Financial Review

Dow Up, Oil Down, Quit Your Job

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-13-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW + 40 = 17,652 SPX + 1 = 2039 NAS + 5 = 4680 10 YR YLD – .02 = 2.34% OIL – 2.79 = 74.39 GOLD + .20 = 1162.90 SILV – .01 = 15.77 Record high close for the Dow Industrials. The Nasdaq Composite hasn’t seen record highs since the spring of 2000, when it closed at 5048, which is just 368 points, or about a 7% move from here. If you were unlucky enough to have bought the PowerShares QQQ exchange-traded fund, an ETF that tracks that top 100 non-financial stocks in the Nasdaq, on March 10, 2000, you’d still be in the red on that investment. Tech companies are once again in a leadership role. While Microsoft, Apple and several other tech leaders of today are trading at higher prices than 15 years ago, Intel and Cisco are still well below their 2000 peak prices. Of course the largest company in market cap is Apple at $660 billion. Apple shares have surged more than 40% so far this year, creating more than $160 billion in market value for shareholders, which coincidentally is about the same market cap as IBM, which was once considered the big player in tech. Today, Microsoft passed Exxon to become the second largest company in terms of market capitalization. Exxon has a market cap of $400 billion; Microsoft is worth $408 billion. Exxon’s …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

A Tale of Three Stocks

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-20-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW + 19 = 16,339 SPX + 17 = 1904 NAS + 57 = 4316 10 YR YLD – .02 = 2.18% OIL – .21 = 81.85 GOLD + 8.70 = 1247.90 SILV + .16 = 17.53 A nice bounce in the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq Composite. For most of the session, the Dow was in negative territory, clawing its way to positive, barely. There are 3 stocks that had a compelling story today. We start with IBM, which reported its third-quarter results; a 10th consecutive period of falling sales, marked by weaker performance in growth markets. IBM said its long-standing forecast of earnings per share of $20 for 2015 is no longer achievable. IBM lowered its forecast for free cash flow. The company said it was selling its money-losing chip-making business to GlobalFoundries, a move to further cut costs and focus on its more profitable, faster-growing businesses. Once upon a time, IBM was a pioneer in advancing semiconductor technology, its manufacturing capability fell behind others that produced chips in large volume, but now they will have to pay GlobalFoundries $1.5 billion to take the chip division, while taking a $4.7 billion charge. IBM has been divesting slower-growing and unprofitable businesses, but like many older tech companies, it is caught in the middle; sloughing off the old and expensive without yet having a foothold in the new. Some customers are …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Behind the Curtain

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-16-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW – 24 = 16,117 SPX + 0.27 = 1862 NAS + 2 = 4217 10 YR YLD + .06 = 2.15% OIL + 1.16 = 82.94 GOLD – 2.20 = 1239.90 SILV – .08 = 17.47 The Dow is down for a sixth consecutive session. We started the morning down almost 200 points, so there is that. Part of yesterday’s volatility is being blamed on mini-flash crashes; 179 to be precise. Basically the high frequency traders yank their bids, as their algorithms try to catch up with big moves. It isn’t really a flash crash so much as a lack of liquidity. Take a deep breath. Think about how you are invested. Consider whether you are diversified across asset classes. The market has not collapsed. It has gone down in a fairly fast and furious manner, but it has not collapsed. What will happen next? Will the market bounce back? Will it go sideways? Will the pullback continue and become really painful? You don’t know; I don’t know; the market doesn’t know; nobody knows. Take a deep breath, consider where you are and where you want to be in the future. The stock market is always a gamble. Maybe you want to gamble with a part of your money, and that’s fine. Maybe you are tired of gambling and want to find something safer; that’s cool, too. Just understand what you’re …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

