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Tuesday, May 07, 2013 – Good Times Roll

Good Times Roll by Sinclair Noe DOW + 87 = 15,056SPX + 8 = 1625NAS + 3 = 339610 YR YLD + .01 = 1.78%OIL – .64 = 95.52GOLD – 17.70 = 1453.60SILV – .08 = 24.06 The fun started in Asia as a weak yen sent Tokyo stocks to their highest level in almost five years while Australian shares closed lower after briefly erasing declines following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s to cut key interest rates. The yen has now lost one percent since Thursday; the result is a rally in the Nikkei, supported by upward revisions in earnings expectations for Japanese companies. Japan’s Nikkei 225 is up more than 50% in the past six months and overnight breached 14,000 for the first time since 2008. This is known as Abenomics, named after Shinzo Abe, the Japanese prime minister who has instituted a very aggressive form of monetary easing, much more aggressive than what the Federal Reserve is doing in the US; the plan will double Japan’s monetary base by the end of 2014. Later in the week, we’ll see if Abenomics is gaining traction as Japanese automakers report earnings; of course, it may still be too early to see Abenomics result in stronger earnings, but over time, a weaker yen should result in more car sales for the likes of Toyota and Honda. The world has done OK while Japan has stagnated. If Japan were to go back to something like a 3% growth rate, that would make …

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Tuesday, March 19, 2013 – First, They Came for the Bank Deposits

Mark your Calendar, April 5 & 6 and make your reservations for the 2013 Wealth Protection Conference in Tempe, AZ. For conference information visit www.buysilvernow.comor click hereor call 480-820-5877. This year’s conference features Roger Weigand, Nathan Liles, David Smith, Mark Liebovit, Arch Crawford, Ian McAvity, Bill Tatro, and I will speak on Friday. There is an expanded Q&A session with all speakers on Saturday. I hope you can attend. First, They Came for the Bank Deposits by Sinclair Noe DOW + 3 = 14,455SPX – 3 = 1548NAS – 8 = 322910 YR YLD – .05 = 1.91OIL – 1.72 = 92.39GOLD + 7.00 = 1613.80SILV + .01 = 29.01 The best quote I’ve seen on the Cyprus Bank Heist; and I wish I had thought of this; “First, they came for the bank deposits.” Actually, they are still in the planning and scheming stages of stealing bank deposits from the Cypriots; some say it’s really an attack on Russian mob money. And so one new scheme being floated is to only expropriate accounts above 100 thousand-euros. The Cyprus banks are still on holiday. We should note that at least half the Cyprus bank bailout capital needs come from the restructuring of Greek debt held by Cyprus banks that Cyprus government agreed to as part of ‘EU solidarity’. You remember the haircut on Greek bonds? You didn’t expect the bankers to really take a hit on that did you? No, eventually it worked its way back to the bank depositors, …

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Monday, February 04, 2013 – Brouhaha As Excuse

Brouhaha As Excuse by Sinclair Noe DOW – 129 = 13,880SPX – 17 = 1495NAS – 47 = 313110 YR YLD – .04 = 1.97%OIL – 1.61 = 96.16GOLD + 6.80 = 1675.40SILV – .08 = 31.86 With all the brouhaha over the fiscal cliff and the debt ceiling and the inauguration and the Super Blackout, it would be easy to forget the problems in Euro-land, but today, those problems have jumped back onto center stage, again. In Italy and Spain the prospects of stable government are slipping. First in Italy, an election is scheduled for later in the month. The technocrat-slash-PM Mario Monti will exit, stage right, and the race is on. The second and third place contenders are a comedian named Beppe Grillo and another comedian, Silvio “Bunga-Bunga” Berlusconi; it appears unlikely either will win, but they are looking like they can splinter the vote for front-runner Pier Luigi Bersani. The running theme of the campaigns is anti-austerity and anti-German authoritarianism. In Spain, the economy is contracting, again. Fourth quarter GDP shrank by 0.7%; the steepest decline in more than 3 years. Also, last week a new report showed unemployment at more than 26% in the fourth quarter. They are still calling it a recession but it is clearly a depression, and it is exacerbated by spending cuts and tax increases. Toss in a slush fund scandal involving the Prime Minister Rajoy, alleging kickbacks from construction firms; add in the Catalonian secessionist movement, and massive street protests. Italian …

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Monday, January 7, 2013 – I Went on Vacation and Not Much Changed

