Financial Review

No

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-06-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 46 = 17,683 SPX – 8 = 2068 NAS – 17 = 4991 10 YR YLD – .11 = 2.29% OIL – 4.40 = 52.53 GOLD + 4.10 = 1170.80 SILV + .06 = 15.85   Perhaps you have heard about the big vote in Greece over the weekend. Greeks voted to pay off all of their debt; they put the money in a big wooden horse. They left the horse on the doorstep of the European Central Bank in Brussels. Problem solved. Actually, Greeks voted ‘No’ in a referendum asking them to accept an international creditor proposal that would have included more austerity reforms. The final tally showed 61% voted “no”; so it was a bit of a landslide. Both the Greek people and their government want to remain within the euro, and it isn’t clear that there is a legal mechanism to kick Greece out of the Eurozone, at least not any time soon.  Of course a Greek exit might not be so bad. If you are an unemployed Greek worker, it really doesn’t matter if you are not being paid in euros or drachmas. Actually, the idea of printing their own currency, even if it is greatly devalued, is probably easier to swallow than the boot to the throat that is austerity. The question is whether the Greeks must leave the euro to have their …

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Financial Review

The Last Century of Fossil Fuels

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-08-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 82 = 17,766 SPX – 13 = 2079 NAS – 46 = 5021 10 YR YLD – .02 = 2.38% OIL + .14 = 58.28 GOLD + 1.40 = 1174.70 SILV – .17 = 16.06   The Standard & Poor’s 500 closed out 2014 at 2,058, and since then it has been trading in a fairly tight range, from about 2050 to 2130. It’s been 3 1/2 years since the broad stock market suffered a 10% drop. At some point the market will either break out or breakdown, but we didn’t see any real indications today. Even though the major market indices have hit record highs this year, the Dow, with today’s loss, is in negative territory year to date.   In contrast, international markets have been anything but boring. Germany’s DAX entered correction territory, down 10%, as European stocks declined on continuation of Greek debt negotiations. And Wednesday could be a very interesting day for Chinese stock exchanges, where the Shenzen has been on a run; up 50% year to date. Index provider MSCI will announce tomorrow whether to include China’s domestic markets in its widely followed emerging-market and global indexes. Rival index provider FTSE Group has already inaugurated transitional indexes for emerging markets to include Chinese A-shares, while S&P Dow Jones Indices said it would likely add the shares to its indexes in September. The new step …

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Financial Review

A Low Bar

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-20-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 208 = 18,034 SPX + 19 = 2100 NAS + 62 = 4994 10 YR YLD + .05 = 1.90% OIL + .76 = 56.50 No major economic data published today. The global markets have been focused on China and Greece. China is changing regulations and adding stimulus to try and prop up the economy, even as some of their big real estate development companies are staring down defaults. The problem with Greece is that they are ready to default; payments are due at the end of the week and they are scrambling for cash. Perhaps more importantly, earnings season will kick into high gear this week. Maybe all that will take a backseat to a facedown off the shore of Yemen. The US Navy has sent an aircraft carrier and a guided-missile cruiser into the waters near Yemen to conduct maritime security operations, and not to intercept Iranian arms shipments. It’s believed there are 9 US ships in the region, including cruisers and destroyers. It is further believed the Iranian Navy has sent up to 5 ships full of weapons bound for Houthi rebels in Yemen. Yea, what could go wrong?   Following soft GDP data last week, China’s central bank cut the reserve requirement ratio for all banks by 100 basis points to 18.5% yesterday, adding about $200 billion in liquidity for banks to lend. Last Friday, …

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Financial Review

Holy Grail

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-02-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 155 = 18,288 SPX + 12 = 2117 NAS + 44 = 5008 10 YR YLD + .08 = 2.08% OIL + .06 = 49.82 GOLD – 7.80 = 1206.90 SILV – .22 = 16.46   February was the best month for stocks since October 2011. The S&P 500 gained 5.5% in February. March is off to a fine start. The Dow Industrial Average closed at a record high. The S&P 500 closed at a record. The Nasdaq Composite hit 5000 for the first time in 15 years. And if you wonder why we celebrate when the indices hit records, it is because 15 years ago we didn’t know it would take 15 years to get back to these levels.   Earnings season is pretty much over and it wasn’t all that pretty. With 485 of 500 S&P 500 companies reporting, FactSet says the blended growth rate is only 3.7%. Without Apple that number shrinks to only 2% but then again if you take out energy, it balloons to nearly 7%. Estimates have been revised lower, which is typical; companies try to ratchet down expectations, but this is different. All sectors are showing expectation deterioration, not just energy.   Earnings growth has slowed, and valuations are a little on the pricey side, and expectations are down. So, why are stocks at record highs? Well, start with the idea that the …

