Financial Review

Low Price Leader

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-14-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-14-2015 DOW – 157 = 16,924 SPX – 9 = 1994 NAS – 13 = 4782 10 YR YLD – .07 = 1.98% OIL – .37 = 46.29 GOLD + 15.40 = 1185.30 SILV + .22 = 16.22   Retail sales rose a seasonally adjusted 0.1% in September. Auto sales were strong, up 1.7% last month. Sales at gas stations were down 3.2% because gas prices were lower. Sales fell at Internet retailers, general stores, home centers, groceries and outlets that sell appliances and electronics. Sales rose at restaurants. Excluding autos and gas, sales were flat. Retail sales have risen 2.4% in the past 12 months, though the gain is a healthier 4.9% if gasoline is omitted.   The producer price index, which measures prices at the wholesale level, fell 0.5% last month. In September the wholesale price of gas sank almost 17%, marking the sharpest decline since January. That drove down the overall cost of goods by 1.2%. The cost of services also fell by 0.4% last month, the biggest decline since February. Core producer prices, excluding the volatile categories of food, energy and trade fell a smaller 0.3% in September. Over the past year, overall producer prices have fallen an unadjusted 1.1%.   Inventories at U.S. businesses were flat in August. Business sales fell 0.6% in August, the biggest drop since January. The inventory-to-sales ratio, an …

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Financial Review

Carry On

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-02-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:14 — 12.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-02-2015   DOW + 293 = 16351 SPX + 35 = 1948 NAS + 113 = 4749 10 YR YLD + .02 = 2.19% OIL + .59 = 46.00 GOLD – 6.10 = 1134.70 SILV + .08 = 14.80   For the first 8 ½ months of the year, stocks traded in a very tight range, for the most part. We had an occasional triple digit move on the Dow, but that was the exception – now it looks like the norm. Investors have weathered over two weeks of unusually wide-swinging trade that has left the S&P 500 with its worst monthly drop in three years and a loss of 8.5 percent from an all-time high in May. There really isn’t anything that would tell you today marks some kind of recovery, rather it is just volatility and turbulence. Get used to it. Keep calm and carry on.   World markets were a bit more sanguine today; the Shanghai Composite stabilized, but still closed just slightly lower. Nine Chinese brokerages pledged additional funds to purchase shares, answering fresh government calls to support equities. Investors may see the trend continue. Shanghai’s stock market will be closed Thursday and Friday as China commemorates the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II.   U.S. index provider MSCI has declared the market gyrations in China, and a barrage of interventions by the …

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Financial Review

Endless Possibilities

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-15-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 3 = 18,050 SPX – 1 = 2107 NAS – 5 = 5098 10 YR YLD – .05 = 2.35% OIL – 1.43 = 51.61 GOLD – 5.90 = 1149.90 SILV –  .28 = 15.19   I think the markets couldn’t quite figure out what to make of today.   In the late 1970s Sen. Hubert Humphrey and Rep. Augustus Hawkins sponsored legislation known as the Full Employment and Balanced Growth Act of 1978. The idea was to set monetary policy to try to achieve the goals of full employment, growth in production, price stability, and balance of trade and the budget. The Act also required the Federal Open Market Committee to report to Congress twice a year, in February and July; we used to call it the Humphrey-Hawkins testimony.   Testimony coincides with the publication of the Fed’s Beige Book, which was released today. The Beige Book cited improving consumer spending, mixed activity for transportation, positive reports on real estate, increasing lending activity, and “modest” wage pressures. The report did reveal trouble spots, such as the strengthening dollar, which led to soft growth around border areas, and the decline in oil and natural gas drilling.   The Humphrey-Hawkins Act expired about 10 years ago; perhaps because the goals of full employment, balanced budgets and balanced trade seem like Utopian pipedreams, but the Fed chair still heads …

