Financial Review

Cold, Cold

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-30-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:14 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…Stocks slip again. Shutdown? Tariffs? Earnings? Fed? Real estate demand outstrips supply. Earnings season: CAT will raise prices because of tariffs but has plenty for buyback. Yemen turns into an oil problem for Saudis. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 07-30-2018

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Financial Review

3%

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-24-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS….Ten-year Treasury note tops 3%. Stocks fall. Earnings disappoint. Cat sees problems with tariffs hitting pricing.  FANGs give up market cap. Apple down on weak demand. 3M can’t stick. Home prices up faster than wages. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 04-24-2018

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Financial Review

Dollarish

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-25-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…More records for Do, S&P. New home sales slip. LEI jumps higher. ECB holds pat, Draghi hits US over dollar talk. Trump in Davos – say what? Deaton says US has a poverty problem. Earnings parade: Starbucks, Intel, Cat, 3M. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 01-25-2018

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Financial Review

Debasement

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-24-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS….Dow hits another record high. Cat, 3M lead earnings parade. Blackrock downgrades US credit. Tax plan soon, maybe. Corker and Flake speak up. Jobs of the future. Happy online holidays. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-24-2017

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Financial Review

Oh Canada

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-25-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Nasdaq record high; 17 years to cross 6,000. Earnings drive the market: McDonald’s, Caterpillar, Coca-Cola, AT&T, 3M, Chipotle. Panera delivers. Wells and Citi face angry shareholders. Trade war with Canada over lumber. Mexican tuna is safe. Judge blocks sanctuary city order. Consumer confidence dips. New and existing home sales rise. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 04-25-2017

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Financial Review

Watch and Wait

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1A-03-08-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 12:12 — 7.0MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..ADP shows 298,000 new jobs last month. Productivity up 1.3% but flat for year. ECB tomorrow. Japan GDP spark. China trade deficit. Oil glut continues, inventories at records. Mexican sugar, trade wars begin. Caterpillar’s taxing problem. CIA’s Vault 7 Wikileaks, biggest ever. AHCA could lose 10 million insured. Kauai, Hawaii goes solar with Tesla batteries. West Virginia showered with prescription painkillers. Wall Street bull faced down by little girl. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 03-08-2017

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Financial Review

And Pause

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-02-2017_1_.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Not a new record. Fed preps for hike. Bond market rattled. Snap snaps on IPO. Yahoo is just sad. Banks fined $321 billion (it’s hard to believe Clinton lost the election after Obama threw all those banksters in jail..oh, wait). DoL hits pause on advisers acting in clients’ best interests. Caterpillar raid. Earnings news. Creepy teddy bears. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 03-02-2017

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Financial Review

Something in the Water

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-17-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSStocks turn positive. A big water problem that won’t be resolved. Brazil has the most fascinating corruption.

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Financial Review

Cat Herders in the Oil Patch

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-28-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 01-28-2016   DOW + 125 = 16,069 SPX +10 = 1893 NAS + 38 = 4506 10 Y – .02 = 1.99% OIL + 1.43 = 33.73 GOLD – 9.70 = 1116.00   The story of the day was oil, and it made for another ridiculous day of trading, dragging stocks up and down in its wake. Oil rose as much as 7.8% after Russia’s energy minister said that OPEC and other producers may meet to discuss output. Then, OPEC delegates said no talks were planned and oil prices floated back down to earth. OPEC is comprised of countries that rely on oil to fund national budgets. So, low oil prices have resulted in national deficits and desperate times. Several countries would probably welcome production cuts that might lead to higher prices but then you have Iraq pumping like never before; and then add Iran to the mix.   Iran has put the finishing touches on a deal to buy over 100 Airbus passenger jets. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani is in Europe, trying to revive business ties. Rouhani visited Italy with a 120-member delegation of business leaders and cabinet ministers, signing a raft of deals. The shopping trip then moved to France to buy planes. Peugeot is also scheduled to meet with the group. All those planes and cars cost money. Iran will be adding to production, not cutting.  …