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Financial Review

Catch a Falling Star

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-12-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:20 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW – 2 = 17,612 SPX – 1 = 2038 NAS + 14 = 4675 10 YR YLD un = 2.36% OIL – 1.19 = 76.75 GOLD – 2.80 = 1161.10 SILV – .04 = 15.76 Stocks have been on a run lately, with the Dow Industrials and the S&P 500 hitting record highs yesterday, and the Dow Transports closing at a new high today. Yesterday, the S&P 500 marked its 40th new closing high of the year, versus 45 in 2013. The last five-day streak of record highs was in May 2013, and the next longest was eight days in June 1997. The Dow also hit a record yesterday, marking 6 consecutive record highs, its longest since June. The S&P 500 has closed above its 5 day moving average for the 19th consecutive session, a streak that has only occurred seven times in the past 20 years. And today did not reverse the trend. Typically, after a rally like this you might expect a pullback; not necessarily a correction, but a pullback; a pause to catch your breath. And so, now would not look like a good time to buy, but you also haven’t seen a signal to sell, at least not yet. Meanwhile, the advance has been so straight and fast that it hasn’t left any support levels in its wake. You might look at S&P 2000 as a round number, …

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Author Interviews

Michael Silverstein – The $10 Trillion Prize: Captivating the Newly Affluent in China and India

Listen to the interview with the author and then click on the banner for more information or to buy the book. Meet your new global consumer You’ve heard of the burgeoning consumer markets in China and India that are driving the world economy. But do you know enough about these new consumers to convert them into customers? Do you know that: • There will be nearly one billion middle-class consumers in China and India within the next ten years? • More than 135 million Chinese and Indians will graduate from college in this timeframe, compared to just 30 million in the United States? • By 2020, 68 percent of Chinese households and 57 percent of Indian households will be in the middle and upper classes? • The number of billionaires in China has grown from 1 to 115 in the past decade alone? In The $10 Trillion Prize, bestselling author Michael J. Silverstein and his The Boston Consulting Group colleagues in China and India provide the first comprehensive profile of the emerging middle class, primed to transform the global marketplace. Already the world’s biggest buyers of cars, mobile phones, appliances, and more, these consumers are eager for more products and services. In fact, it’s estimated that by 2020, consumers in China and India will generate about $10 trillion of total annual revenue for companies selling to them. This book explains who these consumers are—what they buy and why, how they think and shop, and how their needs and tastes are …

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Financial Review

Thursday, May 22, 2014 – A Heckuva Business Model

A Heckuva Business Model by Sinclair Noe   DOW + 10 = 16,543 SPX + 4 = 1892 NAS + 22 = 4154 10 YR YLD + .02 = 2.55% OIL – .31 = 103.76 GOLD + 1.80 = 1294.70 SILV + .10 = 19.59   Yesterday we told you Russia and China had signed a 30 year, $400 billion dollar deal for Russia to deliver natural gas to China. Today, both countries vetoed a United Nations Security Council Resolution seeking to refer Syria to the International Criminal Court for possible war crimes. In the short-term, the Russia-China gas deal won’t have a big impact. The deal will not be in place until 2018 and even then will only see Russia selling a fraction of its gas exports to China every year, exports to the EU could still well be two to four times the size.   The economic links between Russia and Europe will continue to be significant and they will continue to be reliant on each other when it comes to energy; the former to sell the latter to buy, but this link gives an advantage to Russia, especially when the weather turns cold. At least symbolically the deal highlights Russia’s desire to move away from links with Europe. Combine this with Europe’s desire to increase energy security and the relations between the two sides could become increasingly cold and distant. Although, some countries due to geographical proximity, such as Bulgaria or Hungary; or due to long standing …

