Financial Review

Black Thursday

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-08-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…. Another crash, Dow down 1,032. This is turning into a real problem. Markets are panicky. Fear over inflation and higher rates, and maybe a currency war with China. Also, waiting on a budget deal. Meanwhile, we found a few (long) winners. … Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 02-08-2018

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Financial Review

Record Setting

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-15-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSDow, S&P and Nas all hit record highs. Big whoop. Russia and Saudis jawbone oil higher. M&A galore: JDA-Honeywell, MidAmerica-Post, Xylem-Sensus, KKR-eOne, AIG-Arch Capital. Fed Pres J. Williams says central bankers need specific fiscal policy measures. Google high speed encounters an actual ditch. VW might have a fix. Nissan has an even better fix. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-15-2016

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Financial Review

Laissez les Bons Temps Rouler

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-26-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 01-26-2016 DOW + 282 = 16,167 SPX + 26 = 1903 NAS + 49 = 4567 10 Y – .03 = 1.99% OIL + .11 = 30.45 GOLD + 11.80 = 1120.70   The Federal Reserve had always planned to pause after raising interest rates in December, but the question now is how long that break will last. Initial expectations were that the FOMC would raise rates again this March, but a downturn in the equity markets, a stronger dollar and weak inflation have led some to predict that another move may be months away. Investors may get some more insight as Fed officials gather today for a two-day session, their first policy-making meeting of 2016. For now, the Fed can simply say that they are data dependent and the 25 basis point increase in December has not had an effect on the economy. They might say that everything is basically good in the economy and the markets, if they get any mention at all, are just not looking at the right data.   In a recent speech, Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley summed up the situation: “In terms of the economic outlook, the situation does not appear to have changed much since the last [Federal Open Market Committee] meeting. Some recent activity indicators have been on the softer side, pointing to a relatively weak fourth quarter …

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Financial Review

Do Computers Dream of Algorithmic Capitulation?

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-28-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-28-2015 DOW – 11 = 16,643 SPX + 1 = 1988 NAS + 15 = 4828 10 YR YLD + .02 = 2.19% OIL + 2.71 = 45.27 GOLD + 8.30 = 1134.80 SILV + .08 = 14.70   The week roared in like a lion and left like a lamb. For the week, the Dow gained 1.1 percent, the S&P rose 0.9 percent and the Nasdaq added 2.6 percent. Go figure. Panicked selling on Monday and Tuesday gave way to a rush to buy on Wednesday and Thursday.  And for many investors, it was just too much. Equity funds saw $29.5 billion head for the exits, the largest weekly outflow on record. On Tuesday, investors pulled out $19 billion, the biggest single day for outflows in the past 8 years.  Some traders would call that “capitulation”, a sign of a bottom in the markets.   The chaos of this week’s markets appeared to hit smaller investors especially hard, leaving yet another dent in their stock market confidence. The Monday flash crash resulted in smaller investors being locked out of their online accounts. Strange glitches appeared. Exchanges spit out the wrong prices for widely held funds. For example, the SPDR S&P Dividend ETF dropped 33% in 15 minutes, then shot right back up 30 minutes later, while the stocks tracked by the ETF never fell that far. The QQQ, …

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Financial Review

Summer Stall

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-04-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review By Sinclair Noe DOW – 47 = 17,550 SPX – 4 = 2093 NAS – 9 = 5105 10 YR YLD + .06 = 2.21% OIL + .80 = 45.97 GOLD + 1.40 = 1088.50 SILV + .08 = 14.68   Corelogic reports home prices rose 1.7% in June, and nationwide home prices including distressed sales, increased by 6.5% over the past 12 months. Fifteen states and the District of Columbia were the strongest since the series began in 1976. Only four states – Massachusetts, Connecticut, Louisiana and Mississippi – saw year-over-year declines.   Orders for goods produced in US factories rose 1.8% in June. Orders for durable goods, products meant to last at least three years, advanced 3.4% in June. Orders for nondurable goods edged up 0.4%.Factory activity has been stymied by a strong dollar and spending cuts in the energy sector after last year’s sharp plunge in crude oil prices. Tepid global demand also has weighed on manufacturing, which accounts for about 12 percent of the domestic economy.   Greece expects to wrap up its bailout deal with international creditors by Aug. 18, with the drafting of the agreement to begin Wednesday. The ongoing talks are reaching the end of the first phase, with the second phase to include the details of the final deal. The Greek stock market reopened yesterday, after being shut down for 5 weeks; yesterday the Athens Stock Exchange index …

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Financial Review

Wisdom of Solomon

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-15-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 107 = 17,791 SPX – 9 = 2084 NAS – 21 = 5029 10 YR YLD – .03 = 2.36% OIL – .44 = 59.52 GOLD + 4.90 = 1187.20 SILV + .12 = 16.17   Debt discussions between Greece and its European creditors collapsed last night; talks broke down after just 45 minutes. It is believed that Greece has until the eurogroup meeting on Thursday to agree on a deal or the risk of default grows enormously. It takes time for any deal to pass through parliaments and therefore any deal beyond 18 June meeting may delay payments being made to Greece to beyond the end of the month.   The other key event this week is the Fed FOMC meeting and while few people now anticipate a rate hike at Wednesday’s meeting, there could be hints that it will come in September which could spark further volatility in the markets. Despite a slow start to the year, the data is improving and we’re now seeing rising wages and spending which is necessary if inflation is going to reach the Fed’s target within the forecasting period. This month’s decision will also be accompanied by a press conference with Chair Janet Yellen; if nothing else, that means Yellen has a good opportunity to float some trial balloons.   The reality is that growth has been tepid despite …

