Financial Review

Walk On

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-09-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-09-2015   DOW – 239 = 16,253 SPX – 27 = 1942 NAS – 55 = 4756 10 YR YLD – .01 = 2.18% OIL – 1.79 = 44.15 GOLD – 15.60 = 1106.80 SILV – .19 = 14.71   Wall Street opened higher; part of a global rally for stocks. Japan’s Nikkei index was up 7.7%, bouncing off 11 month lows. Equities in China rose as the finance ministry pledged to accelerate construction of some major projects. European stocks moved higher this morning, with France leading the way. But it didn’t last. The S&P energy sector led declines among the S&P 500 sectors, falling 1.3 percent, as oil prices dropped.   The World Bank’s chief economist is warning that the Federal Reserve risks triggering “panic and turmoil” in emerging markets if it opts to raise rates at its September meeting and should hold fire until the global economy is on a surer footing. Kaushik Basu told the Financial Times that rising uncertainty over growth in China and its impact on the global economy meant a Fed decision to raise its policy rate next week, for the first time since 2006, would have negative consequences. His warning highlights the mounting concern outside the US over the Fed’s potential “lift-off”. It follows similar advice from the International Monetary Fund. That means that if the Fed’s policymakers were to decide next week to raise …

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Financial Review

No Rhyme nor Reason

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-08-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-08-2015   DOW + 390 = 16,492 SPX + 48 = 1969 NAS + 128 = 4811 10 YR YLD + .06 = 2.19% OIL – .11 = 45.94 GOLD – 1.40 = 1122.40 SILV + .22 = 14.90   There is no particular rhyme nor reason to explain today’s rally on Wall Street, or for that matter, last week’s declines. Last Friday’s jobs report did little to provide clarity about whether the Fed would raise rates at next week’s FOMC meeting.   The economy added 173,000 jobs in August, which was below expectations; and the unemployment rate dropped to 5.1%. Following Friday’s employment data, futures market traders predicted about a 20 percent chance a rate hike will come this month, down from around 30 percent before the jobs report. I think the Fed might act next week, just to clear the air. If you remember back to the “taper tantrum” of 2013, when the markets became jittery about the prospect of the end of Quantitative Easing, the anticipation was worse than the actual event. So, the easiest thing might just be to do it and be done.   Of course, it is easy to argue against a rate hike. The U-6 unemployment rate is still around 10.3%; some people consider this the “real” unemployment rate because it includes part-time employees seeking full-time jobs and marginally employed workers. …

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Financial Review

Remain Buckled Up

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-24-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-24-2015 DOW – 588 = 15,871 SPX – 77 = 1893 NAS – 179 = 4526 10 YR YLD – .06 = 2.00% OIL – 2.30 = 38.06 GOLD – 5.50 = 1155.90 SILV – .56 = 14.89   The “Fasten Your Seatbelt” sign stayed on for the entire trip.   The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1089 points, or 6%, to 15,441 to start the session; that was the largest intraday drop in Dow history. The S&P 500 opened 100 points, or 4.9%, lower at 1,874. The Nasdaq Composite began the day down 360 points, or 7.6%, to 4,349. All three major US market indexes are now in correction territory, a 10% drop from a recent high. The latest round of selling comes on the heels of the worst week for the broad S&P 500 since 2011 that stripped more than $1 trillion in market value from US equities.   Before the market opened, Dow futures, S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures triggered circuit breakers after falling at least 5%. The New York Stock Exchange operator NYSE Group invoked the rarely used “Rule 48,” which relaxes some trading rules in a bid to ensure a smooth opening to trading. The rule is instituted when trading before the start of the regular session is especially volatile. At the market open, a slew of single stocks and exchange-traded products triggered single-stock …