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Financial Review

Monday, May 20, 2014 – Protected Species

Protected Species by Sinclair Noe DOW – 137 = 16,374 SPX -12 = 1872 NAS – 28 = 4096 10 YR YLD – .02 = 2.51% OIL + .87 = 102.98 GOLD + 1.70 = 1295.30 SILV + .05 = 19.49 Today is Tuesday and that means that General Motors has announced another recall; this time 2.6 million more cars. Last week, GM recalled 3 million vehicles. So far this year, GM has announced 29 recalls affecting more than 15 million cars globally. The list of recalled vehicles is long. It’s easier to list the vehicles that haven’t been recalled; they have recalled 58 versions of Chevrolet and GMC pickups.   Last week the Dow hit a record high; since then it has been floundering. For the fourth straight session, the Nasdaq Composite has posted more 52-week lows than 52-week highs; 55 lows versus 38 highs. The Russell 2000 Index of small and mid-cap stocks hit a high on March 4th and since then it has dropped almost 10%.   Meanwhile, interest rates have been moving steadily lower despite winding down of large scale asset purchases under the Fed’s quantitative easing, and the talk about raising interest rates at some point down the road. With yields on the 10-yr Treasury note dipping down around 2.5%, that means somebody is buying Treasuries, but if not the Fed, then who?   Well, it’s certainly not Russia. Putin sold off more than $100 billion in Treasuries in March; he was probably expecting Treasury …

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Uncategorized

Thursday, March 20, 2014 – Stress Tests and Such

Stress Tests and Suchby Sinclair Noe DOW + 108 = 16331SPX + 11 = 1872NAS + 11 = 431910 YR YLD un = 2.77%OIL – .27 = 98.63GOLD – 2.10 = 1329.50 SILV – .34 = 20.37 More sanctions for and from Russia; President Obama today expanded sanctions against Putin’s inner circle, now banning visas and freezing assets of 20; the blacklist now includes a commodity broker with a brokerage based in Switzerland, plus Bank Rossiya with about $10 billion in assets. In response, the Russian Duma, the lower house of parliament ratified the annexation of Crimea, and Putin announced sanctions against US oligarchs, including Senators John McCain and Harry Reid, and House Speaker John Boehner. McCain said he would have to cancel his plans for Spring break in Siberia. There is an EU summit underway, and it remains to be seen if European leaders will get tough with sanctions. German Chancellor Angela Merkel has been talking tough but the Euro-economy is still fragile, and it is doubtful sanctions will serve as a strong deterrent. This is not to say that sanctions won’t have an effect. Some of Russia’s largest companies are registered abroad where they may benefit from lower tax rates. You might not have caught this next bit of news, after all there was a lot going on today with the Russian sanctions and the breaking news on the missing plane and the basketball brackets and such; anyway, in Florida today, after talking about sanctions, President Obama called …

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Uncategorized

Friday, January 24, 2014 – Bulls, Bears, and Bonuses

Bulls, Bears, and Bonuses by Sinclair Noe DOW – 318 = 15,879SPX – 38 = 1790NAS – 90 = 412810 YR YLD – .04 = 2.73%OIL – .41 = 96.91GOLD + 4.40 = 1270.00SILV – .11 = 20.01 The Dow has fallen every day this week, leaving it down more than 3%. That decline is the Dow’s worst weekly performance since mid-May 2012. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is down 2.5% since last Friday. That’s the index’s worst weekly slide since early November 2012. All of the sudden, everybody seemed concerned about political and economic problems in Turkey, Argentina, and of course, China. The Turkish lira hit a record low and the South African rand fell to five-year low against the dollar. The Argentine peso had its sharpest decline in 12 years, going back to the 2002 financial crisis in that country; and the government abandoned its long standing policy of intervening to support the peso currency. Such moves are crucial factors for big, institutional foreign investors because exchange rate losses can easily wipe out any gains in stocks and bonds of emerging countries. Right now, the losses haven’t turned into a rout, but there is concern that the turn may push big institutional investors to cut losses and run as the effect of falling currencies becomes too painful to bear. Every emerging market crisis is first-and-foremost a currency crisis. For example, South African government debt was slightly positive in rand terms in 2013. But in dollars terms, it lost more …

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