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Financial Review

A Perfect Gift

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-03-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 64 = 18,076 SPX + 4 = 2114 NAS + 22 = 5099 10 YR YLD + .10 = 2.37% OIL – 1.68 = 59.58 GOLD – 7.70 = 1186.00 SILV – .27 = 16.58   The U.S. trade deficit narrowed in April on a drop in imports. The Commerce Department said the trade gap narrowed to $40 billion from March’s revised deficit of $50 billion. The 26 percent drop in the April trade deficit was the largest decrease since early 2009 and reflects a surge in imports in March following the end of a West Coast ports labor dispute.   Service industries expanded in May at the slowest pace in 13 months. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing index, which includes an array of industries from real estate to dining, declined to 55.7 from April’s 57.8. Readings above 50 signal expansion. Limited growth in orders reflects an American consumer who has been saving the extra cash from low gasoline prices and rising employment rather than spending it. Arts and entertainment, real-estate firms and rental companies led the list of the 15 non-manufacturing industries that reported growth in May. Mining, which includes oil extraction, contracted. An index of employment in service industries dropped to 55.3 in May from 56.7.   Payrolls processor ADP reports private employers added 201,000 jobs in May, the most since January. The ADP data …

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Financial Review

Slow to Patch

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-15-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 75 = 18,112 SPX + 10 = 2106 NAS + 33 = 5011 10 YR YLD un = 1.90% OIL + 2.67 = 55.96 GOLD + 9.60 = 1202.50 SILV + .18 = 16.41   The Federal Reserve reports industrial production dropped 0.6% in March. The biggest drop since August 2012. For the first quarter, industrial production was down at 1% annual rate, the first quarterly decline since the end of the recession.   The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo index of home builder confidence increased to 56 in April from 52 in March. Readings over 50 indicate that more builders see sales conditions as good rather than poor. All three components of the index improved in the month: sales expectations, buyer traffic, and the component gauging current sales conditions all moved higher.   China grew at its slowest pace last quarter since the global financial crisis in 2009; GDP expanded 7% in the three months to March from the year ago period, down from 7.3% the prior quarter. Retail sales and industrial output data broadly missed expectations, however, with the latter expanding at the slowest pace since 2008.   Japan overtook China as the top foreign holder of US government debt for the first time since the global financial crisis. Each country holds a little more than $1.22 trillion in US Treasuries, but Japan has about …

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Financial Review

Sparks Turn into Flames

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-05-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 38 = 18,135 SPX + 2 = 2101 NAS + 15 = 4982 10 YR YLD – .01 = 2.11% OIL – .59 = 50.94 GOLD SILV   Productivity in the fourth quarter fell at a revised 2.2% annual pace. The Labor Department originally estimated that productivity fell 1.8% in the final three months of 2014.   The number of people who applied for new unemployment benefits climbed by 7,000 to 320,000 for the week ended February 28. New applications for unemployment benefits are 1.5% below year-ago levels.   Of course the big economic news is tomorrow morning when we get the monthly jobs report. A month ago, the report showed the economy added 257,000 net new jobs in January. The estimate for February is 235,000 new jobs. It would be a bit of a surprise if the number is stronger than expected. Earlier in the week the ISM report showed employment was still expanding, but at a slower pace; they cited the West Coast port slowdown. Meanwhile, the rest of the country has experienced bad weather in February. Overall, the labor market looks to be improving, slowly.   Last month, Walmart made headlines by announcing it would be hiking wages for a significant chunk of its hourly workforce, boosting its minimum hourly rate to $10 by next year. What was behind the move? Yesterday’s Beige Book may provide a clue. The report says …

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Financial Review

Sometimes Brazenly

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-04-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:14 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 106 = 18,096 SPX – 9 = 2098 NAS – 12 = 4967 10 YR YLD un = 2.12% OIL + 1.26 = 51.78 Private-sector employment gains continued in February but at a slower pace than in the prior month. Automatic Data Processing Inc. reported Wednesday that employers added 212,000 jobs last month. On Friday, we’ll get the non-farm payroll report for February; it is expected the economy added about 235,000 jobs last month.   The Congressional Budget Office estimates the Treasury Department will exhaust its capacity to borrow in October or November if the debt limit isn’t raised. The debt limit is suspended until March 15. After that date, so-called extraordinary measures available to the Treasury to keep borrowing include deferring new investments in federal retirement and disability funds.   The U.S. Supreme Court is considering the fate of Obamacare for the second time in three years, weighing an attack on tax credits designed to help millions of people afford insurance. The Court heard arguments today in the case of King v. Burwell, an appeal by four Virginia residents who would block the subsidies in at least 34 states. The fight centers on a four-word phrase that has become a linchpin of the law. The measure says people qualify for tax credits when they buy insurance on an online marketplace “established by the state.” The challengers …

