Financial Review

Flip Flop Fedspeak

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-18-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 02-18-2016 DOW – 40 = 16,413 SPX – 8 = 1917 NAS – 46 = 4487 10 Y – .06 = 1.76% OIL – .12 = 30.54 GOLD + 22.30 = 1231.70 After spending 2015 calling for rate hikes St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said Wednesday evening in a speech on monetary policy that it would be unwise for the Federal Reserve to continue raising interest rates given declining inflation expectations and recent equity market volatility. Bullard, who is a voting member of the Fed’s rate-setting committee this year, said he now feels key assumptions supporting higher rates have been undermined. Bullard’s big concern is inflation expectations, and inflation has been trending lower, and Bullard believes stock market expectations have a big impact on inflation. In contrast to Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen or Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer, Bullard doesn’t think labor market conditions have much impact on inflation as the traditional “Phillips curve” suggests.   Today, San Francisco Fed President John Williams gave a speech in LA, where he said the economy “is, all in all, looking pretty good.” Williams said his views of the economy haven’t changed much from December: “When I look at my December forecast and compare it with my outlook for unemployment and core inflation today, there’s virtually no change” Williams said he was aware of potential risks facing the economy but …

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Financial Review

Been to the Mountaintop

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-15-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 01-15-2016 DOW – 390 = 15,988 SPX – 41 = 1880 NAS – 126 = 4488 10 Y – .07 = 2.03% OIL – 1.52 = 29.68 GOLD + 10.30 = 1089.80   Let’s start with the good news: US stock and bond markets are closed Monday for the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday.   For the day the Dow dropped 2.4%, the S&P 500 dropped 2.1%, and the Nasdaq lost 2.75%. And even though it was a volatile week, almost all of the damage for the week came in today’s session. The Dow Industrials did take out the September lows but not the August lows of 15,370. The Nasdaq composite knocked out the closing low from August but not the intra-day August low. The S&P 500 hit an intra-day low of 1857, dropping below the August 24th low of 1867. So we should wait for confirmation of a close below 1867 – at which point we have wiped out any reasonable support. The Russell 2000 small-cap index dropped as much as 3.5 percent to its lowest level since July 2013. The major S&P sectors all ended sharply lower. The energy sector dropped 2.87 percent as oil prices fell but the tech sector was the big loser, down 3.1%, with Intel down 9% following a weak earnings report after the close yesterday.   It’s a sea of red all …

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Financial Review

The Question

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-05-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 01-05-2016   DOW + 9 = 17,158 SPX + 4 = 2016 NAS – 11 = 4891 10 Y un= 2.25% OIL – .87 = 35.89 GOLD + 3.10 = 1078.50 The Dow Jones Industrial Average had its greatest opening-day loss since 2008 yesterday. Today might be considered a tepid recovery, or maybe just a reminder that the world did not end with the change of the calendar.   China moved to shore up shaky investor sentiment today following an equities selloff that rocked global financial markets on revived concerns about the country’s economic slowdown. China’s CSI 300 Index initially dropped 2%, but a late session rally erased losses and the index closed 0.3 percent. State-controlled funds bought equities and the securities regulator signaled that a selling ban for major investors which was due to expire this week may be extended. The People’s Bank of China pumped nearly $20 billion into the economy, the largest amount since September. The yuan rebounded from a five-year low.  The Nikkei 225-share index in Japan finished the day 0.4 percent lower. The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong closed 0.7 percent down. European stocks rose, with the FTSE 100 in London up 0.7 percent for the day. The Euro Stoxx 50 index rose 0.4 percent.   Kuwait recalled its ambassador from Iran. The announcement is the latest in an unfolding regional row that escalated with Saudi Arabia’s execution of a Shiite …

