Financial Review

Quiet, Almost Too Quiet

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-09-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSS…..Flat days the new norm. Glass-Steagall lives? ECB holds steady. Layoffs down. Jobless claims up. AZ loses jobs in Jan. Bill Gross on the Trump mirage and nitro on a bumpy road. 10-year note crosses 2.6%. No sale on paint. GE sells water works. Sears fading away. Flippers got legs. Happy and healthy cities. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 03-09-2017

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Financial Review

Uncertain

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-06-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSS…..Brexit will hurt. EU will keep Russian sanctions. Tech against immigration ban. Fiduciary rule and Dodd-Frank not really dead. When central banks stop buying bonds. JPMorgan on Chinese bonds. US adds oil rigs. Hudson’s Bay considers Macy’s. Earnings season rolls on: Tyson, Toyota, Hasbro. OK Google, turn off the commercial.   Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 02-06-2017

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Financial Review

Meet the Press

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1A-01-11-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 12:16 — 5.6MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSS…..Nasdaq record. Trump meets the press, markets genuflect, hilarity ensues, sort of. World Bank cuts global forecast. World Economic Forum puts climate change as top risk for 2017. Wells Fargo “Age of Discontent”. Bill Gross v. Jeff Gundlach; 2.6% v 3.0%; and the end of an era. Cars, airplanes and yieldcos. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 01-11-2017

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Financial Review

Pause

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-16-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSS…..Dow waits for assault on 19,000. PPI unchanged. Industrial production unchanged. Mortgage rates up. Fed ready to hike rates. Bill Gross isn’t buying the Trump Bump. Snapchat files to go public. Amazon goes after knockoffs. Twitter goes after trolls. EU will fine more banksters. SEC finally addresses Flash Crash. Ford still going to Mexico. Playstation Fiesta Bowl. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-16-2016

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Financial Review

Chugging Higher

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-03-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSISM services down but still growing. ADP jobs solid at 179k. Lockhart hints at hikes, blah, blah. Gross and Gundlach go all Chicken Little. Bank of England cuts tomorrow. Mortgage rates are low; nobody cares. Bitcoin heist. Wal-Mart buying Jet.com – poof. Time Warner encourages cord cutters. The Olympics have started. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-03-2016

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Financial Review

Anticipation of Consequences

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-08-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-08-2015 DOW + 138 = 17,050 SPX + 17 = 2013 NAS + 19 = 4810 10 YR YLD + .05 = 2.11% OIL + 1.86 = 49.67 GOLD – 6.80 – 1140.00 SILV – .39 = 15.77   This morning was full of anticipation: earnings season scheduled to kick off after the closing bell, the FOMC scheduled to release minutes from their September policy meeting, the House of Representatives scheduled to select a new Speaker of the House. Wisdom consists of the anticipation of consequences.   Earnings season is underway; the unofficial start is when Alcoa reports; ticker symbol AA, they lead the pack alphabetically, and then it just became tradition. The company reported adjusted third-quarter earnings of 7 cents a share on revenue of $5.57 billion. Analysts surveyed by FactSet had estimated earnings of 13 cents a share on revenue of $5.66 billion. Alcoa indicated that China’s industrial economy is slowing more rapidly than expected, as the aluminum producer slashed its production outlook for the country for cars, trucks and construction. And just like that, we have a trend.   Short interest has hit a peak. Short interest on companies listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) just hit a seven-year high, going back to the 2008 financial crisis. Short interest, or a bet that prices will drop, tends to increase as stocks are falling, and peak …

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Financial Review

Déjà vu All Over Again

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-23-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-23-2015   DOW – 50 = 16,279 SPX – 3 = 1938 NAS – 3 = 4752 10 YR YLD + .02 = 2.14% OIL – 1.67 = 44.69 GOLD + 5.70 = 1131.40 SILV + .03 = 14.89   Pope Francis visited the White House this morning. Speaking from the South Lawn before a crowd of about 15,000, the Pope said “climate change is a problem which can no longer be left to a future generation. When it comes to the care of our common home, we are living at a critical moment of history”; this was also a reference to his encyclical published in May, “Laudato Si – On Care for Our Common Home”, which addressed climate change. Francis has been a frequent critic of the damage caused to the world’s poor and the environment by capitalism’s excesses.   He also urged more attention be paid to the millions in poverty now overlooked by society, quoting Martin Luther King that “we have defaulted on a promissory note and now it is time to honor it.” Pope Francis said he will encourage Congress to guide the U.S. in fidelity to its founding principles including religious liberty. He referred briefly to the issue of immigration, and called on the U.S. to build a “truly tolerant and inclusive” society. Francis described himself as the son of an immigrant Italian family in …

