Financial Review

Inside Bank Earnings

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-19-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSS…..Energy prices slip. Stocks weak. Beige Book sees problems with tight labor. Fed policymakers on gradual path to raise rates and trim balance sheet. Earnings season. Morgan Stanley beats Goldman. eBay can’t beat Amazon. Qualcomm bogged down by litigation. AmEx after Costco. Blackrock rules ETFs. Understanding bank earnings. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 04-19-2017

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Financial Review

And Pause

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-02-2017_1_.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSS…..Not a new record. Fed preps for hike. Bond market rattled. Snap snaps on IPO. Yahoo is just sad. Banks fined $321 billion (it’s hard to believe Clinton lost the election after Obama threw all those banksters in jail..oh, wait). DoL hits pause on advisers acting in clients’ best interests. Caterpillar raid. Earnings news. Creepy teddy bears. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 03-02-2017

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Financial Review

From Beige to Blue

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-19-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSS…..Beige Book moderately optimistic, except Houston. Building starts down, mainly apartments. Saudi Arabia issues debt. China’s 3Q GDP 6.7%, again. Earnings: Intel beats but forecast misses, Morgan Stanley beats, Yahoo beats, Halliburton posts a penny, Amex misses Costco. Google all-time high. New Macs? Don’t pay for delayed luggage. Americans work more. Arizona turning blue. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-19-2016

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Financial Review

Mars Looks Pretty Good

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-27-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSS……The Ubiquitous debate. Register to vote before the government shuts down. Iran won’t freeze. WTO slashes global growth forecast. Growth cools for existing home sales. Consumer confidence is high (taken before the debate). Amex forbids merchants to recommend lower price alternatives. Clean Power Plan goes to court. Elon Musk is my favorite Martian. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-27-2016

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Financial Review

Easy to Spot Winners

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-22-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-22-2015 DOW + 320 = 17,489 SPX + 33 = 2052 NAS + 79 = 4920 10 YR YLD un = 2.03% OIL + .18 = 45.38 GOLD – .80 = 1166.90 SILV + .16 = 15.94     European Central Bank policymakers are meeting today in Malta. ECB President Mario Draghi announced no change to interest rates or asset purchases, but he warned that emerging markets are hurting Eurozone growth prospects, and he hinted the central bank may lower the deposit rate further or expand its quantitative easing at its December meeting. Markets just love an accommodative central bank.   The European Economics Commission says “Greece has done a certain number of reforms, and we are going to give them money, €3 billion-euro in all,” and in the course of November, December, the commission will deal with the issue of the recapitalization of Greek banks and Greek debt.”     Chinese stocks recovered today as the People’s Bank of China added liquidity to the market. After the close on Wednesday, the PBOC injected $16.6 billion into 11 financial institutions via medium-term lending facilities. Meanwhile, the government’s anti-corruption campaign continues with a crackdown on golf, considered a lavish extravagance. Or in my case, cruel punishment.   New applications for U.S. unemployment benefits inched up by 3,000 to 259,000 in the week ended Oct. 17. This is the first gain after two …

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Financial Review

May Day

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-01-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 183 = 18,024 SPX + 22 = 2108 NAS + 63 = 5005 10 YR YLD + .07 = 2.11% OIL – .29 = 59.34   For the week, the Dow dropped 0.3%, the S&P 500 fell 0.4% and the Nasdaq was down 1.7%. May kicks off what has been the worst six months for stocks historically which has brought rise to the old saying “sell in May and go away.” Sometimes it works but no guarantees.   The Detroit 3 automakers reported solid April sales as new models and cheap loans lured even more buyers into what’s already a brisk-moving new-vehicle market. Fiat Chrysler reported sales jumped 6% in April, GM gained 5.9% and Ford rose 5%. Still, their stocks were mixed. Ford and GM were higher, Fiat Chrysler was down.   Merchants displeased with the high fees American Express charges them are permitted to steer customers toward less expensive cards without fearing retaliation from the credit card company. A Judge in Brooklyn federal court has ruled that American Express is not allowed to stop stores from offering discounts, rebates or other incentives for using lower-fee cards – an activity known as steering.    Construction spending fell in March to a six-month low as outlays on private residential construction spending declined sharply. Construction spending slipped 0.6 percent to an annual rate of $966 billion, the lowest level since …

