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Tuesday, May 21, 2013 – Apple Gimmicks

Apple Gimmicks by Sinclair Noe DOW + 52 = 15,387SPX + 2 = 1669NAS + 5 = 350210 YR YLD – .02 = 1.94%OIL – .98 = 95.95GOLD – 18.10 = 1377.00SILV – .49 = 22.53 It’s Tuesday. The markets moved higher. It’s almost inevitable. The Dow Industrials have closed higher every Tuesday this year, with the exception of January 8th; 19 consecutive Tuesdays. No, I don’t know why. Well, today, part of the reason could be traced to the Federal Reserve. A couple of Fed heads were talking up easy money. New York Fed President William Dudley said he cannot be sure whether policymakers will next reduce or increase the amount of purchases, due to the “uncertain” economic outlook. The QE taper may end up being a QE expansion. Dudley worries about investor over-reaction to a “normalization” of policy and suggests the FOMC may need to update what it needs to see to move in that direction. Earlier, James Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, urged the European Central Bank to consider employing a US style quantitative easing program to counter slowing inflation and recession in the euro zone. Tomorrow, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will speak before a congressional panel, the Joint Economic Committee. The minutes of the Fed’s latest policy-setting meeting will be released on Wednesday afternoon. When the Fed showers liquidity, the money flows to the markets, but I can’t give a good reason for the Tuesday winning streak. There is a certain …

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Monday, March 11, 2013 – When to Hold Them

Mark your Calendar, April 5 & 6 and make your reservations for the 2013 Wealth Protection Conference in Tempe, AZ. For conference information visit www.buysilvernow.comor click hereor call 480-820-5877. When to Hold Them By Sinclair Noe DOW + 50 = 14,447SPX + 5 = 1556NAS + 8 = 325210 YR YLD + .01 = 2.06OIL + .11 = 92.06GOLD + 2.60 = 1582.80SILV – .01 = 29.09 So, the Dow industrial Average hit another high, the S&P 500 is within 10 points of a record high. Capitalism is doing well under this socialist regime. Let’s imagine you actually participated in this rebound. Let’s work on the idea that you have an automatic investment plan, such as a 401k or a SEP or an IRA, and you are invested. What now? Do you continue to invest? Do you rebalance? And the answer is yes, if that is part of your investment plan. The record highs do not change the plan. What if you got out and did not participate in the rally? Again, we go back to your plan. Why did you get out? Was it part of the plan? If you have a plan and you don’t follow it, that is like not having a plan. If you don’t have a plan and you’re wondering what to do; the first order of business is to get a plan. What if you have a bad plan? And if you have ever been stuck in a bad plan, you know what I’m …

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Wednesday, February 27, 2013 – It’s Ben’s World

I will be speaking at the 2013 Wealth Protection Conference in Tempe, AZ, April 5 & 6. For information please click here. This is an excellent conference. Hope to see you there. It’s Ben’s World by Sinclair Noe DOW + 175 = 14,075SPX + 19 = 1515NAS + 32 = 316210 YR YLD +.02 = 1.90%OIL + .22 = 92.85GOLD – 18.40 = 1597.30SILV – .45 = 29.08 Yesterday, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke deliver his semi-annual testimony before the Senate; today he talked to the House of Representatives, repeating testimony in which he defended the Fed’s policy of buying bonds to keep interest rates low in order to promote growth and bring down the unemployment rate. Woohoo! Ben is going to continue with QE to infinity and beyond. Wall Street loves free money. The markets moved higher. That pretty much covers it. The stock market tumbled a few days ago. Bernanke promised more free money and the market moved higher yesterday. And then today, Bernanke reiterated that the free money spigot is wide open, and the market moved higher again. That pretty much covers it. So, maybe we can play some music. Start happy hour a little early today if that’s your thing. I’m just saying that you need to keep it all in perspective. If you have friends, call them up and thank them for being friends. If you don’t have friends, go make some. If you are doing something productive, keep doing it. If your not doing …

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Monday, February 25, 2013 – Playing With Fire