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Financial Review

Summer Stall

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-04-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review By Sinclair Noe DOW – 47 = 17,550 SPX – 4 = 2093 NAS – 9 = 5105 10 YR YLD + .06 = 2.21% OIL + .80 = 45.97 GOLD + 1.40 = 1088.50 SILV + .08 = 14.68   Corelogic reports home prices rose 1.7% in June, and nationwide home prices including distressed sales, increased by 6.5% over the past 12 months. Fifteen states and the District of Columbia were the strongest since the series began in 1976. Only four states – Massachusetts, Connecticut, Louisiana and Mississippi – saw year-over-year declines.   Orders for goods produced in US factories rose 1.8% in June. Orders for durable goods, products meant to last at least three years, advanced 3.4% in June. Orders for nondurable goods edged up 0.4%.Factory activity has been stymied by a strong dollar and spending cuts in the energy sector after last year’s sharp plunge in crude oil prices. Tepid global demand also has weighed on manufacturing, which accounts for about 12 percent of the domestic economy.   Greece expects to wrap up its bailout deal with international creditors by Aug. 18, with the drafting of the agreement to begin Wednesday. The ongoing talks are reaching the end of the first phase, with the second phase to include the details of the final deal. The Greek stock market reopened yesterday, after being shut down for 5 weeks; yesterday the Athens Stock Exchange index …

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Financial Review

Casino Mentality

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-22-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 68 = 17,851 SPX – 5 = 2114 NAS – 36 = 5171 10 YR YLD – .02 = 2.32% OIL – 1.62 = 49.24 GOLD – 7.00 = 1095.00 SILV – .05 = 14.90   As of today, Wall Street will have to comply with the “Volcker rule,” which bans taxpayer-insured banks from making bets with their own money. Although major financial institutions have fought for years to change the rule, they have for the most part fallen in line – shedding their proprietary-trading desks, pulling money from certain investment funds and ceasing other speculative activities. The new rule has also changed much of the industry. The five largest U.S. investment banks cut staff on bond sales and trading desks by 18% from 2011 to 2014, while 1,428 new hedge funds were launched during the same period.   Greek MPs are debating a second set of reforms they need to approve to secure a €86 billion-euro bailout, as thousands protest against further austerity measures. The protest outside parliament briefly turned violent. Earlier, Greece’s PM urged rebels within his own Syriza party to support the reforms demanded by creditors. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank has increased its cash lifeline to Greek banks with an emergency injection of an extra €900 million-euro, the ECB’s second in a week, coming just hours before the vote.   The National Association of …

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Financial Review

Into the Ditch

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-21-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS  Financial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW -181 = 17,919 SPX – 9 = 2119 NAS -10 = 5208 10 YR YLD – 3 = 2.34% OIL + .21 = 50.36 GOLD + 3.30 = 1102.00 SILV + .18 = 14.95     Earnings reporting season continues with about one-quarter of S&P 500 companies scheduled to report this week. Among the gainers: Harley Davidson posted second quarter earnings and revenue that topped expectations, Travelers posted a second-quarter profit that was better than expected, due to fewer losses from catastrophes. Among the decliners: United Technologies issued a profit warning and announced that its aerospace and elevator units will be below expectations due to a strong dollar and China’s economic slump, IBM’s second quarter earnings fell 17% and revenue dropped 13%, Verizon posted better than expected earnings but revenue missed estimates, Lexmark swung to a loss and announced it will cut 500 jobs.   The big news in earnings came from some of the biggest names: Apple and Microsoft. Apple sold 47.5 million iPhones, a 35 percent gain, in the period that ended in June. Analysts had anticipated 48.8 million shipments. Net income in the fiscal third quarter, which ended in June, was $10.7 billion, or $1.85 a share, while revenue rose 33 percent to $49.6 billion. Analysts on average had forecast third-quarter profit of $1.81 a share on sales of $49.4 billion. The gross margin was 39.7 percent, …

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Financial Review

Burn the Doors

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-13-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 217 = 17,977 SPX + 22 = 2099 NAS + 73 = 5071 10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.43% OIL – .35 = 51.85 GOLD – 5.30 = 1158.50 SILV – .12 = 15.60   Greece and Eurozone creditors reached a tentative agreement that might unlock about $95 billion in new aid to Greece in exchange for new tough concessions by the Athens government, which included reforms to the pension system, higher taxes, and privatization. However, the €85 billion-euro deal is not official until the Greek parliament on Wednesday passes the deal; and that might be a tough ask given the “no” vote in the recent referendum. Before we get to a Wednesday vote in Athens, there are several Eurozone finance ministers that will have to approve a €12 billion-euro package of short-term bridge financing, to allow the Greek banks to reopen. If the new deal is approved, the bank “holiday” could be lifted as soon as Thursday. And then after that, the Euro Union countries would have to sign off on a deal, unanimously. So, it’s a very complicated deal with considerable risk. Wall Street has never been good at reading the fine print, and stocks moved higher today on the idea that the never-ending negotiations over Greek debt might finally be ending, when in fact, they are just kicking into another gear.   And …

