Financial Review

When Money Slows Down

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-09-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:10 — 7.5MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…Nasdaq up for 8. Wholesale prices flatline. Why worry about overshooting inflation targets. Money velocity at near record lows. Fed mops up surplus cash. Markets don’t reinvest for future growth. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-09-2018

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Financial Review

Milk and Cookies

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-18-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 26 = 18,298.99 (record) SPX + 6 = 2129.20 (record) NAS + 30 =  5078 10 YR YLD + .09 = 2.23% OIL – .14 = 59.55 GOLD + 2.30 = 1226.80 SILV + .19 = 17.78   Record high close for the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Whenever the S&P 500 hits a record high close we mention it. Whenever the Dow hits a record high close we have a celebration with milk and cookies. Our reasoning is that we never know if or when we will see another record high close. Sure, the Dow could hit another record high tomorrow, or it might falter and it could be 5 years or ten years until we see a record, or maybe never. So today we celebrate.   The rationale behind these record highs is suspect. Last week’s economic news was disappointing, and the bad news moved the markets higher, mainly on the idea that the Fed will be slower to raise rates. Retail sales were weak, industrial production was flat and capacity utilization decreased.  Consumers aren’t spending what’s left over after lower oil prices, instead, they are increasing personal savings. A new survey from Princeton Research shows 19% saved the difference from the gas pump, 4% invested, and only 14% took the savings from lower gas prices and went out and spent it …

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Financial Review

Monday, April 14, 2014 – Blood Moon and More

Blood Moon and More by Sinclair Noe DOW + 146 = 16,173SPX + 14 = 1830NAS + 22 = 402210 YR YLD + .02 = 2.64%OIL – .11 = 103.63GOLD + 8.20 = 1327.60SILV un = 20.07 Here’s what you can expect; the Earth will eclipse the moon tonight about 10:58PM pacific time, adjust according to your time zone. The eclipse will take some time, a few hours. The moon will shift color from orange to blood red to brown, again depending on you locale and the weather. It should be interesting. The stock markets started the day in positive territory and as trading dragged on, the major indices moved lower on the very cusp of turning red, almost as if they were being eclipsed, and then positive again, right at 3:15 PM eastern time, everything just picked up. Now, you might think the markets are rigged. You might. A group of traders has sued CME Group Inc, accusing the operator of the world’s largest derivatives exchange of selling market data to high frequency traders, cheating other investors who lacked such access. The suit says the CME and its Chicago Board of Trade unit have been giving high-frequency traders early access to buy and sell orders.  They said this deprived other investors of the transparent, real-time data on futures and interest rate contracts that they thought they were getting, and were paying for. Volume was down from Friday; that’s a nasty trend, lighter volume on up days, heavier volume on …

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Wednesday, August 07, 2013 – A Crack in QE

A Crack in QE by Sinclair Noe DOW – 48 = 15,470SPX – 6 = 1690NAS – 11 = 365410 YR YLD – .04 = 2.60%OIL – 1.12 = 104.18GOLD + 4.70 = 1288.30SILV + .11 = 19.69 Remember back in late May when Ben Bernanke hinted that the Fed might not continue Quantitative Easing forever; there might actually be a time when the Fed stopped pouring $85 billion into mortgage backed securities and Treasuries. The stock market took a hit on the whim of a whisper of a hint that the punchbowl might be removed. Bernanke did some backtracking, and the markets rebounded to hit record highs on the Dow and the S&P, and we all enjoyed milk and cookies. This week, we’ve seen several Fed officials talking about QE again, and again the markets are pulling back; down for three days. On Monday, it was Dallas Fed Bank President Richard Fisher; yesterday it was Charles Evans, president of the Chicago Fed Bank, and Dennis Lockhart, President of the Atlanta Fed Bank. Today, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Sandra Pianalto said that the central bank would be prepared to scale back asset purchases if the labor market remains on the stronger path followed since last fall. Pianalto said that there have been “clearer signs of a more sustained recovery” in the labor market in the last few months. “In light of this progress, and if the labor market remains on the stronger path that it has followed since …

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Tuesday, August 06, 2013 – Dog Days

