93.38GOLD – 4.30 = 1554.60 SILV- .08 = 27.00 A big day for central bankers. The European Central Bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.75%, while the Bank of England held its key rate steady at 0.5%. With both central banks’ rates already at record lows, there might be little room to use interest rates as a stimulus. But the euro zone economies, like that of Britain, are stagnant and in need of help wherever they can find it. What to do when interest rates are already near zero? The Fed playbook calls for Quantitative Easing, and today the Bank of Japan took that playbook and put it on steroids. First in Europe, ECB President Mario Draghi says the ECB was looking for new ways to stimulate lending in the weak euro zone economy, and could move quickly, …

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Wednesday, April 03, 2013 – Traps Set

Mark your Calendar, April 5 & 6 and make your reservations for the 2013 Wealth Protection Conference in Tempe, AZ. For conference information visit www.buysilvernow.comor click hereor call 480-820-5877. This year’s conference features Roger Weigand, Nathan Liles, David Smith, Mark Liebovit, Arch Crawford, Ian McAvity, Bill Tatro, and I will speak on Friday. There is an expanded Q&A session with all speakers on Saturday. I hope you can attend. Traps Set by Sinclair Noe DOW – 111 = 14,550SPX – 16 = 1553NAS – 36 = 321810 YR YLD – .05 = 1.81%OIL – 2.72 = 94.47GOLD – 18.30 = 1558.90SILV – .28 = 27.08 We have a day like today and we are reminded of the fleeting nature of a bull run. The Russell 2000 cracked this week. It tried to get up yesterday, but small-caps couldn’t hold their ground. Transports followed with a thud. Both the transports and the Russell registered slightly lower highs to kick off the second quarter. Commodities have moved lower as of late; gold, silver, platinum, copper all sneaking back to support. Physical demand for the metals remains very strong and there appears to be a disconnect between the paper market and the physical market. It feels like someone is trying to set a trap for a greater fool. I don’t know whether this is a technical move, or if there is a fundamental reason. The news doesn’t always help. The big news story of the day is that the Rutgers basketball coach yelled …

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Tuesday, April 02, 2013 – Correlation and Divergence

Mark your Calendar, April 5 & 6 and make your reservations for the 2013 Wealth Protection Conference in Tempe, AZ. For conference information visit www.buysilvernow.comor click hereor call 480-820-5877. This year’s conference features Roger Weigand, Nathan Liles, David Smith, Mark Liebovit, Arch Crawford, Ian McAvity, Bill Tatro, and I will speak on Friday. There is an expanded Q&A session with all speakers on Saturday. I hope you can attend. Correlation and Divergence by Sinclair Noe DOW + 89 = 14,662SPX + 8 = 1570NAS + 15 = 325410 YR YLD + .02 = 1.86%OIL – .16 = 96.91GOLD – 23.20 = 1577.20SILV – .76 = 27.36 Yesterday I told you the big economic report this week will be the jobs report on Friday. Many people like to discount the jobs report, claiming it doesn’t give a thorough picture of the labor market; and there is some validity to this complaint. The Philly Fed has produced a slightly more comprehensive report, known as the Coincident Index; this measures  four variables (nonfarm payroll employment, average hours worked in manufacturing, the unemployment rate, and real wage and salaries) wrapped into one index, designed so that it roughly reflects gross domestic product growth. Nationally, the Philadelphia Fed’s coincident index rose 0.3% in February for a 2.8% year-on-year gain. They also provide state by state breakdown. Alabama, Illinois, and New Mexico saw declines in the February report; 45 states notched advances. With the stock market, or at least the Dow Industrials and Transports, and the …

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Monday, April 01, 2013 – April Comes in Like a Lamb

Mark your Calendar, April 5 & 6 and make your reservations for the 2013 Wealth Protection Conference in Tempe, AZ. For conference information visit www.buysilvernow.comor click hereor call 480-820-5877. This year’s conference features Roger Weigand, Nathan Liles, David Smith, Mark Liebovit, Arch Crawford, Ian McAvity, Bill Tatro, and I will speak on Friday. There is an expanded Q&A session with all speakers on Saturday. I hope you can attend. April Comes in Like a Lamb by Sinclair Noe DOW – 5 = 14,572SPX – 7 = 1562NAS – 28 = 3239 10 YR YLD – .01 = 1.84%OIL – .25 = 97.39GOLD + 1.80 = 1600.40SILV – .28 = 28.12 This week’s economic special is the March jobs report on Friday morning. Another 200,000 or so gain in hiring would lend further support to the idea that the economy is gaining traction despite fiscal cliffs and sequesters, higher taxes and gasoline prices, a still-soft global economy and divided government in Washington . The jobs picture has shown steady improvement over the past 3 years, steady but also lackluster; and while that’s better than massive losses, it still isn’t enough to lift the economy. Job gains have come in fits and starts followed by long lazy naps. The March jobs report should show us the first effects of the sequester. Government has cut more than 800,000 jobs since 2008 while the private sector has added over 5 million jobs. Many of the cuts from the sequester will be furloughs, which mean …

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Thursday, March 28, 2013 – The Good Shepherd

Mark your Calendar, April 5 & 6 and make your reservations for the 2013 Wealth Protection Conference in Tempe, AZ. For conference information visit www.buysilvernow.comor click hereor call 480-820-5877. This year’s conference features Roger Weigand, Nathan Liles, David Smith, Mark Liebovit, Arch Crawford, Ian McAvity, Bill Tatro, and I will speak on Friday. There is an expanded Q&A session with all speakers on Saturday. I hope you can attend. The Good Shepherd by Sinclair Noe DOW + 52 = 14,578SPX + 6 = 1569NAS + 11 = 326710 YR YLD un = 1.85%OIL + .59 = 97.17GOLD – 8.90 = 1597.50SILV – .33 = 28.46 For the week, the Dow rose 0.4 percent, the S&P 500 advanced 0.8 percent and the Nasdaq gained 0.6 percent. Thursday marked the end of the trading week. The US stock market will be closed tomorrow in observance of the Good Friday holiday. For the month of March, the Dow climbed 3.7 percent, the S&P 500 rose 3.6 percent and the Nasdaq added 3.4 percent. For the first quarter, the Dow shot up 11.2 percent, the S&P 500 jumped 10 percent and the Nasdaq climbed 8.2 percent. The best performing stocks in the S&P since the start of the year: Netflix, Best Buy, Hewlett-Packard, H&R Block, and Micron Tech. The worst performers included: Cliffs Natural Resources, JCPenney, US Steel, Garmin, Apollo Group, and Newfield Exploration. For the Dow Industrial Average and the S&P 500 it was a record high close. Whoopee! The last all-time closing …

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