Financial Review

Show Me the Data

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-12-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-12-2015 DOW – 254 = 17,448 SPX – 29 = 2045 NAS – 61 = 5005 10 YR YLD – .02 = 2.32% OIL – 1.28 = 41.65 GOLD – 1.70 = 1085.50 SILV – .11 = 14.34   Crude oil fell below $42 a barrel, its lowest price since August, while copper, gold and silver reached six-year lows. Energy, mining and metals companies fell. Caterpillar, Exxon Mobil and Chevron had the biggest losses in the Dow Jones Industrial average. The Dow and the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index are now negative for the year.   The Energy Information Administration just released its latest weekly look at the US oil market, and it shows that US crude stockpiles are just 3 million barrels off the record 490 million barrel record in April.  Crude stockpiles grew by 4.2 million barrels last week. A private report released Wednesday had shown an even larger increase. The biggest factors have been a slowdown in demand, and China’s slowdown is a big part of that equation. Meanwhile, oil producers just keep pumping; US shale production has slowed and will likely slow more, even though it remains stubbornly high; OPEC refuses to cut production and the more oil prices fall, the faster they pump.   Prices for copper and other commodities were slumping as investors anticipated that the dollar would become even stronger. The price …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Slow Motion Domino

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-10-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:17 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-10-2015 DOW + 27 = 17,758 SPX + 3 = 2081 NAS – 12 = 5083 10 YR YLD – .02 = 2.32% OIL + .22 = 44.09 GOLD – 2.50 = 1090.40 SILV – .14 = 14.54   Crude prices are set for a slow recovery, according to the latest report from the International Energy Agency, which warned against the deep investment cutbacks in the industry. In its World Energy Outlook, the IEA’s central scenario for oil prices forecast that the market would rebalance at around $50 to $80 per barrel in 2020, (a not very precise guess) “with further increases in price thereafter.” It also predicted that collectively, the U.S., EU and Japan would see their oil demand drop by around 10 million barrels a day by 2040.   Oil production from the Bakken and Eagle Ford shale plays in the U.S. has been falling since March. Total oil output from seven major U.S. shale regions is expected to fall by 118,000 barrels a day to about 4.95 million barrels a day in December. There is no evidence at current prices that rig drilling activity will recover any time this year, so we can expect ever lower production every month well into 2016. That doesn’t mean a quick increase in prices, in part because Iranian oil is expected to come online as sanctions are lifted, and also …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Rockets and Rocks

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-23-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 119 = 17,731 SPX – 12 = 2102 NAS – 25 = 5146 10 YR YLD – .05 = 2.27% OIL – .74 = 48.45 GOLD – 3.60 = 1091.40 SILV – .14 = 14.76   Greece can begin bailout talks. Greece’s parliament approved new reforms that pave the way for Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras to begin negotiating his country’s third bailout. Parliament overwhelmingly approved the measures, but roughly a quarter of Tsipras’ Syriza party voted against the reforms. Now Greece and its creditors will begin working out the details of the latest bailout package, the third for Athens in the past five years. Nearly everyone agrees that Greek debt is unsustainably high, but that’s where the agreement ends. The IMF on July 14th issued a report calling for debt relief, a 180 turn from their earlier demands of austerity. The monetary fund recommended either a “very dramatic extension” of payment deadlines by up to 30 years or “deep upfront haircuts,” banker jargon for write-offs.   Lots of headlines flew out of Asia  overnight: Japan’s exports increased the most in five months in June, fueled by strengthening overseas demand, but imports remained subdued due to the effect of lower commodity prices. South Korea’s economy logged its weakest expansion in six years in Q2, recording just 0.3% growth from the previous quarter, as the country got battered by a MERS …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Burn the Doors

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-13-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 217 = 17,977 SPX + 22 = 2099 NAS + 73 = 5071 10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.43% OIL – .35 = 51.85 GOLD – 5.30 = 1158.50 SILV – .12 = 15.60   Greece and Eurozone creditors reached a tentative agreement that might unlock about $95 billion in new aid to Greece in exchange for new tough concessions by the Athens government, which included reforms to the pension system, higher taxes, and privatization. However, the €85 billion-euro deal is not official until the Greek parliament on Wednesday passes the deal; and that might be a tough ask given the “no” vote in the recent referendum. Before we get to a Wednesday vote in Athens, there are several Eurozone finance ministers that will have to approve a €12 billion-euro package of short-term bridge financing, to allow the Greek banks to reopen. If the new deal is approved, the bank “holiday” could be lifted as soon as Thursday. And then after that, the Euro Union countries would have to sign off on a deal, unanimously. So, it’s a very complicated deal with considerable risk. Wall Street has never been good at reading the fine print, and stocks moved higher today on the idea that the never-ending negotiations over Greek debt might finally be ending, when in fact, they are just kicking into another gear.   And …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

