Financial Review

Too Hot

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-20-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Why flights were canceled in PHX. Oil in bear market. Fed heads dovish, more or less. Account deficit grows. Ford to China. China to EEM. Tesla not at fault. Russia-Iran sanctions glitch. Barclays behaving badly. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 06-20-2017

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Financial Review

Call It Neutral

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-10-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Fed moves to sustainability mode. Earnings season sighted. Wells Fargo still too stupid after 113-page report. Libor audio tapes implicate the Bank of England. Barclays CEO targets whistleblower. Swift-Knight. AT&T pays for 5G. And Gorsuch makes 9. Toyota’s All-American car plant. Tesla tops GM. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 04-10-2017

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Financial Review

Immovable v. Unstoppable

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-04-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..FOMC minutes show Fed on track for 3 hikes. Mortgage apps slip. Obamacare first order of business. Auto sales record for 2016. Sears closing stores. Amazon the 800-pound gorilla of holiday shopping. Kohl’s, Macy sales dip. J&J halves hip award. Barclays trader pleads guilty to Forex rigging. US big banks on hook for Euro derivatives. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 01-04-2017

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Financial Review

The Wall

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-12-28-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Stocks hit the wall. Holiday spending figures. Pending home sales drop. Russian sanctions possible. Lloyd’s considers moving out of London. Barclays fights. Qualcomm fined. Kate Spade wants to sell Kate Spade. Fines for fake news. Can Amazon Echo testify against you? Minimum wage hikes coming soon. Americans spend more on health care than any other country. Expats increasing. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 12-28-2016

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Financial Review

How Low Can It Go?

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-05-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSUS Treasuries hit new lows. Pound at 30 year low. Factory orders and durable goods orders dip. Home prices – more of the same. UK RE funds freeze. Italian banks go sour. USA the oiliest. Juno goes Jovian. Google DeepMind wants to see your eyes. Three more Libor convictions. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 07-05-2016

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Financial Review

Pendulums Swing Wide

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-07-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 03-07-2016 DOW + 67 = 17,073 SPX + 1 = 2001 NAS – 8 = 4708 10 Y + .02 = 1.90% OIL + 1.99 = 37.91 GOLD + 7.90 = 1268.00   The U.S. stock market posted its third consecutive weekly gains last week, following an impressive jobs report on Friday. Stocks pulled out small gains today, for the fifth consecutive session. The S&P 500 has now gained in 11 out of 16 sessions since its Feb. 11 low, and closed last week above its 100-day moving average for first time in 2016.   The Federal Reserve FOMC meets next week to determine monetary policy and the battle lines are being drawn. Fed Governor Lael Brainard, who has emerged as a leader of the Fed’s dovish faction, argued for “patience” in raising interest rates. Fed Vice-Chair Stanley Fischer, who has consistently sounded more hawkish than many of his colleagues, warned that inflation is showing signs of accelerating; which would indicate his preference for raising rates. Adding to the mixed signals, the European Central Bank meets this week and is widely expected to expand its stimulus measures, which likely means they go more negative. The big questions being how big and in what form? And that would just make a Fed rate hike all the more awkward.   Negative rates have been spreading through important sectors of high …

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Financial Review

Bargain Bloodhounds

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-13-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-13-2015 DOW – 202 = 17,245 SPX – 22 = 2023 NAS – 77 = 4927 10 YR YLD – .04 = 2.28% OIL – .99 = 40.76 GOLD – 1.10 = 1084.90 SILV – .03 = 14.38   The S&P 500 moved into negative territory year to date, for the first time since Oct. 22. The Dow Industrial Average is also down year to date, moving below the 200-day MA, with a weekly loss of more than 650. Commodity prices are weighing heavily on the markets, following yesterday’s report showing crude oil stockpiles were 4 times higher than market expectations. Still, the IEA predicts that supplies outside OPEC will decline next year by the most since 1992 as low prices take their toll on the U.S. shale industry.  Meanwhile, the dollar index is trading just above 99. That would put it within striking distance of 100.40, its highest level in 12 years.   Retail sales rose a seasonally adjusted 0.1% last month. Sales were revised lower in September to show no gain. Sales were also flat in August. In October, sales were held down by lower spending at auto dealers, gas stations and grocery stores. Although the number of autos sold last month was quite strong, sales fell a seasonally adjusted 0.5%, perhaps suggesting heavier discounting. Stripping out gas and autos, U.S. retail sales rose a somewhat …

