Financial Review

Ugly With Snow Flurries

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-27-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 291 = 17,387 SPX – 27 = 2029 NAS – 90 = 4681 10 YR YLD un 1.82% OIL + .65 = 42.80 GOLD + 10.80 = 1293.10 SILV + .13 = 18.13 New York City was shut down overnight. That “blizzard of the century” was indeed a bad storm but not the predicted “snowpocalyspe”, even though authorities shut down schools, roads, subways, and rail; and more than 8,000 flights were cancelled. Turned out to be an overabundance of caution. New England was socked quite solidly, but not the Big Apple. Weather forecasters got it wrong; not the first time. And once again we were reminded that the news media is centered in New York. (The bad news is that Wall Street opened this morning.) Let’s start with a few economic reports. Home prices edge 0.2% lower in November. The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city composite index dipped 0.2% in November and that lowered the year-on-year advance to 4.3%, down from a reading of 4.5% in October. Phoenix posted a 0.2% increase in home prices in November, but the year-on-year advance was only 1.9%. The Case-Shiller report looks at resales of existing homes. Also today, the Commerce Department reported a big increase in new home sales; up 11.6% last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 481,000. The gains were not enough to offset essentially flat home-buying over the course …

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Financial Review

Third Quarter Wrap

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-30-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW – 28 = 17,042 SPX – 5 = 1972 NAS – 12 = 4493 10 YR YLD + .02 = 2.51% OIL – 3.14 = 91.43 GOLD – 6.30 = 1209.70 SILV – .49 = 17.07 We wrap up the third quarter of 2014. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 3.4% year to date; and it is up about 11% from the lows of February. Ten of the 30 Dow stocks are up more than 10% year to date. Eight of the Dow stocks are in negative territory for the year, even after adding in divdends. The best performing Dow stocks are Intel (up 37% ytd) and Microsoft (up 28% ytd). The worst performing Dow stocks are Boeing (down 5% ytd) and United Technologies (down 6% ytd). The Dow lost 55 points, or 0.3%, for the month, and for the third quarter the Dow added 217 points or 1.3%. The S&P 500 dropped 31 points, or 1.5% in September, and added 12 points for the quarter; and that was good enough for the seventh consecutive quarterly gain, the best run for the S&P 500 since 1998. The Nasdaq Composite lost 87 points, or 1.8%, for the month, but added 85 points for the third quarter. The Russell 2000 index of small cap stocks lost 69 points, or 5.8% in September; and posted a loss of 98 points, or 8.1% for the …

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Financial Review

A Few Old Sayings

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-26-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSS08262014 DOW + 29 = 17,106 SPX + 2 = 2000.02 (record) NAS + 13 = 4570 10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.40% OIL + .55 = 93.90 GOLD – .70 = 1280.90 SILV – .08 = 19.38 The S&P 500 notched its 30th record of the year and closed above 2000 for the first time ever. The Dow also rose but fell short of its record closing high after setting an all-time intraday high earlier in the session. There are a few old sayings about the market that seem to fit. The first is, “the trend is you friend”; we have seen a few minor pullbacks since the bottom in 2009, but since the start of 2013 there has been a strong and steady uptrend. “A trend in place is more likely to continue than it is to reverse, until it reverses” and today marked a continuation of the trend, not a reversal. Why is the market going up? Who knows? There are plenty of problems around the world. The US economy looks sluggish, but “stocks climb a wall of worry to march into bullish territory”; that’s a phrase that’s been thrown around for more than 60 years, but was made popular by Joe Granville in the 1980s. Another financial proverb claims “Worry is interest paid on trouble before it falls due.” And the opposite of the “wall of worry” is “Bear markets …

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Financial Review

Tuesday, May 27, 2014 – Currently Trending Here

Currently Trending Here by Sinclair Noe DOW + 69 = 16,675 SPX + 11 = 1911 NAS + 51 = 4237 10 YR YLD – .02 = 2.52% OIL – .24 – 104.11 GOLD – 29.20 = 1264.30 SILV – .40 = 19.14   The S&P 500 Index closed at another record high. The Dow Industrial Average is just a little below the May 13 record of 16,715. The Russell 2000 index of small and mid-caps confirmed the uptrend. The Russell had been lagging and there was a concern that small caps might drag the blue chips lower. While the Russell is still down about 2% year to date, on Friday it moved above its 200 day moving average.   Any time the market is trending, it makes sense to look for divergences, or any indicator that might signal a change in trend, but the most important thing to watch is still the trend itself; in other words the market scorecard is measured in price. And right now the trend is up.   Let’s start with some economic news. The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices continued to show gains in prices for existing home sales; the 10-city composite was up 0.8% and the 20-city composite was up 0.9% month over month; and respective year over year gains of 12.6% and 12.4%. Nineteen of the 20 cities showed positive returns in March; New York was the only city to decline. As of March 2014, average home prices across the United States are …

