Financial Review

Two Paths Diverge

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-12-02-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 12-02-2015 DOW – 158 = 17,729 SPX – 23 = 2079 NAS – 33 = 5123 10 YR YLD + .03 = 2.18 OIL – 1.67 = 40.1 GOLD – 15.60 = 1054.20   American businesses stepped up hiring last month, led by strong gains in retail, finance and other service industries. Payroll processor ADP says that private companies added 217,000 jobs last month, the most in five months. Service sector firms added 204,000, while manufacturers hired just 6,000. The figures come just two days before the government issues its official jobs report for November. If the Friday jobs report is anywhere close to today’s ADP report, it might lock in a rate hike at the Fed FOMC meeting in two weeks.   The productivity of American businesses was higher in the third quarter than initially reported — but so were labor costs. Newly revised government figures show that productivity rose at a 2.2% annual rate instead of 1.6%. Unit-labor costs were revised higher to show a 1.8% annual increase in the third quarter, and second quarter costs were revised higher. As a result, the year-over-year increase in labor costs climbed to a 3% rate, the highest level in six quarters. Unit-labor costs reflect how much it costs a business to produce one unit of output, such as a refrigerator or a ton of steel.   The Fed published …

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Financial Review

A Twisted Duck

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-04-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-04-2015 DOW – 50 = 17,867 SPX – 7 = 2102 NAS – 2 = 5142 10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.23% OIL – 1.38 = 46.52 GOLD – 9.70 = 1108.50 SILV – .20 = 15.16   Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen testified before the House Financial Services Committee today. Yellen reiterated that the Fed could raise its benchmark interest rate in December; she said a rate hike “could be appropriate”; the economy is “performing well”; she expects economic growth to continue; the Fed is inclined to raise rates; however, “no decision has been made.”   Many of the Fed’s immediate concerns have come and gone without catastrophe. The global financial markets are slogging along, and Congress managed to pass a budget and raise the debt ceiling. So, there are only a couple of potential impediments between now and a December rate hike. First is the Friday jobs report; if the payroll growth is in line with expectations, or a bit better, and if that report can be followed with another solid jobs report in early December; plus no stumbles on the GDP numbers, plus some hint of inflation, then Yellen says, “December would be a live possibility.”   We could also draw up a list of reasons why the Fed might want to wait: persistent long-term unemployment, weak growth in third quarter GDP, no signs …

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Financial Review

Times Change

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-30-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-30-2015   DOW + 235 = 16,284 SPX + 35 = 1920 NAS + 102 = 4620 10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.06% OIL – .14 = 45.09 GOLD – 12.40 = 1116.30 SILV – .13 = 14.62   This is the last trading day of the third quarter. China’s main stock market posted its worst quarter since 2008 and its smaller Shenzhen index, posted its worst quarter in at least two decades. Markets in Singapore and Indonesia are set to post their worst quarters since the financial crisis. The MSCI Asia ex-Japan Index fell 19.1% from the beginning of the quarter. The Nikkei closed out its worst quarter since 2010 and the ASX its worst since 2011.   European stocks moved higher today, but not enough to recover from the worst quarter in 4 years. The Stoxx Europe 600 index is down about 9.5% for the quarter. Germany’s DAX index down 12% for the quarter. France’s CAC index posted a quarterly loss of 7.3%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 down 7.7%. The Eurozone is back in deflation. Consumer prices slipped 0.1% year-over-year in September.   The major U.S. averages had a rough third quarter. Concerns about spillover from slowdown in China and the timing of a Federal Reserve rate hike sent markets into correction territory, or more than 10 percent below their 52-week highs, in late August. …

