Financial Review

Muppets in the Lobby

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-13-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-13-2015 DOW + 5 = 17,408 SPX – 2 = 2083 NAS – 10 = 5033 10 YR YLD + .06 = 2.19% OIL – 1.07 = 42.23 GOLD – 10.80 = 1115.70 SILV – .12 = 15.52 So, stocks closed basically flat, but it was a roller coaster ride. The major indices started the day in negative territory, then recovered, only to slide into the close. This was a very busy day for economic reports.   Sales at US retailers were solid in July and stronger than previously estimated for May and June. Retail sales rose a seasonally adjusted 0.6% last month, or by 0.4% excluding the auto sector. In the retail sales data in July, the gains were led by the auto sector, where sales jumped 1.4%. This was expected as the light vehicle selling rate rose to a seasonally adjusted 17.5 million units, the second best result since early 2006. And just a quick reminder that many auto sales are imports. But the sales gain in July was broad based. All sectors showed increases except electronics and general merchandise and department stores. In the past year, retail sales have risen 2.4%.   A side note here; it may seem strange that consumers are spending less on electronics, after all it seems like everybody has smartphones and other electro-gadgets; the reality is that we are buying …

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Financial Review

Dead Cats and Shade Balls

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-11-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-11-2015 DOW – 212 = 17,402 SPX – 20 = 2084 NAS – 65 = 5036 10 YR YLD – .10 = 2.14% OIL – 1.71 = 43.25 GOLD + 4.60 = 1109.70 SILV + .13 = 15.46   Since mid-July the Dow Industrial Average has dropped from a high of 18,137, including a 5 session losing streak; in late July the Dow dropped below its 200 day moving average, indicating a downtrend; it bounced up to touch the 200-day moving average but could not break through; after that we started August with a 6 session losing streak. Yesterday, the Dow bounced 241 points; and that is looking like a dead cat bounce today.   China’s central bank devalued the yuan in an effort to help jump-start its stalling economy. The central bank cut its daily reference rate by 1.9 percent, triggering the yuan’s biggest one-day drop since China ended a dual-currency system. For background, the yuan’s peg to the dollar had been in place since 2006. The People’s Bank of China, their central bank, would buy or sell yuan to keep the currency near a certain value against the dollar. The dollar’s been strong since 2011. And so, the peg made the yuan strong too.   The People’s Bank of China called the change a one-time adjustment and said its fixing will become more aligned with supply and demand. …

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Financial Review

Rockets and Rocks

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-23-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 119 = 17,731 SPX – 12 = 2102 NAS – 25 = 5146 10 YR YLD – .05 = 2.27% OIL – .74 = 48.45 GOLD – 3.60 = 1091.40 SILV – .14 = 14.76   Greece can begin bailout talks. Greece’s parliament approved new reforms that pave the way for Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras to begin negotiating his country’s third bailout. Parliament overwhelmingly approved the measures, but roughly a quarter of Tsipras’ Syriza party voted against the reforms. Now Greece and its creditors will begin working out the details of the latest bailout package, the third for Athens in the past five years. Nearly everyone agrees that Greek debt is unsustainably high, but that’s where the agreement ends. The IMF on July 14th issued a report calling for debt relief, a 180 turn from their earlier demands of austerity. The monetary fund recommended either a “very dramatic extension” of payment deadlines by up to 30 years or “deep upfront haircuts,” banker jargon for write-offs.   Lots of headlines flew out of Asia  overnight: Japan’s exports increased the most in five months in June, fueled by strengthening overseas demand, but imports remained subdued due to the effect of lower commodity prices. South Korea’s economy logged its weakest expansion in six years in Q2, recording just 0.3% growth from the previous quarter, as the country got battered by a MERS …