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Financial Review

Easy to Spot Winners

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-22-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-22-2015 DOW + 320 = 17,489 SPX + 33 = 2052 NAS + 79 = 4920 10 YR YLD un = 2.03% OIL + .18 = 45.38 GOLD – .80 = 1166.90 SILV + .16 = 15.94     European Central Bank policymakers are meeting today in Malta. ECB President Mario Draghi announced no change to interest rates or asset purchases, but he warned that emerging markets are hurting Eurozone growth prospects, and he hinted the central bank may lower the deposit rate further or expand its quantitative easing at its December meeting. Markets just love an accommodative central bank.   The European Economics Commission says “Greece has done a certain number of reforms, and we are going to give them money, €3 billion-euro in all,” and in the course of November, December, the commission will deal with the issue of the recapitalization of Greek banks and Greek debt.”     Chinese stocks recovered today as the People’s Bank of China added liquidity to the market. After the close on Wednesday, the PBOC injected $16.6 billion into 11 financial institutions via medium-term lending facilities. Meanwhile, the government’s anti-corruption campaign continues with a crackdown on golf, considered a lavish extravagance. Or in my case, cruel punishment.   New applications for U.S. unemployment benefits inched up by 3,000 to 259,000 in the week ended Oct. 17. This is the first gain after …

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Financial Review

Speech of the Day

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-24-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-24-2015   DOW – 75 = 16,201 SPX – 6 = 1932 NAS – 18 = 4734 10 YR YLD – .02 = 2.12% OIL + .43 = 44.91 GOLD + 23.80 = 1155.10 SILV + .36 = 15.25   Pope Francis addressed a joint meeting of Congress this morning. Francis urged the United States not to turn its back on undocumented immigrants, to reject the victimization of religious and ethnic minorities, to overcome income inequality and to save the planet from climate change, citing Scripture and the nation’s founding ideals. He also asked lawmakers to wage a constant battle against poverty and to ensure the wealth of the world is equitably shared and used to create jobs. It was really a very remarkable and beautifully crafted speech. I’m posting a link to the full text of the speech on by blog, and I would hope that you have a chance to hear or read the entire speech because it covers some of the most important issues of our time. You may be in total agreement with Francis or you might disagree with some parts, but make no mistake – this was a strong and moving address from one of the most influential people in the world.  After the speech, Francis went from some of the most powerful people to some of the least powerful as he had …

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Financial Review

Chips and Salsa

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-23-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 20 = 18,058 SPX + 4 = 2112 NAS + 20 = 5056 10 YR YLD – .02 = 1.95% OIL + 1.32 = 57.48   Record highs on Wall Street today. On March 10, 2000 the Nasdaq Composite Index reached an intraday high of 5,132 and closed at 5,048. It only took a little over 15 years to get back to those levels. The Nasdaq is now up 6.8% for 2015. The Nasdaq Composite now trades at 30 times earnings, versus a multiple of 190 in March 2000; not exactly a value play, but not dot-com frothiness. The S&P 500 hit a new intraday high but could not take out the 2117 record close from early March.   The number of people who applied for regular state unemployment-insurance benefits ticked up 1,000 to 295,000 in the week that ended April 18. Also, the government said continuing claims, which show the number of people already receiving weekly unemployment checks, rose 50,000 to 2.33 million in the week that ended April 11.   Sales of new single-family homes dropped 11.4% to 481,000 in March, hitting the slowest pace since November.  Sales of new single-family homes increased about 19% over the past year. However, sales still remain almost 40% below a long-term pace set over 20 years.   Financial data firm Markit said its preliminary U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ …