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Financial Review

The Last Century of Fossil Fuels

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-08-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 82 = 17,766 SPX – 13 = 2079 NAS – 46 = 5021 10 YR YLD – .02 = 2.38% OIL + .14 = 58.28 GOLD + 1.40 = 1174.70 SILV – .17 = 16.06   The Standard & Poor’s 500 closed out 2014 at 2,058, and since then it has been trading in a fairly tight range, from about 2050 to 2130. It’s been 3 1/2 years since the broad stock market suffered a 10% drop. At some point the market will either break out or breakdown, but we didn’t see any real indications today. Even though the major market indices have hit record highs this year, the Dow, with today’s loss, is in negative territory year to date.   In contrast, international markets have been anything but boring. Germany’s DAX entered correction territory, down 10%, as European stocks declined on continuation of Greek debt negotiations. And Wednesday could be a very interesting day for Chinese stock exchanges, where the Shenzen has been on a run; up 50% year to date. Index provider MSCI will announce tomorrow whether to include China’s domestic markets in its widely followed emerging-market and global indexes. Rival index provider FTSE Group has already inaugurated transitional indexes for emerging markets to include Chinese A-shares, while S&P Dow Jones Indices said it would likely add the shares to its indexes in September. The new …

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Financial Review

Milk and Cookies

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-18-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 26 = 18,298.99 (record) SPX + 6 = 2129.20 (record) NAS + 30 =  5078 10 YR YLD + .09 = 2.23% OIL – .14 = 59.55 GOLD + 2.30 = 1226.80 SILV + .19 = 17.78   Record high close for the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Whenever the S&P 500 hits a record high close we mention it. Whenever the Dow hits a record high close we have a celebration with milk and cookies. Our reasoning is that we never know if or when we will see another record high close. Sure, the Dow could hit another record high tomorrow, or it might falter and it could be 5 years or ten years until we see a record, or maybe never. So today we celebrate.   The rationale behind these record highs is suspect. Last week’s economic news was disappointing, and the bad news moved the markets higher, mainly on the idea that the Fed will be slower to raise rates. Retail sales were weak, industrial production was flat and capacity utilization decreased.  Consumers aren’t spending what’s left over after lower oil prices, instead, they are increasing personal savings. A new survey from Princeton Research shows 19% saved the difference from the gas pump, 4% invested, and only 14% took the savings from lower gas prices and went out and spent it …

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Financial Review

Trending

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-28-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 72 = 18,110 SPX + 5 = 2114 NAS – 4 = 5055 10 YR YLD + .05 = 1.97% OIL – .06 = 56.93 GOLD + 10.10 =  1212.80 SILV + .21 = 16.71   House prices picked up in February, rising 0.5%, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city composite index. After seasonal adjustments, home prices rose 0.9% in February, matching January’s gain. Compared with February 2014, prices for the 20-city index were up 5%, the fastest growth in half a year. Home prices in Phoenix gained 0.3% for the month and 2.9% for the 12 month period.   The Commerce Department reports home ownership slipped to a 25 year low of 63.8% in the first quarter. The home ownership rate peaked at 69.4% in 2004. Household formation increased by 1.5 million in the first quarter. More people, starting more households, but they aren’t buying homes. With many Americans still showing an aversion to homeownership, the gains in household formation largely are being driven by renters.   Consumer confidence declined in April to a four-month low as Americans’ views of the labor market and the outlook on the economy deteriorated. The Conference Board’s index dropped to 95.2 from a revised 101.4 reading in March. The report showed fewer respondents said jobs were plentiful in April and income expectations cooled, signaling consumers will remain guarded about spending. The …