I Went on Vacation and Not Much Changed by Sinclair Noe DOW – 50 = 13,384SPX – 4 = 1461NAS – 2 = 309810 YR YLD -.01 = 1.90%OIL + .21 = 93.30GOLD – 9.90 = 1647.90SILV – .02 = 30.26 Forty years ago, Yale Hirsch at the Stock Traders Almanac, created the January Barometer. The idea was simple: as the S&P 500 goes in January, so goes the year. This market prediction tool has been correct 89% of the time since 1950, suffering only seven major setbacks. Since 1950, stocks have finished lower for the year only three times after posting gains in January. When the Dow is positive in January, then the rest of the year is positive 83% of the time, averaging additional gains of 9.59%. Compare that to the Dow’s performance when January is negative. In those years, the February-December returns are positive just half of the time, with an average gain of 2.04%. As with the full-year results, a positive January typically leads to a positive February. When the Dow closes higher in January, February goes on to average a return of 0.57%, and is positive 63% of the time. When January is negative, February is negative more than half the time, and averages a loss of more than 1%. However, an outsized return in January has not necessarily translated into a bigger return for February. If January is up more than 3.5%, the average February gain is not as big as if January is …

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Wednesday, October 24, 2012 – Do the Hustle

Do the Hustle by Sinclair Noe DOW – 25 = 13,077 SPX – 4 = 1408 NAS – 8 = 298110 YR YLD +.01 = 1.77%OIL – .43 = 88.30GOLD – 6.20 = 1702.50SILV + .06 = 31.83PLAT – 12.00 = 1566.00 Someday, we’ll get through a whole week without having to report on the never-ending string of bad behavior by the big banks. I thought this might be the week. There were other things in the news; the Presidential debate on Monday; the Federal Reserve FOMC meeting today. We even had a proxy for the bad banks; the giant insurance company AIG reached a settlement with 39 states for creating a death list, where they would stop paying on annuities when someone died but they wouldn’t look for beneficiaries of a life insurance policy. Then to top it off the CEO, Robert Benmosche, said he was indignant that nobody in the government had thanked him for paying back the bailout money that kept the company from total collapse 4 years ago. And over the past couple of weeks, Chase and Wells Fargo were sued for shoddy and virtually non-existent underwriting of mortgages that failed. Who was left? You might think the big bad banks would take the week off from the news cycle. Yes, someday, we’ll break the bonds of this gruesome litany of dirty deeds; someday this war will end. But not today. The latest federal lawsuit over alleged mortgage fraud paints an unflattering picture of a doomed …

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Friday, September 28, 2012 – Eat Cake

Eat Cake by Sinclair Noe DOW – 48 = 13,437SPX – 6 = 1440NAS – 20 = 311610 YR YLD un = 1.64%OIL + .25 = 92.10GOLD – 6.50 = 1772.10SILV – .17 = 34.59PLAT + 13.00 = 1669.00 There are bad things and they are bad. There are good things and they are good, even though the bad things are bad. Let me give you an example; You probably know I’m not a fan of the Federal Reserve. I believe there are better ways to conduct monetary policy. This does not mean the Fed’s monetary policy doesn’t work. You’ve heard the old adage, “don’t fight the Fed”. In case you haven’t noticed, the stock market has doubled in the past 3 1/2 years. That’s good, even though the bad things about the Fed remain bad. And the stock market has been performing much better than seems possible. As the third quarter comes to an end you might think about the problems in Europe and the slowdown in China; you might think about the slowdown in the US with the economy growing at an anemic 1.3% pace, the seemingly never ending housing recovery, the interminably high unemployment; and you might think of the looming fiscal cliff and the dysfunctional political bickering as corrosive elements sucking the life blood out of the economy; and you might think the best investment opportunities are in freeze dried foods and concrete bunkers – but no. The stock market has been sweet. The S&P 500 …

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Thursday, August 30, 2012 – While We Wait for Fed, Banks Behave Badly

While We Wait for Fed, Banks Behave Badly -by Sinclair Noe DOW – 106 = 13,000SPX – 11 = 1399NAS – 32 = 304810 YR YLD -.03 = 1.62%OIL – .67= 95.88GOLD – .80 = 1656.30SILV -.29 = 30.54PLAT – 11.00 = 1512.00 Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has returned to Jackson Hole Wyoming for the annual economic symposium.  Following the minutes of the most recent FOMC meeting, in which we learned the Fed felt compelled to take action unless the economy shows dramatic improvement, there has been general acknowledgment the Fed must certainly act sooner rather than later. Sooner being tomorrow or later being at the next FOMC meeting September 13th.  And although it is unlikely Bernanke will announce a major new program tomorrow, he must at least telegraph. Any new Fed actions are likely to have only a small effect on job creation. Among possible options, Bernanke might announce he’ll extend the Zero Interest Rate Policy to late 2014 or into 2015. He could move toward QE3, another round of bond purchases, most likely involving Treasury bonds and mortgage bonds. This would flood money into the economy and housing market, pushing record-low interest rates even lower. Both republicans and democrats have weighed in. Democrats say he should not be deterred from doing what’s needed to reduce unemployment; Republicans say new action should be avoided because of the risk of inflation. So we have a question of whether inflation or no job is the main culprit to eroding incomes.  …

