Financial Review

The Lights Are On

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-03-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 85 = 18,203 SPX – 9 = 2107 NAS – 28 = 4979 10 YR YLD + .04 = 2.12% OIL + 1.00 = 50.59 GOLD – 2.40 = 1204.50 SILV – .13 = 16.33   Just a few economic reports today.   Corelogic reports home prices jumped 1.1% in January to take the year-over-year gain to 5.7%. CoreLogic said 27 states and the District of Columbia are at or within 10% of their peak.   The Thomson Reuters/PayNet Small Business Lending Index fell to 120.9 from an upwardly revised December reading of 133.5.  Small businesses cut back on borrowing. Cold weather may be part of the reason.   Car companies reported February sales figures. Ford Motor sales dropped 2%. Ford was projected to report a 5.8% increase in sales but deliveries of F-Series pickups, Escape sport-utility vehicles and Fusion family cars all declined last month. General Motors sales rose 4.2 percent but they still fell short of estimates as sales of light trucks rose and sedans fell. Toyota, Fiat Chrysler, Honda and Nissan all reported deliveries that increased less than analysts had estimated. Industry-wide, the annualized selling rate, adjusted for seasonal trends, rose to 16.2 million cars and light trucks, from a 15.4 million pace a year earlier.   Chief executives of large U.S. companies see the economy accelerating modestly in 2015. According the Business Roundtable’s first-quarter survey …

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Financial Review

Justice Delayed is Par for the Course

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-18-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:17 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 17 = 18,029 SPX – 0.66 = 2099 NAS + 7 = 4906 10 YR YLD – .08 = 2.06% OIL – 2.56 = 50.97   The S&P 500 closed above 2,100 for the first time ever on Tuesday, delivering year-end target goals to Goldman Sachs, Credit Suisse and Barclays nearly 11 months early.   Greece confirms that it plans to submit a request to the euro zone tomorrow to extend a “loan agreement” for up to six months, but EU paymaster Germany says Athens must stick to the terms of its existing international bailout. Greece wants to maintain a budget surplus before interest payments equal to 1.5 percent of gross domestic product; the current plan calls for a budget surplus equal to 4.5 percent of GDP. It’s still unclear what the terms of the extension will look like, as both Athens and its creditors seem determined not to compromise over the loan’s conditions.   The Federal Reserve released minutes from the January 27-28 Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The minutes reveal that “Many participants indicated that their assessment of the balance of risks associated with the timing of the beginning of policy normalization had inclined them toward keeping the federal funds rate at its effective lower bound for a longer time.” Allow me to translate; the Fed would like to put off raising interest rates because the economy is …

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Financial Review

HSBC – Too Big To Jail

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-09-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:18 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 95 = 17,729 SPX – 8 = 2046 NAS – 18 = 4726 10 YR YLD + .02 = 1.95% OIL + .90 = 52.59 GOLD + 5.40 = 1239.70 SILV + .28 = 17.07 Let’s start with oil; OPEC lowered its estimate for non-OPEC supply growth this year by about 400,000 barrels a day, the biggest reduction since the forecast was introduced in August. The US led with a cut of 130,000 barrels a day while estimates for Colombia, Canada and Yemen were also trimmed. The group said it may boost global demand forecasts beyond this month’s slight increase amid rising U.S. gasoline use.   OPEC’s research department said: “The main factors for the lower growth prediction in 2015 are price expectations, a declining number of active rigs in North America, a decrease in drilling permits in the US and a reduction in the 2015 spending plans of international oil companies.”   The United Steelworkers strike continues with walkouts at two of BP’s refineries over the weekend. The strike now encompasses more than 5,000 workers at 11 refineries across the country, which account for about 13% of U.S. fuel-making capacity. Facility owners also hit by the strike include Shell, Tesoro, Marathon Petroleum and LyondellBasell.   Cheap gasoline prices have increased 13 cents in the past two weeks to $2.20 a gallon, nationwide average; but not everybody is buying the …

