Financial Review

Stormy Weather

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-13-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSS…..Waiting on the Fed. CBO has numbers on the new American Health Care Act – and they are terrible. Intel buying Mobileye to drive into the future. Lloyds outsourcing jobs to IBM. South Korea’s Park out. No Bitcoin fund. Escondida strike. Icahn loads up on Herbalife. Changes in credit scores. Nor’easter on the way. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 03-13-2017

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Financial Review

Wednesday, August 27, 2014 – The Greater Depression

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-27-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSS08272014 Financial Review DOW + 15 = 17,122 SPX + 0.10 = 2000.12 (record) NAS – 1 = 4569 10 YR YLD – .03 = 2.36% OIL – .16 = 93.70 GOLD + 2.10 = 1283.70 SILV + .08 = 19.54 Any positive day for the S&P 500 means a new record high close; today was the 31st of the year. Volume was really, really light. This week the S&P 500 crossed above 2000, which would indicate the economy is strong; there are several economic indicators you could consider such as an abundance of corporate cash, a little more top line growth in the second quarter, and improved consumer confidence even if consumers haven’t found the cash to pay for things; but you also have the yield on the 10 year Treasury note dropping lower and lower, which would indicate the economy is weak. We are told the yield on Treasuries is low because of foreign buyers, and maybe Treasuries can be considered a global instrument; another possibility is that the deficit has been shrinking, meaning fewer new issuances…, still. Most divergences result in a reversion to the mean. So the big question is whether stocks come down or yields go up. The US budget picture will likely worsen in coming months as companies wait until next year to see what actions Congress will take on taxes. A report from the Congressional Budget Office says …

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Financial Review

Tuesday, June 03, 2014 – Always Look on the Bright Side

Always Look on the Bright Side by Sinclair Noe   DOW – 21 = 16,722 SPX – 0.73 = 1924 NAS – 3 = 4234 10 YR YLD + .06 = 2.59% OIL + .37 = 102.84 GOLD + 1.40 = 1245.90 SILV + .05 = 18.91   Automakers reported strong sales of new cars in May, the strongest annual sales rate since before the 2008 financial crisis. Industry sales rose 11.3%. Chrysler and GM had their best month of May in 7 years. A record number of recalls at GM since the first of the year did not crimp demand for the automaker’s new vehicles. Average transaction price for a new vehicle in May was $32,307, according to research firm Kelley Blue Book, which said average new-car prices were up $653 from a year ago, but down slightly from April.   The city council of Seattle Washington has voted to raise the city’s minimum wage to $15 an hour, the highest level of any major US city. Wages would begin to rise next year, ultimately reaching $15 from Washington state’s minimum of $9.32 over three to seven years, depending on the business. Under the plan, firms with more than 500 employees nationally will be given at least three years to phase in the increase, those who provide health insurance subsidies would get four years and smaller businesses would be given seven years. US minimum wage is $7.25, although 38 states have set higher levels. The states of California, Connecticut …

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Financial Review

Monday, April 14, 2014 – Blood Moon and More

Blood Moon and More by Sinclair Noe DOW + 146 = 16,173SPX + 14 = 1830NAS + 22 = 402210 YR YLD + .02 = 2.64%OIL – .11 = 103.63GOLD + 8.20 = 1327.60SILV un = 20.07 Here’s what you can expect; the Earth will eclipse the moon tonight about 10:58PM pacific time, adjust according to your time zone. The eclipse will take some time, a few hours. The moon will shift color from orange to blood red to brown, again depending on you locale and the weather. It should be interesting. The stock markets started the day in positive territory and as trading dragged on, the major indices moved lower on the very cusp of turning red, almost as if they were being eclipsed, and then positive again, right at 3:15 PM eastern time, everything just picked up. Now, you might think the markets are rigged. You might. A group of traders has sued CME Group Inc, accusing the operator of the world’s largest derivatives exchange of selling market data to high frequency traders, cheating other investors who lacked such access. The suit says the CME and its Chicago Board of Trade unit have been giving high-frequency traders early access to buy and sell orders.  They said this deprived other investors of the transparent, real-time data on futures and interest rate contracts that they thought they were getting, and were paying for. Volume was down from Friday; that’s a nasty trend, lighter volume on up days, heavier volume on …

