Financial Review

Out of the Void

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-31-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:05 — 7.5MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…July was a good month on Wall Street. Apple beats. Facebook does something about bad actors. Home prices up, but construction loses workers. Consumer confidence up. PCE up. Spending up. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 07-31-2018

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Financial Review

Cold, Cold

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-30-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:14 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…Stocks slip again. Shutdown? Tariffs? Earnings? Fed? Real estate demand outstrips supply. Earnings season: CAT will raise prices because of tariffs but has plenty for buyback. Yemen turns into an oil problem for Saudis. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 07-30-2018

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Financial Review

The Harder They Fall

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-26-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…Facebook’s epic crash. Amazon does Amazon. Facial Rekognition sort of works. Earnings roundup: Intel, Starbucks, Chipotle, airlines. GDP tomorrow. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 07-26-2018

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Financial Review

A Little Disruption

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-28-2018.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS..1Q GDP trimmed. It averages out. Stress Test and a parade of dividends. Amazon disrupts: pharmacies, and deliveries. Foxconn breaks ground. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 06-28-2018

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Financial Review

Oh Canada

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-25-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Nasdaq record high; 17 years to cross 6,000. Earnings drive the market: McDonald’s, Caterpillar, Coca-Cola, AT&T, 3M, Chipotle. Panera delivers. Wells and Citi face angry shareholders. Trade war with Canada over lumber. Mexican tuna is safe. Judge blocks sanctuary city order. Consumer confidence dips. New and existing home sales rise. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 04-25-2017

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Financial Review

Flying Burritos in the Matrix

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-08-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSECB stands pat. Phoenix real estate: inventories up. Oil prices: inventories down. Mario goes mobile. PlayStation Slim. More M&A. Flying burritos. BAML thinks we’re in the matrix. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-08-2016

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Financial Review

Sleepwalking Higher

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-07-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSStocks hit highs. More job openings. Beige remains modest. Fed still jawbones. Apple Event Day, whoopee. Hanjin dead to irons. Ackman’s big burrito. Apache’s big find. Mylan’s big price gouge bites back. HSBC violates parole. Goldman’s political games. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-07-2016

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Financial Review

Waiting on the FOMC

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-26-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSMarkets calm ahead of FOMC decision. Apple chopped. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 04-26-2016

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Financial Review

Addiction to Oil

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-25-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSClosing numbers and economic news, including: FOMC plus earnings on tap; Saudis try to end oil addiction; M&A news; free burritos and Area 120 startups. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 04-25-2016

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Financial Review

Something in the Water

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-17-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSStocks turn positive. A big water problem that won’t be resolved. Brazil has the most fascinating corruption.

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Financial Review

When Doves Fly

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-16-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFOMC Day and the Fed turns dovish.

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Financial Review

Honey for Bears

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-08-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 02-08-2016 DOW – 177 = 16,027 SPX – 26 = 1853 NAS – 79 = 4283 10 Y – .11 = 1.74% OIL – .80 = 30.09 GOLD + 15.50 = 1190.00   This was just an ugly session from the start. The Dow opened about 200 points down and then trickled lower; at one point down more than 300 points. The S&P 500 index broke down through the key level of support at 1860 that I warned you about in January and again last week, taking out the August 2015 lows and the October 2014 lows. The S&P 500 not only took out support from January, but now we look to minor support at 1815, and then, well there isn’t really any support. In other words, the charts look very dangerous here.   And if you prefer fundamentals over technicals; this is what FactSet had to say in its recent report: “For Q4 2015, the blended earnings decline is -3.8%. If the index reports a decline in earnings for Q4, it will mark the first time the index has seen three consecutive quarters of year-over-year declines in earnings since Q1 2009 through Q3 2009.” The difference this time versus 2009 is that valuations are much higher. FactSet data show expectations for first-quarter per-share earnings have collapsed to a decline of 5.5% as of today. Back in September, that forecast …

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Financial Review

Groundhog Day EP

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-2-02-02-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 20:26 — 9.4MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 02-02-2016 DOW – 295 = 16,153 SPX – 36 = 1903 NAS – 103 = 4516 10 Y – .10 = 1.86% OIL – 1.74 = 29.88 GOLD + 1.00 = 1130.00   A big move for stocks and bonds today. While a 295 point drop, or 1.8%, in the Dow will attract some headlines, we also saw a less flashy move in bonds, with the yield on 10-year Treasuries drop 10 basis points, to 1.86% – that’s a 5.2% drop. After hitting resistance levels from October, yields continued dropping to lows last seen in April.   Stocks moved lower again, following the trail of oil prices, which dropped 5.5% today to close below $30 a barrel. Not a big surprise because the trend has been lower, and a trend in place is more likely to continue than it is to reverse. We are definitely in a downtrend. The S&P 500 is now right at 10% below its May record, which means correction territory, not a  bear market, although many stocks in the S&P are in bear market territory –  specifically the energy stocks.  The rally last week looks like not much more than end-of-month reshuffling, which happened at the same time the Bank of Japan surprised the markets with negative interest rates, but the BOJ can’t announce negative interest rates every day.   Right now, any rally …

