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A Raft of Reports by Sinclair Noe DOW + 136 = 13,232SPX + 15 = 1427NAS + 42 = 302010 YR YLD +.03 = 1.71%OIL +.65 = 88.48GOLD – 5.20 = 1716.00SILV un = 32.26 We have a drove of economic data to cover today; a mass of intelligence; a flock of facts; a legion of lowdowns; a swarm of information; and we’ll sort through the stories and try to make sense of it all. Of course, tomorrow we’ll get the big report on the monthly jobs picture for October. Friday’s jobs report is expected to show non-farm employers added just 125,000 jobs last month – not enough to prevent the jobless rate from rising a tenth of a point to 7.9 percent. The unemployment rate fell to a near four-year low in September at 7.8%. Today, we heard some hints about tomorrow’s non-farm labor report. Automatic Data Processing, the payroll processor, always releases their report prior to the government’s report. The ADP report is not a particularly good indicator of the BLS report. ADP shows private employers added 158,000 workers last month. There is some evidence of labor market improvement. It is not totally convincing yet but overall the message is positive. Weekly initial unemployment claims declined to 363,000 for the week ending October 27, down 9,000 from the previous week. Unemployment claims topped out over 650,000 back in the first quarter of 2009 and have been moving mostly sideways this year, but are near the cycle bottom. Don’t …

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Paying for Climate Change by Sinclair Noe DOW – 10 = 13,096SPX +0.22 = 1412NAS – 10 = 297710 YR YLD -.06 = 1.69%OIL – .16 = 88.56GOLD + 11.20 = 1721.20SILV + .51 = 32.36 Hurricane Sandy remains the compelling story; the latest count is that the storm killed 64 people in the US. The latest estimates are for up to $15 billion in insured losses, double that for uninsured losses, toss in at least $20 billion in lost business; we’re looking at $50 billion and counting. Lumber futures soared on expectations for increased demand, while gasoline surged on concerns that a Phillips 66 refinery in Linden, New Jersey, could shut for an extended period after Sandy cut power to the plant that produces 238,000 barrels a day of fuel. The aftermath of Hurricane Sandy looks to be a soggy, protracted, costly affair. Over 8 million people are still without electricity. Blackouts could last beyond the election. Transportation is still clogged. The pictures and video out of New York and New Jersey look like war scenes. It will be a challenge but if you think it was a knockout punch, Fougeddaboudit. A 13 foot surge of water hit the southern tip of Manhattan. That’s a big wall of water. New Yorkers may be tough but what if the flooding happens again, and what if the water doesn’t go away? A 13 foot rise in sea level might over time render uninhabitable many of the parts of New York City …

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Tuesday, October 30, 2012 – Sandy, FEMA, Elections, Star Wars, Gold

Sandy, FEMA, Elections, Star Wars, Gold by Sinclair Noe Of course the over-riding story of the day is Hurricane Sandy. The latest is that the death toll has climbed to 40. Search and rescue missions are constant and ongoing. The death toll included 17 victims in New York State; 10 of them in New York City, along with five each in Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Sandy also killed 69 people in the Caribbean before making its way up the Eastern Seaboard. Haiti was hardest hit by the storm; 54 Haitians died, with 20 still missing. Tens of thousands have been left homeless.Crops were devastated. Many Haitians were still living in tents following the 2010 earthquake. Hurricane Sandy has worsened the threats of cholera and food shortages. We should be proud of how we have responded to this natural disaster, but there is still a lot of damage and it will take time to clean up. About 8 million people are without electricity. More than 16,000 airline flights have been canceled. The economic damage will be massive. But it’s too early to say exactly how much it will be. The Jersey Shore was hit especially hard. Lower Manhattan was flooded by an 14 foot surge of seawater, a record. Commuter tunnels and subway tunnels are underwater. Wall Street was closed today, feeling a little under the weather. There was electronic trading in the commodities markets. Gold – .80 = 1710.00, Silver – ,01 = 31.85, crude oil – .02 = 86.57. …

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Monday, October 29, 2012 – Hurricanes and Clean Energy