Dog Days by Sinclair Noe DOW – 93 = 15,518SPX – 9 = 1697NAS – 27 = 366510 YR YLD + .02 2.63%OIL – .86 = 105.70GOLD – 21.20 = 1283.60SILV – .23 = 19.58 If the markets are boring you this summer, you just aren’t paying attention. August trading in this post-financial crisis landscape has been anything but boring. For the past four years, the market has offered tremendous gains and harrowing losses during the month of August. The boring, flat market many of us have grown to expect just hasn’t materialized. Investors were treated to big gains in August 2009 and August 2012. But in August 2010 and 2011, the broad market coughed up about 5%. In 2010, August ended up marking the final lows of a summer correction. In 2011, the eurozone crisis pulled stocks underwater by as much as 12% during the month of August, only to claw their way back from the brink of a new bear market. So much for the dog days of summer. This time around, nothing should surprise you.  The US trade deficit declined in June to its lowest level in more than 3-1/2 years as imports fell and exports touched a record high. The Commerce Department says the trade gap fell 22.4 percent to $34.2 billion, the smallest since October 2009. The percentage decline was the largest since February 2009. May’s shortfall on the trade balance was revised to $44.1 billion from the previously reported $45.0 billion. Exports of goods …

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Monday, July 09, 2012 – Barclays Did Not Act Alone – Reaching Into the Upper Echelon

Barclays Did Not Act Alone – Reaching Into the Upper Echelon-by Sinclair NoeDOW – 36 = 12,736SPX – 2 = 1352NAS – 5 = 293110 YR YLD -.03 = 1.51OIL -.34 = 85.65GOLD + 4.90 = 1588.30SILV  + .24 = 27.44PLAT – 2.00 = 1449.00Alcoa kicked off the second quarter earnings reporting season. Alcoa has the ticker symbol AA and they are one of the 30 stocks in the Dow Industrials, so they start the earnings season based on alphabetical order and size and a little bit of tradition. Alcoa lost $2 million for the quarter. With an overhang of high inventories and a 20 percent drop in prices since March, many aluminum producers are losing money. Excluding items, also known as the cost of doing business, Alcoa earned $61 million from continuing operations, or 6 cents per share, which topped estimates of 5 cents per share. Later this week we’ll have earnings reports from some of the big banks, so it seems appropriate that Alcoa start earnings reporting season with some flashy accounting. Based upon this loss, they will probably get a tax refund. President Obama called on Congress to extend tax cuts for families earning less than $250,000 a year while allowing taxes to rise for households making more.Obama said: “Let’s not hold the vast majority of Americans and our economy hostage while we debate the merits of another tax cut for the wealthy.”Obama wants Congress to pass a one-year extension of the Bush-era tax cuts for households making …

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Wednesday, June 27, 2012 – To Your Health; Spanish Junk; Barclays Bad; Falcone Flunks; Bhopal Veggie Garden; Goodnight Stockton

To Your Health; Spanish Junk; Barclays Bad; Falcone Flunks; Bhopal Veggie Garden; Goodnight Stockton – by Sinclair NoeDOW + 92 = 12,627SPX + 11 = 1331NAS + 21 = 287510 YR YLD -.01 = 1.62%OIL +.27 = 80.48GOLD + 1.60 = 1575.20SILV – .17 = 27.04PLAT – 18.00 = 1415.00According to the Centers for  Medicare and Medicaid Services, health spending accounts for about 18% of the GDP of the United States. So, tomorrow’s ruling by the Supreme Court on President Obama’s health care plan is pretty important, but so far the economists can’t seem to figure out the implications. This is not to say I have any advance info on the Supreme Court decision. They might say the Act is fine as it is, they might say they will eliminate the mandate but leave the rest unchanged, they might throw out the whole thing.  If they vote against Obamacare it will be seen as a highly partisan act. What better way to show the Court’s impartiality than to affirm the constitutionality of legislation that may be unpopular? That might be a stretch; I think I’ll stick with the idea that we’ll have to wait till tomorrow.The only safe bet is that there will be unintended consequences. For example, what if the Supremes strike down the mandate portion but leave the rest intact? The Obama administration put a mandate in the Affordable Care Act because the law requires insurers to charge the same premium regardless of health status. Without a mandate, it would …

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