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Financial Review

Zilch COLA

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-15-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-15-2015 DOW + 217 = 17,141 SPX + 29 = 2023 NAS + 87 = 4870 10 YR YLD + .04 = 2.20% OIL + .28 = 46.92 GOLD – .90 = 1184.40 SILV un = 16.22   The consumer price index, or prices at the retail level, declined by a seasonally adjusted 0.2% in September. Over the past 12 months inflation at the consumer level has shown zero increase. Inflation has fallen sharply over the past year mainly because of lower gasoline prices. The cost of gasoline fell 9% in September. The cost of food, however, rose 0.4% owing largely to higher prices for dairy, fruits and vegetables. Stripping out food and energy, the core CPI rose 0.2%. Core prices are up 1.9% over the past 12 months. Separately, the Energy Information Administration reports crude inventories rose by 7.6 million barrels in the last week, compared with analysts’ expectations for an increase of 2.8 million barrels.   Americans who collect Social Security won’t get an increase in their monthly checks in 2016. Annual increases in Social Security are made every year based on changes in a component of the consumer price index known as CPI-W. That index fell 0.4% in the period used by the government to calculate the annual increase in cost-of-living adjustments.   The CPI-W looks at prices for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers; …

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Financial Review

Discretionary Reading

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-19-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-19-2015 DOW – 162 = 17,348 SPX – 17 = 2079 NAS – 40 = 5019 10 YR YLD – .07 = 2.13% OIL – 2.02 = 40.60 GOLD + 16.60 = 1135.10 SILV + .44 = 15.41   A new CPI report this morning shows inflation remains muted. The consumer price index, a measure of prices at the retail level, rose 0.1% in July to mark the smallest increase in three months. Yet the cost of housing, the largest expense for most Americans, continued to rise, up 0.4% last month, reflecting the biggest gain in more than eight years. And housing expenses have climbed 3.1% in the past 12 months, the largest annual increase since 2008. The prices of most other consumer goods were little changed in July. Food prices climbed 0.2% while energy prices rose a smaller 0.1%. Excluding food and energy, so-called core consumer prices also advanced 0.1% in July. Aside from shelter, prices for clothes and medical care also rose.   Even though energy prices were up slightly in July, that might not last; eventually the price at the pump for gasoline should reflect the price of oil, which has now dropped to a 6 year low of $40.60 per barrel. Based upon historical pricing for oil and gas, we should be paying about $2.00 to $2.10 a gallon at the pump. Gas prices …

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Financial Review

Dog Day Advance

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-17-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-17-2015 DOW + 67 = 17,545 SPX + 10 = 2102 NAS + 43 = 5091 10 YR YLD – .05 = 2.15% OIL – .62 = 41.88 GOLD + 3.70 = 1118.40 SILV + .07 = 15.42   A reading of New York-area manufacturing conditions fell in August. The Empire State general business conditions index nose-dived to a reading of negative 14.9, from positive 3.9 in July, marking the worst level since April 2009.   The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo housing market index rose 1 point to 61, marking the highest level since Nov. 2005. Any reading above 50 indicates “good” conditions. NAHB says the report is consistent with their forecast for a gradual strengthening of the single-family housing sector in 2015.   Japan’s economy contracted in Q2 as overseas demand for Japanese goods slumped and households spent less, raising the possibility the government will act to support the country’s weak recovery. GDP shrank 1.6% on an annualized basis in the April-June quarter.   The yuan started the week on stable footing after the People’s Bank of China set the currency’s daily reference rate at 6.39 per dollar – in line with Friday’s close. The move signals Beijing is willing to cede more control to market forces, following last week’s record devaluation that saw the currency plunge 3.6%. Shanghai +0.7%. Shenzhen +1%.   Rounding up support for Greece’s fresh aid package, German …

