Financial Review

Welcome to Earnings Reporting Season

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-11-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Alcoa kicks off earnings reports – batten down the hatches. Hard Brexit will be expensive. Rosneft chief says nyet to oil production cap. Galaxy Note 7 is finished. GE looks for renewables. Bids for Twitter? Bueller? Bueller? FCA has a deal with union. Chicago schools have a deal with union. Theranos sued. Phoenix real estate – good sales, more inventory, fewer foreclosures, fewer cash investors. The downward spiral of the American shopping mall. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-11-2016

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Financial Review

Earnings Reporting Season

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-11-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSS&P 500 hits a record high as earnings season kicks off. AA example. Good luck, you’ll need it. Oil hits 2 month low. Prime Minister May in UK. Turnbull down under. Abenomics revisited. UFC sold peacefully. Thomson Reuters IP & Science sold smartly. Prime Day cometh. Celebrate with a Slurpee or chicken (your call). Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 07-11-2016

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Financial Review

A Dodgy Day

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-11-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSEarnings season starts with diminished expectations. UK PM David Cameron tries to justify dodgy deals. Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo just pay more fines. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 04-11-2016

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Financial Review

By Land and Sea

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-11-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS  Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 01-11-2016 DOW + 52 = 16,398 SPX + 1 = 1923 NAS – 5 = 4637 10 Y + .03 = 2.16% OIL – 2.04 = 31.12 GOLD – 10.40 = 1095.20     Chinese stocks saw another big drop. China’s Shanghai Composite tumbled 5.3% on Monday, bringing its 2016 loss to 14.8%. The sell-off did not trigger circuit breakers because the Chinese exchanges gave up on that idea after last week’s big declines. The decline came even after the yuan gained following a second intervention from the central bank.   Oil prices are sharply lower to start off the week as concerns over demand from China impact trading again, along with some fresh worries. Morgan Stanley is the latest major investment firm to forecast oil prices could fall into the $20s with the U.S. dollar continuing to strengthen against major currencies. WTI crude futures dropped under $32 a barrel; that is a 12 year low. And remember this is at a time of increased tension in the Middle East; forget the fear premium, at least unless shipments are actually disrupted. Meanwhile, oil is being pumped out of the ground as if price doesn’t matter. Maybe we need to re-think the idea that oil-dependent economies like Saudi Arabia aren’t so much pumping oil now to defend market share but to get oil out of the ground while it has any value at …

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Financial Review

Anticipation of Consequences

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-08-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-08-2015 DOW + 138 = 17,050 SPX + 17 = 2013 NAS + 19 = 4810 10 YR YLD + .05 = 2.11% OIL + 1.86 = 49.67 GOLD – 6.80 – 1140.00 SILV – .39 = 15.77   This morning was full of anticipation: earnings season scheduled to kick off after the closing bell, the FOMC scheduled to release minutes from their September policy meeting, the House of Representatives scheduled to select a new Speaker of the House. Wisdom consists of the anticipation of consequences.   Earnings season is underway; the unofficial start is when Alcoa reports; ticker symbol AA, they lead the pack alphabetically, and then it just became tradition. The company reported adjusted third-quarter earnings of 7 cents a share on revenue of $5.57 billion. Analysts surveyed by FactSet had estimated earnings of 13 cents a share on revenue of $5.66 billion. Alcoa indicated that China’s industrial economy is slowing more rapidly than expected, as the aluminum producer slashed its production outlook for the country for cars, trucks and construction. And just like that, we have a trend.   Short interest has hit a peak. Short interest on companies listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) just hit a seven-year high, going back to the 2008 financial crisis. Short interest, or a bet that prices will drop, tends to increase as stocks are falling, and …

