Financial Review

Probably a Preview

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-14-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS  Edging lower. Monsanto/Bayer a big deal. Import prices fell. Census data on poverty, medical care, and inequality. Techies want real news. Autonomous shopping carts. Ford to Mexico. Uber minus Uber drivers. SpaceX minus a launch pad. Shipping minus customers. Apple’s back. Wells Fargo under investigation.   Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-14-2016

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Financial Review

A Tight Range

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-21-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 0.34 = 18,285 SPX + 4 = 2130.82 NAS + 19 = 5090 10 YR YLD – .07 = 2.18% OIL + 1.71 = 60.69 GOLD – 3.00 = 1207.80 SILV + .05 = 17.23   The S&P 500 closed at a record high today.   We had a slew of economic data this morning. The leading economic index rose 0.7% in April, indicating the US economy is still expanding.   Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 274,000 for the week ended May 16. Despite last week’s increase, claims remained below 300,000, a threshold associated with a strengthening labor market, for an 11th straight week. The four-week average for jobless claims decreased to 266,250, a 15-year low.   The National Association of Realtors reports sales of existing homes fell 3.3% in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.04 million. April’s sales pace was up 6.1% from a year earlier. The median sales price of used homes hit $219,400 in April, up 8.9% from the year-earlier period.   The jobless claims and existing home sales are pretty important because they are strong indicators for second quarter growth. We know the Fed is watching the labor market. It would be very difficult for the Fed to hike rates if the labor market starts showing signs of weakness. The housing data is …

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Financial Review

Good Luck With That

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-29-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:17 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 225 = 17,416 SPX + 19 = 2021 NAS + 45 = 4683 10 YR YLD + .02 = 1.75% OIL + .09 = 44.54 GOLD – 25.20 = 1259.10 SILV – 1.04 = 17.02 Yesterday, the Federal Reserve said it would remain “patient” on raising rates, but indicated it saw the U.S. economy getting stronger. The Fed also said it has seen inflation decline, and it may decline further, but that low oil prices are probably temporary. The FOMC statement said that economic activity has expanded “at a solid pace” and that labor market conditions have improved. That was certainly the case last week. The fewest Americans in almost 15 years filed applications for unemployment benefits during a holiday-shortened week that typically makes the data more volatile. Jobless claims dropped by 43,000 to 265,000 in the week ended Jan. 24, the lowest since April 2000. No state reported an increase of more than 1,000 in claims for the week ended Jan. 17. The National Association of Realtors reports its index of pending home sales fell 3.7% in December, though the year-on-year gain was 11.7%, the highest since June 2013. Pending sales measures contracts signed but not yet closed. The Census Bureau reports the number of owner-occupied households fell by 354,000 from a year earlier as the homeownership rate dropped to its lowest level since 1994. The …

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Wednesday, March 26, 2014 – Render to Caesar

Render to Caesar by Sinclair Noe DOW – 98 = 16,268SPX – 13 = 1852NAS – 60 = 417310 YR YLD – .03 = 2.70%OIL + 1.03 = 100.22GOLD – 5.90 = 1306.80SILV – .27 = 19.84 Durable goods orders increased 2.2% in February, ending 2 straight months of declines. Durable goods are items like refrigerators, cars, and airplanes that are built to last for several years. But we need to dig into this report just a little; orders for non-defense goods, excluding aircraft, were actually down 1.3%. This might also indicate that first quarter business investment is weak. The US Census Bureau began releasing data from its 2012 Economic Census, a survey of American businesses taken every 5 years. The enormous boom in domestic oil and gas production helped make the mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction industry one of the fastest growing sectors of the US economy. The number of businesses rose 26% from 2007 to 2012, employment in the sector rose 24% and revenue surged 34%. Meanwhile, from 2007 to 2012 manufacturing lost 2.1 million jobs, now down to just 11.3 million people employed in manufacturing. The finance and insurance sector shed 390,000 jobs between 2007 and 2012 and industry revenue fell by $137 billion, nearly 4%. But revenues in 2012 were still up 61% from 15 years earlier. There were one million retail stores operating in 2012. But the retail trade sector shed 65,000 establishments and nearly 778,000 jobs from five years earlier. Internet-based selling …

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Thursday, March 21, 2013 – Math Class was Canceled

