Financial Review

May Maybe

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-29-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSEnd of week, end of month,  no inflation, dollar soft, Exxon and Chevron get ugly, Woodstock for Capitalists and a dying breed. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 04-29-2016

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Honey for Bears

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-08-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 02-08-2016 DOW – 177 = 16,027 SPX – 26 = 1853 NAS – 79 = 4283 10 Y – .11 = 1.74% OIL – .80 = 30.09 GOLD + 15.50 = 1190.00   This was just an ugly session from the start. The Dow opened about 200 points down and then trickled lower; at one point down more than 300 points. The S&P 500 index broke down through the key level of support at 1860 that I warned you about in January and again last week, taking out the August 2015 lows and the October 2014 lows. The S&P 500 not only took out support from January, but now we look to minor support at 1815, and then, well there isn’t really any support. In other words, the charts look very dangerous here.   And if you prefer fundamentals over technicals; this is what FactSet had to say in its recent report: “For Q4 2015, the blended earnings decline is -3.8%. If the index reports a decline in earnings for Q4, it will mark the first time the index has seen three consecutive quarters of year-over-year declines in earnings since Q1 2009 through Q3 2009.” The difference this time versus 2009 is that valuations are much higher. FactSet data show expectations for first-quarter per-share earnings have collapsed to a decline of 5.5% as of today. Back in September, that forecast …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Dark Clouds

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-12-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 01-12-2016   DOW + 117 = 16,516 SPX + 15 = 4658 NAS + 47 = 4685 10 Y – .06 = 2.10% OIL – .67 = 30.74 GOLD – 7.70  = 1087.50 The recent sell-off on Wall Street has some of the investment banks worried. For the past 7 years, JPMorgan Chase has seen every dip in the market as a buying opportunity. Now they are changing their tune and advising clients to sell any rally. A report from JPMorgan’s chief equity strategist cites several areas that are raising red flags, including: deteriorating technical indicators, expectations of anemic corporate earnings combined with the downward trajectory in U.S. manufacturing activity and a continued weakness in commodities, with oil dropping under $20 a barrel.   RBS, the Royal Bank of Scotland, says investors face a “cataclysmic year” where stock markets could fall by up to 20% and oil could slip as low as $10 a barrel. In a note to its clients the bank said: “Sell everything except high quality bonds. This is about return of capital, not return on capital. In a crowded hall, exit doors are small.” It said the current situation was reminiscent of 2008, when the collapse of the Lehman Brothers investment bank led to the global financial crisis. This time China could be the crisis point.   Goldman Sachs is warning that global stock markets may get …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

By Land and Sea

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-11-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS  Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 01-11-2016 DOW + 52 = 16,398 SPX + 1 = 1923 NAS – 5 = 4637 10 Y + .03 = 2.16% OIL – 2.04 = 31.12 GOLD – 10.40 = 1095.20     Chinese stocks saw another big drop. China’s Shanghai Composite tumbled 5.3% on Monday, bringing its 2016 loss to 14.8%. The sell-off did not trigger circuit breakers because the Chinese exchanges gave up on that idea after last week’s big declines. The decline came even after the yuan gained following a second intervention from the central bank.   Oil prices are sharply lower to start off the week as concerns over demand from China impact trading again, along with some fresh worries. Morgan Stanley is the latest major investment firm to forecast oil prices could fall into the $20s with the U.S. dollar continuing to strengthen against major currencies. WTI crude futures dropped under $32 a barrel; that is a 12 year low. And remember this is at a time of increased tension in the Middle East; forget the fear premium, at least unless shipments are actually disrupted. Meanwhile, oil is being pumped out of the ground as if price doesn’t matter. Maybe we need to re-think the idea that oil-dependent economies like Saudi Arabia aren’t so much pumping oil now to defend market share but to get oil out of the ground while it has any value at …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Bueller? Bueller?

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-09-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-09-2015 DOW + 33 = 17,084 SPX + 1 = 2014 NAS + 19 = 4830 10 YR YLD – .01 = 2.10 OIL + .14 = 49.57 GOLD + 17.40 = 1157.40 SILV + .16 = 15.93   World shares were green across the board after details from the Fed’s minutes cast further doubt on the prospect of a rate rise this year. European stocks broke a one-month high for their best weekly gain since late January on renewed hopes central banks will keep monetary policy loose for longer. Overnight, Asian equities and currencies also moved higher following yesterday’s gains on Wall Street (the Dow ended above 17,000 for the first time since August, while the S&P 500 closed well past its 50-day MA of 1,995).   Oil prices traded above $50 a barrel this morning, with a gain of nearly 9% this week; for the biggest weekly gain in 6 years.   Investors are now positioning themselves for corporate earnings season, which picks up steam next week with most of the nation’s largest banks reporting their results, as well as big companies including; Intel, Netflix, UnitedHealth and GE. Earnings are expected to be down roughly 5.5 percent from a year ago, according to FactSet, mostly because of the drop in commodity prices. Now there is a game on Wall Street where analysts set the bar very low …

READ MORE →