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Financial Review

Canoe Trips on Mars

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-28-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-28-2015   DOW – 312 = 16,001 SPX – 49 = 1881 NAS – 142 = 4543 10 YR YLD – .07 = 2.09% OIL – .03 = 44.40 GOLD – 14.20 = 1133.10 SILV – .53 = 14.70   Well, this was just ugly. All three major indices traded in correction territory today or more than 10 percent below their 52-week highs. For the Nasdaq Composite, the 50 day moving average crossed the 200 day moving average, forming a pattern that goes by the catchy name “death cross”. The Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF closed down 6.3%, following a 5% drop on Friday.   Shares in mining and trading company Glencore fell almost 30 percent and closed at a record low, wiping out more than $5 billion in market valuation. The fall followed publication of a note by analysts at investment bank Investec which raised doubts about Glencore’s valuation if spot metal prices do not improve. The note pointed to high debt levels and a need for deeper restructuring. The analysts wrote: “If major commodity prices remain at current levels, our analysis implies that, in the absence of substantial restructuring, nearly all the equity value of both Glencore and Anglo American could evaporate.” Glencore, a Swiss based company, has said it will suspend dividends, sell assets and raise cash with a $2.5 billion share placement, among other measures, to cut its …

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Financial Review

Crash

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-08-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 261 = 17,515 SPX – 34 = 2046 NAS – 87 = 4909 10 YR YLD – .02 = 2.20% OIL – .68 = 51.65 GOLD + 3.00 = 1159.00 SILV + .08 = 15.22   The stock market crashed today. Before you accuse me of over exaggerating, I do not consider a 261 point drop on the Dow to be a crash; that’s just a down day, with a dollop of ugly. No, I mean the actual New York Stock Exchange crashed. The computers malfunctioned. Trading stopped for 3.5 hours. Open orders were cancelled. Other orders were re-routed. This was an actual technical crash. It started with a few squirrelly trades in the morning, and at 11:32 AM, the New York Stock Exchange surrendered, halted trading, and tried to reboot the computers.   And for the most part, it did not stop trading in NYSE listed stocks. The other exchanges picked up the trades. First, the Nasdaq did not crash; next the BATS system just re-routed trades, ARCA picked up more trades, and the Philly exchange handled some trades as well. So, in many ways, it was a typical trading day. The New York Stock Exchange is really more of a TV studio these days than a central force behind buy and sell orders. CNBC broadcasts there; tourists gawk; all the trades are electronic, in a …

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Financial Review

Unsustainable

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-07-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 93 = 17,776 SPX + 12 = 2081 NAS + 5 = 4997 10 YR YLD – .05 = 2.23% OIL + .14 = 52.67 GOLD – 15.50 = 1155.30 SILV – .70 = 15.15   These are interesting times. There is the situation in Greece; the Chinese equity markets are suffering a bit of a meltdown; Puerto Rico has fallen into a black hole of debt; negotiations are underway with Iran; and the cherry on top – earnings season starts tomorrow. Traders might be forgiven if they were a feeling a little jittery. This morning the stock market headed into triple digit negative territory, (the Dow was down 200 points earlier) only to get an afternoon jolt of good news; namely, there may be a deal to be had with Greece. So, let’s dig in there.   Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is in Brussels for an emergency Eurozone summit. Over the weekend, Greeks overwhelmingly voted to reject more austerity. Actually, they voted on a debt proposal that is no longer under consideration, but figuratively they voted against austerity. Greek banks remain closed and ATMs are reportedly running out of cash. The European Central Bank has maintained its emergency loan cap for Greek banks. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said there was no basis for reopening negotiations with Athens. European leaders have all made clear the onus …

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Financial Review

Goodbye Patience

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-08-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 27 = 17,902 SPX + 5 = 2081 NAS + 40 = 4950 10 YR YLD un = 1.89% OIL – 3.05 = 50.93 GOLD – 5.50 = 1203.20 SILV – .32 = 16.61   We start today with a big acquisition in the oil industry. Royal Dutch Shell agreed to buy BG Group for about $70 billion in cash and shares, the oil and gas industry’s biggest deal in at least a decade; since 2004 when Royal Dutch Shell was created. This is the biggest acquisition this year and the 10th biggest M&A deal overall, and the fourth biggest deal overall in the oil industry. The merged company will boast a market value twice the size of BP, and even larger than Chevron. ExxonMobil is still the 800 pound gorilla with market cap north of $350 billion.   To win over shareholders, Shell pledged cost savings of $2.5 billion, asset disposals of at least $30 billion within four years and a giant buyback of $25 billion from 2017 to 2020. Shell investors reacted coolly to the deal. Shell’s B shares, the class of stock being used to finance the deal, fell about 7% percent in London. For BG it represents a 50% premium.   BG Group is the exploration part of the former state owned British Gas that was privatized by Margaret Thatcher in the 1980s. …

