Financial Review

Black Cyber-ish

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-27-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS….Black November. New home sales at 10-year high. Congress looks to confirm Powell. Big vote this week on tax legislation. Who is in charge of CFPB? Meredith buys Time. Maryland assault weapons ban stands. Bitcoin gets bubbly.

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Financial Review

Debasement

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-24-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS….Dow hits another record high. Cat, 3M lead earnings parade. Blackrock downgrades US credit. Tax plan soon, maybe. Corker and Flake speak up. Jobs of the future. Happy online holidays. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-24-2017

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Financial Review

Thin Air

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-28-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Black Friday sales dip, except guns. Cyber Monday should be big. OPEC meets Wednesday. Singapore for entrepreneurs. Samsung split? Time for sale? Wells Fargo fights because there is a clause calling for mediation on the bogus accounts they fraudulently opened. Hack the Muni. You did not win the Powerball, so we look at the good news and the bad news in the stock market. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-28-2016

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Financial Review

A Busy Economic Calendar

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-30-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-30-2015 DOW – 78 = 17,719 SPX – 9 = 2080 NAS – 18 = 5108 10 YR YLD – .01 = 2.22% OIL + .02 = 41.73 GOLD + 7.90 = 1065.50 SILV – .01 = 14.16   For the month, the Dow was up 0.3%, S&P 500 gained 0.1% and the Nasdaq gained 1.1%. The yuan rallied after the IMF said it will be added to its basket of reserve currencies. The euro capped its worst month versus the dollar since March. The yield gap between German and American bonds widened to the most in nine years, while emerging-market stocks posted their biggest monthly slump since August. This week’s economic calendar is packed. Today the National Association of Realtors reported pending home sales rose 0.2% in October and its index of contract signings is up 3.9% compared to a year ago. NAR’s chief economist, Lawrence Yun, said supply isn’t keeping up with strong demand. You know the old supply-demand formula, and tight supply points to higher prices.   Data due tomorrow includes US auto sales, ISM Manufacturing, PMI manufacturing, and construction spending. Look for auto sales to come in at an annualized rate of 18.0 million units, with a particular emphasis on VW sales following the emissions cheating scandal. The Markit PMI is expected to drop slightly from 54.1 in October to about 52.5 in November. The ISM manufacturing …

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Financial Review

Show Me the Data

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-12-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-12-2015 DOW – 254 = 17,448 SPX – 29 = 2045 NAS – 61 = 5005 10 YR YLD – .02 = 2.32% OIL – 1.28 = 41.65 GOLD – 1.70 = 1085.50 SILV – .11 = 14.34   Crude oil fell below $42 a barrel, its lowest price since August, while copper, gold and silver reached six-year lows. Energy, mining and metals companies fell. Caterpillar, Exxon Mobil and Chevron had the biggest losses in the Dow Jones Industrial average. The Dow and the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index are now negative for the year.   The Energy Information Administration just released its latest weekly look at the US oil market, and it shows that US crude stockpiles are just 3 million barrels off the record 490 million barrel record in April.  Crude stockpiles grew by 4.2 million barrels last week. A private report released Wednesday had shown an even larger increase. The biggest factors have been a slowdown in demand, and China’s slowdown is a big part of that equation. Meanwhile, oil producers just keep pumping; US shale production has slowed and will likely slow more, even though it remains stubbornly high; OPEC refuses to cut production and the more oil prices fall, the faster they pump.   Prices for copper and other commodities were slumping as investors anticipated that the dollar would become even stronger. The price …

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Financial Review

Barn Cleaning

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-27-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-27-2015 DOW – 41 = 17,581 SPX – 5 = 2065 NAS – 4 = 5030 10 YR YLD – .03 = 2.03% OIL – .78 = 43.20 GOLD + 4.10 = 1168.00 SILV + .03 = 15.97   Congressional leaders have reached a tentative budget deal with the White House in a breakthrough that would set government funding levels for the next two years and extend the nation’s debt limit through 2017. The bill would raise the spending caps set in place in 2011 that would result in deep cuts to both defense and non-defense spending, called sequestration.  This deal would provide $80 billion in sequester relief.   The bipartisan agreement would include long-term entitlement reforms to the Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) program, the first major reform to Social Security since 1983.  The Social Security Disability Insurance program would be amended, in part to tighten and standardize eligibility requirements that now vary by state. That change was projected to save the government $5 billion. It also prevents a spike in Medicare B premiums for millions of seniors. The increases would have been caused by the rare absence of a cost-of-living increase in Social Security benefits, because of unusually low inflation.   The deal still needs Congressional approval, but for outgoing House Speaker John Boehner this was a matter of wrapping up unfinished business before his departure, …

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Monday, December 02, 2012 – The Home Stretch