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Financial Review

Somewhere Between Extremes

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-27-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 42 = 18,037 SPX – 8 = 2108 NAS – 31 = 5060 10 YR YLD + .01 = 1.92% OIL – .16 = 56.99 GOLD + 21.30 = 1201.70 SILV + .65 = 16.50   We’ll get to the economic news in a minute, but the big market news today is Apple. Net income in the quarter that ended in March was $13.6 billion, or $2.33 a share, representing a 33% jump in profit from last quarter. Analysts on average had forecast second-quarter profit of $12.6 billion, or $2.16 a share. Revenue rose 27 percent to $58 billion, beating estimates of $56 billion. IPhone sales in greater China outpaced those in the U.S. for the first time. Total revenue from greater China surged 71 percent to $16.8 billion. IPhone unit sales jumped 40 percent to 61.2 million. That topped analysts’ average prediction for 58.1 million.   Apple forecast the momentum will continue in the third quarter, with revenue projected to rise to $46 billion to $48 billion from $37.4 billion a year ago. Apple has $193 billion in cash, with a capital return program, which now totals $200 billion. Apple will increase its share-buyback authorization by $50 billion to $140 billion, and increase the company’s dividend by 11 percent; to 52 cents from 47 cents.   To recap: Apple posted better than expected sales and profit; they …

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Financial Review

Chips and Salsa Like 1999

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-24-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 21 = 18,080 SPX + 4 = 2117 NAS + 36 = 5092 10 YR YLD – .03 = 1.92% OIL – .58 = 57.16   Yesterday, the Nasdaq closed at 5,056, finally surpassing its tech-boom peak of 5,048 set in March 2000. It only took a little over 15 years to get back to those levels. Today the party continued. The S&P 500 hit a new record high close, but just barely; topping the March 2 record by a fraction. For the week, the Nasdaq surged 3.2% and the S&P 500 jumped 1.8%. The Dow added 1.4%.   WTI crude oil closed down 58 cents at $57.16 a barrel, retreating from Thursday’s 2015 high of $58.41. It rose for a sixth straight week, its longest such stretch since the first quarter of 2014. This week’s gain was 2.5 percent. After a sell-off between June and January driven by oversupply, oil prices seem to have found their footing in the last three months, gaining about 33 percent from a low in March.   In the past year, there’s been an inverse relationship between the price of crude oil and the relative performance of retail stocks. Also, most retailers aren’t hurt by a stronger dollar; rather, it helps because items imported to the US are cheaper. An almost 60 percent decline in oil between June 2014 and mid-March contributed …

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Financial Review

Times Change

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-19-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 117 = 17,959 SPX – 10 = 2089 NAS + 9 = 4992 10 YR YLD + .02 = 1.97% OIL – .81 = 43.85 GOLD + 4.10 = 1172.00 SILV+ .22 = 16.21   The Federal Reserve wrapped up a two-day FOMC meeting yesterday; and the stock market responded with a rally; the dollar dropped initially. After a day of consideration, stocks slipped and the dollar clawed back gains.  Oil prices rose yesterday and dropped again today. You could make the case that the Fed has maintained an overly accommodative monetary policy for too long, or you could argue that the economy will take a hit if the Fed hikes interest rates too soon. The Fed removed its pledge to be patient in tightening policy, while also cutting its forecast for the economy. Go figure.   Initial jobless claims edged up by 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 291,000 in the period stretching from March 8 to March 14.  New claims have tracked below 300,000 for the second straight week after spiking to a 10-month high of 325,000 at the end of February in what now appears to have been weather-related quirk.   The Commerce Department said the current account gap, which measures the flow of goods, services and investments into and out of the country, increased to $113 billion from a $98 billion deficit in the …