War, Pay Phones, Small Business and Big Banks

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-24-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW + 154 = 17,210 SPX + 15 = 1998 NAS + 46 = 4555 10 YR YLD + .03 = 2.57% OIL + 1.18 = 92.80 GOLD – 6.30 = 1217.60 SILV – .11 = 17.78 President Obama addressed the United Nations General Assembly today. He condemned ISIS, and said there was no reasoning and no negotiation with their brand of evil. He said the US “will work with a broad coalition to dismantle this network of death”; that coalition is now up to 40 countries. He urged Muslims to reject the ideology of ISIS and al-Qaeda. He also announced a US warplanes hit ISIS vehicles and arms dumps in new air strikes in Iraq and Syria. ISIS continues to advance in Syria and aid agencies report some 130,000 Kurdish refugees have crossed into Turkey in the past few days. An Algerian jihadist group linked to ISIS has released a video which it says shows militants beheading a French tourist. The president’s speech also criticized Russia for the recent invasion of Ukraine. Today, NATO reports Russia has withdrawn a sizable number of its troops from eastern Ukraine, although some remain. Russian backed rebels in the region said they had begun pulling back their heavy artillery after Ukrainian troops did the same. For now, the cease fire appears to be holding. The stock market recovered after three days of losses; for the …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

War, Inversions, and Climate

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-23-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW – 116 = 17,055 SPX – 11 = 1982 NA – 19 = 4508 10 YR YLD – .03 = 2.53% OIL + .06 = 91.62 GOLD + 8.10 = 1223.90 SILV + .05 = 17.88 First up: war. You’ve probably heard by now that the US launched several airstrikes against ISIS targets inside Syria and, separately, in potentially averting an imminent threat to the homeland from an al Qaeda group called Khorasan. Many of the targets were in and around Raqqa, Syria, believed to be an ISIS stronghold. Several Arab nations took part in the US-led operation: Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. A spokesman for the Pentagon said they are still assessing the effectiveness of the bombing campaign but the Pentagon believes they were “successful in hitting what we were aiming at.” The airstrikes against Khorasan was in response to threats, however officials so far have provided no details about the terrorists’ planned attack or the credibility of the intelligence they had on it. A Pentagon spokesman said “the individuals plotting and planning it were eliminated.” The Syrian government says the US told it of plans to carry out airstrikes. The State Department immediately denied that it gave prior notification. Reuters reports Iranian officials were informed of the airstrikes in advance, but not specific targets. Meanwhile, the Israeli military said that it had shot down …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Timing is………..Everything

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-10-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW + 54 = 17, 068 SPX + 7 = 1995 NAS + 34 = 4586 10 YR YLD + .03 = 2.53% OIL – 1.13 = 91.67 GOLD – 6.80 = 1250.00 SILV – .12 = 19.04 Later today, at 6PM local time or 9PM eastern, President Obama will address the nation and lay out his strategy to degrade and destroy the Islamic State insurgency operating in Iraq and Syria. This will likely involve significant escalation of the US military role in the area, but we aren’t sure about the intervention in Syria; probably a combination of airstrikes, and support for more moderate Syrian forces willing to carry out attacks on both ISIS and Assad; along with regional allies providing on the ground support. The president has pledged there will not be boots on the ground. He said: “This is not the equivalent of the Iraq war. What this is similar to is the kinds of counter-terrorism campaigns that we’ve been engaging in consistently over the last five, six, seven years.” Which sounds like a distinction without a difference. Earlier today an administration spokesman said: “The president will discuss how we are building a coalition of allies and partners in the region and in the broader international community to support our efforts, and will talk about how we work with the Congress as a partner in these efforts.” That doesn’t mean …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Apple Bites

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-09-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW – 97 = 17,013 SPX – 13 = 1988 NAS – 40 = 4552 10 YR YLD + .03 = 2.50% OIL + .05 = 92.80 GOLD + .30 = 1256.80 SILV + .04 = 19.16 Today’s epiphany is courtesy of Apple; they unveiled not one but three new things. Let’s examine. The iPhone 6 is the new phone, and it is a little bit bigger than the old phone. And they even have an iPhone 6 plus, which is a little bit bigger. So, the new phones won’t fit in your pocket anymore. I know, it’s like the most totally incredible thing ever. The Apple Watch is smaller than the old phone; so small it can be strapped on your wrist. It even has a dial so older people will realize it is supposed to be a watch and not just a little phone strapped to your wrist. It is called the Apple Watch because iWatch was just a little too creepy. The third thing is Apple Pay, which is a payment processing service that has Apple partnering with American Express, MasterCard, and Visa so you can pay for purchases with a big iPhone 6 or an Apple Watch, just like you can pay for things with an American Express, MasterCard, or Visa credit card. The big difference is this is new technology, whereas the credit card is like 50 …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