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Financial Review

Financial Review for Tuesday, April 29, 2014 – Lowering the Bar

Lowering the Barby Sinclair Noe DOW + 86 = 16,535SPX + 8 = 1878NAS + 29 = 410310 YR YLD + .02 = 2.69%OIL – .12 = 100.72GOLD – .40 = 1296.90SILV – .13 = 19.54 The S&P/Case-Shiller home price index for February showed prices up 12.9% from February a year ago, that’s down from the 12-month advance of 13.2% reported in January. The index tracks existing home sales in 20 major metropolitan areas, and this economic report tends to lag, plus it is a 3-month moving average of prices; so maybe we could be seeing one of the last reports to reflect bad winter weather. Home prices fell in 13 of the 20 cities in February compared with the previous month, and it wasn’t just cold weather cities; prices in Las Vegas dipped 0.1% in February from the previous month, the city’s first monthly decline in nearly two years; home prices fell 1.6% in Cleveland and 0.7% in Tampa, Florida. Las Vegas still posted the biggest 12-month gain, with an increase of 23.1%. The Conference Board said its index of consumer attitudes dipped to 82.3 from an upwardly revised 83.9 in March; still, very near a 6-year high. A new report today from the National Employment Law Project finds that as the economy has inched toward recovery, low-wage jobs have returned far more quickly than middle- or high-income work. The report’s finding shows how the housing sector in particular is a key middle-income employer that has failed to rebound. …

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Tuesday, March 25, 2014 – Want to Buy a Cookie?

Want to Buy a Cookie? by Sinclair Noe DOW + 91 = 16,367SPX + 8 = 1865NAS + 7 = 423410 YR YLD un 2.73%OIL – .39 = 99.21GOLD + 2.10 = 1312.70SILV + .07 = 20.10 According to the S&P/Case-Shiller home price report, the home price index covering 10 major US cities increased 13.5% in the year ended in January. The 20-city price index advanced 13.2% for the year. Month to month, the 20-city index dropped 0.1%; the drop is not just weather related; from December to January, prices fell in 12 of the 20 cities Case-Shiller tracks. Taking a look at a few cities: LA was down 0.3% for the month but up 18.9% for the past year, San Diego was up 0.6% for the month and 19.4% for the year, Phoenix was down 0.3% for the month but up 13.8% for the year, San Francisco was up 0.5% for January and 23.1% for the year, the hot spot was Las Vegas up 1.1% for the month and 24.9% for the year, to lead the nation. The Commerce Department reports new home sales dropped 3.3% from January to February to a seasonally adjusted rate of 440,000. Sales fell in all regions except the Midwest, where they jumped 36.7%. Sales dropped 15.9% month to month in the West. The national median price for a new home was $261,800 last month, up from $260,800 in January. Compared with February 2013, the median price fell 1.2%. At the current sales pace …

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Tuesday, February 25, 2014 – Dumb Luck

Dumb Luck By Sinclair Noe DOW – 27 = 16,179SPX – 2 = 1845NAS – 5 = 428710 YR YLD  – .05 = 2.70%OIL – .76 = 102.06GOLD + 5.00 = 1342.60SILV – .07 = 21.99 Just a couple of economic reports to start. The S&P/Case-Shilller home Price Indices for December were posted today. Nationally home prices closed the year of 2013 up 11.3%, while posting a fourth quarter decline of 0.3%. After 26 months of consecutive gains, Phoenix posted -0.3% for the month of December, its largest decline since March 2011. Phoenix once led the recovery from the bottom in 2012, but Las Vegas, Los Angeles and San Francisco were the top three performing cities of 2013 with gains of over 20%. Another sign that the housing market slowed down during the fourth quarter: Fannie Mae, the nation’s largest mortgage guarantor, saw demand for foreclosed properties dip at the end of the year. Fannie reported last week an $84 billion annual profit for 2013 on the backs of large home-price gains and a series of one-time legal and accounting benefits. The report also showed that its inventory of foreclosed homes increased for the second straight quarter as it begins to take back more properties in Florida and other states where foreclosures have been tied up in courts. The report showed that the prices Fannie received on those properties, as a share of the underlying mortgage balances, declined slightly from the prior quarter for the first time in 2½ years. …