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Tuesday, February 18, 2014 – Econ Roundup

Econ Roundup by Sinclair Noe DOW – 23 = 16,130SPX + 2 = 1840NAS + 28 = 427210 YR YLD – .03 = 2.71%OIL + 2.14 = 102.27GOLD – 6.90 = 1323.30 SILV + .12 = 22.06 Homebuilders’ confidence in the housing market declined sharply this month as the severe weather battering much of the nation keeps many would-be buyers at home. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo builder sentiment index dropped to 46. That’s down from January’s reading of 56 and is the lowest level since May. A reading of 50 is the tipping point between good and bad sales conditions. Certainly one sector singing the blues over the cold weather has been the airlines. More than 500 flights were cancelled today; almost 1,400 flights cancelled yesterday for the Presidents’ Day holiday and more than 4,000 delayed. The big day for cancellations was last Thursday, when more than 7,500 flights were scrapped. That’s bound to have some effect on revenue and earnings. Last week’s economic news was generally disappointing with weak payroll growth, mortgage applications slipping, retail sales dropping to the lowest growth rate of the recovery, and a sharp drop in manufacturing activity; that can’t all be blamed on bad weather. Several retailers didn’t even mention severe weather as they missed estimates for the holiday shopping season. US auto dealers have about $100 billion worth of unsold cars and trucks sitting on their lots. That level is striking given that car makers have pledged not to overstock …

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Wednesday, February 05, 2014 – Another Perfect Day

Another Perfect Day by Sinclair Noe DOW – 5 = 15,440SPX – 3 = 1751NAS – 19 = 401110 YR YLD + .04 = 2.67%OIL + .11 = 97.30GOLD + 3.20 = 1258.60SILV + .39 = 20.00 Yesterday on the Review we talked about the Congressional Budget office report. For a while this morning, the Internet was hopping with job-killing hype, when in fact the truth was vastly different. Obamacare’s impact, the CBO concluded, would lessen the supply of labor by encouraging certain folks not to work: “The estimated reduction stems almost entirely from a net decline in the amount of labor that workers choose to supply, rather than from a net drop in businesses’ demand for labor, so it will appear almost entirely as a reduction in labor force participation and in hours worked. . . .” That’s different than what most of the media was saying today. And then a funny thing happened; some reporters actually read the report, and the headlines changed just a little:  Wall Street Journal earlier: Health-Care Law Expected to Take Greater Toll on Workforce Wall Street Journal now: Health Law Seen Leading to Some Loss of Labor Talk Radio News Service earlier: Obamacare Will Cost 2.5 Million Jobs: Report Talk Radio News Service now: 2.5 Million Will Exit Work Force Because Of Obamacare National Review earlier: The CBO Just Nuked Obamacare National Review now: The CBO Just Nuked Obamacare The CBO never, ever reported that Obamacare would somehow or other kill more than …

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Tuesday, February 04, 2014 – Adjust Accordingly

Adjust Accordingly by Sinclair Noe DOW + 72 = 15,445SPX + 13 = 1755NAS + 34 = 403110 YR YLD + .04 = 2.62%OIL + 1.16 = 97.59 GOLD – 2.70 = 1255.40SILV + .17 = 19.61 Here come the bears; they tend to come out of the woods when the Dow has a day like yesterday, and they tend to growl. The latest noise is in the form of a couple of projections and predictions that the market will drop 40%. Perhaps we’re just going through a period of pricing discovery as the markets digest information. Maybe this will pass or maybe not. The typical bear market lasts 2 to 4 years and the average drop is about 40%, so it isn’t unreasonable to guess. And bear markets come around with regularity. The median duration for a bull market is 50 months and the average duration for a bull market is 67 months. The current bull market dates back to March 2009, which is right at 58 months. The idea of a bear coming along right about now should not shock anybody. We’re not there yet; a bear market would be a 20% correction; so we’re not there yet. Of course you might not want to just sit around and wait to get mauled by a bear. So, let’s consider where we are right now. Here’s the rundown: China’s GDP is slowing and their manufacturing sector is contracting and their shadow banking system may be harboring a few entities …