Hurricanes and Clean Energyby Sinclair Noe The stock and bond markets in New York were closed today; that’s the first time that’s happened since Hurricane Gloria hit New York in the 80’s. The markets will be closed tomorrow; that’s the first time the market has been closed for 2 days due to weather since 1888, when a blizzard hit New York; of course it was closed following 9/11. Areas around New York’s Financial District were part of a mandatory evacuation zone. The storm surge is already pushing water over seawalls in the southern tip of Manhattan. And the hurricane is just now hitting New York head on. It already flooded Atlantic City. Much of the East Coast was at a standstill as the storm approached. The storm, 900 miles across, shut the federal government in Washington and state offices from Virginia to Massachusetts. Schools were closed, planes and trains tried to get out of the way; delays are affecting transportation around the nation. You can’t get there from here. Economic losses could ultimately reach $20 billion, only half of it insured. Some estimates put the property damage as high as $90 billion; we’ll see. Ten states have declared a state of emergency; 60 million people are in the path of the hurricane; there will undoubtedly be some tragedies. Keep those people in your prayers. It is estimated millions of people will lose electricity for an extended period. Federal inspectors have been dispatched to 11 nuclear power plants from Maryland to …

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Friday, October 26, 2012 – Thank God It’s Friday

DOW + 3 = 13,107SPX – 1 = 1411NAS – 1 = 298710 YR YLD – .08 = 1.75%OIL -.43 = 88.30GOLD + .80 = 1712.10SILV – .02 = 32.19 PLAT – 16.00 = 1551.00 The U.S. economy grew in the third quarter, the GDP grew at a 2% rate, a bit stronger than the 1.7% expected by economists, and up from the 1.3% rate in the second quarter. Consumer spending and federal government spending increased and the housing market and home construction were areas of strength. Business spending continued to be a drag. GDP is the broadest measure of an economy’s health, and represents the value of all goods and services produced in the US. GDP has been positive since the third quarter of 2009, but today’s report, although better than expected, really can’t be considered more than moderate growth. Consumer spending increased at a 2% pace. Business investment fell by 1.3% in the third quarter, subtracting 0.1 percentage points from growth. Farm inventories dropped due to the drought and that subtracted 0.4 percentage points from GDP growth. Government spending increased 3.7%, with the lions’ share coming from the federal government and a fairly flat spending pattern from local governments. Investment in the housing sector jumped 14.4%. Inflation as measured by the Consumer PCE or Personal Consumption Expenditures Index increased to 1.8% from 0.7% in the second quarter; most of that increase was due to high gasoline prices, which have started moving lower in the current quarter. Imports dipped …

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Financial Review

Financial Review for Thursday, October 25, 2012 – Thank You Notes

Thank You Notes by Sinclair Noe DOW + 26 = 13,103SPX + 4 = 1412NAS + 4 = 298610 YR YLD + .05 = 1.83OIL – .43 = 88.30GOLD + 8.80 = 1711.30SILV + .38 = 32.11 PLAT + 3.00 = 1567.00 listen at www.MoneyRadio.com Chief executives of more than 80 big U.S. corporations, including Goldman Sachs, Cisco Systems and Boeing, joined forces to press Congress to reduce the federal deficit; they call it “The Campaign to Fix the Debt,” but it is a silly notion. We already have a plan to fix the debt. It’s called sequestration. It involves cutting spending and raising taxes, and it will fix the debt; it would also put the brakes on the economy. The group said any fiscal plan must be bipartisan, tackle all areas of the budget and include tax reform. It also urged the government to reform and improve the efficiency of healthcare programs like Medicare and Medicaid. The Wall Street leaders whose recklessness and illegal behavior caused this terrible recession are now lecturing the American people on the need for courage to deal with the nation’s finances and deficit crisis. The CEOs think the uncertainty is overwhelming and they think it stems from the fiscal cliff, not a lack of business. If they keep putting the cart before the horse, they might veer off the path. I almost missed this next story. Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JPMorgan Chase received a major endorsement from a prominent congressman: Barney Frank. Congressman …

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Thursday, October 25,2012 – Thank You Notes

http://www.moneyradio.com/Audio-Archive Thank You Notes by Sinclair Noe DOW + 26 = 13,103SPX + 4 = 1412NAS + 4 = 298610 YR YLD + .05 = 1.83OIL – .43 = 88.30GOLD + 8.80 = 1711.30SILV + .38 = 32.11 PLAT + 3.00 = 1567.00 Chief executives of more than 80 big U.S. corporations, including Goldman Sachs, Cisco Systems and Boeing, joined forces to press Congress to reduce the federal deficit; they call it “The Campaign to Fix the Debt,” but it is a silly notion. We already have a plan to fix the debt. It’s called sequestration. It involves cutting spending and raising taxes, and it will fix the debt; it would also put the brakes on the economy. The group said any fiscal plan must be bipartisan, tackle all areas of the budget and include tax reform. It also urged the government to reform and improve the efficiency of healthcare programs like Medicare and Medicaid. The Wall Street leaders whose recklessness and illegal behavior caused this terrible recession are now lecturing the American people on the need for courage to deal with the nation’s finances and deficit crisis. The CEOs think the uncertainty is overwhelming and they think it stems from the fiscal cliff, not a lack of business. If they keep putting the cart before the horse, they might veer off the path. I almost missed this next story. Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JPMorgan Chase received a major endorsement from a prominent congressman: Barney Frank. Congressman Frank is …