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Financial Review

Theories on Apples and Applesauce

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-16-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 190 = 17,511 SPX + 26 = 2019 NAS + 63 = 4634 10 YR YLD + .04 = 1.81% OIL + 2.32 = 48.57 GOLD + 17.70 = 1281.30 SILV + .83 = 17.88 Stocks bounced back after five sessions of losses. All 10 of the S&P 500 sectors were higher, though energy led the charge, rising 2.8%. U.S. crude oil futures settled up 5% after the International Energy Agency said there were signs that lower prices had begun to curb production in some areas. On the week, oil rose 0.7%, snapping a seven-week losing streak. The IEA report said that the market’s floor was still anybody’s guess, but “the sell-off is having an impact,” and “A price recovery – barring any major disruption – may not be imminent, but signs are mounting that the tide will turn. We love lower gas prices. A gauge of consumer sentiment jumped up to an 11 year high this month. The preliminary January reading on the University of Michigan’s consumer-sentiment index increased to 98.2, the highest level since January 2004, from a final December reading of 93.6. Also, more households were reporting increases in household incomes. Consumer inflation in December saw the biggest monthly drop in six years. Consumer prices, the CPI, fell 0.4% in December. You know the big driver for lower prices; energy prices plunged 4.7% in December, …

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Financial Review

Say Cheese

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-15-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:17 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 106 = 17,320 SPX – 18 = 1992 NAS – 68 = 4570 10 YR YLD – .06 = 1.77% OIL – 2.28 = 46.20 GOLD + 33.50 = 1263.60 SILV + .11 = 17.06 After going through all of 2014 without a losing streak of more than three days, the S&P 500 today completed its second slide of five straight days. The benchmark gauge is down 3.4 percent over the past five days. For the past 3 years the Swiss have kept their currency, the Swiss franc, from getting too strong; they imposed a cap to keep the euro from trading below 1.20 francs. In early 2010 one franc was less than 0.7 euro. By the middle of 2011 the franc was nearly at parity against the euro, a massive move in a very short period. As the Eurozone experienced economic strife, Switzerland was calm and offered a safe haven. As money poured in, the franc became more and more expensive; which means that things made in Switzerland became more expensive when the Swiss exported. So, they capped the franc. That basically involved printing more francs and buying more euros. Fast forward to 2015, and the Eurozone is once again experiencing economic strife; money is once again pouring into Switzerland as a safe haven, and after 3 years the Swiss just threw up their hands and said …

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Financial Review

Something is Rotten

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-12-12-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 315 = 17,280 SPX – 33 = 2002 NAS – 54 = 4653 10 YR YLD – .08 = 2.10% OIL – 2.52 = 57.43 GOLD – 5.60 = 1222.80 SILV – .06 = 17.14 The fall in oil prices has been dramatic, now down almost 47% since June. Nobody was expecting it would fall that far that fast. Goldman was forecasting $85 oil for 2015 as recently as October 29. Crude-oil futures fell to their lowest since May 2009 on Friday, briefly dropping below $57 a barrel, after the International Energy Agency delivered the latest reduction in forecasts for global oil demand. On the week, oil futures have lost slightly more than 12%. So, oil is a bit oversold right here but it is never a good idea to try to catch a falling knife. And the whole drop just tells us that something is rotten in the markets. The fundamentals of oil have not changed in concert with the price. We don’t have double the oil we had in June. So why is the price cut in half? I know that’s overly simplistic, but either the market is too negative on energy, or it is not diligent enough in thinking about broader implications. Low prices lead to oil being left in the ground. Low oil prices lead to debt defaults. Low oil prices can lead to …

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Financial Review

Divergence

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-12-09-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 51 = 17,801 SPX – 0.49 = 2059 NAS + 25 = 4766 10 YR YLD – .04 = 2.22% OIL + .80 = 63.85 GOLD + 27.80 = 1233.00 SILV + .73 = 17.21 We’ll start with economic news. The Labor Department reports there were 4.83 million job openings in October, up from 4.69 million job openings in September. The number of available jobs means workers are more likely to leave their current jobs in search of a better deal. The quit rate, the share of total employees opting to quit their jobs was 1.9% in October, roughly the same level it was just before 2007. With 9 million unemployed people in October, there were about 1.9 potential job seekers per opening. In October 2013, there were 11.14 million unemployed people or about 2.8 potential seekers per opening. The Commerce Department reports wholesale inventories increased 0.4%, despite an energy price-related decline in the value of petroleum stocks. September’s wholesale stocks were revised up to show a 0.4% gain. This might indicate that third quarter GDP could be revised slightly higher. The National Federation of Independent Business says small-business sentiment reached a seven-year high in November. The index rose 2 points to 98.1, the highest level since Feb. 2007, as expectations for business conditions in six months surged and expectations for real sales volumes also gained. While stocks …

