Financial Review

Timing is………..Everything

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-10-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW + 54 = 17, 068 SPX + 7 = 1995 NAS + 34 = 4586 10 YR YLD + .03 = 2.53% OIL – 1.13 = 91.67 GOLD – 6.80 = 1250.00 SILV – .12 = 19.04 Later today, at 6PM local time or 9PM eastern, President Obama will address the nation and lay out his strategy to degrade and destroy the Islamic State insurgency operating in Iraq and Syria. This will likely involve significant escalation of the US military role in the area, but we aren’t sure about the intervention in Syria; probably a combination of airstrikes, and support for more moderate Syrian forces willing to carry out attacks on both ISIS and Assad; along with regional allies providing on the ground support. The president has pledged there will not be boots on the ground. He said: “This is not the equivalent of the Iraq war. What this is similar to is the kinds of counter-terrorism campaigns that we’ve been engaging in consistently over the last five, six, seven years.” Which sounds like a distinction without a difference. Earlier today an administration spokesman said: “The president will discuss how we are building a coalition of allies and partners in the region and in the broader international community to support our efforts, and will talk about how we work with the Congress as a partner in these efforts.” That doesn’t mean …

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Financial Review

Apple Bites

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-09-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW – 97 = 17,013 SPX – 13 = 1988 NAS – 40 = 4552 10 YR YLD + .03 = 2.50% OIL + .05 = 92.80 GOLD + .30 = 1256.80 SILV + .04 = 19.16 Today’s epiphany is courtesy of Apple; they unveiled not one but three new things. Let’s examine. The iPhone 6 is the new phone, and it is a little bit bigger than the old phone. And they even have an iPhone 6 plus, which is a little bit bigger. So, the new phones won’t fit in your pocket anymore. I know, it’s like the most totally incredible thing ever. The Apple Watch is smaller than the old phone; so small it can be strapped on your wrist. It even has a dial so older people will realize it is supposed to be a watch and not just a little phone strapped to your wrist. It is called the Apple Watch because iWatch was just a little too creepy. The third thing is Apple Pay, which is a payment processing service that has Apple partnering with American Express, MasterCard, and Visa so you can pay for purchases with a big iPhone 6 or an Apple Watch, just like you can pay for things with an American Express, MasterCard, or Visa credit card. The big difference is this is new technology, whereas the credit card is like 50 …

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Financial Review

A Messy Business

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCALIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-04-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review 09-04-2014 DOW – 8 = 17,069 SPX – 3 = 1997 NAS – 10 = 4562 10 YR YLD + .02 = 2.45% OIL – .98 = 94.56 GOLD – 8.40 = 1261.90 SILV – .11 = 19.16 Wall Street tried to rally but fizzled instead. The Dow and the S&P 500 hit new intraday records, only to close down on the day. The S&P energy index ended down 1.3% as the day’s worst performing sector in the S&P. Crude oil futures lost 1.1% to $94.56 as the dollar strengthened and weighed on commodities. Tomorrow brings the monthly jobs report. Payrolls processing firm ADP said private-sector payrolls increased by 204,000 last month after rising by 212,000 in July, with gains spread across a range of industries. While the report was a bit softer than expected, it marked the fifth straight month of gains above 200,000. The ADP report does not always predict the government jobs report but it is a general indicator of the report. The Institute for Supply Management said its services index rose from 58.7 in July to 59.6 last month, the highest reading since its inception in January 2008. The Commerce Department said the US trade deficit fell 0.6% to $40.5 billion in July, its smallest size since January. When adjusted for inflation, it reached its narrowest point since December 2013. A new survey from the Federal Reserve shows …

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Financial Review

Wednesday, April 23, 2014 – A Brilliant Future From Cool Ideas

A Brilliant Future From Cool Ideas by Sinclair Noe DOW – 12 = 16,501SPX – 4 = 1875NAS – 34 = 412610 YR YLD – .05 = 2.68%OIL – .2- = 101.55GOLD un 1284.70SILV + .06 = 19.55 It’s earnings season, and this is a chance to compare and contrast. This morning, Facebook posted earnings of $642 million in net income, or 25 cents a share, in the first quarter, versus $219 million, or 9 cents a share in the year ago period. Overall revenue grew 72% year-on-year to $2.5 billion in the first quarter, topping estimates. Facebook now has 1.28 billion active users, and more than 1 billion do their Facebook stuff on a mobile device. Then Facebook announced their Financial Director was resigning. Shares were up about 3%. Nobody puts on a better presentation than Apple, that’s how they grew to be the most valuable company in the world. Steve Jobs would walk out and announce Apple had created a new mp3 player, and also a new way to connect to the internet, and also a new camera. Wow, three new products, nope…, he would hold up the iPhone – just one very cool thing from Apple; tech geeks heads would explode. Today, Apple posted earnings of $10.2 billion or $11.62 a share, on revenue of $45.6 billion. Analysts expected the company to report earnings excluding items of $10.18 a share; Apple reported a 4.6% rise in March-quarter revenue to $45.6 billion; Apple sold 43.7 million iPhones in …