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Financial Review

Banks Under Assault

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-14-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 186 = 17,427 SPX – 11 = 2011 NAS – 22 = 4639 10 YR YLD – .05 = 1.84% OIL + .28 = 46.17 GOLD – 1.80 = 1230.10 SILV – .25 = 16.94 The roller coaster ride continues, with a 345 point swing in the Dow Industrials from the intraday high and low. A couple of economic reports set the stage this morning. First, retail sales in the US sank in December largely because of cheaper gasoline prices, but most stores posted surprisingly weak results during the busiest month of the shopping season. Sales at retailers dropped a seasonally adjusted 0.9% last month to mark the biggest decline in nearly a year. Excluding gas and car sales, retail sales fell 0.3%. It was the biggest decline for retail sales in 11 months. One month does not make a trend but this kind of puts a dent in the idea that consumers would save money at the gas station but spend elsewhere. Instead it looks like people are tightening purse strings, which is symptomatic of deleveraging and deflation; it might also be indicative of how much the economy has changed in terms of job stability, wage stagnation, and retirement prospects; all of which point to much greater pressures to save. The Federal Reserve then offered confirmation of a weak sales. The Fed’s Beige Book said most …

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Financial Review

More Jobs

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-12-03-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 33 = 17912 SPX + 7 =2074 NAS + 18 = 4774 10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.29% OIL + .49 = 67.37 GOLD + 11.60 = 1211.10 SILV – .04 = 16.52 Record high for the Dow Industrials and the S&P 500. About 2 weeks before the Federal Reserve FOMC meets to determine monetary policy they gather together reports from across the nation on how the economy is doing; the Fed then binds those reports in a Beige folder, or what we call the Beige Book. As the name would imply, the Beige Book is not always a page turner, but it can provide some useful information as well as an indicator of what the Fed policymakers are thinking, and then there is the occasional surprise nugget of information. The Beige Book was released today and it shows the US economy holding up well despite global slowing; economic activity continued to expand in October and November, with lower gasoline prices boosting consumer spending. Despite a sharp drop in crude oil prices, drilling activity in shale production districts remained steady; oil and gas exploration activity decreased in North Dakota and increased in Montana relative to a month earlier; production remained at record levels. Lower oil prices have some oil companies concerned and closely monitoring prices, which are close to many firms’ breakeven price. Employment gains were …

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Financial Review

Third World Stuff

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-15-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW – 173 = 16,141 SPX – 15 = 1862 NAS – 11 = 4215 10 YR YLD – .11 = 2.09% OIL – .13 = 81.71 GOLD + 8.90 = 1242.10 SILV + .05 = 17.55 Go back a mere 18 trading sessions and the market was at all-time highs. The Dow hit an intraday high of 17,350 and a closing high of 17,279, on September 19th; that was 18 trading sessions in the past. For the Nasdaq composite we have seen a 10% correction from recent highs. That means this drop happened fast, and it also means the bear may have more room to run; this move is not mature in terms of duration or magnitude. The major indices have dropped under the 200 day moving average; we were waiting for confirmation; we got it. The S&P looked to bounce off a different trendline. If you draw a straight line across the S&P lows beginning with the lows from 2011, which is where we saw support and a bounce today, at the 1820 level; it is also very close to the support levels from April at about 1815, which we talked about on Monday. That is an intermediate level of support, but it held today, and you have to respect the line, unless or until it breaks down. Once we hit certain levels, people start to feel the pain and …

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