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Financial Review

Ongoing Criminal Enterprises

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-20-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair noe DOW – 26 = 18,285 SPX – 1 = 2125 NAS + 1 = 5071 10 YR YLD – .01 = 2.25% OIL + .77 = 58.76 GOLD + 1.80 = 1210.80 SILV un = 17.18   April 29 and 30 the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee met to determine monetary policy; today, they published the minutes of that meeting. There were no surprises. Policymakers have no plans to increase interest rate targets in June. We all knew that. Officials in April “had increased uncertainty regarding the economic outlook,” the minutes showed. They had no good reason to explain why consumer spending was so weak.  “Most” Fed officials think the dramatic slowdown in growth in the first quarter was transitory and that a moderate rebound would resume in the second quarter. Inflation was also expected to move higher.  The international context isn’t helpful to the US economy. Fed officials deem “foreign economic and financial developments” as constituting “potential downside risks,” and they specifically mention Greece and China. Moreover, despite its recent partial retracement, the dollar’s appreciation is “likely to continue to be a factor restraining US net exports and economic growth for a time.”   This suggests that they see a rate hike coming sometime later this year. Only a “few” on the U.S. central bank questioned whether the Fed was providing enough stimulus for the economy at the …

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Financial Review

Inmates Run the Asylum

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-15-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 20 = 18,272 SPX + 1 = 2122 NAS – 2 = 5048 10 YR YLD – .10 = 2.14% OIL – .01 = 59.87   The S&P 500 index hit a record high close for the second day in a row. The S&P added 0.3 percent this week for its first back-to-back weekly gain in more than a month. The Nasdaq posted a small gain for the week.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained about 0.4 percent for the week. The Dow is close to another record. The old record is 18,288 from March 2.   So, to see if this little rally has legs, we can look at the Dow Jones Transportation Index, because according to Dow Theory, if the industrials are performing, they have to ship their products to market, so the Dow Transports should confirm any move by the Industrials. We are not getting confirmation. Transports topped out in November, and then there were 4 failed attempts to break through the high of 9310. And since March, the Transports have been consolidating lower. Now this doesn’t mean that the Industrials can’t hit a new record on Monday; after all the index is within spitting distance of the old record; but if the rally has legs, we would need to see Transports exhibit some signs of life. When we see a divergence, the we …

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Financial Review

The Lights Are On

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-03-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 85 = 18,203 SPX – 9 = 2107 NAS – 28 = 4979 10 YR YLD + .04 = 2.12% OIL + 1.00 = 50.59 GOLD – 2.40 = 1204.50 SILV – .13 = 16.33   Just a few economic reports today.   Corelogic reports home prices jumped 1.1% in January to take the year-over-year gain to 5.7%. CoreLogic said 27 states and the District of Columbia are at or within 10% of their peak.   The Thomson Reuters/PayNet Small Business Lending Index fell to 120.9 from an upwardly revised December reading of 133.5.  Small businesses cut back on borrowing. Cold weather may be part of the reason.   Car companies reported February sales figures. Ford Motor sales dropped 2%. Ford was projected to report a 5.8% increase in sales but deliveries of F-Series pickups, Escape sport-utility vehicles and Fusion family cars all declined last month. General Motors sales rose 4.2 percent but they still fell short of estimates as sales of light trucks rose and sedans fell. Toyota, Fiat Chrysler, Honda and Nissan all reported deliveries that increased less than analysts had estimated. Industry-wide, the annualized selling rate, adjusted for seasonal trends, rose to 16.2 million cars and light trucks, from a 15.4 million pace a year earlier.   Chief executives of large U.S. companies see the economy accelerating modestly in 2015. According the Business Roundtable’s first-quarter …