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Wednesday, October 24, 2012 – Do the Hustle

Do the Hustle by Sinclair Noe DOW – 25 = 13,077 SPX – 4 = 1408 NAS – 8 = 298110 YR YLD +.01 = 1.77%OIL – .43 = 88.30GOLD – 6.20 = 1702.50SILV + .06 = 31.83PLAT – 12.00 = 1566.00 Someday, we’ll get through a whole week without having to report on the never-ending string of bad behavior by the big banks. I thought this might be the week. There were other things in the news; the Presidential debate on Monday; the Federal Reserve FOMC meeting today. We even had a proxy for the bad banks; the giant insurance company AIG reached a settlement with 39 states for creating a death list, where they would stop paying on annuities when someone died but they wouldn’t look for beneficiaries of a life insurance policy. Then to top it off the CEO, Robert Benmosche, said he was indignant that nobody in the government had thanked him for paying back the bailout money that kept the company from total collapse 4 years ago. And over the past couple of weeks, Chase and Wells Fargo were sued for shoddy and virtually non-existent underwriting of mortgages that failed. Who was left? You might think the big bad banks would take the week off from the news cycle. Yes, someday, we’ll break the bonds of this gruesome litany of dirty deeds; someday this war will end. But not today. The latest federal lawsuit over alleged mortgage fraud paints an unflattering picture of a doomed …

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Tuesday, October 23, 2012 – Take Me to the Water

Take Me to the Water by Sinclair noe DOW – 243 = 13,102SPX – 20 = 1413NAS -26 = 299010 YR YLD – .03 = 1.76%OIL – .43 = 88.20GOLD – 21.80 = 1708.70SILV – .78 = 31,77PLAT – 38.00 = 1576.00 I’m still trying to figure out how Iran goes through Syria to gain access to the sea; this might take a while, so let’s consider some other topics while we wait. Today, the Dow Jones ended down 1.8% and the S&P 500 was off 1.4%. Why? Why? Who can explain why? Not me. But I can tell you that the Oracles of CNBC have figured it out and they can tell you why the markets moved, at least they can tell you after the fact. Here’s what they spake: Concerns about the strength of corporate earnings, particularly multinationals like DuPont, IBM and McDonald’s; increased selling by liquidity-seeking Europeans; China’s slowing economy; Wilbur Ross decided it might be better to invest in Spanish banks next year; Spain’s GDP continues to shrink; The short-selling ban in Spain expired yesterday; Obama used the word “sequestration” during last night’s debate, reminding people of the fiscal cliff; Fed policy continues to keep assets prices at some level above their fundamentals, but the fundamentals are worsening; Each round of QE has been decreasingly effective; The technicals of the S&P 500; Romney might win the election; Apple’s roll out of the iPad mini might be underwhelming. The iPad mini roll out; it’s small; I don’t …

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Monday, Ocotber 22, 2012 – What’s the Over-Under on a Thank You Note?

What’s the Over-Under on a Thank You Note? by Sinclair Noe DOW + 2 = 13,345SPX + 0.63 = 1433NAS + 11 = 301610 YR YLD + .03 = 1.80OIL – 1.79 = 88.26GOLD + 9.00 = 1730.50SILV +.38 = 32.55PLAT – 9.00 = 1614.00 I never knew that you could do these things but apparently you can. How many times do you think you will hear the word China or Chinese in tonight’s debate. The over/under on China is 7. You can actually bet on how many times you’ll hear a particular word or phrase. The over /under on Benghazi is 25. A year ago, I didn’t even know where Benghazi is; now it will probably be all over the debate. The over/under on terror/terrorists/terrorism or some other form of the word; the over under is 37 and this includes both candidates and the moderator. The over/under on Federal Reserve is one. Who knew? I’m not advising you actually place a wager on this. In fact, I think it would be a bad idea; but this is what it’s boiled down to: bread and circuses, a chicken in every pot and cheap entertainment for all. The winner tonight could very well determine which man will be what was once called without irony The Leader of the Free World. There is a good chance that the winner tonight will be the one who convinces us that foreign policy actually matters to your wallet. If it happens overseas it impacts us …

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