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Financial Review

A Short Week

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-26-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 190 = 18,041 SPX – 21 = 2104 NAS – 56 = 5032 10 YR YLD – .08 = 2.14% OIL – 1.37 = 58.35 GOLD – 18.10 = 1188.80 SILV – .35 = 16.82   The S&P/Case-Shiller Home price index shows prices for existing homes rose in March. Both the 10- and 20-City Composites increased significantly, reporting 0.8% and 0.9% month-over-month increases, respectively. Both the 10-City and 20-City Composites saw year-over-year increases in March. The 10-City Composite gained 4.7% year-over-year, while the 20-City Composite gained 5.0% year-over-year.  Phoenix saw prices increase 0.6% in March,

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Financial Review

Ongoing Criminal Enterprises

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-20-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair noe DOW – 26 = 18,285 SPX – 1 = 2125 NAS + 1 = 5071 10 YR YLD – .01 = 2.25% OIL + .77 = 58.76 GOLD + 1.80 = 1210.80 SILV un = 17.18   April 29 and 30 the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee met to determine monetary policy; today, they published the minutes of that meeting. There were no surprises. Policymakers have no plans to increase interest rate targets in June. We all knew that. Officials in April “had increased uncertainty regarding the economic outlook,” the minutes showed. They had no good reason to explain why consumer spending was so weak.  “Most” Fed officials think the dramatic slowdown in growth in the first quarter was transitory and that a moderate rebound would resume in the second quarter. Inflation was also expected to move higher.  The international context isn’t helpful to the US economy. Fed officials deem “foreign economic and financial developments” as constituting “potential downside risks,” and they specifically mention Greece and China. Moreover, despite its recent partial retracement, the dollar’s appreciation is “likely to continue to be a factor restraining US net exports and economic growth for a time.”   This suggests that they see a rate hike coming sometime later this year. Only a “few” on the U.S. central bank questioned whether the Fed was providing enough stimulus for the economy at the …

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Financial Review

Inmates Run the Asylum

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-15-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 20 = 18,272 SPX + 1 = 2122 NAS – 2 = 5048 10 YR YLD – .10 = 2.14% OIL – .01 = 59.87   The S&P 500 index hit a record high close for the second day in a row. The S&P added 0.3 percent this week for its first back-to-back weekly gain in more than a month. The Nasdaq posted a small gain for the week.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained about 0.4 percent for the week. The Dow is close to another record. The old record is 18,288 from March 2.   So, to see if this little rally has legs, we can look at the Dow Jones Transportation Index, because according to Dow Theory, if the industrials are performing, they have to ship their products to market, so the Dow Transports should confirm any move by the Industrials. We are not getting confirmation. Transports topped out in November, and then there were 4 failed attempts to break through the high of 9310. And since March, the Transports have been consolidating lower. Now this doesn’t mean that the Industrials can’t hit a new record on Monday; after all the index is within spitting distance of the old record; but if the rally has legs, we would need to see Transports exhibit some signs of life. When we see a divergence, the we …

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Financial Review

Hot Fun in the Summertime

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-11-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 85 = 18,105 SPX – 10 = 2105 NAS – 9 = 4993 10 YR YLD + .12 = 2.27 OIL – .10 = 59.29 GOLD – 4.00 = 1184.50 SILV – .13 = 16.38   The S&P 500 Index went up to 2117.69, it sat there for a couple of seconds then fell; the reason this is important, or not, is because 2117.69 is the record high from April 24; also, last Friday, the S&P hit 2117.66 for an intraday high. It has been at or near this level several times in the past 3 months, but it can’t break through. Meanwhile, about $100 million in options on the VIX changed hands at 12:16:04 this afternoon; that’s a little more than a half day’s normal volume in a split second. The VIX is the Volatility Index. Just over 1 million contracts were traded. The trades were spread among four contracts that pay off at different dates and prices, say if the VIX rises to 17 by June or 23 by July. We don’t know who made the trade, but somebody is betting things will get hot this summer.   On Friday, the Jobs Report showed the economy added 223,000 jobs and the unemployment rate dropped to 5.4%. We’ll get more information on the labor market tomorrow with the JOLT survey, which takes a look at job …

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