Financial Review

Easy to Spot Winners

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-22-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-22-2015 DOW + 320 = 17,489 SPX + 33 = 2052 NAS + 79 = 4920 10 YR YLD un = 2.03% OIL + .18 = 45.38 GOLD – .80 = 1166.90 SILV + .16 = 15.94     European Central Bank policymakers are meeting today in Malta. ECB President Mario Draghi announced no change to interest rates or asset purchases, but he warned that emerging markets are hurting Eurozone growth prospects, and he hinted the central bank may lower the deposit rate further or expand its quantitative easing at its December meeting. Markets just love an accommodative central bank.   The European Economics Commission says “Greece has done a certain number of reforms, and we are going to give them money, €3 billion-euro in all,” and in the course of November, December, the commission will deal with the issue of the recapitalization of Greek banks and Greek debt.”     Chinese stocks recovered today as the People’s Bank of China added liquidity to the market. After the close on Wednesday, the PBOC injected $16.6 billion into 11 financial institutions via medium-term lending facilities. Meanwhile, the government’s anti-corruption campaign continues with a crackdown on golf, considered a lavish extravagance. Or in my case, cruel punishment.   New applications for U.S. unemployment benefits inched up by 3,000 to 259,000 in the week ended Oct. 17. This is the first gain after …

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Financial Review

No Rhyme nor Reason

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-08-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-08-2015   DOW + 390 = 16,492 SPX + 48 = 1969 NAS + 128 = 4811 10 YR YLD + .06 = 2.19% OIL – .11 = 45.94 GOLD – 1.40 = 1122.40 SILV + .22 = 14.90   There is no particular rhyme nor reason to explain today’s rally on Wall Street, or for that matter, last week’s declines. Last Friday’s jobs report did little to provide clarity about whether the Fed would raise rates at next week’s FOMC meeting.   The economy added 173,000 jobs in August, which was below expectations; and the unemployment rate dropped to 5.1%. Following Friday’s employment data, futures market traders predicted about a 20 percent chance a rate hike will come this month, down from around 30 percent before the jobs report. I think the Fed might act next week, just to clear the air. If you remember back to the “taper tantrum” of 2013, when the markets became jittery about the prospect of the end of Quantitative Easing, the anticipation was worse than the actual event. So, the easiest thing might just be to do it and be done.   Of course, it is easy to argue against a rate hike. The U-6 unemployment rate is still around 10.3%; some people consider this the “real” unemployment rate because it includes part-time employees seeking full-time jobs and marginally employed workers. …

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Financial Review

Rockets and Rocks

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-23-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 119 = 17,731 SPX – 12 = 2102 NAS – 25 = 5146 10 YR YLD – .05 = 2.27% OIL – .74 = 48.45 GOLD – 3.60 = 1091.40 SILV – .14 = 14.76   Greece can begin bailout talks. Greece’s parliament approved new reforms that pave the way for Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras to begin negotiating his country’s third bailout. Parliament overwhelmingly approved the measures, but roughly a quarter of Tsipras’ Syriza party voted against the reforms. Now Greece and its creditors will begin working out the details of the latest bailout package, the third for Athens in the past five years. Nearly everyone agrees that Greek debt is unsustainably high, but that’s where the agreement ends. The IMF on July 14th issued a report calling for debt relief, a 180 turn from their earlier demands of austerity. The monetary fund recommended either a “very dramatic extension” of payment deadlines by up to 30 years or “deep upfront haircuts,” banker jargon for write-offs.   Lots of headlines flew out of Asia  overnight: Japan’s exports increased the most in five months in June, fueled by strengthening overseas demand, but imports remained subdued due to the effect of lower commodity prices. South Korea’s economy logged its weakest expansion in six years in Q2, recording just 0.3% growth from the previous quarter, as the country got battered by a MERS …

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Financial Review

The Deadline Is Near

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-28-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 36 = 18,126 SPX – 2 = 2120 NAS – 8 = 5097 10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.14% OIL + .46 = 57.97 GOLD – .02 = 1188.20 SILV + .01 = 16.76   The National Association of Realtors’ index of pending home sales increased in April for the fourth consecutive month to reach the highest level in nine years, signaling that upcoming deals could pick up. The pending home sales index climbed 3.4 percent to 112.4 last month. The index now is at its highest since May 2006.