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Tuesday, April 01, 2014 – Murderers and Cheats

Murderers and Cheatsby Sinclair Noe DOW + 74 = 16,532SPX + 13 = 1885NAS + 69 = 426810 YR YLD + .04 = 2.76%OIL – 1.99 = 99.59GOLD – 5. 00 = 1280.80SILV un = 19,86 Congratulations Mary Barra, you’ve been named CEO of General Motors, one of the biggest companies in America; now head on over to Capitol Hill to take the blame for the people who used to run the company. Barra’s appearance before a subcommittee of the House Energy and Commerce Committee represented a significant new phase in the company’s crisis since it issued recalls that began in February for 2.6 million Cobalts and other vehicles. The problems with the cars involve faulty ignition switches; GM repeatedly failed to fix faulty ignition switches, despite conducting multiple internal studies of the problem since 2001, and 13 people died in the defective vehicles. Members of Congress and the families of people killed in GM cars are urging Barra to declare the cars unsafe to drive until new ignition switches are installed. So far, GM has said the vehicles are safe to operate as long as there are no objects attached to the ignition key.  GM conducted several internal investigations of the switch problems, dating back as far as 2001. Company engineers learned that the key in the ignition could be inadvertently bumped into the off or accessory position, causing the engine to lose power and disabling air bags. Documents show that GM approved the switch for installation in its …

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Monday, January 27, 2014 – Sniffing Out Weakness

Sniffing Out Weakness by Sinclair Noe DOW – 41 = 15,837SPX – 8 = 1781NAS – 44 = 408310 YR YLD + .04 = 2.76%OIL – .94 = 95.70GOLD – 12.50 = 1257.50SILV – .22 = 19.79 Last week was rough for the Dow Industrial, and today started with the blue chips in the red but not by much; it even looked like we might finish in positive territory. Nahh. The markets have been trending downward over the last week due to a mix of concerns. Emerging market strains, anxiety over tapering by the Federal Reserve, and weak manufacturing data from China likely contributed to a pullback. Also, new home sales were weak in December. The international problems started with a report that Chinese manufacturing may contract for the first time in 6 months. Then Argentina’s central bank limited dollar sales to preserve international reserves that had fallen to a seven-year low. Then there were concerns about a default in the shadow banking system in China. Then there concerns about a corruption scandal for Prime Minister Erdogan’s cabinet in Turkey. Protesters occupied municipal buildings in the Ukraine. Then the South African rand dropped big. Then the whole thing spread. I don’t know what happened in Mexico but the peso took a hit. Bank of America analysts recommended buying the Mexican peso on Nov. 24 as one of their top two Japan-related trades for this year, predicting a rally that would have boosted the currency’s value to 8.4 yen. Instead, the …

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Monday, November 18, 2013 – Activism from Billionaires and Tweeters

Activism from Billionaires and Tweetersby Sinclair Noe DOW + 14 = 15.976SPX – 6 = 1791NAS – 36 = 394910 YR YLD – .04 = 2.66%OIL – .83 = 93.01GOLD – 14.40 = 1277.00SILV – .38 = 20.50 This one didn’t feel like a record high celebration, in part because the major indices closed well off the intraday high. The Dow had been trading above 16,000 for much of the afternoon, but a late sell-off saw the Dow finish below that nice round number; still, it was good enough for another record high close. The S&P 500 hit an intraday high of 1802, but closed in negative territory. Still we mark today’s gains in the Dow in the “win” column and that means we have now had 39 record high closes on the Dow in 2013. The trend is in place, firmly. The rise in the Dow Jones industrials continues to be confirmed by an associated rise in the Dow Jones Transportation Average. A look at the S&P 500 also shows a clear breakout at the top multiyear resistance level. The breakout may be false, due to the lack of active participation, as evidenced by light volume. So far, it has held up pretty well, contrary to its overbought condition. Everything is pointing higher as long as the Fed continues to pump money into the economy; and it looks like they will continue until March, although they could start to taper in January or December. Or maybe Bernanke will go …

