Financial Review

Dead Cat Bounce

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-28-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSStocks bounce. Brexit will be a nasty divorce. UK credit cut. Eurobank fallout starts in Italy. US GDP revised higher. House prices higher. Save $20 billion at the pump. VW must pay. Sheraton in Cuba. Google antitrust. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 06-28-2016

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Spend More, Buy the Same

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-31-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSS  Consumers spending more but not getting more; confidence wavers. 1Q earnings reporting season closes with another decline. Fed considers a hike. Brits consider a Brexit. A strike finally works. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 05-31-2016

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Waiting on the FOMC

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-26-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSMarkets calm ahead of FOMC decision. Apple chopped. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 04-26-2016

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Thus Spake Yellen

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-29-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSYellen speech is dovish. Risk on.

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Laissez les Bons Temps Rouler

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-26-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 01-26-2016 DOW + 282 = 16,167 SPX + 26 = 1903 NAS + 49 = 4567 10 Y – .03 = 1.99% OIL + .11 = 30.45 GOLD + 11.80 = 1120.70   The Federal Reserve had always planned to pause after raising interest rates in December, but the question now is how long that break will last. Initial expectations were that the FOMC would raise rates again this March, but a downturn in the equity markets, a stronger dollar and weak inflation have led some to predict that another move may be months away. Investors may get some more insight as Fed officials gather today for a two-day session, their first policy-making meeting of 2016. For now, the Fed can simply say that they are data dependent and the 25 basis point increase in December has not had an effect on the economy. They might say that everything is basically good in the economy and the markets, if they get any mention at all, are just not looking at the right data.   In a recent speech, Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley summed up the situation: “In terms of the economic outlook, the situation does not appear to have changed much since the last [Federal Open Market Committee] meeting. Some recent activity indicators have been on the softer side, pointing to a relatively weak fourth quarter for …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Turkey Shoots

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-24-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-24-2015 DOW + 19 = 17,812 SPX + 2 = 2089 NAS + 0.33 = 5102 10 YR YLD – .01 = 2.24% OIL + .89 = 42.64 GOLD + 6.70 = 1076.40 SILV + .05 = 14.30   The US economy expanded at a faster pace in the third quarter than previously reported. Gross domestic product rose at a 2.1% annualized rate, up from an initial estimate of 1.5%. Nearly all of the improvement was because of revised data on inventories, which showed businesses restocking shelves at a faster pace than the government first estimated. Still, company stockpiles remained elevated compared with sales, indicating that new orders and production will cool further to clear shelves and warehouses heading into 2016. Inventories grew at a $90 billion annualized rate from July through September, almost twice as much as previously estimated, but down from the second quarter.   The improvement in inventory levels was offset by a slight downward revision in consumer spending last quarter. Cheap gasoline is giving households a little extra money, and consumers are spending, just not quite as fast; consumer spending was revised down to 3% from 3.2% in the initial estimate for the third quarter. Consumption during the current fourth quarter, including the holiday shopping season, is expected to increase at an annualized rate of about 3%.   For all of 2015, the rate of economic …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Barn Cleaning

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-27-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-27-2015 DOW – 41 = 17,581 SPX – 5 = 2065 NAS – 4 = 5030 10 YR YLD – .03 = 2.03% OIL – .78 = 43.20 GOLD + 4.10 = 1168.00 SILV + .03 = 15.97   Congressional leaders have reached a tentative budget deal with the White House in a breakthrough that would set government funding levels for the next two years and extend the nation’s debt limit through 2017. The bill would raise the spending caps set in place in 2011 that would result in deep cuts to both defense and non-defense spending, called sequestration.  This deal would provide $80 billion in sequester relief.   The bipartisan agreement would include long-term entitlement reforms to the Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) program, the first major reform to Social Security since 1983.  The Social Security Disability Insurance program would be amended, in part to tighten and standardize eligibility requirements that now vary by state. That change was projected to save the government $5 billion. It also prevents a spike in Medicare B premiums for millions of seniors. The increases would have been caused by the rare absence of a cost-of-living increase in Social Security benefits, because of unusually low inflation.   The deal still needs Congressional approval, but for outgoing House Speaker John Boehner this was a matter of wrapping up unfinished business before his departure, or …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Defeat Devices

