Financial Review

Split

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-07-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSS…..Nasdaq record high close. Dollar gains. Greece on the edge of… China’s reserve slip. US trade deficit grows. US consumer credit inches up. CoreLogic home price index jumps. JOLT survey – openings flat, quits down. Betsy Devos confirmed. Army goes ahead with Dakota Access Pipeline. A gift for big oil. 9th Circuit hears arguments for travel ban. Oil prices down. GM workers finally catch a break. Apple number one in phone sales. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 02-07-2017

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Financial Review

Pendulums Swing Wide

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-07-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 03-07-2016 DOW + 67 = 17,073 SPX + 1 = 2001 NAS – 8 = 4708 10 Y + .02 = 1.90% OIL + 1.99 = 37.91 GOLD + 7.90 = 1268.00   The U.S. stock market posted its third consecutive weekly gains last week, following an impressive jobs report on Friday. Stocks pulled out small gains today, for the fifth consecutive session. The S&P 500 has now gained in 11 out of 16 sessions since its Feb. 11 low, and closed last week above its 100-day moving average for first time in 2016.   The Federal Reserve FOMC meets next week to determine monetary policy and the battle lines are being drawn. Fed Governor Lael Brainard, who has emerged as a leader of the Fed’s dovish faction, argued for “patience” in raising interest rates. Fed Vice-Chair Stanley Fischer, who has consistently sounded more hawkish than many of his colleagues, warned that inflation is showing signs of accelerating; which would indicate his preference for raising rates. Adding to the mixed signals, the European Central Bank meets this week and is widely expected to expand its stimulus measures, which likely means they go more negative. The big questions being how big and in what form? And that would just make a Fed rate hike all the more awkward.   Negative rates have been spreading through important sectors of high finance …

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Financial Review

The Last Jobs Report of 2015

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-08-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 01-08-2015 DOW – 167 = 16,346 SPX – 21 = 1922 NAS – 45 = 4643 10 Y – .02 = 2.13% OIL – .34 = 32.93 GOLD – 4.60 = 1105.60   The economy added 292,000 new jobs in December, much higher than estimates of 205,000 to 215,000. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.0%. The October and November reports were revised higher to show an additional 50,000 new jobs. In the final three months of 2015, the U.S. added an average of 284,000 jobs. That’s the fastest pace in almost a year. For the past year the economy added 2.7 million jobs. In 2014 the economy added 3.1 million jobs; that’s the best 2 years for job growth since the late 1990s. The economy has added jobs for 70 consecutive months; right at 14 million jobs during that time.  Over the past year the unemployment rate has dropped from 5.7% to the current 5%.   Hiring in December was led by professional firms. They added 73,000 jobs, though almost half were temporary. Construction companies added 45,000 new workers (but that might be more a sign of mild winter weather across much of the country in December, rather than a big upsurge in construction). Over the year, construction added 263,000 jobs, compared with a gain of 338,000 jobs in 2014. Health care employment rose by 39,000, with most of …

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Financial Review

Worst Ever

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-07-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 01-07-2016 DOW – 392 = 16,514 SPX – 47 = 1943 NAS – 146 = 4689 10 Y – .02 = 2.15 OIL – .74 = 33.23 GOLD + 15.40 = 1110.20     The Chinese stock market was open for about 15 minutes; stocks dropped 5%, triggering circuit breakers, or rules that suspended trading. When trading resumed, it was all downhill and that triggered another level of circuit breakers, shutting down trading for the day; 29 minutes in total, the shortest session in Chinese market history. Circuit breakers are a new idea for Chinese markets; they have only been used since Monday, the start of the New Year. Trading was halted on Monday for 30 minutes. We have circuit breakers in place on Wall Street, and the idea is to allow a cooling off period when stocks are in freefall. In the US, trading is halted temporarily after declines of 7% and 13% in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, and only suspended for the rest of the day if losses reach 20%. In China, it only seems to make investors more nervous and they scramble to sell before getting locked out. After the trading halt, Chinese regulators decided to scrap the circuit breaker rule for the foreseeable future.   The Shanghai Composite Index finished down 7% at 3,125, bringing its losses over just four trading days to 11.7%. …