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Financial Review

Sheepish Algorithms

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-14-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 75 = 18,053 SPX + 9 = 2108 NAS + 33 = 5104 10 YR YLD – .03 = 2.40% OIL + .84 = 53.04 GOLD – 2.70 = 1155.80 SILV – .13 = 15.48   The stock market posted its first 4-day winning streak since January. The S&P 500 last week fell as much as 4 percent from its all-time high, and has since recovered to trade within 1 percent of its record set in May. The S&P 500 and the Dow are up 3 percent over four sessions, while the Nasdaq Composite has added 4 percent. The United States and other world powers reached an agreement with Iran that calls for limits on Tehran’s nuclear program in return for lifting economic sanctions that have crippled Iran’s economy, enabling the oil-rich nation to ramp up its energy exports, access international finance and open the doors to global investors. Full implementation of the agreement will likely take months and is contingent on the pace at which Iran meets its obligations. The deal will keep Iran from producing enough material for an atomic weapon for at least 10 years and impose provisions for inspections of Iranian facilities, including military sites.   Oil prices initially dropped when the Iran deal was announced, but then prices climbed higher. The oil markets were not surprised by the news announcement, and a …

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Financial Review

Sound and Fury

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-10-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 211 = 17,760 SPX + 25 = 2076 NAS + 75 = 4997 10 YR YLD + .11 = 2.41% OIL + .04 = 52.82 GOLD + 3.50 = 1163.80 SILV + .23 = 15.72   For the week, the Dow rose 0.17 percent while the S&P fell 0.01 percent and the Nasdaq ended down 0.23 percent in its third straight weekly decline. The markets were full of sound and fury, signifying nothing, perhaps.   Greece faces a Sunday deadline to reach a deal with its creditors. Yesterday, Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras submitted a proposal that appears to meet most creditor demands in exchange for a new €53 billion-euro bailout. The package of spending cuts, pension savings and tax increases almost mirrors that from creditors on June 26, which was rejected by Greek voters in a July 5 referendum. Eurozone decision makers are set to assess the plan during crisis meetings on Saturday and Sunday. Meanwhile, Tsipras took the proposal to the Greek parliament to see if they will stand behind the deal. Outside, anti-austerity protestors rallied against the deal; which makes sense; last week a strong majority voted against the very type of deal Tsipras is now trying to sell. The Greek blueprint for pension cuts and VAT increases is essentially copied word-for-word from the June 24 European proposal; it does not appear to include debt relief. …

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Financial Review

Move Along

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-09-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 33 = 17,548 SPX + 4 = 2051 NAS + 12 = 4922 10 YR YLD + .06 = 2.30% OIL – .07 = 52.71 GOLD + 1.30 = 1160.30 SILV + .27 = 15.49   The major stock indices finished well off the highs for the day but still in positive territory. The New York Stock Exchange was open for business today, following a 3.5 hour shutdown yesterday. While yesterday’s outage stopped trading at the New York Stock Exchange, shares listed on that exchange continued to trade on other venues such as the Nasdaq Stock Market and Bats Global Markets. NYSE officials blame the halt in trading on a software update that didn’t work out. And they say it was just coincidental that United Airlines had computer problems that grounded flights for 2 hours. And it just coincidental that the Wall Street Journal Website went down just before trading was halted. And it was just coincidental that the ZeroHedge website went down just before trading halted. And it was just coincidental 12 hours before the shutdown, the hacktivist group Anonymous sent a Tweet saying, “Wonder if tomorrow is going to be bad for Wall Street…. we can only hope.” And it was just coincidental that China’s stock market was going through its own meltdown, though much more fundamental in nature; and the Chinese were more than …

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Financial Review

Crash

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-08-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 261 = 17,515 SPX – 34 = 2046 NAS – 87 = 4909 10 YR YLD – .02 = 2.20% OIL – .68 = 51.65 GOLD + 3.00 = 1159.00 SILV + .08 = 15.22   The stock market crashed today. Before you accuse me of over exaggerating, I do not consider a 261 point drop on the Dow to be a crash; that’s just a down day, with a dollop of ugly. No, I mean the actual New York Stock Exchange crashed. The computers malfunctioned. Trading stopped for 3.5 hours. Open orders were cancelled. Other orders were re-routed. This was an actual technical crash. It started with a few squirrelly trades in the morning, and at 11:32 AM, the New York Stock Exchange surrendered, halted trading, and tried to reboot the computers.   And for the most part, it did not stop trading in NYSE listed stocks. The other exchanges picked up the trades. First, the Nasdaq did not crash; next the BATS system just re-routed trades, ARCA picked up more trades, and the Philly exchange handled some trades as well. So, in many ways, it was a typical trading day. The New York Stock Exchange is really more of a TV studio these days than a central force behind buy and sell orders. CNBC broadcasts there; tourists gawk; all the trades are electronic, in a …