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Thursday, January 02, 2014 – Back in the Groove

Back in the Groove by Sinclair Noe DOW – 135 = 16,441SPX – 16 = 1831NAS – 33 = 414310 YR YLD – .04 = 2.99%OIL – 2.93 = 95.49GOLD + 17.50 = 1224.00SILV + .57 = 20.11 I’m back. We’ll try to settle into the groove here, starting with a look at the daily economic news. Financial data firm Markit said its final US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index rose to 55.0 last month, beating November’s 54.7 reading. So, manufacturing ended the year on a high note, growing in December at the fastest pace in 11 months. Signs of strength in both the manufacturing and services sector as well as stronger job growth across the economy contributed to the Federal Reserve’s decision in December to begin tapering, slowing its monthly bond purchases. I had expected the Fed would wait to begin the taper. I was wrong. It wasn’t really a shocking development because we knew they would eventually taper, it was just a matter of timing. The taper hasn’t actually started yet, it’s only been announced. One area where we’re starting to see some impact is in mortgage rates, now at the highest levels since September. The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage was 4.53% this week, up from 4.48%. And Freddie Mac also reports the average 15-year fixed rate climbed to 3.55% from 3.52%. While a jump in mortgage rates has slowed demand, buyers continued to push prices higher. According to the most recent S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, …

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Tuesday, August 27, 2013 – The Drums of War

The Drums of War by Sinclair Noe DOW – 170 = 14,776SPX – 26 = 1630NAS – 79 = 357810 YR YLD – .07 = 2.71%OIL + 3.34 = 109.55GOLD + 11.00 = 1417.00SILV + .19 = 24.62 Yesterday Secretary of State Kerry laid out the case against Syria. Today we learned the US could be ready to take military action as soon as Thursday. Defense Secretary Hagel today said: “We have moved assets in place to be able to fulfil and comply with whatever option the president wishes to take.” This follows last Wednesday’s suspected chemical attack near the Syrian capital, Damascus, which reportedly killed more than 300 people; more than 3,600 people were treated for nerve agents, and by some estimates the death toll is now approaching 500. You’ve surely seen the grisly videos. They are compelling, but in light of the faulty intelligence that preceded the war in Iraq, there is a call for stronger proof. White House spokesman Jay Carney says a report on chemical weapons use being compiled by the US intelligence community and will be published this week. There is not a requirement for Congressional approval for the president to initiate military action including strikes; rather the War Powers Act requires congressional notification, and that has been happening; of course questions of legality will be debated. The UK Parliament is to be recalled on Thursday to discuss possible responses. Prime Minister David Cameron said the world could not stand idly by after seeing appalling …

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Tuesday, June 25, 2013 – On Energy

On Energy by Sinclair Noe DOW + 100 = 14.760SPX + 14 = 1588NAS + 27 = 334710 YR YLD + .04 = 2.59%OIL + .07 = 95.25GOLD – 5.00 = 1278.60SILV – .05 = 19.74 A few economic reports to start. The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index for April showed average home prices increased 12.1% compared to April one year ago. All 20 cities in the index showed positive year over year returns and this marked the highest monthly gains in the history of the Indices. San Francisco showed the largest year-over-year growth at 23.9%, followed by Las Vegas at 22.3%, Phoenix at 21.5%, and Atlanta at 20.8%. New York saw the lowest levels of growth at 3.2%. Meanwhile, the Commerce Department reports sales of new homes rose in May to the highest rate since mid-2008. Sales increased 2.1% last month to an annual rate of 476,000. The median price of new homes, meanwhile, dropped 3.2% to $263,900 last month from a record high of $272,600 in April.  Business orders for durable goods, the big ticket items, rose 3.6% to a seasonally adjusted $231 billion. Business investment excluding defense and aircraft was up 1.1%, marking a third straight gain. A big factor was a 51% increase in orders for new passenger planes. In the first five months of 2013, business orders have risen 2.1% in compared to the same period last year. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index jumped to 81.4 in June, the best reading since January 2008 and …

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