I will be speaking at the 2013 Wealth Protection Conference April 5 & 6. Click here for more information or call 800-494-4149 Playing With Fire by Sinclair Noe DOW – 216 = 13,784SPX – 27 = 1487NAS – 45 = 311610 YR YLD – .07 = 1.90%OIL – .86 = 92.27GOLD + 12.30 = 1594.80SILV + .26 = 29.12 Let’s make sure you’re prepared for the week. Late Friday, Moody’s cut Britain’s sovereign credit rating by one notch to Aa1 from Triple-A, with a stable outlook. Moody’s cited the prospect of a further slow-down in the British economy, which would in turn undermine the government’s deficit reduction plans. The official word from the Bank of England is that the downgrade will not affect deficit reduction targets, but there are calls for stimulus spending, specifically infrastructure spending, where a one pound investment results in 3 pounds of economic growth. Alternatively, the risk is that too great a focus on deficit reduction could further squeeze the economy and domestic corporate revenues. This was a vote of no confidence in Britain’s austerity policies which have only served to worsen the economic outlook. The pound sterling dropped to $1.51 earlier in the morning, a two-and-a-half year low. UK sovereign debt actually strengthened in late trading. The Triple-A rating may be lost but it has not resulted in a surge in UK borrowing costs, at least not yet. It’s difficult to figure exactly how a lower credit rating effects a soverign nation which prints its …

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Subsidizing Bad Behavior by Sinclair Noe DOW + 18 = 13,507SPX – 1 = 1470NAS – 8 = 311710 YR YLD – .02 =1.86%OIL + .64 = 94.20GOLD + 5.10 = 1668.80SILV + .64 = 31.18 This morning, President Obama held the final news conference of his first term. The debt ceiling was a major topic. The President demanded lawmakers raise the nation’s $16.4 trillion federal debt limit quickly, warning that, “Social Security benefits and veterans’ checks will be delayed” if they don’t and cautioning Republicans not to insist on cuts to government spending in exchange. Republican congressional leaders repeated their demand that increases in borrowing authority must be accompanied by spending cuts. Obama, flat out rejected that, saying: “They will not collect a ransom in exchange for not crashing the economy. The full faith and credit of the United States of America is not a bargaining chip. And they better decide quickly because time is running short.” The president opened his news conference with a statement by saying that a vote to increase the debt limit “does not authorize more spending. It simply allows the country to pay for spending that Congress has already agreed to. These are bills we’ve already racked up and we need to pay them.” Obama said he was willing to consider future deficit cuts, but only if they are done independently from a vote to raise the $16.4 trillion debt limit. The debt limit must be raised to prevent a default, a series of …

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Thursday, December 13, 2012 – Federal Reserve Targets

Federal Reserve Targets by Sinclair Noe DOW – 74 = 13,170SPX – 9 = 1419NAS – 21 = 299210 YR YLD +.03 = 1.73%OIL – .67 = 86.10GOLD – 14.30 = 1697.30SILV – .91 = 32.64 What happens when the unemployment rate gets to 6.7%? Or when the inflation rate gets to about 2.4%%? Yesterday, the Federal Reserve announced it would keep interest rates at super-duper low levels and they would buy about $85 billion dollars a month in mortgage backed securities and Treasury bonds until the unemployment rate drops to 6.5% or until inflation kicks up to about 2.5%. So, what happens when the unemployment rate hits 6.7% or inflation hits 2.4%? The next question, and it is probably going to turn into an obsession for market traders trying to figure which target gets hit first, inflation or unemployment. Of course, that is working on the assumption that Fed policy will improve the jobs picture and that the Fed’s policy will result in inflation. Maybe. What we know with greater certainty is that the Fed’s policy is a boon for banks. They can offer loans and keep a very wide spread, also known as a profit. And the banks can be very particular about the quality or vintage of loan they make; which in turn keeps the spread high. The banks don’t really need to make mortgage loans to consumers;Ttey can get an even bigger spread on high interest credit card accounts; they can get an even higher interest …

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Wednesday, November 21, 2012 – Of Cliffs and Helicopters

Of Cliffs and Helicoptersby Sinclair Noe DOW + 48 = 12,836 SPX + 3 = 1391NAS + 9 = 292610 YR YLD +.03 = 1.69%OIL + .95 = 86.40GOLD + 1.10 = 1730.20SILV + .20 = 33.49 Israel and Hamas agreed to bring to an end more than a week of air strikes and missile attacks. A truce was declared; now we’ll see if it holds. The agreement aims to halt air strikes that have left more than 150 people dead in Gaza and rocket attacks that have killed five Israelis. Israel has hit more than 1,500 targets, and Palestinians launched more than 1,400 missiles. Secreatary of State Hillary Clinton said that she welcomed the accord and expressed hope it will “move us closer to a comprehensive peace.” “In the days ahead, the United States will work with partners across the region to consolidate this progress, improve conditions for the people of Gaza, and provide security for the people of Israel,” she said. The accord says that Israel shall stop all hostilities on the Gaza Strip, land, sea and air, including incursions and targeting of individuals. It also says that “all Palestinian factions shall stop all hostilities from the Gaza Strip against Israel, including rocket attacks and attacks along the border.” Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu thanked President Obama and Egyptian President Mohamed Mursi for their work to end the violence. There was tremendous US pressure on the Egyptians, who in turn pressured Hamas to accept terms which are not set …