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Financial Review

A Short Week

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-26-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 190 = 18,041 SPX – 21 = 2104 NAS – 56 = 5032 10 YR YLD – .08 = 2.14% OIL – 1.37 = 58.35 GOLD – 18.10 = 1188.80 SILV – .35 = 16.82   The S&P/Case-Shiller Home price index shows prices for existing homes rose in March. Both the 10- and 20-City Composites increased significantly, reporting 0.8% and 0.9% month-over-month increases, respectively. Both the 10-City and 20-City Composites saw year-over-year increases in March. The 10-City Composite gained 4.7% year-over-year, while the 20-City Composite gained 5.0% year-over-year.  Phoenix saw prices increase 0.6% in March,

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Financial Review

Chips and Salsa Like 1999

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-24-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 21 = 18,080 SPX + 4 = 2117 NAS + 36 = 5092 10 YR YLD – .03 = 1.92% OIL – .58 = 57.16   Yesterday, the Nasdaq closed at 5,056, finally surpassing its tech-boom peak of 5,048 set in March 2000. It only took a little over 15 years to get back to those levels. Today the party continued. The S&P 500 hit a new record high close, but just barely; topping the March 2 record by a fraction. For the week, the Nasdaq surged 3.2% and the S&P 500 jumped 1.8%. The Dow added 1.4%.   WTI crude oil closed down 58 cents at $57.16 a barrel, retreating from Thursday’s 2015 high of $58.41. It rose for a sixth straight week, its longest such stretch since the first quarter of 2014. This week’s gain was 2.5 percent. After a sell-off between June and January driven by oversupply, oil prices seem to have found their footing in the last three months, gaining about 33 percent from a low in March.   In the past year, there’s been an inverse relationship between the price of crude oil and the relative performance of retail stocks. Also, most retailers aren’t hurt by a stronger dollar; rather, it helps because items imported to the US are cheaper. An almost 60 percent decline in oil between June 2014 and mid-March contributed …

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Financial Review

Good Luck With That

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-29-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:17 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 225 = 17,416 SPX + 19 = 2021 NAS + 45 = 4683 10 YR YLD + .02 = 1.75% OIL + .09 = 44.54 GOLD – 25.20 = 1259.10 SILV – 1.04 = 17.02 Yesterday, the Federal Reserve said it would remain “patient” on raising rates, but indicated it saw the U.S. economy getting stronger. The Fed also said it has seen inflation decline, and it may decline further, but that low oil prices are probably temporary. The FOMC statement said that economic activity has expanded “at a solid pace” and that labor market conditions have improved. That was certainly the case last week. The fewest Americans in almost 15 years filed applications for unemployment benefits during a holiday-shortened week that typically makes the data more volatile. Jobless claims dropped by 43,000 to 265,000 in the week ended Jan. 24, the lowest since April 2000. No state reported an increase of more than 1,000 in claims for the week ended Jan. 17. The National Association of Realtors reports its index of pending home sales fell 3.7% in December, though the year-on-year gain was 11.7%, the highest since June 2013. Pending sales measures contracts signed but not yet closed. The Census Bureau reports the number of owner-occupied households fell by 354,000 from a year earlier as the homeownership rate dropped to its lowest level since 1994. The …

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Financial Review

Divergence

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-12-09-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 51 = 17,801 SPX – 0.49 = 2059 NAS + 25 = 4766 10 YR YLD – .04 = 2.22% OIL + .80 = 63.85 GOLD + 27.80 = 1233.00 SILV + .73 = 17.21 We’ll start with economic news. The Labor Department reports there were 4.83 million job openings in October, up from 4.69 million job openings in September. The number of available jobs means workers are more likely to leave their current jobs in search of a better deal. The quit rate, the share of total employees opting to quit their jobs was 1.9% in October, roughly the same level it was just before 2007. With 9 million unemployed people in October, there were about 1.9 potential job seekers per opening. In October 2013, there were 11.14 million unemployed people or about 2.8 potential seekers per opening. The Commerce Department reports wholesale inventories increased 0.4%, despite an energy price-related decline in the value of petroleum stocks. September’s wholesale stocks were revised up to show a 0.4% gain. This might indicate that third quarter GDP could be revised slightly higher. The National Federation of Independent Business says small-business sentiment reached a seven-year high in November. The index rose 2 points to 98.1, the highest level since Feb. 2007, as expectations for business conditions in six months surged and expectations for real sales volumes also gained. While …

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Financial Review

A Boatload of Economic News and Earnings Reports

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-23-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW + 216 = 16,677 SPX + 23 = 1950 NAS + 69 = 4452 10 YR YLD + .05 = 2.28% OIL + 1.33 = 81.85 GOLD – 9.10 = 1232.90 SILV + .02 = 17.30 The S&P 500 has risen five times in the past six days, pushing the gauge up 4.9 percent since Oct. 15 and recouping about half the losses from a selloff that began in mid-September; the S&P is still down about 3 percent from a record. The Federal Housing Finance Agency, which tracks deals involving mortgages backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, said home prices in August were up 4.8% from the year-earlier period; and up a seasonally adjusted 0.5% in August from July. The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage was 3.92 percent, down from 3.97 percent last week. The average 15-year rate dropped to 3.08 percent from 3.18 percent. Mortgage rates are now at the lowest levels since the summer of 2013. Refinancing applications jumped 23 percent in the week ended Oct. 17 to an 11-month high. The number of people who applied for US unemployment benefits rose by 17,000 last week to 283,000, but initial claims remained below the key 300,000 level for the sixth straight week. The Conference Board’s leading economic index rose 0.8% in September, after no change in August. The index points toward improving employment and income growth …

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