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-29-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-29-2015   DOW + 47 = 16,049 SPX + 2 = 1884 NAS – 26 = 4517 10 YR YLD – .04 = 2.09% OIL + .80 = 45.23 GOLD – 4.40 = 1128.70 SILV + .04 = 14.74   Single-family home prices rose in July, matching the pace of price gains in June but falling just short of expectations. The S&P/Case Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas in July gained 5 percent year over year. San Francisco, Denver and Dallas experienced the highest year-over-year home appreciation among the 20 cities with price increases of 10.4 percent, 10.3 percent and 8.7 percent, respectively. The worst performing cities on the list include Detroit, and the only surprise is that Chicago was even worse than Detroit. The Sunbelt cities – Miami, Tampa, Phoenix and Las Vegas – which were the poster children of the housing boom have yet to make new all-time highs. Phoenix home prices were up 0.7% in July, and up 4.6% year over year.   The Conference Board said its index of consumer attitudes rose to 103.0, the highest since January, from a downwardly revised 101.3 the month before. The present situation index, a measure of current conditions, also climbed to an eight-year high of 121.1 from 115.8. Yet the expectations index declined to 91.0 from 91.6, suggesting Americans are a bit more cautious about the next six …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Shoddy Excuse for a Market

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-25-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-25-2015 DOW – 204 = 15,666 SPX – 25 = 1867 NAS – 19 = 4506 10 YR YLD + .14 = 2.13% OIL + 1.07 = 39.31 GOLD – 14.50 = 1141.40 SILV .10 = 14.80   Leading Asian markets fell again with the Shanghai Composite Index closing with a 7.6% loss and the Nikkei down 4.0%, while other key Asian markets closed with milder losses and Hong Kong ended up in positive territory. European markets were broadly higher, led by the first rise in the FTSE 100 in 11 sessions; the FTSE closed up over 3%; the Euro Stoxx 50 closed up 4.7 percent.   China’s stock market has dropped 22% in the past 4 sessions. Today, their central bank responded by cutting interest rates for one-year lending by 25 basis points to 4.6%, while the one-year deposit rate will fall a quarter of a percentage point to 1.75 percent. The required reserve ratio will be lowered by 50 basis points for all banks to cover funding gaps. China’s surprise yuan devaluation on Aug. 11 led to a tightening in liquidity as the PBOC subsequently bought its currency to stabilize the exchange rate and curb capital outflows. Roughly $4.5 trillion has evaporated from the Chinese markets since the middle of June – real, tangible wealth that no longer exists. Equities on mainland Chinese exchanges still trade at a …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Step 9

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-28-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 189 = 17,630 SPX + 25 =  2093 NAS + 49 = 5089 10 YR YLD + .02 = 2.25% OIL + .59 = 47.98 GOLD + 1.00 = 1096.50 SILV + .14 = 14.79   The Federal Reserve FOMC met today. They will meet again tomorrow and then they will issue a statement.  Investors are not expecting any major decisions this week, but they will be looking for hints on the Fed’s timing for possible future movements. While consensus for a rate rise is leaning towards September, the wild card is now China. A growing number of market watchers are suggesting that, before the year is out, two interest rate hikes rather than just one could be on the cards. In the Treasury market, futures contracts suggested that investors were making the same mistake they made at the outset of the last three major tightening cycles, by underestimating the amount the federal funds rate will be raised. The implied rate on September 2016 contracts is 0.8 percent, while many forecasts are looking at 1.5 percent to 2 percent.     Chinese shares whip-sawed between gains and losses today, as Beijing renewed its pledge to prop up an equities market. The 144 Chinese companies with primary stock listings in the US have erased nearly $40 billion in paper wealth since the Shanghai Composite peaked in mid-June; a 30% drop. After a plunge …

READ MORE →