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Monday, July 09, 2012 – Barclays Did Not Act Alone – Reaching Into the Upper Echelon

Barclays Did Not Act Alone – Reaching Into the Upper Echelon-by Sinclair NoeDOW – 36 = 12,736SPX – 2 = 1352NAS – 5 = 293110 YR YLD -.03 = 1.51OIL -.34 = 85.65GOLD + 4.90 = 1588.30SILV  + .24 = 27.44PLAT – 2.00 = 1449.00Alcoa kicked off the second quarter earnings reporting season. Alcoa has the ticker symbol AA and they are one of the 30 stocks in the Dow Industrials, so they start the earnings season based on alphabetical order and size and a little bit of tradition. Alcoa lost $2 million for the quarter. With an overhang of high inventories and a 20 percent drop in prices since March, many aluminum producers are losing money. Excluding items, also known as the cost of doing business, Alcoa earned $61 million from continuing operations, or 6 cents per share, which topped estimates of 5 cents per share. Later this week we’ll have earnings reports from some of the big banks, so it seems appropriate that Alcoa start earnings reporting season with some flashy accounting. Based upon this loss, they will probably get a tax refund. President Obama called on Congress to extend tax cuts for families earning less than $250,000 a year while allowing taxes to rise for households making more.Obama said: “Let’s not hold the vast majority of Americans and our economy hostage while we debate the merits of another tax cut for the wealthy.”Obama wants Congress to pass a one-year extension of the Bush-era tax cuts for households making …

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Thursday, June 21, 2012 – Like Crack for Bankers – by Sinclair Noe

DOW – 250 = 12,573SPX – 30 = 1325NAS – 71 = 285910 YR YLD – .02 = 1.62%OIL – 3.20 = 78.25GOLD – 41.60 = 1566.20SILV – 1.24 = 26.98PLAT – 19.00 = 1445.00Here is the bottom line on today’s declines; Wall Street has become addicted to free money from the Federal Reserve. Stimulus from the Fed is like crack for the Wall Street bankers. Yesterday, the Fed refused to pass out more free money. Today, Wall Street got a bad case of the shakes.One of the concerns when Bernanke and pals fail to act is that they can’t really think of anything they might do that would have any real effect, or maybe they’re satisfied with 2% inflation and 8.2% unemployment. So what if Bernanke doesn’t have any more ammo?Then we are left to the devices of fiscal policy, in other words; what can the politicians in Washington do to stimulate the economy? The most likely answer is that the politicians can drive the economy over a cliff. While that might seem cynical, it’s really just pragmatic. And then, of course there is the Lehman Brothers event with subtitles looming in Europe. If Europe collapses, the thinking is that Bernanke will find a few more bullets in the form of QE3, and he will once again toss money at the Wall Street bankers. The Wall Street crack whores will fire up their pipes and place “risk-on” trades with the certainty that the Fed will place a put against any …

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Tuesday, May 01, 2012 – The Return of Occupy Wall Street

DOW + 65 = 13, 279 SPX + 7 = 1405NAS + 4 = 305010 YR YLD +.04 = 1.96%OIL – .15 = 106.01GOLD – 2.10 = 1663.20SILV -.04 = 31.07PLAT + 3.00 = 1577.00 The Dow Industrials hit the highest point since December 2007. Later this week we’ll have reports on retail sales and the big monthly jobs report on Friday. Today, the ISM reported their manufacturing index rose to 54.8% last month from 53.4% in March. The results were much better than anticipated. We may have hit a top in the stock market: Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said U.S. stocks offer good value and are likely to rise as corporate earnings increase over time. “Stocks are very cheap,” Greenspan said today at the Bloomberg Washington Summit hosted by Bloomberg Link, citing “a very low price-earnings ratio. There is no place for earnings to grow except into stock prices,” I mean, when Greenspan speaks it must be a contrary indicator. Today is the one year anniversary of the killing of Osama bin Laden. President Obama is in Afghanistan, and he’ll deliver a speech a little later. Today is also May Day. Occupy Wall Street is back; trying to resurrect the movement with May Day marches, which gained momentum through the day. Protesters marched on banks, chanted anti-corporate slogans, and clashed with police in an opening day of sorts for the movement’s summer revival. In New York, hundreds of protesters gathered in Union Square. A crowd surged out …

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