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Thursday, November 8, 2012 – Tools in the Toolbox

Tools in the Toolbox by Sinclair Noe DOW – 121 = 12,811SPX – 17 = 1377NAS – 41 = 289510 YR YLD un = 1.63%OIL + .60 = 85.04GOLD + 14.60 = 1732.90SILV + .47 = 32.41 Yesterday I was a guest on Bill Tatro’s radio show: All About Money, 2PM Pacific and Mountain, right here on MoneyRadio. Most of the time Bill’s show is Bill, and it’s great; he’s always entertaining and informative and I don’t agree with everything he says but I think he does a great job of saying it; so I’m always a bit honored when he has me on as a guest. It’s a different situation for me, being the guest, but Bill is an excellent interviewer. One of the questions he asked was, paraphrasing: “What tools does the Federal Reserve still have in their toolbox?” I gave the basic answer that they didn’t seem to have many tools left. I thought it was time for fiscal stimulus to match the Fed’s already extraordinary use of monetary stimulus. But, as I said, this was a really good question and so I did a little more research, and today I’m going to talk with you about the tools left in the toolbox. First, whether you like the Fed or not, the Fed’s actions have had an impact on the economy and the economy has shown signs of recovery; I’m not sure what else to call it when you have 32 months of employment growth, the Dow …

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Thursday, September 13, 2012 – QE to Infinity and Beyond

QE to Infinity and Beyond -by Sinclair Noe DOW + 206 = 13,539SPX + 23 = 1459NAS + 41 = 315510 YR YLD -.01 = 1.76%OIL – .24 = 98.07GOLD + 35.80 = 1768.20 SILV + 1.37 = 34.78PLAT + 36.00 = 1690.00 I told you what I thought the Fed would do and today they did it. That doesn’t make me a genius, because the Fed has been telegraphing today’s action for about a month. The Federal Reserve wrapped up their Federal Open Market Committee meeting and announced a big new plan to stimulate the economy. The Fed said that it would expand its holdings of mortgage-backed securities and potentially take other steps to encourage borrowing and financial risk-taking. Perhaps more significant than those details was the basic change in its approach, for the first time pledging to act until the economy improves rather than creating programs with fixed endpoints; this is open ended quantitative easing; QE to infinity and beyond. In its measures, the Fed said it would add $23 billion of mortgage bonds to its portfolio by the end of September, a pace of $40 billion in purchases per month. It would then announce a new target at the end of this month, and every subsequent month, until the outlook for the labor market improves “substantially” and so long as inflation remains in check. The statement did not further explain either standard. The scale of the new QE is actually smaller than the Fed’s previous rounds of …

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Friday, September 7, 2012 – More Than You Want to Know About the Jobs Report

More Than You Want to Know About the Jobs Report By Sinclair Noe DOW + 14 = 13,306SPX + 5 = 1437NAS + 0.61 = 313610 YR YLD – .01 = 1.66%OIL +.89 = 96.42GOLD + 34.00 = 1736.30SILV + .97 = 33.78PLAT + 10.00 = 1597.00 The first Friday of each month the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports on nonfarm payrolls for the previous month. While that sounds rather mundane, the jobs report is a pretty big deal. The results attempt to measure some of the most vital data about the economy; who’s working and where and how much are they being paid; from this we can estimate how much people will or will not spend, the strength or weakness of businesses, the overall health of the economy. The fates of Presidents and political parties can hang on the results. The Federal Reserve will use the report to determine if they will turn on the printing press. This in turn affects the prices we pay for almost everything. So, it’s a pretty big deal. The economy added 96,000 jobs in August, far below the consensus of 125,000 to 150,000. In addition, July’s tally was revised down to 141,000 from 163,000. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 8.1% from 8.3% and the “real” unemployment rate (U6) fell to 14.7% from 15%, but the unemployment rate came down for the wrong reason; a sharp drop in the size of the labor force. The labor participation rate fell to 65.3%, its lowest …

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