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Financial Review

How Low Did We Go

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-09-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 138 = 17,995 SPX +8 = 2079 NAS + 15 = 4942 10 YR YLD – .05 = 2.20% OIL – 26 = 50.00 GOLD – 1.80 = 1167.90 SILV – .20 = 15.83   “How Low Can Stocks Go?” That was the headline in the Wall Street Journal 6 years ago. The Dow was still slogging through 4 straight weeks of losses to close at 6547. The S&P 500 was at a 12 year low of 676. The Nasdaq Composite closed at 1268.   Not many people called it at the time. A few did. John Bogle called it 2 weeks early. Barack Obama called it 5 days early. Mark Haines called it one day late. Of course, after all four tires go flat you might not make the prediction that there will be a fifth flat tire. Nobody was really confident about a bottom until about the end of the year. The current bull market is the fourth-longest on record; it’s also the fourth strongest. When will the bull market end? No idea. I could call the end of the bull market every day, and one day I would be right but that would be a waste off time for all of us.   For now, we have a nice bounce from the sell-off on Friday. Friday we learned the economy added 295,000 jobs last …

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Financial Review

It’s About to Get Hot

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-13-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:17 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 46 = 18,019 SPX + 8 = 2096 NAS + 36 = 4893 10 YR YLD + .04 = 2.02% OIL + 1.43 = 52.46 GOLD + 6.20 = 1228.90 SILV + .48 = 17.42 The S&P 500 Index closed at an all-time high, taking out the previous record close from December 29. Whenever the S&P 500 hits a record high, we acknowledge it, but for some reason we don’t have a big celebration. When the Dow Industrials hit records we have the orchestra, the parade, milk and cookies; it’s a big ridiculous mess, but S&P 500 record high close; well done, attaboy, next.   Next would be the Russell 2000 index of small and mid-cap stocks hitting a record high close. Well done, next.   The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished above 18,000 for the first time this year. The Nasdaq Composite ended at its highest level since March 2000. For the week, the S&P 500 gained 2%. The Dow Industrial Average was up 1.1% on the week. For the second day, American Express led declines for the Dow, following news Costco was ending its exclusive business arrangement with AmEx. The Nasdaq Composite gained 3% over the past week, and is now within a few percentage points of record highs. The Russell 2000 gained 1.5% on the week.   In economic news, consumer sentiment slipped in …

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Financial Review

Goodnight and Good Luck

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-11-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe   DOW – 6 = 17,862 SPX – .06 = 2068 NAS + 13 = 4801 10 YR YLD un = 1.98% OIL – .75 = 49.27 President Obama has asked Congress for formal authorization to fight the Islamic State that would prohibit the use of “enduring offensive ground forces” and limit engagement to three years. The proposed resolution says Islamic State “has committed despicable acts of violence and mass execution.” Its militants have killed thousands of civilians while seizing territory in Iraq and Syria in an attempt to establish a hub of jihadism in the heart of the Arab world. Don’t expect a quick vote by Congress, maybe something in March, maybe just more talk.   We keep hearing that ISIS is growing, and one way they recruit jihadists to their cause is through slick websites and social media. So, you might be wondering why the government doesn’t just close down those sites. I don’t know, but today, the hacktivist group Anonymous has launched a massive cyber-attack against ISIS. A list of more than hundred Twitter and Facebook accounts suspected to belong to Islamic militants has been released by Anonymous. Twitter has already suspended more than 1500 ISIS accounts since the group released the first list in June, 2014 and dozens of militant recruiting websites were knocked offline using collective DDoS Attack. Thousands of Twitter accounts associated with ISIS are still active and spreading jihadist propaganda, but …

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Financial Review

Anti-Austerity Gets Wind in Sails

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-02-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 12:46 — 5.8MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 196 = 17,361 SPX + 25 = 2020 NAS + 41 = 4676 10 YR YLD – .01 = 1.67% OIL + 1.59 = 49.83 GOLD – 9.30 = 1274.80 SILV – .05 = 17.28 Americans cut spending in December by the largest amount since 2009; we knew spending on energy would be lower but consumers did not rush out and spend the money. Household savings from lower energy costs, were partly offset in December by higher spending on drugs, health care and housing. These expenses continue to eat up a large portion of American incomes. Incomes posted another solid gain and falling inflation is allowing Americans to get more bang for their buck. Personal spending fell a seasonally adjusted 0.3% last month. Personal income, meanwhile, rose 0.3%. Since income growth outpaced spending, the amount of money individuals save jumped to 4.9% from 4.3% to mark the highest level since midsummer. The Commerce Department reports construction spending rose 0.4% in December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate $982.1 billion, led by public spending. Private-construction spending rose 0.1% in December, with a 0.3% increase for residential projects and a 0.2% decline for nonresidential projects. Meanwhile, public-construction spending rose 1.1% in December. The ISM Manufacturing Report for January dropped from 55.1 to 53.5. Any reading above 50 indicates the manufacturing sector is expanding, just not as fast. Germany’s Angela …

