January, Thursday 05, 2012

DOW – 2 = 12,415SPX +3 = 1281NAS +21 = 266910 YR YLD -.01 = 1.99%OIL +.03 = 103.25GOLD +8.90 = 1622.40SILV + .21 = 29.47PLAT – 5.00 = 1421.00 Today we are proud to present Evan Greenberg’s Top 10 for 2012. 10. USHS – U.S. Home Systems =$7.24 9. TGE – TGC Industries =7.16 8. DLA – Delta Apparel = 19.25 7. PESI – Perma-Fix Solutions = 1.56 6. ANIK – Anika Therapeutics = 9.60 5. FRD – Friedman Industries = 11.29 4. CECE – CECO Environmental = 5.67 3. CVU – CPI Aerostructures = 13.03 2. ACET – Aceto Corp = 6.83 1.HURC – Hurco Companies = 21.58 The top 10 List is presented in no particular order. It is small & micro cap stocks only. I’ve given today’s price. We will come back at the end of 2012 and see how we did; no trading during the year to try to manipulate the results. Over the years, the TOP Ten List has proven to be incredibly profitable. You’re welcome. To contact Evan send email to: Egreenberg@legendcap.com Data continued to point to a stronger U.S. economy. More than twice the expected number of private sector jobs were added in December while initial jobless claims dropped 15,000 in the latest week. In addition, the pace of U.S. services growth quickened more than expected in December. Bank stocks were moving generally higher today. This was not based upon great fundamental news, even though the spin-meisters tried to paint that rosy …

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January, Wednesday 04, 2012

DOW +21 = 12418SPX +0.24 = 1277NAS –0.36 = 264810 YR YLD +.04 = 2.00%OIL +.29 = 103.25GOLD +8.90 = 1613.50SILV -.55 = 29.26PLAT –12.00 = 1427.00 Bill Gross manages PIMCO’s $244 billion Total Return Fund, the largest bond fund in the world. Every so often, Gross posts an investment letter on his website. His most recent letter is entitled “Welcome to 2012”. In the letter, Gross said “paranormal” was a more fitting description for the current economic environment than the phrase “New Normal,” coined several years ago by his chief co-investment officer Mohamed El-Erian to describe a world of low-growth and high unemployment. This year, Gross argues that process will get messier. “We are left with zero-bound yields and creditors that trust no one and very few countries. The financial markets are slowly imploding – delevering – because there’s too much paper and too little trust,” he said. Those factors may lead financial markets to experience “the fat-left-tailed possibility of unforeseen – delevering – or the fat-right-tailed possibility of central bank inflationary expansion.” So, this goes right in line with what I’ve been talking about for quite some time. The situation in Europe, the ongoing situation in the USSA all points to de-levering and the response to de-levering by the central bankers – especially the Federal Reserve – is to pump free money into the markets. That’s really about all they can figure out to do, because they don’t know what else to do. They need the economy to …

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January, Tuesday 03, 2012

DOW + 201 = 12418SPX + 21 = 1278NAS +44 = 264910 YR YLD +.09 = 1.96%OIL +4.22 = 103.05GOLD +37.20 = 1604.60SILV +1.85 = 29.81 (biggest % gain in 3 years)PLAT + 32.00 = 1435.00 Here is the basic question for investing in 2012: will we see a turnaround? Will we see economic growth or is the economy so inherently damaged that you should fear it and possibly short it? The Federal Reserve has been driving the bus, so let’s start there. The Fed has been active in Quantitative Easing. This means the Fed has been adding tremendous amounts of money into the financial system by selling treasuries directly from the government to the big banks at auction.  The Fed then purchases the treasuries from the big banks, also known as primary institutions, and pays the banks by crediting their accounts. The big banks get paid for holding the treasuries in reserve. And the big banks now have new “cash” for their banking activities. You have to think the Fed intervention had something to do with treasury bonds posting one of their biggest annual gains last year. Further, the Fed has a ZIRP Policy, or Zero Interest Rate Policy. The Fed has held interest rates to the big banks at near zero for the past 3 years, and they announced today they will communicate any intention to change the ZIRP – there will be no surprise interest rate hikes, but eventually there must surely be an interest rate hike. …