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Financial Review

A Question for the New AG

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-10-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 139 = 17,868 SPX + 21 = 2068 NAS + 61 = 4787 10 YR YLD + .04 = 1.99% OIL – 2.10 = 50.76 GOLD – 5.00 = 1234.70 SILV – .06 = 17.01 Small-business sentiment slipped in January on a decline in optimism over sales growth and business conditions, according to a gauge released Tuesday. The National Federation of Independent Business said its small-business optimism index fell 2.5 points to 97.9, with seven out of 10 components declining.   Good news if you are looking for a job. The Labor Department said job openings surged to 5.03 million in December, the highest level since January 2001, from 4.85 million in November. Hiring jumped to a seven-year high and the number of job seekers for every open position, a key measure of labor market slack, fell to 1.73 in December, the lowest since 2007. The bad news is that there are still about 9 million people looking for a job.   Wholesale inventories barely rose in December, up just 0.1%. Together with data last week showing a 0.3% fall in manufacturing inventories in December, today’s report suggests the boost to GDP growth from restocking in the fourth quarter was probably not as large as initially thought.   Halliburton is cutting as many as 6,500 jobs. The oil company, facing up to the reality of crude oil prices, …

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Financial Review

HSBC – Too Big To Jail

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-09-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:18 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 95 = 17,729 SPX – 8 = 2046 NAS – 18 = 4726 10 YR YLD + .02 = 1.95% OIL + .90 = 52.59 GOLD + 5.40 = 1239.70 SILV + .28 = 17.07 Let’s start with oil; OPEC lowered its estimate for non-OPEC supply growth this year by about 400,000 barrels a day, the biggest reduction since the forecast was introduced in August. The US led with a cut of 130,000 barrels a day while estimates for Colombia, Canada and Yemen were also trimmed. The group said it may boost global demand forecasts beyond this month’s slight increase amid rising U.S. gasoline use.   OPEC’s research department said: “The main factors for the lower growth prediction in 2015 are price expectations, a declining number of active rigs in North America, a decrease in drilling permits in the US and a reduction in the 2015 spending plans of international oil companies.”   The United Steelworkers strike continues with walkouts at two of BP’s refineries over the weekend. The strike now encompasses more than 5,000 workers at 11 refineries across the country, which account for about 13% of U.S. fuel-making capacity. Facility owners also hit by the strike include Shell, Tesoro, Marathon Petroleum and LyondellBasell.   Cheap gasoline prices have increased 13 cents in the past two weeks to $2.20 a gallon, nationwide average; but not everybody is buying …

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Thursday, July 18, 2013 – Those FERCing Energy Traders

Those FERCing Energy Traders by Sinclair Noe DOW + 78 = 15,548SPX + 8 = 1689NAS + 1 = 361110 YR YLD + .04 = 2.53%OIL + 1.74 = 108.22GOLD + 8.40 = 1284.00SILV + .09 = 19.48 Record high closes for the the Dow & the S&P, along with record intra-day highs. I know you’re all wondering why we called this meeting; well, I’d like to report that the company is doing all right, we’re managing to scrape by; but we’d be doing a lot better if the staff in the home office would get off their lazy butts and get some work done for a change. Sounds a bit harsh, doesn’t it? Yet that is how Ben Bernanke started his testimony before the House of Representatives yesterday. Actually, what he said was: “The economic recovery has continued at a moderate pace in recent quarters despite the strong headwinds created by federal fiscal policy.” Bernanke has a point. Whatever motivation you assign to monetary policy, there are limits to the potential benefits, and those benefits are primarily limited to banks. Accommodative monetary policy is slow to flow to Main Street. Wall Street has been very happy with QE, as we discussed yesterday. The bankers and hedge funds, and the shadow banks feel the future is assured as long as the economy remains weak and the Fed continues cash infusions into the banking system, and therefore most investments will succeed. In that kind of environment, the income earning ability of an …

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Monday, May 06, 2013 – Wall Street Loves the Mushy Jobs Report

Wall Street Loves the Mushy Jobs Report by Sinclair Noe DOW – 5= 14968SPX + 3 = 1617NAS + 14 = 339210 YR YLD + .02 = 1.77%OIL + .18 = 95.79GOLD – .40 = 1471.30SILV – .09 = 24.14 Friday’s jobs report was great for Wall Street. The Dow Industrials briefly topped 15,000 and managed to close at a record high. The S&P 500 hits new records as well. The actual jobs report was only semi-good. The economy added 165,000 net new jobs in April. The February and March reports were revised higher. That’s certainly better than losing 700,000 jobs, but it wasn’t enough to get the economy up to cruising speed. Wall Street loved it; just enough job growth to avoid recession; not enough job growth to cause the Fed to exit QE to infinity. Wages are still basically flat. Since the financial collapse of 2008, 9.5 million Americans have simply left the workforce. Once you leave the workforce, you stop being counted, you become invisible. About 22 million Americans are unemployed or under-employed or working part-time because they can’t find full-time work. The Federal Reserve last week told us they are pretty well tapped out as far as their ability to fix things; they said: “fiscal policy is restraining economic growth.” A new report from the Brookings Institute puts numbers on fiscal policy. In the 46 months since the official end of the Great Recession, state, local and federal governments have cut about 500,000 jobs. In contrast, …

