Financial Review

Monday, Monday

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-08-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…Record highs for the S&P, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000. Earnings soon. Gov shutdown? Offshore oil and gas. 2017 and bad weather. Driving Fed policy. OK Google, what is CES? Kohl’s good Xmas. Credit card debt nears milestone. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 01-08-2018

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Financial Review

Returns Day

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-05-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..ISM services at 12 month high. ADP private jobs 153k. Dissent between Fed staff economists and policymakers. Midnight rules. Trump Tweets Toyota. There’s an app for that. Gasolinoza flares in Mexico. CES Day 2. Craftsman sold. National Returns Day. Credit bureaus fined. Big corporate defaults on the rise. AI coming for jobs. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 01-05-2017

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Financial Review

Worst Ever

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-07-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 01-07-2016 DOW – 392 = 16,514 SPX – 47 = 1943 NAS – 146 = 4689 10 Y – .02 = 2.15 OIL – .74 = 33.23 GOLD + 15.40 = 1110.20     The Chinese stock market was open for about 15 minutes; stocks dropped 5%, triggering circuit breakers, or rules that suspended trading. When trading resumed, it was all downhill and that triggered another level of circuit breakers, shutting down trading for the day; 29 minutes in total, the shortest session in Chinese market history. Circuit breakers are a new idea for Chinese markets; they have only been used since Monday, the start of the New Year. Trading was halted on Monday for 30 minutes. We have circuit breakers in place on Wall Street, and the idea is to allow a cooling off period when stocks are in freefall. In the US, trading is halted temporarily after declines of 7% and 13% in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, and only suspended for the rest of the day if losses reach 20%. In China, it only seems to make investors more nervous and they scramble to sell before getting locked out. After the trading halt, Chinese regulators decided to scrap the circuit breaker rule for the foreseeable future.   The Shanghai Composite Index finished down 7% at 3,125, bringing its losses over just four trading days to …

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Financial Review

The Question

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-05-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 01-05-2016   DOW + 9 = 17,158 SPX + 4 = 2016 NAS – 11 = 4891 10 Y un= 2.25% OIL – .87 = 35.89 GOLD + 3.10 = 1078.50 The Dow Jones Industrial Average had its greatest opening-day loss since 2008 yesterday. Today might be considered a tepid recovery, or maybe just a reminder that the world did not end with the change of the calendar.   China moved to shore up shaky investor sentiment today following an equities selloff that rocked global financial markets on revived concerns about the country’s economic slowdown. China’s CSI 300 Index initially dropped 2%, but a late session rally erased losses and the index closed 0.3 percent. State-controlled funds bought equities and the securities regulator signaled that a selling ban for major investors which was due to expire this week may be extended. The People’s Bank of China pumped nearly $20 billion into the economy, the largest amount since September. The yuan rebounded from a five-year low.  The Nikkei 225-share index in Japan finished the day 0.4 percent lower. The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong closed 0.7 percent down. European stocks rose, with the FTSE 100 in London up 0.7 percent for the day. The Euro Stoxx 50 index rose 0.4 percent.   Kuwait recalled its ambassador from Iran. The announcement is the latest in an unfolding regional row that escalated with Saudi Arabia’s execution of a Shiite …

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Financial Review

Admit It

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-08-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 323 = 17,907 SPX + 36 = 2062 NAS + 85 = 4736 10 YR YLD + .06 = 2.01% OIL + .08 = 48.73 GOLD – 2.20 = 1209.90 SILV – .16 = 16.48 Since 1928, the Standard & Poor’s 500 has started the year with 3 straight losing days eight times. And only once has the S&P 500 finished one of those years in the red. During the 8 years since 1928 that the S&P started with 3-day losing streaks, the index has returned 8.3% on average. For all years since 1928, the S&P has returned 7.5% on average. Maybe it’s a good thing to start the year with 3 straight losing sessions. Then there is the idea that the first 5 trading sessions of the year can be used to extrapolate the direction of the market for the year. If that is the case, then we might expect some rough sledding for the markets in the early part of the year followed by a strong second half of the year. This is a variation on the idea of the January barometer, which says (basically) that if January is positive, the year will be positive, and vice versa; that didn’t work last year, but it is accurate about 89% of the time. Of course, that’s just probabilities and tendencies. We don’t know where the market …

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