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Thursday, April 04, 2013 – Experimental Therapies

The Wealth Protection Conference kicks off tomorrow afternoon in Tempe, Arizona. I will be the keynote speaker, starting at 4PM. This year’s roster of speakers includes Mark Liebovit, Nathan Liles, David Smith, Roger Weigand, Arch Crawford, Ian McAvity, and Bill Tatro. These are some of the best technical analysts in the markets and top researchers and economic minds, and me. The conference is Friday and Saturday. For more information: www.buysilvernow.com. To make a reservation, please call 480-820-5877. I hope to see you there. Experimental Therapies by Sinclair Noe DOW + 66 = 14,606SPX + 6 = 1559NAS + 6 = 322410 YR YLD – .05 = 1.76%OIL – 1.07 = 93.38GOLD – 4.30 = 1554.60 SILV- .08 = 27.00 A big day for central bankers. The European Central Bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.75%, while the Bank of England held its key rate steady at 0.5%. With both central banks’ rates already at record lows, there might be little room to use interest rates as a stimulus. But the euro zone economies, like that of Britain, are stagnant and in need of help wherever they can find it. What to do when interest rates are already near zero? The Fed playbook calls for Quantitative Easing, and today the Bank of Japan took that playbook and put it on steroids. First in Europe, ECB President Mario Draghi says the ECB was looking for new ways to stimulate lending in the weak euro zone economy, and could move quickly, …

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Wednesday, April 03, 2013 – Traps Set

Mark your Calendar, April 5 & 6 and make your reservations for the 2013 Wealth Protection Conference in Tempe, AZ. For conference information visit www.buysilvernow.comor click hereor call 480-820-5877. This year’s conference features Roger Weigand, Nathan Liles, David Smith, Mark Liebovit, Arch Crawford, Ian McAvity, Bill Tatro, and I will speak on Friday. There is an expanded Q&A session with all speakers on Saturday. I hope you can attend. Traps Set by Sinclair Noe DOW – 111 = 14,550SPX – 16 = 1553NAS – 36 = 321810 YR YLD – .05 = 1.81%OIL – 2.72 = 94.47GOLD – 18.30 = 1558.90SILV – .28 = 27.08 We have a day like today and we are reminded of the fleeting nature of a bull run. The Russell 2000 cracked this week. It tried to get up yesterday, but small-caps couldn’t hold their ground. Transports followed with a thud. Both the transports and the Russell registered slightly lower highs to kick off the second quarter. Commodities have moved lower as of late; gold, silver, platinum, copper all sneaking back to support. Physical demand for the metals remains very strong and there appears to be a disconnect between the paper market and the physical market. It feels like someone is trying to set a trap for a greater fool. I don’t know whether this is a technical move, or if there is a fundamental reason. The news doesn’t always help. The big news story of the day is that the Rutgers basketball coach yelled …

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Tuesday, April 02, 2013 – Correlation and Divergence

Mark your Calendar, April 5 & 6 and make your reservations for the 2013 Wealth Protection Conference in Tempe, AZ. For conference information visit www.buysilvernow.comor click hereor call 480-820-5877. This year’s conference features Roger Weigand, Nathan Liles, David Smith, Mark Liebovit, Arch Crawford, Ian McAvity, Bill Tatro, and I will speak on Friday. There is an expanded Q&A session with all speakers on Saturday. I hope you can attend. Correlation and Divergence by Sinclair Noe DOW + 89 = 14,662SPX + 8 = 1570NAS + 15 = 325410 YR YLD + .02 = 1.86%OIL – .16 = 96.91GOLD – 23.20 = 1577.20SILV – .76 = 27.36 Yesterday I told you the big economic report this week will be the jobs report on Friday. Many people like to discount the jobs report, claiming it doesn’t give a thorough picture of the labor market; and there is some validity to this complaint. The Philly Fed has produced a slightly more comprehensive report, known as the Coincident Index; this measures  four variables (nonfarm payroll employment, average hours worked in manufacturing, the unemployment rate, and real wage and salaries) wrapped into one index, designed so that it roughly reflects gross domestic product growth. Nationally, the Philadelphia Fed’s coincident index rose 0.3% in February for a 2.8% year-on-year gain. They also provide state by state breakdown. Alabama, Illinois, and New Mexico saw declines in the February report; 45 states notched advances. With the stock market, or at least the Dow Industrials and Transports, and the …

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Monday, April 01, 2013 – April Comes in Like a Lamb