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Thursday, February 07, 2013 –

Waiting for the Apocalypse by Sinclair Noe DOW – 42 = 13,944SPX – 2 = 1509NAS – 3 = 316510 YR YLD -.02 = 1.95%OIL – .74 = 95.88GOLD – 6.30 = 1672.00SILV – .39 = 31.56 Some day this war will end. Some day we will have an apocalypse, not in the terrifying version of the word but in the original Greek definition of “apokalypsis”, meaning an “uncovering”, a “lifting of the veil”, or “the disclosure of something hidden”. One day we will wake up and realize that money is printed out of thin air and it is not a store of wealth but a vessel of debt; the veil will be lifted and we will see the debt masters for what they truly are. Until then we get little surprises in the form of troves of emails revealing the reality that the financial markets are not bastions of cool rationalism, nor are they temples to integrity; and the lubricant of commerce may be nothing more than a tar pit. We have been reading the emails from Barclays, UBS, and S&P describing how they would rig rates or rate deals for a cow if only they could get their cut. Sometimes the language is clipped in an instant messaging style of prose, sometimes it is profane in a way that would make Tony Soprano blush, and it seems to be flowing forth in a never-ending stream of culpability. Some day this war will end. But not today. Today we …

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Tuesday, February 05, 2013 – Cutting to Spite Ourselves

Cutting to Spite Ourselves by Sinclair Noe DOW + 99 = 13,979SPX + 15 = 1511NAS + 40 = 317110 YR YLD +.04 = 2.02%OIL + .47 = 96.64GOLD – 1.40 = 1674.00SILV +.06 = 31.92 The Congressional Budget Office released revised budget projections that show the federal deficit will drop to $845 billion this year, the first time during Obama’s presidency that the red ink would fall below $1 trillion. The budget office also said the economy will grow slowly in 2013. The reason for the slowdown is a tax increase in January and spending cuts coming in the next couple of months. A few minutes after the CBO report, President Obama spoke to the press and said those spending cuts would damage the economy and must be avoided. He asked Congress for a short-term deficit reduction package that will delay deeper cuts past the automatic start date of March 1, also known as the sequester. The automatic cuts are part of a 10-year, $1 trillion deficit reduction plan that was supposed to spur Congress and the administration to act on long-term fiscal policies that would stabilize the nation’s debt. Though Congress and the White House have agreed on about $2.6 trillion in cuts and higher taxes since the beginning of 2011, they have been unable to close the deal on their ultimate goal of reducing deficits by about $4 trillion over a decade. If the automatic cuts are allowed to kick in, they would reduce Pentagon spending by …

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Wednesday, December 19, 2012 – You Can’t Kill a Bank, Even With a Bushmaster

You Can’t Kill a Bank, Even With a Bushmaster by Sinclair Noe DOW – 98 = 13,251SPX – 10 = 1435NAS – 10 = 304410 YR YLD -.03 = 1.80%OIL + 1.49 = 89.42GOLD – 5.00 = 1666.90SILV – .66 = 31.08 All right, let’s start with a refresher course; Libor stands for the London Interbank Offered Rate. It’s the rate at which banks are able to borrow money from each other. The lower a bank’s rate (banks submit their own rates) the healthier it’s deemed to be. If you’re balance sheet is healthy, you get a low rate when you borrow. If your balance sheet is known to contain toxic assets, you have to pay a higher rate to borrow. The rates were especially indicative of banks’ health during the peak of the financial crisis when the markets were all but frozen and access to funds were limited. The Libor rate is determined daily; sixteen banks submit their rates to an agency; the four highest rates are wiped out and the four lowest rates are wiped out. The result is averaged and the daily Libor rate is published. It would take more than one bank to manipulate the rates. But once the rate is published it affects trillions of dollars of financial instruments around the globe. More than a dozen banks in the U.S. and Europe are under investigation for Libor rate rigging. Even though it is not really surprising, the sheer scope and audacity of the market manipulation …