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Financial Review

The Question

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-05-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 01-05-2016   DOW + 9 = 17,158 SPX + 4 = 2016 NAS – 11 = 4891 10 Y un= 2.25% OIL – .87 = 35.89 GOLD + 3.10 = 1078.50 The Dow Jones Industrial Average had its greatest opening-day loss since 2008 yesterday. Today might be considered a tepid recovery, or maybe just a reminder that the world did not end with the change of the calendar.   China moved to shore up shaky investor sentiment today following an equities selloff that rocked global financial markets on revived concerns about the country’s economic slowdown. China’s CSI 300 Index initially dropped 2%, but a late session rally erased losses and the index closed 0.3 percent. State-controlled funds bought equities and the securities regulator signaled that a selling ban for major investors which was due to expire this week may be extended. The People’s Bank of China pumped nearly $20 billion into the economy, the largest amount since September. The yuan rebounded from a five-year low.  The Nikkei 225-share index in Japan finished the day 0.4 percent lower. The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong closed 0.7 percent down. European stocks rose, with the FTSE 100 in London up 0.7 percent for the day. The Euro Stoxx 50 index rose 0.4 percent.   Kuwait recalled its ambassador from Iran. The announcement is the latest in an unfolding regional row that escalated with Saudi Arabia’s execution of a Shiite cleric …

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Financial Review

Off to the Races

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-04-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 01-04-2016 DOW – 276 = 17,148 SPX – 31 = 2012 NAS – 104 = 4903 10 YR – .02 = 2.25% OIL – .11 = 36.93 GOLD + 13.50 = 1075.50 The Dow started the morning with a 467 point decline. An inauspicious start to trading in 2016 kicked off, or more accurately fell down, this morning in China. Traders in Shanghai reacted to growing tensions in the Middle East and a drop in one of China’s manufacturing gauges. Fresh manufacturing surveys revived concerns about Beijing’s economic slowdown. China’s manufacturing activity contracted for the 10th straight month in December – the official manufacturing PMI stood at 49.7 in December. The yuan, which began new extended trading hours today, also hit its lowest point in more than four years in both onshore and offshore trade.   The China CSI 300 Index dropped 5% and that triggered circuit breakers that resulted in a 30 minute halt in trading of all stocks. When trading resumed, the traders were scared and they rushed to exit their positions. In a matter of about 7 minutes the Index dropped to a loss of 7%, and the next round of circuit breakers triggered a halt to trading for the remainder of the day.   The benchmark Shanghai Composite index closed the shortened session down 6.85% while the broader CSI 300 index, encompassing the largest listed …

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Financial Review

No Rhyme nor Reason

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-08-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-08-2015   DOW + 390 = 16,492 SPX + 48 = 1969 NAS + 128 = 4811 10 YR YLD + .06 = 2.19% OIL – .11 = 45.94 GOLD – 1.40 = 1122.40 SILV + .22 = 14.90   There is no particular rhyme nor reason to explain today’s rally on Wall Street, or for that matter, last week’s declines. Last Friday’s jobs report did little to provide clarity about whether the Fed would raise rates at next week’s FOMC meeting.   The economy added 173,000 jobs in August, which was below expectations; and the unemployment rate dropped to 5.1%. Following Friday’s employment data, futures market traders predicted about a 20 percent chance a rate hike will come this month, down from around 30 percent before the jobs report. I think the Fed might act next week, just to clear the air. If you remember back to the “taper tantrum” of 2013, when the markets became jittery about the prospect of the end of Quantitative Easing, the anticipation was worse than the actual event. So, the easiest thing might just be to do it and be done.   Of course, it is easy to argue against a rate hike. The U-6 unemployment rate is still around 10.3%; some people consider this the “real” unemployment rate because it includes part-time employees seeking full-time jobs and marginally employed workers. The …