A Messy Business

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCALIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-04-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review 09-04-2014 DOW – 8 = 17,069 SPX – 3 = 1997 NAS – 10 = 4562 10 YR YLD + .02 = 2.45% OIL – .98 = 94.56 GOLD – 8.40 = 1261.90 SILV – .11 = 19.16 Wall Street tried to rally but fizzled instead. The Dow and the S&P 500 hit new intraday records, only to close down on the day. The S&P energy index ended down 1.3% as the day’s worst performing sector in the S&P. Crude oil futures lost 1.1% to $94.56 as the dollar strengthened and weighed on commodities. Tomorrow brings the monthly jobs report. Payrolls processing firm ADP said private-sector payrolls increased by 204,000 last month after rising by 212,000 in July, with gains spread across a range of industries. While the report was a bit softer than expected, it marked the fifth straight month of gains above 200,000. The ADP report does not always predict the government jobs report but it is a general indicator of the report. The Institute for Supply Management said its services index rose from 58.7 in July to 59.6 last month, the highest reading since its inception in January 2008. The Commerce Department said the US trade deficit fell 0.6% to $40.5 billion in July, its smallest size since January. When adjusted for inflation, it reached its narrowest point since December 2013. A new survey from the Federal Reserve shows …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Wednesday, April 23, 2014 – A Brilliant Future From Cool Ideas

A Brilliant Future From Cool Ideas by Sinclair Noe DOW – 12 = 16,501SPX – 4 = 1875NAS – 34 = 412610 YR YLD – .05 = 2.68%OIL – .2- = 101.55GOLD un 1284.70SILV + .06 = 19.55 It’s earnings season, and this is a chance to compare and contrast. This morning, Facebook posted earnings of $642 million in net income, or 25 cents a share, in the first quarter, versus $219 million, or 9 cents a share in the year ago period. Overall revenue grew 72% year-on-year to $2.5 billion in the first quarter, topping estimates. Facebook now has 1.28 billion active users, and more than 1 billion do their Facebook stuff on a mobile device. Then Facebook announced their Financial Director was resigning. Shares were up about 3%. Nobody puts on a better presentation than Apple, that’s how they grew to be the most valuable company in the world. Steve Jobs would walk out and announce Apple had created a new mp3 player, and also a new way to connect to the internet, and also a new camera. Wow, three new products, nope…, he would hold up the iPhone – just one very cool thing from Apple; tech geeks heads would explode. Today, Apple posted earnings of $10.2 billion or $11.62 a share, on revenue of $45.6 billion. Analysts expected the company to report earnings excluding items of $10.18 a share; Apple reported a 4.6% rise in March-quarter revenue to $45.6 billion; Apple sold 43.7 million iPhones in …

READ MORE →
Uncategorized

Tuesday, April 01, 2014 – Murderers and Cheats

Murderers and Cheatsby Sinclair Noe DOW + 74 = 16,532SPX + 13 = 1885NAS + 69 = 426810 YR YLD + .04 = 2.76%OIL – 1.99 = 99.59GOLD – 5. 00 = 1280.80SILV un = 19,86 Congratulations Mary Barra, you’ve been named CEO of General Motors, one of the biggest companies in America; now head on over to Capitol Hill to take the blame for the people who used to run the company. Barra’s appearance before a subcommittee of the House Energy and Commerce Committee represented a significant new phase in the company’s crisis since it issued recalls that began in February for 2.6 million Cobalts and other vehicles. The problems with the cars involve faulty ignition switches; GM repeatedly failed to fix faulty ignition switches, despite conducting multiple internal studies of the problem since 2001, and 13 people died in the defective vehicles. Members of Congress and the families of people killed in GM cars are urging Barra to declare the cars unsafe to drive until new ignition switches are installed. So far, GM has said the vehicles are safe to operate as long as there are no objects attached to the ignition key.  GM conducted several internal investigations of the switch problems, dating back as far as 2001. Company engineers learned that the key in the ignition could be inadvertently bumped into the off or accessory position, causing the engine to lose power and disabling air bags. Documents show that GM approved the switch for installation in its …

READ MORE →