Financial Review

Ten Years On

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-16-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 12:59 — 7.4MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…Industrial production up. Construction down. Consumer sentiment high. Jobs plentiful. Waiting on the Fed. Bracing for tariffs. Infrastructure hacks. AT&T-Time Warner court date. Wells Fargo, again. Anniversary of Bear Stearns collapse. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 03-16-2018

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Financial Review

Some Perspective on the Markets

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-12-16-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 111 = 17,068 SPX – 16 = 1972 NAS – 57 = 4547 10 YR YLD – .04 = 2.07% OIL – .58 = 55.33 GOLD + 1.50 = 1196.00 SILV – .47 = 15.82 Allow me to provide some perspective. On December 5th the S&P 500 index hit an intraday high of 2079 and a closing high of 2075. That was 7 trading session in the past, which may be a long time if you are trading on the minute bars, but in the grander scheme of things it was just a few days ago. The downturn has been fast and sharp, as downturns are want to be. This downturn has lopped about 90 points off the S&P, or about a 4.3%; which does not qualify as a correction and certainly not a crash, but it does catch your attention.

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Thursday, February 20, 2014 – Searching for Inflation

Searching for Inflationby Sinclair Noe DOW + 92 = 16,133SPX + 11 = 1839NAS + 29 = 426710 YR YLD + .02 = 2.75%OIL + .02 = 102.86GOLD + 12.10 = 1324.00SILV + .29 = 21.92 The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicators rose 0.3% in January following no change in December. Over the six months through January, the LEI rose 3.1%. The LEI tracks 10 indicators designed to signal business cycle peaks and troughs. In the most recent report, 5 of the 10 indicators were positive, including a drop in jobless claims and a pickup in factory orders; on the negative side, declines in building permits and hours worked. Meanwhile, the Conference Board’s index of coincident indicators, a gauge of current economic activity, rose 0.1 percent for a second month. Overall, the leading indicators point to moderate expansion once the nation gets past inclement weather, with the caveat that consumer demand needs to pick up. No surprises in that report. The Consumer Price Index rose 0.1% in January after a 0.2% gain in December. The CPI measures prices at the retail level. The core rate, excluding food and energy prices, also rose 0.1%. Over the past 12 months, consumer prices were up 1.5%, and the core CPI was up 1.6%. Energy costs increased 0.6% from a month earlier and were up 2.1% over the past 12 months. Food costs rose 0.1%. Gains in the cost of hotel rooms, medical care and rents were mostly offset by declining costs for new …

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Tuesday, November 12, 2013 – Supremely Happy

Supremely Happy by Sinclair Noe DOW – 32 = 15750SPX – 4 = 1767NAS + 0.13 = 391910 YR YLD + .02 = 2.77% OIL – 2.10 = 93.04GOLD – 15.70 = 1267.20SILV – .65 = 20.80 We’ve been hearing from Federal Reserve big wigs about their ideas for taper. Today, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart said he wants to see inflation accelerate toward the Fed’s 2% goal before the central bank reduces $85 billion in monthly bond purchases. Lockhart also wants to see economic growth pick up to around 3%. In a speech, Lockhart said: “To achieve a faster pace of growth, it’s my opinion that we’ll need to see” greater consumer spending and a decline in “fiscal drag.” Even though those targets for inflation and growth are a long way off, Lockhart says the taper, reducing bond purchases, “ought to be on the table at upcoming meetings” by the FOMC, including the December 17-18 meeting. There has been a common thread in mainstream economic forecasting lately. It goes like this: “Yes, 2013 has been rough. But growth should pick up in 2014.” The latest example is from the OECD, the organization of leading developed nations projecting that improvement just around the corner, as its index of leading indicators rose. The same story shows up in almost any mainstream forecasters’ estimates. For example, in their last official forecasts, top Federal Reserve economists concluded that 2013 US economic growth was on track to be only 2 to …

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Monday, October 21, 2013 – JPMorgan’s Deal

JPMorgan’s Deal by Sinclair Noe DOW – 7 = 15, 392SPX + 0.16 = 1744NAS + 5 = 392010 YR YLD + .02 = 2.61% OIL – 1.63 = 99.48GOLD – .80 = 1317.60SILV + .28 = 22.34 Apparently, over the weekend, JPMorgan Chase reached a $13 billion settlement with the Department of Justice and the New York Attorney General over the sale of mortgage backed securities back in the days of the housing bubble. We’re still waiting for details, but it looks like the tentative deal would resolve charges that JPMorgan misrepresented the quality of loans that had been packaged as mortgage backed securities, including mortgage backed securities packaged by Bear Stearns and Washington Mutual, the two failed institutions acquired by JPMorgan in 2008. And one of the unique features of this settlement is that it does not end a criminal investigation of the bank. Prosecutors did not want to end the criminal probe before they were sure of its findings. The investigation could take another several months. Ending the criminal probe was a long shot and the bank was not interested in holding up all the other settlements to wait for that. Civil cases require a lower burden of proof than criminal cases, and can often be wrapped up quicker than parallel criminal proceedings. In other words, they knew they could lose; so they took a deal. Now, $13 billion sounds like a lot of money, and it is for you or me, but not so much for …