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Financial Review

The Lights Are On

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-03-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 85 = 18,203 SPX – 9 = 2107 NAS – 28 = 4979 10 YR YLD + .04 = 2.12% OIL + 1.00 = 50.59 GOLD – 2.40 = 1204.50 SILV – .13 = 16.33   Just a few economic reports today.   Corelogic reports home prices jumped 1.1% in January to take the year-over-year gain to 5.7%. CoreLogic said 27 states and the District of Columbia are at or within 10% of their peak.   The Thomson Reuters/PayNet Small Business Lending Index fell to 120.9 from an upwardly revised December reading of 133.5.  Small businesses cut back on borrowing. Cold weather may be part of the reason.   Car companies reported February sales figures. Ford Motor sales dropped 2%. Ford was projected to report a 5.8% increase in sales but deliveries of F-Series pickups, Escape sport-utility vehicles and Fusion family cars all declined last month. General Motors sales rose 4.2 percent but they still fell short of estimates as sales of light trucks rose and sedans fell. Toyota, Fiat Chrysler, Honda and Nissan all reported deliveries that increased less than analysts had estimated. Industry-wide, the annualized selling rate, adjusted for seasonal trends, rose to 16.2 million cars and light trucks, from a 15.4 million pace a year earlier.   Chief executives of large U.S. companies see the economy accelerating modestly in 2015. According the Business Roundtable’s first-quarter …

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Financial Review

It’s About to Get Hot

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-13-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:17 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 46 = 18,019 SPX + 8 = 2096 NAS + 36 = 4893 10 YR YLD + .04 = 2.02% OIL + 1.43 = 52.46 GOLD + 6.20 = 1228.90 SILV + .48 = 17.42 The S&P 500 Index closed at an all-time high, taking out the previous record close from December 29. Whenever the S&P 500 hits a record high, we acknowledge it, but for some reason we don’t have a big celebration. When the Dow Industrials hit records we have the orchestra, the parade, milk and cookies; it’s a big ridiculous mess, but S&P 500 record high close; well done, attaboy, next.   Next would be the Russell 2000 index of small and mid-cap stocks hitting a record high close. Well done, next.   The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished above 18,000 for the first time this year. The Nasdaq Composite ended at its highest level since March 2000. For the week, the S&P 500 gained 2%. The Dow Industrial Average was up 1.1% on the week. For the second day, American Express led declines for the Dow, following news Costco was ending its exclusive business arrangement with AmEx. The Nasdaq Composite gained 3% over the past week, and is now within a few percentage points of record highs. The Russell 2000 gained 1.5% on the week.   In economic news, consumer sentiment slipped in …

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Financial Review

Thanks Hank

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-07-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW – 272 = 16,719 SPX – 29 = 1935 NAS – 69 = 4385 10 YR YLD – .07 = 2.35% OIL – 1.91 = 88.43 GOLD + 1.50 = 1209.30 SILV – .16 = 17.29 The S&P 500 dropped below its 50-day moving average last week and has yet to move back above that level. Coincidentally, the S&P 500 has been sliding for a few weeks, going back to September 19, which was the day of the Alibaba IPO, just coincidentally. The Dow is also trading below its 50 day moving average. Welcome to the start of earnings season. In the past 3 months the US dollar has jumped by 8% against the euro. That makes American goods more expensive relative to European goods. And it wasn’t just the dollar against the Euro, but against a basket of foreign currencies. It is estimated that a 5% rise in the dollar versus the euro results in a drop of about $1 for full-year Standard & Poor’s 500 Index per-share earnings; current estimates for the S&P are running around $118. Partly because of the dollar and the related decline in oil prices, earnings estimates have seen one of the largest downward revisions over the last few years aside from the weather-beaten first quarter of this year. Earnings-per-share are projected to have grown 4.9% in the third quarter, that’s down from 7.8% earnings …

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Financial Review

Paulson, Bernanke, and Geithner Walk Into a Courtroom

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-06-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW – 17 = 16991 SPX – 3 = 1964 NAS – 20 = 4454 10 YR YLD – .02 = 2.42% OIL + .05 = 90.39 GOLD + 16.10 = 1207.80 SILV + .49 = 17.45 Stocks erased early gains. The Russell 2000 Index of small cap stocks took a hit of nearly 1%. Earnings season is right around the corner. Alcoa kicks off the unofficial start of earning season on Wednesday, and we’ll get 8 companies from the S&P500 reporting this week. The average estimate for the S&P500 calls for right at 5% earnings growth; however there are concerns about the impact of a strong dollar on overseas revenue. Not much in the way of economic data today. The economy added at least 200,000 new jobs in seven of the past eight months and all signs point to similarly strong hiring through the end of the year. The latest evidence? A ninth straight increase in the employment trends index produced by the Conference Board, a nonprofit economic-research firm. The index is now 6.1% higher than a year ago. Slightly less optimistic is the new, broader, all-purpose employment index from the Federal Reserve, it’s called labor market conditions index; it was up 2.5 points last month after an increase of 2.0 in August. This is a new index the Fed has built that draws on 19 separate jobs-related measures to give …

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