The Home Stretch By Sinclair Noe DOW – 77 = 16,008SPX – 4 = 1800NAS – 14 = 404510 YR YLD + .05 = 2.79%OIL + 1.19 = 93.91GOLD – 32.80 = 1220.30SILV – .73 = 19.31 Stocks were down today. There are many possible explanations, but the one that makes sense to me is that we just couldn’t have a record high celebration with milk and cookies; not after all the pie I ate over the holiday. There are other explanations as well. Anyway, we survived Black Friday, mainly by sitting it out. Black Friday comes with its own unofficial economic data point as the most important shopping day of the year. And we always hear the erroneous, or at least mildly misleading caveat that consumer spending accounts for nearly 70% of gross domestic product, making this large shopping day extra important. Thanksgiving and Black Friday combined brought in an estimated $12.3 billion in sales, according to shopping analytics firm ShopperTrak. Thanksgiving Day traffic grew 27% as nearly one-third of shoppers headed to stores on the holiday. About 97 million people planned to shop online or in stores on Friday, with about 140 million intending to do so Thanksgiving through Sunday. That’s down from 147 million last year. Overall spending was expected to reach $57.4 billion for the weekend, that’s down from $59.1 billion last year. Thanksgiving and Black Friday fell a week later in the season this year, leading stores to push pre-Black Friday deals and shifting consumer …

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Monday, November 25, 2013 – A Record High, Barely

A Record High, Barely by Sinclair Noe DOW + 7 = 16,072SPX – 2 = 1802NAS + 2 = 399410 YR YLD – .01 = 2.73%OIL – .75 = 94.09GOLD + 7.90 = 1252.60SILV + .38 = 20.31 The Dow and the S&P 500 indices have posted 7 weeks of gains. Today was flat, with the Dow up a few points and the S&P down a little. We’ll have a holiday shortened week, with the market closed on Thursday (something retailers should consider). Over the weekend, the big news was a nuclear agreement, of sorts between the US and Iran. The basic idea of the agreement is that we would lift some sanctions against Iran and they would not expand their nuclear program. The deal frees up some Iranian oil revenue that had been frozen in foreign banks. It’s unlikely Iran will add much in oil exports in the six months covered by the agreement. Iran has been exporting oil to China, India, South Korea, and Japan; those countries were granted waivers on sanctions because they really wanted the oil. The main benefit of the weekend’s deal with Iran may be the psychological impact on the market, which has long been propped up by fears of a supply disruption resulting from the standoff between Iran and the United States and its allies. Also, Iran may benefit from access to investment in oil infrastructure and equipment; but again, this is a 6 month deal for now. Many Middle Eastern countries have …

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Tuesday, November 12, 2013 – Supremely Happy

Supremely Happy by Sinclair Noe DOW – 32 = 15750SPX – 4 = 1767NAS + 0.13 = 391910 YR YLD + .02 = 2.77% OIL – 2.10 = 93.04GOLD – 15.70 = 1267.20SILV – .65 = 20.80 We’ve been hearing from Federal Reserve big wigs about their ideas for taper. Today, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart said he wants to see inflation accelerate toward the Fed’s 2% goal before the central bank reduces $85 billion in monthly bond purchases. Lockhart also wants to see economic growth pick up to around 3%. In a speech, Lockhart said: “To achieve a faster pace of growth, it’s my opinion that we’ll need to see” greater consumer spending and a decline in “fiscal drag.” Even though those targets for inflation and growth are a long way off, Lockhart says the taper, reducing bond purchases, “ought to be on the table at upcoming meetings” by the FOMC, including the December 17-18 meeting. There has been a common thread in mainstream economic forecasting lately. It goes like this: “Yes, 2013 has been rough. But growth should pick up in 2014.” The latest example is from the OECD, the organization of leading developed nations projecting that improvement just around the corner, as its index of leading indicators rose. The same story shows up in almost any mainstream forecasters’ estimates. For example, in their last official forecasts, top Federal Reserve economists concluded that 2013 US economic growth was on track to be only 2 to …

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Friday, November 01, 2013 – Halloween, Christmas and Banksters

Everyday is Christmas by Sinclair Noe DOW + 69 = 15,615SPX + 5 = 1761NAS + 2 = 392210 YR YLD + .08 = 2.62%OIL – 1.78 = 94.60 GOLD – 6.90 = 1316.80SILV – .04 = 21.97 I hope you enjoyed Halloween, maybe you got to hand out some candy to the little kids. And what wasn’t handed out, well I hope it’s digested, because this this might make you queasy. Merry Christmas, Happy Hannukah, etc., etc. Today is Black Friday. Retailers facing the shortest holiday season in years are preparing to assail customers with deals and promotions as of right now. Wal-Mart is kicking off its online deals today, a month earlier than usual, underscoring worries that intense discounting aimed at luring budget-conscious shoppers could result in the most tepid holiday spending rise in four years. Retailers have traditionally kicked off the all-important holiday shopping season on or the day after Thanksgiving and saved some of their best online deals for “Cyber Monday,” the Monday after Thanksgiving when workers return to offices and use computers to make holiday purchases. This year, the holiday falls on Nov. 28 and as a result there are six fewer shopping days between Thanksgiving and Christmas, prompting many retailers to jump the gun on incentives. So, if you want a 42-inch JVC LED TV for just $299, or a Xelio 10-inch tablet for just $49, with free shipping, today is your day, because all you are in the eyes of corporate America is …

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