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Financial Review

It Was All Yellow

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-31-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-31-2015 DOW – 114 = 16,528 SPX – 16 = 1972 NAS – 51 = 4776 10 YR YLD + .02 = 2.20% OIL + 2.80 = 48.02 GOLD + .60 = 1135.40 SILV + .04 = 14.73   Both the Dow and S&P had five days of gains or losses of more than 2 percent in August, making it the most volatile month in nearly four years. In August, the S&P lost 6.3 percent, the Dow fell 6.6 percent and the Nasdaq declined 6.9 percent. As far as Augusts go, this has been the worst performance for the Dow in 17 years. Overall it was the sixth worst monthly performance for the Dow and the worst since May 2010, when the Dow dropped 7.9%. For the S&P 500, it was the worst August since 2001; all 10 of the major S&P sectors were down for the month.   Investors are still divided over whether the Federal Reserve will hike rates next month, with Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer adding to the doubts in Jackson Hole over the weekend, saying: “At this moment, we are following developments in the Chinese economy and their actual and potential effects on other economies even more closely than usual.” Fischer was careful to announce he wasn’t signaling an impending rate rise, but the remarks suggest a September move hasn’t been ruled out of the FOMC’s next gathering. …

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Financial Review

Better Than We Thought

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-27-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-27-2015 DOW + 369 = 16,654 SPX + 47 = 1987 NAS + 115 = 4812 10 YR YLD un = 2.17% OIL + 4.03 = 42.63 GOLD + .10 = 1126.50 SILV + .41 = 14.62   Yesterday Wall Street cracked a six-day losing streak with its best rally in nearly four years. Today, traders piled on; the two-day total, 978 points on the Dow industrials and the best two-day percentage gain since the crisis of 2008; which wipes out Monday’s losses, but still leaves the Dow down from one week ago. On the longer-term charts, Monday and Tuesday dropped below the lows of last October at 15,855, compared to Monday’s low of 15,370, which basically matched the lows from February 2014 at 15,340. On a long-term chart this now provides a range of support. With today’s gains, the S&P has recovered about half of the 11-percent meltdown it suffered over a six-day losing streak.   China’s key stock market index surged 5.3 percent earlier today, for its biggest gain in eight weeks, and the first gain in five sessions. China has been selling down its holdings of US Treasuries; the idea is to put a floor under the devaluation of the yuan; also probably to raise some capital for stimulus. So far, it isn’t an asset dump and there is absolutely no evidence it is the source of economic …

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Financial Review

Shoddy Excuse for a Market

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-25-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-25-2015 DOW – 204 = 15,666 SPX – 25 = 1867 NAS – 19 = 4506 10 YR YLD + .14 = 2.13% OIL + 1.07 = 39.31 GOLD – 14.50 = 1141.40 SILV .10 = 14.80   Leading Asian markets fell again with the Shanghai Composite Index closing with a 7.6% loss and the Nikkei down 4.0%, while other key Asian markets closed with milder losses and Hong Kong ended up in positive territory. European markets were broadly higher, led by the first rise in the FTSE 100 in 11 sessions; the FTSE closed up over 3%; the Euro Stoxx 50 closed up 4.7 percent.   China’s stock market has dropped 22% in the past 4 sessions. Today, their central bank responded by cutting interest rates for one-year lending by 25 basis points to 4.6%, while the one-year deposit rate will fall a quarter of a percentage point to 1.75 percent. The required reserve ratio will be lowered by 50 basis points for all banks to cover funding gaps. China’s surprise yuan devaluation on Aug. 11 led to a tightening in liquidity as the PBOC subsequently bought its currency to stabilize the exchange rate and curb capital outflows. Roughly $4.5 trillion has evaporated from the Chinese markets since the middle of June – real, tangible wealth that no longer exists. Equities on mainland Chinese exchanges still trade at a …

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