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Financial Review

Bon Appetit

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-06-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 01-06-2016 DOW – 252 = 16,906 SPX – 26 = 1990 NAS – 55 = 4835 10 Y – .07 =  2.18% OIL – 1.98 = 33.99 GOLD + 16.30 = 1094.80   Sometimes the world can be a messy place. Global markets get discombobulated. That has been the case in the first few trading days of the year. Saudi Arabia and Iran are about as friendly as cats and dogs, China’s economic growth is grinding slower, and then, in left field, North Korea drops a bomb, or at least tests a bomb, maybe.   North Korea announced that scientists had successfully detonated a hydrogen bomb. The U.S. Geological Survey reported that a magnitude 5.1 earthquake was triggered near North Korea’s nuclear test site in the northeast of the country, but could not confirm that it was related to an H-bomb test.   China’s central bank set the yuan’s reference rate at an unexpectedly weak level, a reminder of the shock depreciation in August that sparked a wave of financial-market turmoil. Chinese media said that last summer’s selling ban on major shareholders would remain in place until the government publishes new rules on such sales.  The Shanghai Composite Index jumped 2.3 percent. Emerging-market stocks dropped to a six-year low and developing-nation currencies declined versus the dollar, while shares in Europe resumed losses after closing higher on Tuesday. Investors are …

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Financial Review

Slip Sliding Away

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-12-09-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 12-09-2015 DOW – 75 = 17,492 SPX – 15 – 2047 NAS – 75 = 5022 10 YR YLD – .03 = 2.21% OIL – .28 = 37.24 GOLD – 2.10 = 1073.50 Stocks started the day in positive territory but then slipped, and the decline coincided with a drop in oil prices, which also went from positive to negative. Oil prices have buckled following the breakdown of OPEC talks last week. We have a price war breaking out between Saudi Arabia and Iran and US shale producers. At the same time we have Russia, Venezuela, and Brazil all desperate for oil revenues.   But it’s not just oil; iron ore is moving in lockstep with oil, dropping to a 10-year low; Codelco, the Saudi Arabia of copper is refusing to cut output, betting it can outlast rivals and win market share. The major commodity indices have dropped to lows last seen in 1998.  While plummeting commodity prices can be a warning sign that the world economy is heading into recession, the latest sell-off has a different character. The slump is chiefly due to excess production, and amounts to a positive supply shock that should boost global recovery.     Dow Chemical and DuPont are in talks to combine, in what would be one of the largest deals of the year. Each company has a market value of about …

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Financial Review

Good to be King

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-12-08-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 12-08-2015 DOW – 162 = 17,568 SPX – 13 = 2063 NAS – 3 = 5098 10 YR YLD + .02 = 2.24% OIL – .08 = 37.57 GOLD + 3.40 = 1075.60   Back to back triple digit losses for the Dow and much of the carnage can be traced to the energy sector and the drop in oil prices. The problem is not just that many energy related companies might suffer losses, but that many of those companies carry big debt loads. Oil prices actually closed above the lows for the day. There was probably profit-taking by some of the shorts and bargain-hunting by those that think we’re going to rise for at least a little bit. Short-term gains in no way negate the bearish implications from this weekend’s OPEC meeting.   OPEC had a collective target of 30 million barrels a day since 2012 but they have been cheating on quotas and producing about 5% more. The important point is that OPEC is no longer the only game on the planet. Most of the global market doesn’t have any ceiling on production. Americans don’t have any ceiling. Russians don’t have any ceiling. Iran has been partially locked out of the global markets and they look to come back with a boatload of supply next month. And the Saudis are fighting a war in Yemen and their national budget …