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Financial Review

Carry On

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-02-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:14 — 12.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-02-2015   DOW + 293 = 16351 SPX + 35 = 1948 NAS + 113 = 4749 10 YR YLD + .02 = 2.19% OIL + .59 = 46.00 GOLD – 6.10 = 1134.70 SILV + .08 = 14.80   For the first 8 ½ months of the year, stocks traded in a very tight range, for the most part. We had an occasional triple digit move on the Dow, but that was the exception – now it looks like the norm. Investors have weathered over two weeks of unusually wide-swinging trade that has left the S&P 500 with its worst monthly drop in three years and a loss of 8.5 percent from an all-time high in May. There really isn’t anything that would tell you today marks some kind of recovery, rather it is just volatility and turbulence. Get used to it. Keep calm and carry on.   World markets were a bit more sanguine today; the Shanghai Composite stabilized, but still closed just slightly lower. Nine Chinese brokerages pledged additional funds to purchase shares, answering fresh government calls to support equities. Investors may see the trend continue. Shanghai’s stock market will be closed Thursday and Friday as China commemorates the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II.   U.S. index provider MSCI has declared the market gyrations in China, and a barrage of interventions by the …

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Financial Review

Sunlight is the Best Disinfectant

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-05-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-05-2015 DOW – 10 = 17,540 SPX + 6 = 2099 NAS + 34 = 5139 10 YR YLD + .06 = 2.27% OIL – .59 = 45.15 GOLD – 3.00 = 1085.50 SILV + .02 = 14.69   Private-sector hiring slowed in July. Employers added 185,000 private-sector jobs in July, down from 229,000 jobs in June, and below the average pace for the past six months. Gains slowed across all size-firms except large firms in July. Manufacturing employment has slowed sharply since the beginning of the year. The ADP report sometimes offers a hint of what we might expect from the monthly government report on jobs, which will be released Friday. Strength or weakness in the labor market is thought to be a key factor in the Federal Reserve’s decision to possibly hike interest rates in September.   The Institute for Supply Management said its services index surged to 60.3% from a 56% reading in June. Any reading above 50% indicates expansion. It was the highest reading since 2005. The business activity and new orders components both were over 60%, and the employment index increased 6.9 percentage points to 59.6%. We’ll have more details on the ISM report in our next segment.   Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said it would take “significant deterioration” in the U.S. economy for him to not support a rate hike in …

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Financial Review

The Greek Unknown

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-01-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 138 = 17,757 SPX + 14 = 2077 NAS + 26 = 5013 10 YR YLD + .09 = 2.42% OIL – .02 = 56.94 GOLD – 4.30 = 1169.30 SILV – .12 = 15.65   Let’s start today with some economic data. ADP reports private-sector hiring picked up in June, as employers added 237,000 jobs. The monthly jobs report from the Labor Department will be released tomorrow; it includes private sector plus government jobs. The consensus guestimate is for about 225,000 new jobs last month.   Construction spending rose 0.8% in May to a seasonally adjusted $1.04 trillion. Spending rose 0.3% for residential projects, and 1.5% for nonresidential projects. The Commerce Department revised April’s result to 2.1%.   Manufacturers grew in June at the fastest rate since the start of 2015. The Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing index rose to 53.5% last month from 52.8% in May, matching its highest level of this year. Readings over 50% indicate more companies are expanding instead of shrinking. The employment gauge jumped 3.8 points to 55.5%. The ISM’s new-orders index edged up to 56.0% from 55.8%.   The second and final Markit reading of U.S. manufacturing conditions in June was revised up to 53.6 from a preliminary 53.4, but the index was still at its lowest level since October 2013.   Overnight, Greece defaulted on its $1.8 billion …

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Financial Review

A Perfect Gift

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-03-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 64 = 18,076 SPX + 4 = 2114 NAS + 22 = 5099 10 YR YLD + .10 = 2.37% OIL – 1.68 = 59.58 GOLD – 7.70 = 1186.00 SILV – .27 = 16.58   The U.S. trade deficit narrowed in April on a drop in imports. The Commerce Department said the trade gap narrowed to $40 billion from March’s revised deficit of $50 billion. The 26 percent drop in the April trade deficit was the largest decrease since early 2009 and reflects a surge in imports in March following the end of a West Coast ports labor dispute.   Service industries expanded in May at the slowest pace in 13 months. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing index, which includes an array of industries from real estate to dining, declined to 55.7 from April’s 57.8. Readings above 50 signal expansion. Limited growth in orders reflects an American consumer who has been saving the extra cash from low gasoline prices and rising employment rather than spending it. Arts and entertainment, real-estate firms and rental companies led the list of the 15 non-manufacturing industries that reported growth in May. Mining, which includes oil extraction, contracted. An index of employment in service industries dropped to 55.3 in May from 56.7.   Payrolls processor ADP reports private employers added 201,000 jobs in May, the most since January. The ADP data …