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Financial Review

Ugly With Snow Flurries

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-27-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 291 = 17,387 SPX – 27 = 2029 NAS – 90 = 4681 10 YR YLD un 1.82% OIL + .65 = 42.80 GOLD + 10.80 = 1293.10 SILV + .13 = 18.13 New York City was shut down overnight. That “blizzard of the century” was indeed a bad storm but not the predicted “snowpocalyspe”, even though authorities shut down schools, roads, subways, and rail; and more than 8,000 flights were cancelled. Turned out to be an overabundance of caution. New England was socked quite solidly, but not the Big Apple. Weather forecasters got it wrong; not the first time. And once again we were reminded that the news media is centered in New York. (The bad news is that Wall Street opened this morning.) Let’s start with a few economic reports. Home prices edge 0.2% lower in November. The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city composite index dipped 0.2% in November and that lowered the year-on-year advance to 4.3%, down from a reading of 4.5% in October. Phoenix posted a 0.2% increase in home prices in November, but the year-on-year advance was only 1.9%. The Case-Shiller report looks at resales of existing homes. Also today, the Commerce Department reported a big increase in new home sales; up 11.6% last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 481,000. The gains were not enough to offset essentially flat home-buying over the …

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Financial Review

Flowers for Angela

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-26-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:19 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 6 = 17, 678 SPX + 5 = 2057 NAS + 13 = 4771 10 YR YLD + .01 = 1.83% OIL – .49 = 45.10 GOLD – 12.80 = 1282.30 SILV – .39 = 18.01 It’s snowing in New York; this is a really, really big blizzard and it could dump up to 3 feet of snow across the northeast, with winds up to 60 miles per hour. The storm has already caused more than 1,800 flight cancellations, roads are closed in New York City except for emergency vehicles, rail traffic is also shut down, and schools are closed, and expect power outages across the Northeast. The Super Bowl will be this weekend in Glendale, and temperatures are expected to be mid-70’s. The folks at the Phoenix Chamber of Commerce are doing their happy dance. This week’s economic calendar is packed, plus we are in earnings reporting season and some big names will post results this week. Microsoft reported after the close today, and we’ll get to that in just a moment. Apple reports tomorrow. Shell, Europe’s largest oil company, reports results on Thursday; it could be an early indicator of the damage being done to company earnings by lower oil prices. Ford Motor, the nation’s second-largest automaker, reports fourth-quarter earnings on Thursday. On Wednesday, the Fed will end its two-day policy meeting with a statement …

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Financial Review

Faster and Faster but No Liftoff

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-25-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 2 = 17,814 SPX – 2 = 2067 NAS+ 3 = 4758 10 YR YLD – .05 = 2.26% OIL – 1.95 = 74.22 GOLD + 2.90 = 1202.20 SILV + .20 = 16.77 The major stock indices couldn’t close at records, but Apple reached a milestone today. Apple’s market capitalization hit a record $700 billion; that’s double from 3 years ago when Tim Cook became CEO. Apple is the first S&P 500 company to ever reach a $700 billion market cap. Yet, on an inflation-adjusted basis, it still has way to go to be the most valuable company of all time. Microsoft’s market cap peak of $613 billion in 1999 translates to nearly $874 billion in 2014 dollars. When Microsoft was at the top, it was trading at 72 times earnings. Apple’s price-to-earnings ratio is currently 18, in line with the overall S&P. It’s a little tough to imagine what Apple will do in the future to match the growth they’ve experienced in the past. The economy is better than you thought. The Commerce Department revised its estimate of third quarter gross domestic product from 3.5% up to 3.9%. There will be another revision before settling on a final number. Second quarter GDP came in at a 4.6% growth rate; combined second and third quarter GDP was the strongest back to back growth since 2003. Let’s …

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