Financial Review

War, Inversions, and Climate

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-23-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW – 116 = 17,055 SPX – 11 = 1982 NA – 19 = 4508 10 YR YLD – .03 = 2.53% OIL + .06 = 91.62 GOLD + 8.10 = 1223.90 SILV + .05 = 17.88 First up: war. You’ve probably heard by now that the US launched several airstrikes against ISIS targets inside Syria and, separately, in potentially averting an imminent threat to the homeland from an al Qaeda group called Khorasan. Many of the targets were in and around Raqqa, Syria, believed to be an ISIS stronghold. Several Arab nations took part in the US-led operation: Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. A spokesman for the Pentagon said they are still assessing the effectiveness of the bombing campaign but the Pentagon believes they were “successful in hitting what we were aiming at.” The airstrikes against Khorasan was in response to threats, however officials so far have provided no details about the terrorists’ planned attack or the credibility of the intelligence they had on it. A Pentagon spokesman said “the individuals plotting and planning it were eliminated.” The Syrian government says the US told it of plans to carry out airstrikes. The State Department immediately denied that it gave prior notification. Reuters reports Iranian officials were informed of the airstrikes in advance, but not specific targets. Meanwhile, the Israeli military said that it had shot down …

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Financial Review

We Have Met the Enemy

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_09-11-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW – 19 = 17,049 SPX + 1 = 1997 NAS + 5 = 4591 10 YR YLD – .01 = 2.53% OIL + 1.38 = 93.05 GOLD – 8.80 = 1241.20 SILV – .27 = 18.77 I’m fairly certain that at some point during this day you have taken at least a moment to recall where you were 13 years ago, how you heard the news, how you responded to the news. Maybe you can recollect specifics or maybe some of the memories have faded in time. What you knew exactly 13 years ago is probably quite different than what you know today. Last night I watched the president announce another war; this one will be different than the last one; so we are told. The plan is to expand the airstrikes against ISIS and take the fight to their base in Syria. It is no longer just about protecting American embassies and limited humanitarian efforts. The new plan is open-ended, and will likely be long-term. We won’t have combat troops on the ground, but we will have troops in Iraq; about 1600 US troops; I’m fairly certain they are capable of combat if pushed. Boots on the ground combat will come from Iraqi forces and Syrian rebels, apparently. House Speaker John Boehner says the country should unite behind the administration, even if we don’t know all the details of the …

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Financial Review

A Few Old Sayings

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-26-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS08262014 DOW + 29 = 17,106 SPX + 2 = 2000.02 (record) NAS + 13 = 4570 10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.40% OIL + .55 = 93.90 GOLD – .70 = 1280.90 SILV – .08 = 19.38 The S&P 500 notched its 30th record of the year and closed above 2000 for the first time ever. The Dow also rose but fell short of its record closing high after setting an all-time intraday high earlier in the session. There are a few old sayings about the market that seem to fit. The first is, “the trend is you friend”; we have seen a few minor pullbacks since the bottom in 2009, but since the start of 2013 there has been a strong and steady uptrend. “A trend in place is more likely to continue than it is to reverse, until it reverses” and today marked a continuation of the trend, not a reversal. Why is the market going up? Who knows? There are plenty of problems around the world. The US economy looks sluggish, but “stocks climb a wall of worry to march into bullish territory”; that’s a phrase that’s been thrown around for more than 60 years, but was made popular by Joe Granville in the 1980s. Another financial proverb claims “Worry is interest paid on trouble before it falls due.” And the opposite of the “wall of worry” is “Bear …

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Financial Review

Tax Weasels

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-25-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS08252014 Tax Weasels by Sinclair Noe LISTEN HERE DOW + 75 = 17,076 SPX + 9 = 1997.92 (record) NAS + 18 = 4557 10 YR YLD – .02 = 2.38% OIL – .27 = 93.38 GOLD – 4.60 = 1277.20 SILV – .05 = 19.45 The S&P 500 crossed above 2000 intraday, closing off the high for the day, but still closing in record territory. We recognize it but we don’t have a big celebration. It’s just a number, a nice big round number. For reference, the S&P 500 topped 1,000 back in February 1998. Economic data today includes: Sales of new single family homes dropped for a second month in June. New home sales slipped 2.4%, but data from the past 3 months was revised to show 33,000 more new homes were sold than previously reported. The median sales price increased 2.9% from a year ago. At July’s sales pace it would take 6.0 months to clear the supply of houses on the market, the highest since October 2011. Tomorrow, we’ll see the latest data on existing home sales from S&P/Case-Shiller. Separately, financial data firm Markit said its preliminary services Purchasing Managers Index dipped to 58.5 this month from 60.8 in July.A reading above 50 indicates expansion. Last Friday ECB President Mario Draghi delivered the luncheon speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium; Draghi said the ECB had done all it could for …

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