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Financial Review

Corporate Clout

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-01-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 77 = 17,698 SPX – 8 = 2059 NAS – 20 = 4880 10 YR YLD – .06 = 1.87% OIL + 2.49 = 50.09 GOLD + 20.40 = 1204.10 SILV + .30 = 17.04   The first quarter is done; Among the winners: the S&P 500 pulled out a modest gain for the ninth consecutive winning quarter; healthcare was the best performing sector in the S&P 500, up 7.4%; utilities were the biggest decliners in the index, down 5.8%. The Nasdaq Composite posted its ninth consecutive quarterly gain (the first time ever). The Dow Industrials posted a small loss year to date. Oil dropped just over 14% for the quarter. The first quarter’s best-performing exchange-traded products include China, Japan, and solar. The first quarter’s worst-performing exchange-traded products include plays on Brazilian stocks, coffee and volatility.   In many ways, the dollar set the tone across markets in the first three months of the year. The dollar index, hit a 12-year high during the quarter. The strong dollar, or at least the pace of its rise, played havoc with earnings of large multinationals who rely heavily on foreign sales. Meanwhile, commodity markets also saw pressure from a stronger dollar.   Treasuries saw price gains in the first quarter. The yield on the 10 year note dropped from 2.17% to 1.93%. The total return in the Treasury market overall, including price …

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Financial Review

Sometimes Brazenly

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-04-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:14 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 106 = 18,096 SPX – 9 = 2098 NAS – 12 = 4967 10 YR YLD un = 2.12% OIL + 1.26 = 51.78 Private-sector employment gains continued in February but at a slower pace than in the prior month. Automatic Data Processing Inc. reported Wednesday that employers added 212,000 jobs last month. On Friday, we’ll get the non-farm payroll report for February; it is expected the economy added about 235,000 jobs last month.   The Congressional Budget Office estimates the Treasury Department will exhaust its capacity to borrow in October or November if the debt limit isn’t raised. The debt limit is suspended until March 15. After that date, so-called extraordinary measures available to the Treasury to keep borrowing include deferring new investments in federal retirement and disability funds.   The U.S. Supreme Court is considering the fate of Obamacare for the second time in three years, weighing an attack on tax credits designed to help millions of people afford insurance. The Court heard arguments today in the case of King v. Burwell, an appeal by four Virginia residents who would block the subsidies in at least 34 states. The fight centers on a four-word phrase that has become a linchpin of the law. The measure says people qualify for tax credits when they buy insurance on an online marketplace “established by the state.” The challengers …

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Financial Review

Up, Down – Take Your Pick

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-04-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS  Financial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 6 = 17,673 SPX – 8 = 2041 NAS – 11 = 4716 10 YR YLD + .02 = 1.80% OIL – 4.49 = 48.56 GOLD + 8.80 = 1269.90 SILV + .06 = 17.43   ADP reports private-sector employment gains slowed in January as employers added 213,000 jobs. ADP revised December’s gain to 253,000 from a prior estimate of 241,000. The non-farm payroll report (that’s the government’s big monthly jobs report) comes out Friday morning; it is expected the economy added about 245,000 jobs in January, down from 252,000 in December.   The Institute for Supply Management said its nonmanufacturing index edged up to 56.7% in January from 56.5% in December. Readings over 50% signal that more businesses are expanding instead of contracting. The good news is that new orders remained very healthy. The index measuring fresh demand rose a few ticks to 59.5% and remained close to a post-recession high. On the downside, the employment gauge fell 4.1 points to 51.6%, marking the lowest level in 11 months. It was also the second worst reading in 20 months. So, on the jobs front, we should still see gains, just not as strong as the past few months.   Gallup’s Job Creation Index came in at plus 28 for the month of January. This is nearly identical to the plus 27 found in December, and just below …

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