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Financial Review

Tuesday, January 03, 2012

DOW + 201 = 12418SPX + 21 = 1278NAS +44 = 264910 YR YLD +.09 = 1.96%OIL +4.22 = 103.05GOLD +37.20 = 1604.60SILV +1.85 = 29.81 (biggest % gain in 3 years)PLAT + 32.00 = 1435.00 Here is the basic question for investing in 2012: will we see a turnaround? Will we see economic growth or is the economy so inherently damaged that you should fear it and possibly short it? The Federal Reserve has been driving the bus, so let’s start there. The Fed has been active in Quantitative Easing. This means the Fed has been adding tremendous amounts of money into the financial system by selling treasuries directly from the government to the big banks at auction.  The Fed then purchases the treasuries from the big banks, also known as primary institutions, and pays the banks by crediting their accounts. The big banks get paid for holding the treasuries in reserve. And the big banks now have new “cash” for their banking activities. You have to think the Fed intervention had something to do with treasury bonds posting one of their biggest annual gains last year. Further, the Fed has a ZIRP Policy, or Zero Interest Rate Policy. The Fed has held interest rates to the big banks at near zero for the past 3 years, and they announced today they will communicate any intention to change the ZIRP – there will be no surprise interest rate hikes, but eventually there must surely be an interest rate hike. …

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December, Friday 30, 2011

DOW – 69 = 12,217SPX –5.42 = 1257.60NAS – 8 = 260510 YR YLD -.03 = 1.87%OIL -.65 = 99.00GOLD =20.90 = 1567.40SILV +.09 = 27.96PLAT +30.00 = 1403.00 One year ago DOW = 11,577.51SPX = 1257.64NAS = 2652.8710 YR YLD =3.31% OIL =79.36GOLD = 1410.25SILV =30.63PLAT =1731.00 US Dollar Index 78.22 on 12/31/2010  & 80.57 on 12/30/2011 Auld Ange Syne – the song always make me miss people, though I’m not sure whom I’m to be missing specifically; I suppose there’s always somebody, isn’t ther? The Pacific island nation of Samoa is taking 186,000 citizens through a national time warp by moving west of the international dateline, forfeiting the last Friday of 2011 and jumping straight from Thursday into Saturday. So, it’s Saturday in Samoa. It never was Friday. For Samoans, this solves a practical question: Why remain 18 to 23 hours behind chief trade partners Australia and New Zealand? Of course, it doesn’t answer the question: Why didn’t they do this on a Monday? The worst performer among the Dow 30 industrial stocks? Bank of America – which isn’t really an industrial stock to begin with. BofA was down 58% for the year, wiping out $80 billion of shareholder value. The bank also ended 2011 last in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Financials Index and the KBW Bank Index. It was BofA’s worst annual performance since 2008, when it dropped 66 percent. Other big banks performed poorly. Citigroup dropped 44%, JPMorgan Chase dropped 22%, Goldman Sachs dropped 46%, …

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December, Thursday 29, 2011

DOW +135 = 12287SPX +13 = 1263NAS +23 = 261310 YR YLD -.01 = 1.90OIL +.45 = 99.81GOLD – 10.80 = 1546.50SILV +.62 = 27.87PLAT –18.00 = 1377.00 Or listen to this http://www.moneyradio1510.com/Audio-Archive You always have to be careful when you read the news or watch it on TV or listen to it on the radio or the web of internets. Take this snippet from the AP: “The European Central Bank said banks had parked $590.72 billion with it overnight, surpassing the record set only Monday. That means European banks were less willing to take the risk of making short-term loans to each other, opting instead to earn low interest rates from the ECB. The move shook confidence in the euro currency, which dropped to $1.2910 at one point on Wednesday — its lowest level against the dollar in nearly a year.” It seems fairly straightforward, however the big problem is that the bankers aren’t earning anything – they are being given a gift – a gift of money stolen from taxpayers. The banks are not working for the money, they are not producing anything, and you would have to be brain dead to believe the banks are “earning” anything in this situation. The next problem is that European banks aren’t making short-term loans to each other because they all know what they have on their own books, and if the other banks hold the same garbage on their books (and they do) then all the banks are essentially insolvent …

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December, Wednesday 28, 2011

DOW –139 = 12,151SPX –15 = 1249NAS –35 = 258910 YR YLD -.10 = 1.91%OIL –1.75 = 99.59GOLD –36.00 = 1557.30SILV –1.58 = 27.25PLAT –42.00 = 1390.00 The Euro fell to its lowest level against the dollar in nearly a year. Italy held an auction of short-term bonds; it went well, but there is another auction tomorrow. Eurozone banks are reportedly hoarding the cash injected by the European Central Bank, and not lending the money out – for some reason, some investors found this news alarming, even though it is straight out of the Federal Reserve playbook. Oil prices fell after Saudi Arabia said it will offset any loss of oil from a threatened Iranian blockade of a crucial tanker route in the Middle East.The US Navy warned that any disruption of traffic through the vital Strait of Hormuz “will not be tolerated.” Pretty much everything was down in the US markets, and the S&P 500 moved back into negative territory for the year. It’s that time of year where everybody is putting together lists of this that and the other for the old year and the new year. I ran across a good list on the Calculatedrisk blog. It’s a list of the top 10 economic questions for 2012. it’s a good list because it just asks questions and doesn’t give answers. 1) House Prices: How much further will house prices fall on the national repeat sales indexes (Case-Shiller, CoreLogic)?  2) Residential Investment: Residential investment (RI) made a modest positive contribution to GDP growth …