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Financial Review

Thoughts on Oil

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-12-07-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review with Sinclair Noe for 12-07-2015 DOW -117 = 17,730 SPX – 14 = 2077 NAS – 40 = 5101 10 YR YLD – .07 = 2.20% OIL – 2.37 = 37.60 GOLD – 15.10 = 1072.20   Crude prices fell again in the first trading session after OPEC said over the weekend that it would maintain production at the current levels and made no decision on a new target ceiling. An oil glut has cut prices by more than 60% since June 2014. Abandoning an official output ceiling effectively codifies what OPEC has already done for the past year: ignore its previous target of 30 million barrels a day. The cartel produced 31.4 million barrels per day in October. Indonesia also rejoined OPEC on Friday (after being inactive since 2008), boosting the group’s participants to 13 members. Oil prices today dropped to levels last seen in 2009.   There has been an ongoing battle between OPEC and US shale producers with each side pumping massive amounts of oil in the hopes the other would cut production once crude became too cheap. The world isn’t going quite the way Saudi Arabia expected when it led OPEC to declare a pricing war against US shale drillers last year by flooding the market with crude oil. Far from being a quick kill, shale drillers have stubbornly held on, and OPEC has suffered along with them. Cheap …

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Financial Review

What Puzzle?

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-20-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-20-2015 DOW + 91 = 17,823 SPX + 7 = 2089 NAS + 31 = 5104 10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.26% OIL – .15 = 40.39 GOLD – 4.80 = 1078.00 SILV – .16 = 14.23     The S&P gained 3.3% for the week, its best showing since December. The Dow rose 3.4% for the week and the Nasdaq added 3.6%. And now we begin the Santa Claus rally on Wall Street, which kicks off with the Turkey Shoot. For 35 years prior to 1987, the Wednesday before and the Friday after Thanksgiving combined were up 33 times. The only declines were in 1964 and 1965. Subsequently, this trend changed. In the 28 years since 1987, there have been 12 declines and 16 advances. As Thanksgiving bullishness lost steam in 1987, the rally afterwards occurred more frequently. Since 1987, DJIA has logged gains in 22 of 28 years from the close on Friday after Thanksgiving to yearend. The S&P 500 is up 0.5% in November and 1.5% thus far in 2015. There are 28 trading days remaining in 2015.  And going back to 1950, December is the best month of the year for the S&P 500 with the final 30 days of a year producing a mean gain of 2.36%. There could still be a black swan or some other exogenous event. This does not …

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Financial Review

Slow Motion Domino

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-10-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:17 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-10-2015 DOW + 27 = 17,758 SPX + 3 = 2081 NAS – 12 = 5083 10 YR YLD – .02 = 2.32% OIL + .22 = 44.09 GOLD – 2.50 = 1090.40 SILV – .14 = 14.54   Crude prices are set for a slow recovery, according to the latest report from the International Energy Agency, which warned against the deep investment cutbacks in the industry. In its World Energy Outlook, the IEA’s central scenario for oil prices forecast that the market would rebalance at around $50 to $80 per barrel in 2020, (a not very precise guess) “with further increases in price thereafter.” It also predicted that collectively, the U.S., EU and Japan would see their oil demand drop by around 10 million barrels a day by 2040.   Oil production from the Bakken and Eagle Ford shale plays in the U.S. has been falling since March. Total oil output from seven major U.S. shale regions is expected to fall by 118,000 barrels a day to about 4.95 million barrels a day in December. There is no evidence at current prices that rig drilling activity will recover any time this year, so we can expect ever lower production every month well into 2016. That doesn’t mean a quick increase in prices, in part because Iranian oil is expected to come online as sanctions are lifted, and also …

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Financial Review

A Twisted Duck

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-04-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-04-2015 DOW – 50 = 17,867 SPX – 7 = 2102 NAS – 2 = 5142 10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.23% OIL – 1.38 = 46.52 GOLD – 9.70 = 1108.50 SILV – .20 = 15.16   Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen testified before the House Financial Services Committee today. Yellen reiterated that the Fed could raise its benchmark interest rate in December; she said a rate hike “could be appropriate”; the economy is “performing well”; she expects economic growth to continue; the Fed is inclined to raise rates; however, “no decision has been made.”   Many of the Fed’s immediate concerns have come and gone without catastrophe. The global financial markets are slogging along, and Congress managed to pass a budget and raise the debt ceiling. So, there are only a couple of potential impediments between now and a December rate hike. First is the Friday jobs report; if the payroll growth is in line with expectations, or a bit better, and if that report can be followed with another solid jobs report in early December; plus no stumbles on the GDP numbers, plus some hint of inflation, then Yellen says, “December would be a live possibility.”   We could also draw up a list of reasons why the Fed might want to wait: persistent long-term unemployment, weak growth in third quarter GDP, no signs …

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