Financial Review

Watching Paint Dry

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-23-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..The most boring market ever. 401Ks are safe from tax reform. The fight over arbitration clauses. Abe wins snap election. Amazon ponders HQ2. The rent is too damn high. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-23-2017

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Financial Review

Milk and Cookies

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-12-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSRecord high close for Dow industrials and S&P 500. It’s raining yen. BOE plans rate cuts. Global stocks erase losses. IMF says Brexit impact is negligible on US. Inventories barely rose. Job openings lower. Small biz sentiment up again. EU-US Privacy Shield is big deal for big data. The Hague rules against China. Happy Prime Day. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 07-12-2016

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Financial Review

Earnings Reporting Season

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-11-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSS&P 500 hits a record high as earnings season kicks off. AA example. Good luck, you’ll need it. Oil hits 2 month low. Prime Minister May in UK. Turnbull down under. Abenomics revisited. UFC sold peacefully. Thomson Reuters IP & Science sold smartly. Prime Day cometh. Celebrate with a Slurpee or chicken (your call). Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 07-11-2016

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Financial Review

Nobody Knows Normalization

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-12-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 02-12-2016   DOW + 313 = 15,973 SPX + 35 = 1864 NAS + 70 = 4337 10 Y + .10 = 1.75% OIL + 2.77 = 28.98 GOLD – 9.40 = 1238.00 The Nikkei Stock Average finished down 11% for the week, its biggest weekly percentage drop since October 2008. For the day, the index ended off 4.8% at 14,952, the lowest since October 2014. The Nikkei is down 21% year-to-date. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe held a meeting with his top financial diplomat today, as well as the BOJ’s governor, following a report that the “architect of Abenomics” called for a Group of 20-wide response to the recent market rout. Friday’s high-level gathering came as the country’s stock markets plunged again and the yen hit highs not seen since October 2014. Speculation is also rampant that Tokyo could conduct yen-selling intervention.     The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index of mainland Chinese companies trading in Hong Kong fell 2% Friday and was off 6.8% for the week. Trading was halted on the Kosdaq, the smaller cap, tech focused exchange in South Korea as the index dropped by more than 8%.     Here in the US, we’re not quite in bear territory for the major indices: the Nasdaq dropped 18% from last summer’s high; the S&P 500 dropped 15% from last year’s high.     And then …

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Financial Review

Don’t Bet the Farm

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-16-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-16-2015 DOW + 140 = 16,739 SPX + 17 = 1995 NAS + 28 = 4889 10 YR YLD + .02 = 2.30% OIL + 2.56 = 47.15 GOLD + 14.10 = 1120.20 SILV + .53 = 15.03   The cost of consumer goods fell in August for the first time since the beginning of the year, owing mostly to another sharp drop in gasoline prices as the summer driving season came to an end. The consumer price index, or the cost of living, fell by a seasonally adjusted 0.1% last month. That’s the first decline since January. Retail prices are up just 0.2% in the past year. Excluding food and energy, so-called core consumer prices rose 0.1% in August. Core prices have risen just 1.8% in the past 12 months, unchanged from in July.   Energy prices declined 2% in August. Most of the relief came in the form of lower prices at the pump. The cost of a regular gallon of gas fell about 8% last month. The price of fuel had risen three straight months before the decline in August. Still, energy prices are down 15% over the past year. Food prices rose again, however. They increased 0.2% in August, spurred by higher costs of eggs, fruits and vegetables. The cost of airline tickets dropped for the second straight month. The price of new cars and …

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Financial Review

Patience For Now

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-13-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 145 = 17,749 SPX – 12 = 2053 NAS –  21 =  4871 10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.11% OIL – 2.05 = 45.00 At one point today, the Dow was down 250, so it could have been worse. For the week, the Dow was down 0.6% and the S&P 500 fell 0.9%. The Nasdaq was down 1.1% for the week. Today is Friday the 13th. All I can say is pure coincidence. We looked at the market for 148 Friday the 13ths, going back to 1928, there is no particular trend. In the last week of January we saw oil prices drop to right around the $45 a barrel level, with intraday lows of $44.37, but the daily closing price hovering just a little above $45. And in February, prices popped up to touch $55.05; prices challenging $55 on 3 days, and could not break out. So, now we are back to challenging support at $45. And waiting to see if the trading range will break down.   The International Energy Agency says oil prices remain fragile due to unrelenting production by US shale-oil producers. There has been an expectation that oil producers would cut back production in response to lower oil prices, but the IEA  report shows oil production in the US has increased by 115,000 barrels, and now we’re running out of places to store the …