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Financial Review

Ugly With Snow Flurries

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-27-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 291 = 17,387 SPX – 27 = 2029 NAS – 90 = 4681 10 YR YLD un 1.82% OIL + .65 = 42.80 GOLD + 10.80 = 1293.10 SILV + .13 = 18.13 New York City was shut down overnight. That “blizzard of the century” was indeed a bad storm but not the predicted “snowpocalyspe”, even though authorities shut down schools, roads, subways, and rail; and more than 8,000 flights were cancelled. Turned out to be an overabundance of caution. New England was socked quite solidly, but not the Big Apple. Weather forecasters got it wrong; not the first time. And once again we were reminded that the news media is centered in New York. (The bad news is that Wall Street opened this morning.) Let’s start with a few economic reports. Home prices edge 0.2% lower in November. The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city composite index dipped 0.2% in November and that lowered the year-on-year advance to 4.3%, down from a reading of 4.5% in October. Phoenix posted a 0.2% increase in home prices in November, but the year-on-year advance was only 1.9%. The Case-Shiller report looks at resales of existing homes. Also today, the Commerce Department reported a big increase in new home sales; up 11.6% last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 481,000. The gains were not enough to offset essentially flat home-buying over the …

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Financial Review

Buckle Your Seat Belts

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-05-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:19 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW – 331 = 17,501 SPX – 37 = 2020 NAS – 74 = 4652 10 YR YLD – .08 = 2.04% OIL – 2.82 = 49.87 GOLD + 15.40 = 1206.20 SILV + .40 = 16.29 If Santa Claus should fail to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall. That is the old saying and most people think the Santa Claus rally covers the month of December, or maybe the week leading to Christmas; actually, the rally time frame covers the last 5 trading days of the year and the first 2 trading days of the New Year, which would include today. And today the markets were down; the worst day in 3 months. The Santa Claus rally is really an indicator. In 1999-2000 rally timeframe suffered a horrendous 4% loss. According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, on January 14, 2000, the Dow started its 33-month 37.8% slide to the October 2002 midterm election year bottom. NASDAQ cracked eight weeks later falling 37.3% in 10 weeks, eventually dropping 78% by October 2002. Saddam Hussein cancelled Christmas by invading Kuwait in 1990. Energy prices and Middle East terror woes may have grounded Santa in 2004. In 2007 the third worst reading since 1950 was recorded as subprime mortgages and their derivatives lead to a full-blown financial crisis and the second worst bear market in history. For the past 4 trading sessions, …

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Financial Review

A Boatload of Economic News and Earnings Reports

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-23-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW + 216 = 16,677 SPX + 23 = 1950 NAS + 69 = 4452 10 YR YLD + .05 = 2.28% OIL + 1.33 = 81.85 GOLD – 9.10 = 1232.90 SILV + .02 = 17.30 The S&P 500 has risen five times in the past six days, pushing the gauge up 4.9 percent since Oct. 15 and recouping about half the losses from a selloff that began in mid-September; the S&P is still down about 3 percent from a record. The Federal Housing Finance Agency, which tracks deals involving mortgages backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, said home prices in August were up 4.8% from the year-earlier period; and up a seasonally adjusted 0.5% in August from July. The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage was 3.92 percent, down from 3.97 percent last week. The average 15-year rate dropped to 3.08 percent from 3.18 percent. Mortgage rates are now at the lowest levels since the summer of 2013. Refinancing applications jumped 23 percent in the week ended Oct. 17 to an 11-month high. The number of people who applied for US unemployment benefits rose by 17,000 last week to 283,000, but initial claims remained below the key 300,000 level for the sixth straight week. The Conference Board’s leading economic index rose 0.8% in September, after no change in August. The index points toward improving employment and income growth …

