Financial Review

Times Change

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-30-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-30-2015   DOW + 235 = 16,284 SPX + 35 = 1920 NAS + 102 = 4620 10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.06% OIL – .14 = 45.09 GOLD – 12.40 = 1116.30 SILV – .13 = 14.62   This is the last trading day of the third quarter. China’s main stock market posted its worst quarter since 2008 and its smaller Shenzhen index, posted its worst quarter in at least two decades. Markets in Singapore and Indonesia are set to post their worst quarters since the financial crisis. The MSCI Asia ex-Japan Index fell 19.1% from the beginning of the quarter. The Nikkei closed out its worst quarter since 2010 and the ASX its worst since 2011.   European stocks moved higher today, but not enough to recover from the worst quarter in 4 years. The Stoxx Europe 600 index is down about 9.5% for the quarter. Germany’s DAX index down 12% for the quarter. France’s CAC index posted a quarterly loss of 7.3%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 down 7.7%. The Eurozone is back in deflation. Consumer prices slipped 0.1% year-over-year in September.   The major U.S. averages had a rough third quarter. Concerns about spillover from slowdown in China and the timing of a Federal Reserve rate hike sent markets into correction territory, or more than 10 percent below their 52-week highs, in late August. …

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Financial Review

Carry On

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-02-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:14 — 12.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-02-2015   DOW + 293 = 16351 SPX + 35 = 1948 NAS + 113 = 4749 10 YR YLD + .02 = 2.19% OIL + .59 = 46.00 GOLD – 6.10 = 1134.70 SILV + .08 = 14.80   For the first 8 ½ months of the year, stocks traded in a very tight range, for the most part. We had an occasional triple digit move on the Dow, but that was the exception – now it looks like the norm. Investors have weathered over two weeks of unusually wide-swinging trade that has left the S&P 500 with its worst monthly drop in three years and a loss of 8.5 percent from an all-time high in May. There really isn’t anything that would tell you today marks some kind of recovery, rather it is just volatility and turbulence. Get used to it. Keep calm and carry on.   World markets were a bit more sanguine today; the Shanghai Composite stabilized, but still closed just slightly lower. Nine Chinese brokerages pledged additional funds to purchase shares, answering fresh government calls to support equities. Investors may see the trend continue. Shanghai’s stock market will be closed Thursday and Friday as China commemorates the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II.   U.S. index provider MSCI has declared the market gyrations in China, and a barrage of interventions by the …

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Financial Review

Sunlight is the Best Disinfectant

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-05-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-05-2015 DOW – 10 = 17,540 SPX + 6 = 2099 NAS + 34 = 5139 10 YR YLD + .06 = 2.27% OIL – .59 = 45.15 GOLD – 3.00 = 1085.50 SILV + .02 = 14.69   Private-sector hiring slowed in July. Employers added 185,000 private-sector jobs in July, down from 229,000 jobs in June, and below the average pace for the past six months. Gains slowed across all size-firms except large firms in July. Manufacturing employment has slowed sharply since the beginning of the year. The ADP report sometimes offers a hint of what we might expect from the monthly government report on jobs, which will be released Friday. Strength or weakness in the labor market is thought to be a key factor in the Federal Reserve’s decision to possibly hike interest rates in September.   The Institute for Supply Management said its services index surged to 60.3% from a 56% reading in June. Any reading above 50% indicates expansion. It was the highest reading since 2005. The business activity and new orders components both were over 60%, and the employment index increased 6.9 percentage points to 59.6%. We’ll have more details on the ISM report in our next segment.   Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said it would take “significant deterioration” in the U.S. economy for him to not support a rate hike in …