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Financial Review

Just Around the Corner

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-17-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 279 = 17,826 SPX – 23 = 2081 NAS – 75 = 4931 10 YR YLD – .03 = 1.85% OIL – .52 = 56.19 Even though oil prices were down slightly today, oil posted a 12% gain for the past week.   The economy continues to expand and consumers are feeling better. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 95.9 in April, up from 93 in March. Separately, The Conference Board said leading indicators rose 0.2% in March; the leading economic index has been slowing over recent months but it still points to moderate expansion in economic activity.   Consumer prices rose 0.2% in March. Gasoline prices rose 3.9%, which was the biggest jump since February 2013; still, gas prices are about 33% below year-ago levels.  The core-CPI, which excludes energy and food prices, also rose 0.2% due to higher cost of housing and used cars. The cost of clothes, housing, cars, and medical care increased, while food and airfare decreased. Core prices have risen 1.8% in the past year. While the “all-items index” (which includes things like food and energy) declined 0.1% over the last 12 months. Higher inflation would indicate a stronger dollar because it could reinforce the view that the Fed might hike interest rates sooner rather than later.   The Labor Department reports real average hourly earnings for all employees increased …

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Financial Review

Holy Grail

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-02-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 155 = 18,288 SPX + 12 = 2117 NAS + 44 = 5008 10 YR YLD + .08 = 2.08% OIL + .06 = 49.82 GOLD – 7.80 = 1206.90 SILV – .22 = 16.46   February was the best month for stocks since October 2011. The S&P 500 gained 5.5% in February. March is off to a fine start. The Dow Industrial Average closed at a record high. The S&P 500 closed at a record. The Nasdaq Composite hit 5000 for the first time in 15 years. And if you wonder why we celebrate when the indices hit records, it is because 15 years ago we didn’t know it would take 15 years to get back to these levels.   Earnings season is pretty much over and it wasn’t all that pretty. With 485 of 500 S&P 500 companies reporting, FactSet says the blended growth rate is only 3.7%. Without Apple that number shrinks to only 2% but then again if you take out energy, it balloons to nearly 7%. Estimates have been revised lower, which is typical; companies try to ratchet down expectations, but this is different. All sectors are showing expectation deterioration, not just energy.   Earnings growth has slowed, and valuations are a little on the pricey side, and expectations are down. So, why are stocks at record highs? Well, start with the idea that the …

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Financial Review

Milk and Cookies. Enjoy While You Can.

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-25-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 15 = 18,224 SPX – 1 = 2113 NAS – 0.98 = 4967 10 YR YLD – .02 = 1.97% OIL + 1.75 = 51.03 GOLD + 2.90 = 1205.20 SILV + .22 = 16.64   Another record high for the Dow Industrial Average. These are the days of milk and cookies.   Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen continued her semi-annual Humphrey-Hawkins testimony today in front of the House Financial Services Committee. The prepared opening remarks were identical to the testimony yesterday in the Senate. The Q&A session became a bit testy today as Yellen was accused of political bias. Republicans questioned Yellen about an October speech on inequality, just before the midterm elections, as evidence she was leaning toward the Obama administration and Democrats. Methinks they doth protest too much. There were also calls for an audit of the Fed, historically a nonstarter with Federal Reserve Chairs. It made for generally poor political theater.   The important part of the testimony was fairly easy to find. Keep in mind the Fed has a dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability. So the key statement from Yellen was when she said: “Provided that labor market conditions continue to improve and further improvement is expected, the Committee anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate when, on the basis of incoming …

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Financial Review

Risk On

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-20-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 154 = 18,140 SPX + 12 = 2110 NAS + 31 = 4955 10 YR YLD + .02 = 2.13% OIL – .82 = 50.34   Eurozone finance ministers are meeting in Brussels today for the latest round of emergency talks aimed at breaking the deadlock with Greece. Yesterday, Germany rejected a request by Athens to extend a loan program, calling the Greek proposal a Trojan horse. Now it looks like there will be an extension of the bailout loan agreement, probably for four months; the current deal was scheduled to expire on February 28th.   Euro zone officials said the accord required Greece to submit by Monday a letter to the Eurogroup listing all the policy measures it planned to take during the remainder of the bailout period, to ensure they complied with conditions. So, they haven’t worked out all the details or even come close to resolving the problems; they didn’t have to; they just needed to avoid making a big, irreversible mess of everything. So, they have hit the pause button. It might be the smartest thing they could have done.   Greece has a new government, barely one month on the job. It is not reasonable to expect the new government to have fully formulated all the details of a bailout and recovery plan. They might not come up with a decent plan after 3 or 6 …

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