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Financial Review

The World Continues

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-04-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 46 = 18,070 SPX + 6 = 2114 NAS + 11 = 5016 10 YR YLD + .02 = 2.13% OIL – .22 = 58.93 GOLD + 9.90 = 1188.80 SILV + .27 = 16.47   Orders for factory goods rose to 2.1% in March, a little less than expected. Orders for durable goods rose 4.4%; that’s for goods designed to last for three or more years. Orders for non-durable goods dropped 0.3%. But the big economic news this week will be the Friday Jobs Report. The Jobs Report for March came in at a very disappointing 126,000 jobs added; forecasters predict job creation in April will bounce back to somewhere between 225,000 to 245,000 new jobs, with the unemployment rate ticking down to 5.4%. We’ll also be watching the jobs report for any indication of wage inflation. The employment cost index was up 0.7% in the first quarter.   The government calculates that the typical household threshold for spending on housing and utilities is 30%. The AP reports that more than one in four renters spend more than half their income on housing and utility costs. This is a simple story of supply and demand. Housing supply is very tight. The rental vacancy rate has not been this low in 20 years. Tight supply and strong demand means higher prices. And as rental rates have moved higher, …

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Financial Review

Something is Rotten

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-12-12-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 315 = 17,280 SPX – 33 = 2002 NAS – 54 = 4653 10 YR YLD – .08 = 2.10% OIL – 2.52 = 57.43 GOLD – 5.60 = 1222.80 SILV – .06 = 17.14 The fall in oil prices has been dramatic, now down almost 47% since June. Nobody was expecting it would fall that far that fast. Goldman was forecasting $85 oil for 2015 as recently as October 29. Crude-oil futures fell to their lowest since May 2009 on Friday, briefly dropping below $57 a barrel, after the International Energy Agency delivered the latest reduction in forecasts for global oil demand. On the week, oil futures have lost slightly more than 12%. So, oil is a bit oversold right here but it is never a good idea to try to catch a falling knife. And the whole drop just tells us that something is rotten in the markets. The fundamentals of oil have not changed in concert with the price. We don’t have double the oil we had in June. So why is the price cut in half? I know that’s overly simplistic, but either the market is too negative on energy, or it is not diligent enough in thinking about broader implications. Low prices lead to oil being left in the ground. Low oil prices lead to debt defaults. Low oil prices can lead to …

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Financial Review

Mangled Expectations

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-03-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW – 24 = 17,366 SPX – 0.24 = 2017 NAS + 8 = 4638 10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.35% OIL – 2.03 = 78.39 GOLD – 7.60 = 1166.30 SILV – .03 = 16.25 No milk and cookies today, however the Dow and S&P hit intraday record highs. Construction spending fell 0.4% in September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $950 billion. Spending fell 0.6% for nonresidential projects and dropped 1.3% for public construction projects, but rose 0.4% for residential projects. The National Association of Realtors reports first-time buyers’ share of home sales has hit a 27 year low of just 33%; normally it would be closer to 40%. The final reading of Markit’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index was 55.9 in October, down from the flash reading of 56.2 and well below September’s 57.9. The Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing index jumped to 59% from 56.6% in the prior month; new orders, production, and the employment gauge all moved higher. Last week the Federal Reserve officially ended the Quantitative Easing plan, which has been around in various forms for about 5 years. The dollar reached multi-year highs against both the yen and euro; last week the Bank of Japan announced a surprise stimulus plan, called QQE2; on that news the stock markets hit a new high on Friday and global markets rallied. This week the European Central …

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