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Friday, July 26, 2013 – Notes from the Favela

Notes from the Favela by Sinclair Noe DOW + 3 = 15,558SPX + 1 = 1691NAS + 7 = 3613 10 YR YLD – .01 = 2.56%OIL – .82 = 104.67GOLD – .30 = 1334.80SILV – .26 = 20.09 Earlier in the week, the Dow and S&P hit record highs but the markets slipped; earlier today the Dow was down 150 points. For the week, the Dow rose 0.1 percent, the S&P 500 was flat (even as it hit a record) and the Nasdaq rose 0.7 percent. It’s Friday, and I have a bunch of notes and scraps that have been piling up, so we’ll clean the desk, in no particular order. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan’s final reading on the overall index on consumer sentiment climbed to 85.1 from 84.1 in June, topping expectations for 84. It was the highest level since July 2007 and was also an improvement from July’s initial reading of 83.9. Of course, if you paid a premium subscription, you could have had that information before the rest of the market. Yesterday, I mentioned former Fed Chairman Paul Volker’s remark that the only real financial innovation in the past 20 years was the ATM, which is actually about 30 years old now. And Volker wasn’t quite right; the banks haven’t done any real innovation but the hackers have. For nearly a decade, a band of cybercriminals rampaged through the servers of a global business who’s who: Among the victims were 7-Eleven, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, JetBlue …

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Monday, June 03, 2013 – Cardboard Cutouts, Inflatable Tanks, and the G-8

Cardboard Cutouts, Inflatable Tanks, and the G-8 by Sinclair Noe DOW + 138 = 15,254SPX + 9 = 1640NAS + 9 = 3465 10 YR YLD – .03 = 2.13%OIL + 1.42 = 93.39GOLD + 22.90 = 1412.20SILV + .48 = 22.84 Have you ever heard the expression “Potemkin Village”? That expression which dates back to the story about the head of Russia’s Crimean military campaign, who allegedly created false villages along the Dnieper River to reassure Czarina Catherine II that all was well as she sailed past. Have you ever heard of the Ghost Army? Also, known as the 23rdHeadquarters Special Troops, an elite force whose specialty was tactical deception, they proved their value in World War II. The Ghost Army, some 1,100 men in all, ended up staging more than twenty battlefield deceptions between 1944 and 1945, starting in Normandy two weeks after D-Day and ending in the Rhine River Valley. They used inflatable tanks and airplanes and recordings of the sounds of an army to trick the Germans into thinking there were troops where there weren’t. Have you heard about the G-8 economic conference coming to Northern Ireland in a couple of weeks? Northern Ireland has had a tough time over the past few decades, and in the small town where the G-8 will be meeting, there are quite a few closed down businesses and shuttered storefronts. So, in anticipation of the economic conference, they have been been doing some purely cosmetic surgery. Painting the windows of …

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Thursday, May 23, 2013 – Premature Punch Bowl Withdrawal

Premature Punch Bowl Withdrawal by Sinclair Noe DOW – 12 = 15,294SPX – 4 = 1650NAS – 3 = 345910 YR YLD un = 2.02%OIL + .01 = 94.29GOLD + 21.80 = 1392.50SILV + .36 = 22.73 Yesterday, Fed Chairman Bernanke delivered testimony before the Joint Economic Council and then the minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting were released. The Fed policymakers seem concerned about bubbles. Stock markets have been hanging out near record highs, the S&P is up about 15% year to date. Look back to earlier this year. The boring stocks led us higher. Your mega-cap, super-safe, dividend-paying names were the stocks to own. These stodgy companies sprinted higher for weeks. Safe became the new speculative. Next, the rally broadened. First, it was short squeezes. Then, the rally focused on the more cyclical names. Energy stocks have found a second wind. Small-caps were. Technology names began pushing the market higher. Bloomberg reports that the most indebted US companies are rallying more than any time in almost four years compared with the rest of the market. The bulls argue that stocks will keep going up,even if the Fed takes away the QE punchbowl; the argument is that there are record corporate profits. But then we have to ask why there are record corporate profits. The answer is the Fed’s accommodative monetary policy. The Fed is effectively subsidizing earnings by providing cheap credit for the federal government. Government spending replaces paychecks as a source of income for consumers to consume. Corporations …

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