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Financial Review

No

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-06-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 46 = 17,683 SPX – 8 = 2068 NAS – 17 = 4991 10 YR YLD – .11 = 2.29% OIL – 4.40 = 52.53 GOLD + 4.10 = 1170.80 SILV + .06 = 15.85   Perhaps you have heard about the big vote in Greece over the weekend. Greeks voted to pay off all of their debt; they put the money in a big wooden horse. They left the horse on the doorstep of the European Central Bank in Brussels. Problem solved. Actually, Greeks voted ‘No’ in a referendum asking them to accept an international creditor proposal that would have included more austerity reforms. The final tally showed 61% voted “no”; so it was a bit of a landslide. Both the Greek people and their government want to remain within the euro, and it isn’t clear that there is a legal mechanism to kick Greece out of the Eurozone, at least not any time soon.  Of course a Greek exit might not be so bad. If you are an unemployed Greek worker, it really doesn’t matter if you are not being paid in euros or drachmas. Actually, the idea of printing their own currency, even if it is greatly devalued, is probably easier to swallow than the boot to the throat that is austerity. The question is whether the Greeks must leave the euro to have …

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Financial Review

The Last Century of Fossil Fuels

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-08-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 82 = 17,766 SPX – 13 = 2079 NAS – 46 = 5021 10 YR YLD – .02 = 2.38% OIL + .14 = 58.28 GOLD + 1.40 = 1174.70 SILV – .17 = 16.06   The Standard & Poor’s 500 closed out 2014 at 2,058, and since then it has been trading in a fairly tight range, from about 2050 to 2130. It’s been 3 1/2 years since the broad stock market suffered a 10% drop. At some point the market will either break out or breakdown, but we didn’t see any real indications today. Even though the major market indices have hit record highs this year, the Dow, with today’s loss, is in negative territory year to date.   In contrast, international markets have been anything but boring. Germany’s DAX entered correction territory, down 10%, as European stocks declined on continuation of Greek debt negotiations. And Wednesday could be a very interesting day for Chinese stock exchanges, where the Shenzen has been on a run; up 50% year to date. Index provider MSCI will announce tomorrow whether to include China’s domestic markets in its widely followed emerging-market and global indexes. Rival index provider FTSE Group has already inaugurated transitional indexes for emerging markets to include Chinese A-shares, while S&P Dow Jones Indices said it would likely add the shares to its indexes in September. The new …

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Financial Review

A Low Bar

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-20-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 208 = 18,034 SPX + 19 = 2100 NAS + 62 = 4994 10 YR YLD + .05 = 1.90% OIL + .76 = 56.50 No major economic data published today. The global markets have been focused on China and Greece. China is changing regulations and adding stimulus to try and prop up the economy, even as some of their big real estate development companies are staring down defaults. The problem with Greece is that they are ready to default; payments are due at the end of the week and they are scrambling for cash. Perhaps more importantly, earnings season will kick into high gear this week. Maybe all that will take a backseat to a facedown off the shore of Yemen. The US Navy has sent an aircraft carrier and a guided-missile cruiser into the waters near Yemen to conduct maritime security operations, and not to intercept Iranian arms shipments. It’s believed there are 9 US ships in the region, including cruisers and destroyers. It is further believed the Iranian Navy has sent up to 5 ships full of weapons bound for Houthi rebels in Yemen. Yea, what could go wrong?   Following soft GDP data last week, China’s central bank cut the reserve requirement ratio for all banks by 100 basis points to 18.5% yesterday, adding about $200 billion in liquidity for banks to lend. Last …

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