Mark your Calendar, April 5 & 6 and make your reservations for the 2013 Wealth Protection Conference in Tempe, AZ. For conference information visit www.buysilvernow.comor click hereor call 480-820-5877. This year’s conference features Roger Weigand, Nathan Liles, David Smith, Mark Liebovit, Arch Crawford, Ian McAvity, Bill Tatro, and I will speak on Friday. There is an expanded Q&A session with all speakers on Saturday. I hope you can attend. April Comes in Like a Lamb by Sinclair Noe DOW – 5 = 14,572SPX – 7 = 1562NAS – 28 = 3239 10 YR YLD – .01 = 1.84%OIL – .25 = 97.39GOLD + 1.80 = 1600.40SILV – .28 = 28.12 This week’s economic special is the March jobs report on Friday morning. Another 200,000 or so gain in hiring would lend further support to the idea that the economy is gaining traction despite fiscal cliffs and sequesters, higher taxes and gasoline prices, a still-soft global economy and divided government in Washington . The jobs picture has shown steady improvement over the past 3 years, steady but also lackluster; and while that’s better than massive losses, it still isn’t enough to lift the economy. Job gains have come in fits and starts followed by long lazy naps. The March jobs report should show us the first effects of the sequester. Government has cut more than 800,000 jobs since 2008 while the private sector has added over 5 million jobs. Many of the cuts from the sequester will be furloughs, which mean …

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Thursday, March 28, 2013 – The Good Shepherd

Mark your Calendar, April 5 & 6 and make your reservations for the 2013 Wealth Protection Conference in Tempe, AZ. For conference information visit www.buysilvernow.comor click hereor call 480-820-5877. This year’s conference features Roger Weigand, Nathan Liles, David Smith, Mark Liebovit, Arch Crawford, Ian McAvity, Bill Tatro, and I will speak on Friday. There is an expanded Q&A session with all speakers on Saturday. I hope you can attend. The Good Shepherd by Sinclair Noe DOW + 52 = 14,578SPX + 6 = 1569NAS + 11 = 326710 YR YLD un = 1.85%OIL + .59 = 97.17GOLD – 8.90 = 1597.50SILV – .33 = 28.46 For the week, the Dow rose 0.4 percent, the S&P 500 advanced 0.8 percent and the Nasdaq gained 0.6 percent. Thursday marked the end of the trading week. The US stock market will be closed tomorrow in observance of the Good Friday holiday. For the month of March, the Dow climbed 3.7 percent, the S&P 500 rose 3.6 percent and the Nasdaq added 3.4 percent. For the first quarter, the Dow shot up 11.2 percent, the S&P 500 jumped 10 percent and the Nasdaq climbed 8.2 percent. The best performing stocks in the S&P since the start of the year: Netflix, Best Buy, Hewlett-Packard, H&R Block, and Micron Tech. The worst performers included: Cliffs Natural Resources, JCPenney, US Steel, Garmin, Apollo Group, and Newfield Exploration. For the Dow Industrial Average and the S&P 500 it was a record high close. Whoopee! The last all-time closing …

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Wednesday, March 27, 2013 – What Does That Mean?

Mark your Calendar, April 5 & 6 and make your reservations for the 2013 Wealth Protection Conference in Tempe, AZ. For conference information visit www.buysilvernow.comor click hereor call 480-820-5877. This year’s conference features Roger Weigand, Nathan Liles, David Smith, Mark Liebovit, Arch Crawford, Ian McAvity, Bill Tatro, and I will speak on Friday. There is an expanded Q&A session with all speakers on Saturday. I hope you can attend. What Does That Mean? By Sinclair Noe DOW – 33 = 14,526SPX – 0.92 = 1562NAS + 4 = 325610 YR YLD – .05 = 1.85%OIL + .35 = 96.69GOLD + 5.90 = 1606.40SILV – .07 = 28.79 With just a couple of trading days left in the first quarter, it looks like the S&P 500 will finish the quarter with its highest valuation in three years. At its current price, the S&P 500 has an LTM P/E of 16.1x; allow me to translate. The Price to earnings ratio, or P/E, over the last twelve months, (LTM) is 16.1. We get this number by taking the stock’s current price divided by the company’s 12 month earning per share. As an example, if a stock is priced at $10 and had earnings of $1, the P/E is 10. If they had earnings of $5 the P/E is 2; if they had earnings of 50 cents, the P/E would be 20. After gaining 9.2% year-to-date and growing its multiple, the S&P 500 will enter earnings season with high expectations. However, the current multiple …

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Tuesday, March 26, 2013 – Miles to Go

Miles to Go by Sinclair Noe DOW + 111 = 14,559SPX + 12 = 1563NAS + 17 = 3252 10 YR YLD – .01 = 1.91OIL + 1.40 = 96.21GOLD – 5.90 = 1600.50SILV – .09 = 28.86 The Dow Industrial hit a record hit close today, taking out the March 14 closing high. The S&P 500 came within a couple of points of the high close; it is having a hard time breaking through the ceiling; you just have to content yourself with the idea that the index has more than doubled from the lows of March 2009. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, which measures the cost of using options as insurance against declines, fell 7.1 percent to 12.77. The gauge has tumbled 29 percent for the year. It is a reflection of complacency. We have many things to cover today. Home prices were up in January and the year over year improvement in prices was the fastest in 6 years. The S&P Case Shiller Index of existing home sales was up 0.1% in January, and the year over year gains were 8.1%. On a year-over-year basis, all 20 cities measured by the Case-Shiller index improved, led by a 23.2% surge in Phoenix, with New York bringing up the rear with a 0.6% advance. Sales of new U.S. homes fell 4.6% in February to mark the biggest drop in two years, though poor weather likely played a big role. Sales slowed to an annual rate of 411,000, …