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Thursday, July 18, 2013 – Those FERCing Energy Traders

Those FERCing Energy Traders by Sinclair Noe DOW + 78 = 15,548SPX + 8 = 1689NAS + 1 = 361110 YR YLD + .04 = 2.53%OIL + 1.74 = 108.22GOLD + 8.40 = 1284.00SILV + .09 = 19.48 Record high closes for the the Dow & the S&P, along with record intra-day highs. I know you’re all wondering why we called this meeting; well, I’d like to report that the company is doing all right, we’re managing to scrape by; but we’d be doing a lot better if the staff in the home office would get off their lazy butts and get some work done for a change. Sounds a bit harsh, doesn’t it? Yet that is how Ben Bernanke started his testimony before the House of Representatives yesterday. Actually, what he said was: “The economic recovery has continued at a moderate pace in recent quarters despite the strong headwinds created by federal fiscal policy.” Bernanke has a point. Whatever motivation you assign to monetary policy, there are limits to the potential benefits, and those benefits are primarily limited to banks. Accommodative monetary policy is slow to flow to Main Street. Wall Street has been very happy with QE, as we discussed yesterday. The bankers and hedge funds, and the shadow banks feel the future is assured as long as the economy remains weak and the Fed continues cash infusions into the banking system, and therefore most investments will succeed. In that kind of environment, the income earning ability of an …

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Monday, December 17, 2012 – Unconnected Dots

Unconnected Dots by Sinclair Noe DOW + 100 = 13,235SPX + 16 = 1430NAS + 39 = 301010 YR YLD +.05 = 1.76%OIL +.71 = 87.44GOLD + 1.90 = 1699.10SILV -.03 = 32.38 President Obama and House Speaker Boehner met at the White House today. Aides from both parties said they were optimistic that a deal could be reached in the coming days to avert the “fiscal cliff,” as lawmakers set the stage for action before a year-end deadline. A senior Republican aide said: “There’s been too much progress at this point and neither guy wants to go over the cliff.” Although both sides still had major differences, investors were cheered by signs of progress. Major market indices moved higher in the afternoon, and some of that was the feel good part of the news cycle; we certainly need some good news. Now, we sit back and see whether it was yet another rumor. Boehner, the speaker of the Republican-controlled House of Representatives, has edged closer to Obama’s demand to raise taxes on the wealthiest Americans. In return, Obama is considering a measure that would slow the rate of growth of Social Security retirement benefits by changing the way they are measured against inflation. Boehner has put forward a tax increase for those earning over $1 million annually, while Obama wants that threshold set at $250,000. Republicans could probably stomach a tax hike on incomes above $500,000. Boehner could float the broad outlines of a deal with rank-and-file members on …

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Thursday, November 8, 2012 – Tools in the Toolbox

Tools in the Toolbox by Sinclair Noe DOW – 121 = 12,811SPX – 17 = 1377NAS – 41 = 289510 YR YLD un = 1.63%OIL + .60 = 85.04GOLD + 14.60 = 1732.90SILV + .47 = 32.41 Yesterday I was a guest on Bill Tatro’s radio show: All About Money, 2PM Pacific and Mountain, right here on MoneyRadio. Most of the time Bill’s show is Bill, and it’s great; he’s always entertaining and informative and I don’t agree with everything he says but I think he does a great job of saying it; so I’m always a bit honored when he has me on as a guest. It’s a different situation for me, being the guest, but Bill is an excellent interviewer. One of the questions he asked was, paraphrasing: “What tools does the Federal Reserve still have in their toolbox?” I gave the basic answer that they didn’t seem to have many tools left. I thought it was time for fiscal stimulus to match the Fed’s already extraordinary use of monetary stimulus. But, as I said, this was a really good question and so I did a little more research, and today I’m going to talk with you about the tools left in the toolbox. First, whether you like the Fed or not, the Fed’s actions have had an impact on the economy and the economy has shown signs of recovery; I’m not sure what else to call it when you have 32 months of employment growth, the Dow …

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