Mark your Calendar, April 5 & 6 and make your reservations for the 2013 Wealth Protection Conference in Tempe, AZ. For conference information visit www.buysilvernow.comor click hereor call 480-820-5877. This year’s conference features Roger Weigand, Nathan Liles, David Smith, Mark Liebovit, Arch Crawford, Ian McAvity, Bill Tatro, and I will speak on Friday. There is an expanded Q&A session with all speakers on Saturday. I hope you can attend.  Math Class was Canceled by Sinclair Noe DOW – 90 = 14,421SPX – 12 = 1545NAS – 31 = 3222 10 YR YLD – .01 = 1.93%OIL – 1.07 = 92.43GOLD + 8.10 = 1615.80SILV + .36 = 29.28 Some economic reports to touch on. The number of Americans filing for first time unemployment benefits rose by 2,000 last week to 336,000, which is still close to a 5-year low. Jobless claims, a rough gauge of layoffs, have fallen below 350,000 in five of the past six weeks, marking the first time that has happened since late 2007. The National Association of Realtors reports existing home sales rose 0.8% in February to a seasonally adjusted rate of 4.98 million, which marks the highest level of sales since November 2009. While sales are still below bubble levels, we are seeing improvements; low rates are luring buyers and rising prices are luring both buyers and sellers back into the market. Inventories rose 9.6% in February, but still at relatively tight levels. Year over year, the national median sales price rose 11.6%. The trend …

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Thursday, November 15, 2012 – Pick One or Pick All Four

Pick One or Pick All Four by Sinclair Noe DOW – 28 = 12,542SPX – 2 = 1353NAS – 9 = 283610 YR YLD =1.59%OIL – 1.01 = 85.31GOLD – 11.50 = 1717.10SILV – .14 = 32.70 We had a few economic reports; they deserve mention; we also had a few flashpoints; we’ll get to those soon. Consumers paid somewhat higher prices for food, rent and housing in October, offsetting a decline in the price of gasoline at the pump. The consumer-price index edged up a seasonally adjusted 0.1% last month. Inflation-adjusted hourly wages, meanwhile, fell by 0.2% in October. Wages fell slightly, even as consumer prices rose, to account for the decline. Real wages have fallen 0.7% over the past 12 months, meaning consumers have less buying power compared with one year ago. Consumers got some relief in October, however, from the falling price of gasoline. The government’s price index of gas, which spiked 16.6% from July to September, tapered off 0.6% last month. The more important number to consumers — the actual cost of a gallon of gas — fell by almost 7% in October and retail prices continued to decline in the first two weeks of November. The average national cost is about $3.50 a gallon, down from nearly $4 a few months ago. Hurricane Sandy contributed to negative readings for both Philadelphia- and New York-area manufacturing gauges in November; not a surprise. First-time jobless claims soared by 78,000 to a seasonally adjusted 439,000 in the week …

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Monday, September 24, 2012 – Counting Fingers

Counting Fingers by Sinclair Noe DOW – 20 = 13,558SPX – 3 = 1456NAS – 19 = 316010 YR YLD -.04 = 1.72%OIL +.14 = 92.07GOLD – 8.50 = 1765.50SILV – .55 = 34.07PLAT – 16.00 = 1626.00 Goldman Sachs is out with some research. I always feel more than a little skepticism when reading Goldman research. It’s tough to believe a research report from a company you know would bet against you. You want to count your fingers after shaking hands. Goldman Sachs strategists expect the “fiscal cliff” to push the market lower in the fourth quarter, and they recommend investors sell the stocks that have lagged so far this year. Goldman chief U.S. equity strategist David Kostin writes that the S&P 500 should fall sharply after the election when investors finally realize that there is a possibility that the fiscal cliff will not be resolved smoothly. He says the majority of investors expect to see the fiscal cliff avoided in the lame duck session of Congress, but Goldman sees a one-in-three chance that Congress will fail to address the issue. Goldman says a catch-up strategy could be to sell stocks that have had the worst performance year-to-date. In the 23 years that the S&P was positive in the first nine months, a sector-neutral basket of underperforming stocks continued underperforming by an average 291 basis points during the fourth quarter, giving the strategy a 65 percent outperformance rate. In a separate report, Goldman forecasts an 18.2 percent return on …

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