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Monday, March 25, 2013 – We Have a Template

Mark your Calendar, April 5 & 6 and make your reservations for the 2013 Wealth Protection Conference in Tempe, AZ. For conference information visit www.buysilvernow.comor click hereor call 480-820-5877. This year’s conference features Roger Weigand, Nathan Liles, David Smith, Mark Liebovit, Arch Crawford, Ian McAvity, Bill Tatro, and I will speak on Friday. There is an expanded Q&A session with all speakers on Saturday. I hope you can attend.  We Have a Template by Sinclair Noe DOW – 64 = 14447SPX – 5 = 1551NAS – 9 = 323510 YR YLD un = 1.91%OIL -.03 = 94.78GOLD – 3.80 = 1606.40SILV + .09 = 28.95 This week started in the Mediterranean, on a tiny, faraway island. Cyprus has apparently reached a deal with the Troika. Cyprus’ banks have been closed for the past week and will not reopen until tomorrow, or possibly until Thursday. The deal involves the Troika stealing from bank accounts over 100,000-euros, in order to prop up Cypriot banks and then burden the Cypriots with a bailout package chock full of debt. The deal involves raising $7.5 billion from senior bondholders an people with more than about $130,000 in their accounts, which is the insured amount. Smaller account holders won’t be raided. Once the $7.5 billion is raised, Cyprus will qualify for a $13 billion bailout from the Troika. In return for the bailout, Cyprus must drastically shrink its outsized banking sector, cut its budget, implement structural reforms, raise taxes, and privatize state assets The citizens of …

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Friday, March 22, 2013 – And the Award Goes to…

And the Award Goes to… by Sinclair Noe DOW + 90 = 14,512SPX + 11 = 1556NAS + 22 = 324510 YR YLD – .02 = 1.91%OIL + 1.35 = 93.80GOLD – 5.60 = 1610.20SILV – .42 = 28.86 For the second time this year, the S&P 500 was down on the week, slipping 0.2% over the past five trading sessions. The Dow and the Nasdaq Comp also ended just a smidge lower for the week. Cyprus has been a big concern this week. It is a tiny little island in the Mediterranean, and it is just a blip on the overall Euro-economy, but it could have big implications for the Euro-zone; which is something like the Hotel California; you can check in any time you please, but you can never leave. If Cyprus does leave, or get kicked out of the Euro, others may follow suit. If Spain or Italy leaves the Euro, there is no more Euro. It has also not helped confidence in the euro that the Cypriot crisis has erupted at a time when other troubling problems are now raising their ugly heads in Europe. Less than a month ago, the electorate in Italy, the euro area’s third largest economy and a country with around 2 trillion-euro in public debt, voted overwhelmingly against austerity and structural reform. Imposing fiscal austerity on the periphery in those circumstances only seems to drive the periphery ever deeper into economic recession. Actually, depression may be more descriptive. In Greece and …

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Thursday, March 21, 2013 – Math Class was Canceled

Mark your Calendar, April 5 & 6 and make your reservations for the 2013 Wealth Protection Conference in Tempe, AZ. For conference information visit www.buysilvernow.comor click hereor call 480-820-5877. This year’s conference features Roger Weigand, Nathan Liles, David Smith, Mark Liebovit, Arch Crawford, Ian McAvity, Bill Tatro, and I will speak on Friday. There is an expanded Q&A session with all speakers on Saturday. I hope you can attend.  Math Class was Canceled by Sinclair Noe DOW – 90 = 14,421SPX – 12 = 1545NAS – 31 = 3222 10 YR YLD – .01 = 1.93%OIL – 1.07 = 92.43GOLD + 8.10 = 1615.80SILV + .36 = 29.28 Some economic reports to touch on. The number of Americans filing for first time unemployment benefits rose by 2,000 last week to 336,000, which is still close to a 5-year low. Jobless claims, a rough gauge of layoffs, have fallen below 350,000 in five of the past six weeks, marking the first time that has happened since late 2007. The National Association of Realtors reports existing home sales rose 0.8% in February to a seasonally adjusted rate of 4.98 million, which marks the highest level of sales since November 2009. While sales are still below bubble levels, we are seeing improvements; low rates are luring buyers and rising prices are luring both buyers and sellers back into the market. Inventories rose 9.6% in February, but still at relatively tight levels. Year over year, the national median sales price rose 11.6%. The trend …

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