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Wednesday, June 19, 2016 – Don’t Fight It

Don’t Fight It by Sinclair Noe DOW – 206 = 15,112 SPX – 22 = 1628NAS – 38 = 344310 YR YLD + .13 = 2.31%OIL – .52 = 98.15GOLD – 17.00 = 1352.30SILV – .34 = 21.45 One of the best known adages in the financial world is “Don’t fight the Fed”. Marty Zweig is credited with that sage wisdom. Zweig was a professor of finance, and a financial analyst; he went on to become a hedge fund manager and he wrote a newsletter. He famously bet that the market would go down in 1987, and by October of that year he was short the market and made a big profit while most other money managers were getting clobbered. “Don’t fight the Fed”; that meant, according to Zweig’s theory, that if interest rates were going down, stocks would go up, and vice versa. He also claimed the way to make money was to be risk-averse, rather than taking chances on the upside. He said he was a big poker player while at Wharton, but had stopped playing when he became a money manager because he hated losing. In addition to “Don’t fight the Fed”, Zweig is credited with the adage, “Don’t fight the tape”; in other words, the market will have the last word, and complaining that the market is wrong is an excellent way to lose money. Zweig had a third rule: “Never relax”. Today the Federal Reserve concluded their Federal Open Market Committee meeting; they issued a …

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Tuesday, May 14, 2013 –

Booms by Sinclair Noe DOW + 123 = 15,215SPX + 16 = 1650NAS + 23 = 346210 YR YLD + .03 = 1.95%OIL – .94 = 94.23GOLD – 5.00 = 1426.80SILV – .24 = 23.51 So, we have record highs. I went back to check some of the earlier in the year predictions. Last December, Goldman Sachs was predicting the S&P 500 would hit 1625; sounded good, even a little bold back then. Of course, in the past week, we’ve blown past those numbers. Many experts are calling for a correction here. Maybe, maybe not. If your memory is still sharp, you’ll recall a few weeks back I was talking about the “Sell in May” strategy; and if you’re really sharp, you’ll recall I said the way to play that strategy was to wait for a MACD sell signal for an exit, rather than just an arbitrary date on the calendar. We still haven’t had the exit signal. The market is in full melt-up mode, extending further above its longer-term moving averages every single day. The riskier stocks helped pushed the market higher over the past week or so. Technology names blasted higher. Materials broke out and helped lead the market to record heights. This shows that we are finally seeing investors beginning to believe in the market again. In a recent Gallup survey, only 52% of folks said that they or their spouse own any stocks (that includes mutual funds). That’s a jaw-dropping number if only for the fact …

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Thursday, March 21, 2013 – Math Class was Canceled

Mark your Calendar, April 5 & 6 and make your reservations for the 2013 Wealth Protection Conference in Tempe, AZ. For conference information visit www.buysilvernow.comor click hereor call 480-820-5877. This year’s conference features Roger Weigand, Nathan Liles, David Smith, Mark Liebovit, Arch Crawford, Ian McAvity, Bill Tatro, and I will speak on Friday. There is an expanded Q&A session with all speakers on Saturday. I hope you can attend.  Math Class was Canceled by Sinclair Noe DOW – 90 = 14,421SPX – 12 = 1545NAS – 31 = 3222 10 YR YLD – .01 = 1.93%OIL – 1.07 = 92.43GOLD + 8.10 = 1615.80SILV + .36 = 29.28 Some economic reports to touch on. The number of Americans filing for first time unemployment benefits rose by 2,000 last week to 336,000, which is still close to a 5-year low. Jobless claims, a rough gauge of layoffs, have fallen below 350,000 in five of the past six weeks, marking the first time that has happened since late 2007. The National Association of Realtors reports existing home sales rose 0.8% in February to a seasonally adjusted rate of 4.98 million, which marks the highest level of sales since November 2009. While sales are still below bubble levels, we are seeing improvements; low rates are luring buyers and rising prices are luring both buyers and sellers back into the market. Inventories rose 9.6% in February, but still at relatively tight levels. Year over year, the national median sales price rose 11.6%. The trend …

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