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Monday, December 3, 2012 – Still in the Woods and Other Economic News

Still in the Woods and Other Economic News by Sinclair Noe DOW – 59 = 12,965SPX – 6 = 1409NAS – 8 = 300210 YR YLD + .02 = 1.63%OIL +.01 = 88.92GOLD + .80 = 1717.00SILV + .22 = 33.76 Let’s start with the economic news. Business among manufacturers contracted in November and fell to the lowest level in more than three years. The Institute for Supply Management’s index of purchasing managers dropped to 49.5% from 51.7% in October. Any reading below 50 indicates contraction in the manufacturing sector. The decline in the overall ISM index largely reflected a steep drop in new orders but companies remained active fulfilling prior orders. Only six of the 18 U.S. manufacturing industries surveyed by ISM said they expanded somewhat faster in November. Nearly twice as many said their industries contracted. In the euro zone, manufacturers contracted for the 16th straight month, according to Markit. China’s manufacturing sector expanded slightly. In a separate report, the Commerce Department said spending on construction projects advanced 1.4% in October to the highest level since September 2009. The big economic news will come on Friday with the monthly jobs report. The best guess is that the economy added about 75,000 jobs in November, but that is just a guess; Hurricane Sandy has distorted some of the economic numbers. The fourth quarter of 2012 has clearly gotten off to a slow start. Consumer spending, by far the biggest source of economic growth, fell in October for the first …

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Friday, November 2, 2012 – Jobs, Jobs, and More Jobs

Jobs, Jobs, and More Jobsby Sinclair Noe 11022012 Script DOW – 139 = 13,093SPX – 13 = 1414NAS – 37 = 298210 YR YLD +.01 = 1.73% OIL – 1.98 = 87.58GOLD – 38.10 = 1677.90SILV – 1.35 = 31.01 The big economic news of the day is the October jobs report. The Labor Department says the economy added 171,000 jobs last month, and they revised prior months to show even more job gains. The unemployment rate rose to 7.9%, as more people entered the labor pool. Some 578,000 people entered the labor force in September, according to the household survey, with 410,000 saying they found work. The discrepancy led to the slight uptick in the unemployment rate. The professional-services sector created 51,000 jobs, health care added 31,000, retail gained 36,000 and leisure and hospitality companies hired 28,000 workers, manufacturers added 13,000 jobs after shedding workers in the prior two months. Altogether, the private sector added 184,000 jobs, with government subtracting 13,000 from the final total. Any jump in jobs is good for housing. While overall construction added 17,000 jobs in September, residential-building construction employment fell by 2,000. Residential specialty contractor jobs increased by 6,700, which speaks to the real root of today’s housing recovery. All-cash investors are leading the gains; they buy distressed properties and then repair and remodel them to turn them into rentals. It’s no wonder remodelers are seeing greater gains than the home builders. Companies also hired more employees in September and August than previously estimated. …

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Monday, August 20, 2012 – Diminished Expectations

Diminished Expectations-by Sinclair Noe DOW – 3 = 13,271SPX -0.03 = 1418NAS -0.38 = 307610 YR YLD un = 1.81%OIL – .05 = 97.70GOLD + 5.40 = 1622.20SILV +.72 = 28.91PLAT + 12.00 = 1496.00 Apple already boasts the largest market value of any public company. Today it became the most highly valued public company ever. With an increase in its share price, Apple broke the record for the biggest market capitalization, $616.34 billion, set by Microsoft on Dec. 27, 1999. Of course, shortly thereafter, Y2K hit and destroyed modern civilization as we know it; or maybe it was because Apple invented the iPod and the iPhone and the iPad, and Microsoft gave us Zune. Who knows?  Apple’s stock closed at $665.15, giving it a market value of $623.52 billion. Microsoft’s 1999 market value is still far higher than Apple’s when adjusted for inflation. The Microsoft of late 1999 would be worth $850 billion in today’s dollars. To beat Microsoft’s inflation-adjusted market value, Apple needs to close at $910. The Microsoft of August 2012 is worth $257 billion. I’m not sure what it says about our economy, that Apple is the most valuable company ever, but I suspect it is problematic.  ECB President Mario Draghi is scheduled to speak at this year’s Jackson Hole symposium. A fellow named Ben Bernanke is already scheduled to speak at the symposium, and so there has been a little speculation that there might be some coordinated action that will be announced. I’m not sure …

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