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Financial Review

Halloween Treats

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-31-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW + 195 = 17,390 SPX + 23 = 2018 NAS + 64 = 4630 10 YR YLD + .03 = 2.33% OIL – .44 = 80.68 GOLD – 25.90 = 1173.90 SILV – .28 = 16.28 Record highs, again. Back on September 19th, the Dow hit a record high close of 17,279. And then we watched the market tumbled for nearly a month. On October 17th we told you about a bullish reversal pattern, and it has been a strong move to new highs; up 1,100 from when I called the reversal, and up 1,545 from the lows of October 15. Also, a new closing high for the S&P 500, however, we did not take out the intraday high of 2019 from September 19. Let’s break down the moves for the month of October. The Dow is up 248. The S&P added 46 points. The Nasdaq is up 137 points for October to a 14-1/2 year high. In October we saw the yield on the 10 year note drop 18 basis points from 2.51%. Gold took a hard fall on Friday, at one point trading at levels not seen since 2010. And of course, a big move in oil down 10.75 a barrel. If you are looking for a really dramatic move, the Russell 2000 index of small cap stocks has bounced from a low of 1046 on October 13, to …

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Financial Review

Let Slip the Cats of War

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-28-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS08282014 Financial Review for Thursday LISTEN HERE DOW – 42 = 17,079 SPX – 3 = 1996 NAS – 11 = 4557 10 YR YLD – .03 = 2.33% OIL + .57 = 94.45 GOLD + 6.50 = 1290.20 SILV + .05 = 19.58 Since falling to a near three-month low on Aug. 7, the S&P 500 index had risen for 11 of the prior 14 sessions, pushing it above 2,000 for the previous two days. However, the new highs came on some of the lightest trading volume of the year. Markets don’t go up in a straight line. However, the big round numbers are usually bullish. Two weeks after the passing of such a big, round number, the S&P 500 averages a 1% gain and is positive 79% of the time. Three months later, the index averages a 3.6% gain and is positive 89% of the time. When the S&P 500 surpassed 1900 back in May, it rallied for another five straight days and nine of the next 10. This time, the sight of the big, round 2,000 mark got traders so excite, they just screwed it up right away. The Commerce Department has released its first revision of the second quarter GDP. Gross domestic product grew 4.2%, up from the initial reading of 4%. First quarter GDP was negative; the economy contracted by 2.1%. So, part of the second quarter growth reflects …

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Financial Review

Thursday, June 05, 2014 – The European Central Bank Has Done Something

The European Central Bank Has Done Something by Sinclair Noe   DOW + 98 = 16,836 SPX + 12 = 1940 NAS + 44 = 4296 10 YR YLD – .02 = 2.58% OIL – .18 = 102.46 GOLD + 9.60 = 1254.20 SILV + .24 = 19.04   The Dow and the S&P finished with record high closes.   We start in Europe. The European Central Bank has done something. No, I’m serious, they did something; not just talked about doing “whatever it takes”, they actually took some action; nothing terribly bold; probably not enough, but something. Specifically, the ECB cut its benchmark interest rate to 0.15% from 0.25%, and the deposit rate to minus 0.10% from zero. The rate cuts will take effect next week, on June 11. They are trying the  negative interest rate, which has never been tried on a large scale, in a bid to push down the value of the euro and encourage banks to invest excess cash rather than hoard it in central bank vaults.   The ECB will also begin offering four-year loans to banks at the benchmark interest rates, under conditions meant to ensure that lenders use the money to issue loans to businesses. The loans are designed so that they can’t just borrow the money from the ECB at 0.15% and toss it into government bonds.   Also, the ECB will start buying packages of loans, or asset-backed securities; another measure designed to push lending to small businesses; right now …

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