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Financial Review

The Greek Unknown

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-01-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 138 = 17,757 SPX + 14 = 2077 NAS + 26 = 5013 10 YR YLD + .09 = 2.42% OIL – .02 = 56.94 GOLD – 4.30 = 1169.30 SILV – .12 = 15.65   Let’s start today with some economic data. ADP reports private-sector hiring picked up in June, as employers added 237,000 jobs. The monthly jobs report from the Labor Department will be released tomorrow; it includes private sector plus government jobs. The consensus guestimate is for about 225,000 new jobs last month.   Construction spending rose 0.8% in May to a seasonally adjusted $1.04 trillion. Spending rose 0.3% for residential projects, and 1.5% for nonresidential projects. The Commerce Department revised April’s result to 2.1%.   Manufacturers grew in June at the fastest rate since the start of 2015. The Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing index rose to 53.5% last month from 52.8% in May, matching its highest level of this year. Readings over 50% indicate more companies are expanding instead of shrinking. The employment gauge jumped 3.8 points to 55.5%. The ISM’s new-orders index edged up to 56.0% from 55.8%.   The second and final Markit reading of U.S. manufacturing conditions in June was revised up to 53.6 from a preliminary 53.4, but the index was still at its lowest level since October 2013.   Overnight, Greece defaulted on its $1.8 billion …

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Financial Review

A Perfect Gift

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-03-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 64 = 18,076 SPX + 4 = 2114 NAS + 22 = 5099 10 YR YLD + .10 = 2.37% OIL – 1.68 = 59.58 GOLD – 7.70 = 1186.00 SILV – .27 = 16.58   The U.S. trade deficit narrowed in April on a drop in imports. The Commerce Department said the trade gap narrowed to $40 billion from March’s revised deficit of $50 billion. The 26 percent drop in the April trade deficit was the largest decrease since early 2009 and reflects a surge in imports in March following the end of a West Coast ports labor dispute.   Service industries expanded in May at the slowest pace in 13 months. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing index, which includes an array of industries from real estate to dining, declined to 55.7 from April’s 57.8. Readings above 50 signal expansion. Limited growth in orders reflects an American consumer who has been saving the extra cash from low gasoline prices and rising employment rather than spending it. Arts and entertainment, real-estate firms and rental companies led the list of the 15 non-manufacturing industries that reported growth in May. Mining, which includes oil extraction, contracted. An index of employment in service industries dropped to 55.3 in May from 56.7.   Payrolls processor ADP reports private employers added 201,000 jobs in May, the most since January. The ADP data …

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Financial Review

Corporate Clout

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-01-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 77 = 17,698 SPX – 8 = 2059 NAS – 20 = 4880 10 YR YLD – .06 = 1.87% OIL + 2.49 = 50.09 GOLD + 20.40 = 1204.10 SILV + .30 = 17.04   The first quarter is done; Among the winners: the S&P 500 pulled out a modest gain for the ninth consecutive winning quarter; healthcare was the best performing sector in the S&P 500, up 7.4%; utilities were the biggest decliners in the index, down 5.8%. The Nasdaq Composite posted its ninth consecutive quarterly gain (the first time ever). The Dow Industrials posted a small loss year to date. Oil dropped just over 14% for the quarter. The first quarter’s best-performing exchange-traded products include China, Japan, and solar. The first quarter’s worst-performing exchange-traded products include plays on Brazilian stocks, coffee and volatility.   In many ways, the dollar set the tone across markets in the first three months of the year. The dollar index, hit a 12-year high during the quarter. The strong dollar, or at least the pace of its rise, played havoc with earnings of large multinationals who rely heavily on foreign sales. Meanwhile, commodity markets also saw pressure from a stronger dollar.   Treasuries saw price gains in the first quarter. The yield on the 10 year note dropped from 2.17% to 1.93%. The total return in the Treasury market overall, including price …

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Financial Review

Sometimes Brazenly

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-04-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:14 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 106 = 18,096 SPX – 9 = 2098 NAS – 12 = 4967 10 YR YLD un = 2.12% OIL + 1.26 = 51.78 Private-sector employment gains continued in February but at a slower pace than in the prior month. Automatic Data Processing Inc. reported Wednesday that employers added 212,000 jobs last month. On Friday, we’ll get the non-farm payroll report for February; it is expected the economy added about 235,000 jobs last month.   The Congressional Budget Office estimates the Treasury Department will exhaust its capacity to borrow in October or November if the debt limit isn’t raised. The debt limit is suspended until March 15. After that date, so-called extraordinary measures available to the Treasury to keep borrowing include deferring new investments in federal retirement and disability funds.   The U.S. Supreme Court is considering the fate of Obamacare for the second time in three years, weighing an attack on tax credits designed to help millions of people afford insurance. The Court heard arguments today in the case of King v. Burwell, an appeal by four Virginia residents who would block the subsidies in at least 34 states. The fight centers on a four-word phrase that has become a linchpin of the law. The measure says people qualify for tax credits when they buy insurance on an online marketplace “established by the state.” The challengers …