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Uncategorized

Tuesday, April 01, 2014 – Murderers and Cheats

Murderers and Cheatsby Sinclair Noe DOW + 74 = 16,532SPX + 13 = 1885NAS + 69 = 426810 YR YLD + .04 = 2.76%OIL – 1.99 = 99.59GOLD – 5. 00 = 1280.80SILV un = 19,86 Congratulations Mary Barra, you’ve been named CEO of General Motors, one of the biggest companies in America; now head on over to Capitol Hill to take the blame for the people who used to run the company. Barra’s appearance before a subcommittee of the House Energy and Commerce Committee represented a significant new phase in the company’s crisis since it issued recalls that began in February for 2.6 million Cobalts and other vehicles. The problems with the cars involve faulty ignition switches; GM repeatedly failed to fix faulty ignition switches, despite conducting multiple internal studies of the problem since 2001, and 13 people died in the defective vehicles. Members of Congress and the families of people killed in GM cars are urging Barra to declare the cars unsafe to drive until new ignition switches are installed. So far, GM has said the vehicles are safe to operate as long as there are no objects attached to the ignition key.  GM conducted several internal investigations of the switch problems, dating back as far as 2001. Company engineers learned that the key in the ignition could be inadvertently bumped into the off or accessory position, causing the engine to lose power and disabling air bags. Documents show that GM approved the switch for installation in its …

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Uncategorized

Tuesday, April 23, 2913 – A Tweet Day

A Tweet Day by Sinclair Noe DOW + 152 = 14719SPX + 16 = 1578NAS + 35 = 326910 YR YLD un 1.70%OIL + .38 = 89.57GOLD – 12.70 = 1414.60SILV – .47 = 23.04 Some days you hear a bit of news and it’s bad, really bad. And then some days, hackers hack into the Associated Press Twitter account and tweet that there are bombs at the White House, and the stock market goes into a freefall, and it’s bad, but not really bad. Yes, a false tweet sent stocks plummeting. The 143-point fall in the Dow industrial average came after hackers sent a message from the Twitter feed of the Associated Press saying the White House had been hit by two explosions and that Barack Obama was injured. The fake tweet, which was immediately corrected by Associated Press employees, caused a sensation on Twitter and in the stock market. White House officials were unimpressed. An AP reporter apologized for the Twitter hacking at the start of the daily White House press briefing, saying the tweet had been deleted as soon as it was discovered. A stoney-faced Jay Carney, Obama’s personal spokesman, thanked the reporter but did not look amused. “The president is fine. I was just with him,” added Carney. The market recovered within a few minutes of the misunderstanding, but the incident raised many questions. We still have a problem with high frequency trading algorithms that scan the news and trade quickly, causing flash crashes. And then …

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Monday, April 22, 2013 – Airplanes, Austerity, and Flying Bulls

Airplanes, Austerity, and Flying Bulls by Sinclair Noe DOW + 19 = 14,567SPX + 7= 1562NAS + 27 = 3233 10 YR YLD – .01 = 1.70%OIL + .80 = 88.81GOLD + 19.80 = 1427.30SILV + .12 = 23.51 It’s Monday but it’s a better Monday than last Monday. No bombings to report today, at least not in our country. Over the weekend, the cover story on Barron’s magazine featured a cartoon drawing of a bull on a pogo stick, leaping through the air. You may recall that 6 months ago, Barron’s poll of big money, institutional investors were bearish on the market; that was about 1,000 points ago. Now they’re bullish. This would be a contrary indicator. But not today. Today, the bulls were buying the dips. The market started negative but finished positive. It’s all about momentum. Many fundamentally-oriented investors have been licking their wounds. And the nature of momentum-driven investing is that it can work longer than more sober-minded souls would think possible. An open question is the odd continued rise of stock prices even as corporate earnings weaken. Why are investors paying more for companies whose earnings are declining in aggregate? In normal bull markets, you see a new leadership group emerge, and late in cycle, investors increasingly favor conservative stocks. This time the leaders are defensive plays, high quality companies that pay healthy dividends. While bulls say that this is predictable given ZIPR, we’ve had ZIPR for years now.When this disconnect ends is anyone’s guess. But markets like this …

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