No

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-06-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 46 = 17,683 SPX – 8 = 2068 NAS – 17 = 4991 10 YR YLD – .11 = 2.29% OIL – 4.40 = 52.53 GOLD + 4.10 = 1170.80 SILV + .06 = 15.85   Perhaps you have heard about the big vote in Greece over the weekend. Greeks voted to pay off all of their debt; they put the money in a big wooden horse. They left the horse on the doorstep of the European Central Bank in Brussels. Problem solved. Actually, Greeks voted ‘No’ in a referendum asking them to accept an international creditor proposal that would have included more austerity reforms. The final tally showed 61% voted “no”; so it was a bit of a landslide. Both the Greek people and their government want to remain within the euro, and it isn’t clear that there is a legal mechanism to kick Greece out of the Eurozone, at least not any time soon.  Of course a Greek exit might not be so bad. If you are an unemployed Greek worker, it really doesn’t matter if you are not being paid in euros or drachmas. Actually, the idea of printing their own currency, even if it is greatly devalued, is probably easier to swallow than the boot to the throat that is austerity. The question is whether the Greeks must leave the euro to have …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Reg A On

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-19-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 101 = 18,014 SPX – 11 = 2109 NAS – 15 = 5117 10 YR YLD – 08 = 2.27% OIL – .98 = 59.47 GOLD – 1.70 = 1201.30 SILV – .07 = 16.18   For the week, the Dow was up about 0.9% and the S&P 500 gained 1%. The Nasdaq jumped 1.4% as it hit new all-time highs yesterday.   Eurozone leaders will try to find a bailout deal for Greece at an emergency summit Monday.  News reports said a European Central Bank official warned Eurozone finance ministers that the Greek banks might not be able to open come Monday. The big risk now is that a report about the fear of a bank run will serve to spur a bank run. Greeks pulled more than €1-billion euro out of their banks today. European Central Bank policymakers have agreed to supply extra emergency cash to avert a bank run.   The Associated Press reports Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has traveled to Russia, likely looking for loans. Russia and Greece signed a deal today to build an extension of a prospective gas pipeline that would carry Russian gas to Europe through Turkey. Russia promised Greece hundreds of millions of dollars in transit payments yearly if it agreed to build the pipeline. Construction of the pipeline is expected to start next year and be completed …

READ MORE →
Author Interviews

Mark Blyth – Extended Interview

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/MARK_BLYTH_06-01-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 19:49 — 9.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSSinclair Noe audio interview with Mark Blyth, author of: “Austerity: the History of a Dangerous Idea”

READ MORE →
Author Interviews

Mark Blyth

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/MARK_BLYTH-SEG_2-03-10-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 7:10 — 3.3MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSListen to the audio interview with Mark Blyth and Sinclair Noe. For more information, click the banner. Austerity: The History of a Dangerous Idea

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Gulliver’s Travels

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-24-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 92 = 18,209 SPX + 5 = 2115 NAS + 7 = 4968 10 YR YLD – .07 = 1.99% OIL – .29 = 49.16 GOLD – .50 = 1202.30 SILV – .01 = 16.41   The Dow Industrials and the S&P 500 hit record high closes. The Nasdaq rose for the tenth straight session, its longest streak since July 2009. The Russell 2000 Index of small cap stocks closed at a record 1233.   Fed Chair Janet Yellen testified today before the Senate banking committee in her semi-annual report on monetary policy. Yellen said the Fed is preparing to consider interest rate hikes “on a meeting-by-meeting basis.” Yellen described how the Fed’s rate-setting policy committee will likely proceed in coming months: first by removing the word “patient” in describing its approach to rate hikes, then entering a phase in which rate hikes are possible at any meeting. That approach could open the door to an interest rate increase as early as June, but short-term rate futures contracts showed traders had shifted their expectations of an initial rate hike from September to October. And the yield on the ten year Treasury note slipped down below 2%. So, the markets players are placing their bets.   Yellen said she felt labor markets and other key economic indicators “have been increasing at a solid rate.” However, she said she still feels the …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

The Bar is Set Low

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-17-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 28 = 18,047 SPX + 3 = 2100 NAS + 5 = 4899 10 YR YLD + .12 = 2.14% OIL + .27 = 53.05 Another record high close for the S&P 500 index and the Russell 2000 index. As of February 11, 356 S&P 500 companies have reported and 71.3% beat earnings expectations. Total revenues are up +1.5% with 55.6% beating top-line estimates. Earnings growth with little or no revenue growth means companies are cutting costs or repurchasing shares to boost earnings. The Health Care and Telecom Services sectors were the best performers on the quarter. The energy sector was badly beaten down. The 12-month forward P/E currently sits around 16, putting it well above the 10-year average of 14; a little pricey but not excessive. Guidance has been disappointing but the game is to set the bar very low and then stop over it.   Eurozone officials and the new government in Greece have been playing hardball. Greece is running out of money. A report from JPMorgan shows Greek banks were losing deposits at the rate of €2 billion a week. The Greek government has so far insisted that budget cuts and economic overhauls mandated by the current €240 billion bailout are hurting its economy and society and that the currency union’s finance ministers haven’t offered sufficient leeway on implementing those measures. Yesterday, Eurozone ministers gave the …

READ MORE →