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Financial Review

Up, Down – Take Your Pick

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-04-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS  Financial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 6 = 17,673 SPX – 8 = 2041 NAS – 11 = 4716 10 YR YLD + .02 = 1.80% OIL – 4.49 = 48.56 GOLD + 8.80 = 1269.90 SILV + .06 = 17.43   ADP reports private-sector employment gains slowed in January as employers added 213,000 jobs. ADP revised December’s gain to 253,000 from a prior estimate of 241,000. The non-farm payroll report (that’s the government’s big monthly jobs report) comes out Friday morning; it is expected the economy added about 245,000 jobs in January, down from 252,000 in December.   The Institute for Supply Management said its nonmanufacturing index edged up to 56.7% in January from 56.5% in December. Readings over 50% signal that more businesses are expanding instead of contracting. The good news is that new orders remained very healthy. The index measuring fresh demand rose a few ticks to 59.5% and remained close to a post-recession high. On the downside, the employment gauge fell 4.1 points to 51.6%, marking the lowest level in 11 months. It was also the second worst reading in 20 months. So, on the jobs front, we should still see gains, just not as strong as the past few months.   Gallup’s Job Creation Index came in at plus 28 for the month of January. This is nearly identical to the plus 27 found in December, and just below …

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Financial Review

Columbo Fed

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-07-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 212 = 17,584 SPX + 23 = 2025 NAS + 57 = 4650 10 YR YLD – .01 = 1.95% OIL + .59 = 48.52 GOLD – 8.20 = 1212.10 SILV – .02 = 16.63 After the holidays we are finally starting to get back to economic data. Let’s start with the ADP payroll report, which shows 241,000 net new private sector jobs for December. Breaking down that number, private-sector service providers added 194,000 jobs, while goods producers added 46,000 jobs. By company size, small businesses added 106,000 private-sector jobs, large businesses added 54,000 and medium businesses added 70,000. The Labor Department reports on jobs Friday morning and we tend to look to the ADP report as a precursor to the government’s monthly report, but it isn’t a real accurate predictor. Last month the government reported 321,000 new jobs and ADP initially showed 208,000 for November. Still, we are probably looking for around 220,000 to 240,000 new jobs on Friday and today’s report was in line with that estimate. Meanwhile, Gallup has its own Job Creation Index which ended 2014 at plus 27 in December, eight points higher than where it started in January. The index has remained between plus 27 and plus 28 since May; essentially it has remained at the same level for the past eight months, suggesting the job market plateaued in the latter …

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Financial Review

More Jobs

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-12-03-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 33 = 17912 SPX + 7 =2074 NAS + 18 = 4774 10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.29% OIL + .49 = 67.37 GOLD + 11.60 = 1211.10 SILV – .04 = 16.52 Record high for the Dow Industrials and the S&P 500. About 2 weeks before the Federal Reserve FOMC meets to determine monetary policy they gather together reports from across the nation on how the economy is doing; the Fed then binds those reports in a Beige folder, or what we call the Beige Book. As the name would imply, the Beige Book is not always a page turner, but it can provide some useful information as well as an indicator of what the Fed policymakers are thinking, and then there is the occasional surprise nugget of information. The Beige Book was released today and it shows the US economy holding up well despite global slowing; economic activity continued to expand in October and November, with lower gasoline prices boosting consumer spending. Despite a sharp drop in crude oil prices, drilling activity in shale production districts remained steady; oil and gas exploration activity decreased in North Dakota and increased in Montana relative to a month earlier; production remained at record levels. Lower oil prices have some oil companies concerned and closely monitoring prices, which are close to many firms’ breakeven price. Employment gains were …

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