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December, Tuesday 27, 2011

DOW – 2 = 12,291SPX +0.1 = 1265NAS + 6 = 262510 YR YLD -.02 = 2.01%OIL +1.59 = 101.27GOLD –14.70 = 1593.00SILV -.40 = 28.83PLAT +2.00 = 1437.00 How do you feel? Good, yeah? You not only made it over the river; you made it through the woods; you’ve almost made it holidays and you are oh so close to surviving 2011 – no small feat. The Conference Board index of consumer confidence jumped to 64.5 this month from a revised 55.2 in November. Consumer confidence is up nearly 25 points in the past three months and now sits at its highest level since April. Consumers are more optimistic that business conditions, employment prospects and their financial situations will continue to get better. Yep, the American consumer is unfazed and confident – maybe it’s that $41 billion in unspent gift cards we’ve squirreled away for a rainy day. Apparently holiday cheer is contagious. Each year the Associated Press surveys top economists, strategists, and analysts to peer into their crystal balls and prognosticate. The big thinkers say stocks will gain 10% in 2012. U.S. companies are generating record profits. Americans are spending more than expected and factories are producing more. The job market is showing a pulse – weak, but a pulse. The economy has generated at least 100,000 new jobs for five months in a row — the longest such streak since 2006. The economists expect the country to create 177,000 jobs a month through Election Day 2012. That would …

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December, Friday 23, 2011

DOW + 124=12,294SPX +11 = 1265NAS + 19=261810 YR YLD +.08 = 2.03%OIL +.33 = 99.86GOLD + 1.60 = 1608.00 SILV unchanged = 29.23PLAT +6.00 = 1425.00 Not much economic news to propel the markets into the holiday weekend. Lets cover the data points quickly: Seasonally adjusted annual rate for sales of new single-family houses increased to 315,000 last month. The pace of sales is up 9.8% from the prior year. The median sales price fell to $214,100 in November from $222,600 in October. Durable-goods orders rose 3.8% in November. For some reason, there was a huge surge in airplane orders. Go figure. Personal income rose 0.1% in November, as consumer spending also gained 0.1%. At this pace we’ll see income get back to where we were in December 2007 in another 5 years, not counting inflation. Yesterday we talked about the sweetheart deal the Departmetn of justice offered Bank of America to settle allegations of discrimination against 200,000 clients of Countrywide. The American ideal of “equal and impartial justice under law” has repeatedly been undermined by attempts to concentrate power.  Our political system has many advantages, but it also provides motive and opportunity for resourceful people to become so strong they can elude the legal constraints that bind others.  The most obvious example is the oil and railroad trusts at the end of the nineteenth century.  A version of the same process is happening again today but what has become concentrated is not a vital energy source or the nation’s …

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December, Wednesday 21, 2011

DOW + 4 = 12,107SPX +2 = 1243NAS –25 = 257710 YR YLD +.04 = 1.97 OIL +1.78 = 99.02GOLD – .20 = 1616.00SILV -.24 = 29.42PLAT – 4.00 = 1434.00 For the past few months you’ve been hearing me telling you the Europeans were going to follow the Federal Reserve Playbook. I’ve told you there were lots of bright boys and girls who believe they have learned valuable lessons from the near collapse of 2008, and they would apply those lesson in Europe, with subtitles. And yet, for the past three months you’ve also heard stories about how the European Central Bank, the ECB has claimed they won’t be the lender of last resort, they won’t act like the Federal Reserve. You’ve heard how the ECB does not have a mandate to do the things the Fed does. Today, the ECB reported that it had doled out almost half a trillion euros, or about $640 billion dollars, in low-cost three-year loans to 523 Euro banks to keep credit flowing at a time when European banks are finding it all but impossible to finance their operations through normal market channels. I told you a little about this yesterday, and today we are getting confirmation. Here is how it works: in exchange for collateral, lenders borrowed at the ECB’s benchmark interest rate, currently 1 percent; then they use the funds to purchase the debt of euro zone governments, pocketing the difference as profit. Spanish bonds, for example, yield around 3.4 percent …

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