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Financial Review

Just Around the Corner

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-06-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe   DOW + 117 = 17,880 SPX + 13 = 2080 NAS + 30 = 4917 10 YR YLD un = 1.90% OIL + 2.84 = 51.98 GOLD + 12.00 = 1215.00 SILV + .20 = 17.07   The jobs report on Friday showed the economy added 126,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in March, the slowest monthly increase since December 2013, and the unemployment rate held at 5.5%. It was a bad jobs report; it raises concerns about a spring revival in the economy and should give the Fed cause to be more patient in initiating rate hikes.   New York Fed President William Dudley said the timing of interest rate hikes are uncertain and the Federal Reserve must watch that the surprising recent weakness in the economy does not foreshadow a more substantial slowdown, especially in the labor market. Dudley said: “It will be important to monitor developments to determine whether the softness in the March labor market report evident on Friday foreshadows a more substantial slowing in the labor market than I currently anticipate.” Still, Dudley said the weak economic data likely reflected “temporary factors to a significant degree.”   Maybe. There is still some question of whether the markets are pricing in higher rates. You can understand why markets might be slow to accept higher rates, like the kids in the back of the station wagon asking “are …

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Financial Review

Earnings Season Kickoff

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-12-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 96 = 17,640 SPX – 16 = 2028 NAS – 39 = 4664 10 YR YLD – .06 = 1.91% OIL – 2.58 = 45.78 GOLD + 10.00 = 1234.40 SILV + .09 = 16.71 The drop in the price of oil has been amazing; the daily moves are big: 3%, or 4% or more on any given day (5% today). Eventually prices will bottom out but we get no indication of where that bottom is. Today, Goldman Sachs made sharp cuts to its oil price projections. The bank’s energy analysts revised down their three-month forecast for WTI crude to $41 a barrel from a previous estimate of $70. They see WTI at $39 a barrel in six months and $65 a barrel in a year, versus previous price forecasts of $75 and $80, respectively. They see Brent at $42 in three months, $43 in six months and $70 in 12 months versus previous estimates of $80, $86 and $90, respectively. When oil is trading at $45 and falling, it really isn’t shocking to say it could drop to $41. Goldman Sachs is playing catchup, and today’s revisions clearly show that their earlier estimates were grossly inaccurate. In an interview with Maria Bartiromo of Fox Business News published in USA Today, Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Talal said: “If supply stays where it is, and demand remains weak, …

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Financial Review

Send Thank You Notes to Janet

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-08-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW + 274 = 16,994 SPX + 33 = 1968 NAS + 83 = 4468 10 YR YLD – .02 = 2.33% OIL – 1.23 = 87.62 GOLD + 13.20 = 1222.50 SILV + .19 = 17.48 Volatility has kicked into high gear. Yesterday the VIX, the Volatility Index was up 11%, and today it dropped 12%. The Dow has had moves of 200 points or more five times in the last 10 days. There have only been 10 other days this year when the index has made moves of that magnitude. Yesterday was an ugly decline and today, stocks started drifting lower, and then suddenly, dramatically, jumped higher; by the closing bell it was the best day of the year. Send your thank you notes to Janet Yellen. Pause for just a moment and think about what has been driving the markets for the past 5 years. Certainly, there are many factors but a big factor would have to be Federal Reserve monetary policy. Yesterday stocks looked like they were going to hell in a hand basket, and today the Fed’s FOMC minutes were released and the markets were revived as if they’d been given a big old hypodermic full of adrenaline straight to the heart. We all know the Fed is ending its bond buying crusade this month, and the open question has been when they will raise interest rates. …

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