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Financial Review

Test Results Are In

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-24-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 7 = 17,817 SPX + 5 = 2069 NAS + 41 = 4754 10 YR YLD – .01 = 2.31% OIL – .81 = 75.70 GOLD – 3.80 = 1199.30 SILV + .02 = 16.57 The S&P 500 has gained 11% since bottoming out in a slump that stretched from mid-September to mid-October. The rally has been driven by a belief that central bank actions in Europe, China and Japan will help invigorate global economic growth. On Friday, China’s central bank lowered a key interest rate and European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said he was willing to step up the bank’s efforts to stimulate the Eurozone, which has been struggling. Speaking of European investors that sell assets to the ECB moving into other, more risky, assets that would help accelerate the euro area’s growth, Draghi said that higher prices for European assets might encourage some foreign holders to switch away from the euro, with “investors rebalancing portfolios away from euro-denominated assets towards other jurisdictions and currencies providing higher yields.” Just to make sure that listeners got the message, he added there was evidence that the asset-purchase programs of the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan “led to a significant depreciation of their respective exchange rates, even in a situation in which long-term yields were already very low, as in Japan.” You have been warned; the …

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Financial Review

Catch a Falling Star

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-12-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:20 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW – 2 = 17,612 SPX – 1 = 2038 NAS + 14 = 4675 10 YR YLD un = 2.36% OIL – 1.19 = 76.75 GOLD – 2.80 = 1161.10 SILV – .04 = 15.76 Stocks have been on a run lately, with the Dow Industrials and the S&P 500 hitting record highs yesterday, and the Dow Transports closing at a new high today. Yesterday, the S&P 500 marked its 40th new closing high of the year, versus 45 in 2013. The last five-day streak of record highs was in May 2013, and the next longest was eight days in June 1997. The Dow also hit a record yesterday, marking 6 consecutive record highs, its longest since June. The S&P 500 has closed above its 5 day moving average for the 19th consecutive session, a streak that has only occurred seven times in the past 20 years. And today did not reverse the trend. Typically, after a rally like this you might expect a pullback; not necessarily a correction, but a pullback; a pause to catch your breath. And so, now would not look like a good time to buy, but you also haven’t seen a signal to sell, at least not yet. Meanwhile, the advance has been so straight and fast that it hasn’t left any support levels in its wake. You might look at S&P 2000 as a round number, …

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Financial Review

Behind the Curtain

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-16-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW – 24 = 16,117 SPX + 0.27 = 1862 NAS + 2 = 4217 10 YR YLD + .06 = 2.15% OIL + 1.16 = 82.94 GOLD – 2.20 = 1239.90 SILV – .08 = 17.47 The Dow is down for a sixth consecutive session. We started the morning down almost 200 points, so there is that. Part of yesterday’s volatility is being blamed on mini-flash crashes; 179 to be precise. Basically the high frequency traders yank their bids, as their algorithms try to catch up with big moves. It isn’t really a flash crash so much as a lack of liquidity. Take a deep breath. Think about how you are invested. Consider whether you are diversified across asset classes. The market has not collapsed. It has gone down in a fairly fast and furious manner, but it has not collapsed. What will happen next? Will the market bounce back? Will it go sideways? Will the pullback continue and become really painful? You don’t know; I don’t know; the market doesn’t know; nobody knows. Take a deep breath, consider where you are and where you want to be in the future. The stock market is always a gamble. Maybe you want to gamble with a part of your money, and that’s fine. Maybe you are tired of gambling and want to find something safer; that’s cool, too. Just understand what you’re doing. …

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