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Thrusday, January 16, 2014 – The “It Could Be Worse” Victory Lap

The “It Could Be Worse” Victory Lap by Sinclair Noe DOW – 64 = 16,417SPX – 2 = 1845NAS + 3 = 421810 YR YLD – .04 = 2.84%OIL – .07 = 94.10GOLD + .70 = 1243.70SILV – .11 = 20.20 The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell for the second consecutive week last week; down 2,000 to 326,000. This might suggest that the December jobs report, which was a weak 74,000 jobs added, maybe that report was just a temporary slowdown. In a separate report, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank said its business activity index rose to 9.4 points this month from 6.4 in December. Any reading above zero indicates manufacturing expansion in the region. In another report, the Labor Department said its Consumer Price Index increased 0.3% after being flat in November. In the 12 months to December, consumer prices accelerated 1.5%. A 3.1% increase in gasoline prices was mostly behind the spike in inflation last month. The increase in gasoline was the largest since June and followed a 1.6% fall in November. Food prices rose 0.1% for a third month. There is no wage inflation. Average hourly earnings adjusted for inflation fell 0.3% in December; and with the weakness in the labor market, there is very little chance of wage growth for quite some time. The Fed targets 2 percent inflation, although it tracks a gauge that tends to run a bit below CPI. And outgoing Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke says inflation is …

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Friday, October 18, 2013 – Biscuits on the Dark Side of the Moon

Biscuits on the Dark Side of the Moon by Sinclair Noe DOW + 28 = 15,399SPX + 11 = 1744NAS + 51 = 391410 YR YLD un = 2.59%OIL + .28 = 101.15GOLD – 2.70 = 1318.40SILV + .07 = 22.06 There will be a lunar eclipse a little later this hour. In the West we won’t see it, but you can phone your friends in the East. Maybe it explains something. The S&P 500 index hit another all time record close. Tobias Levkovich is the chief US equity strategist for Citigroup, and he may have had the best analysis of post-deal state of the markets: “Kicking the proverbial can down the street does not address the long-term fiscal imbalances. The twin decisions of a taper timing push out and the discord in Washington being swept under the rug until January and February roll in could keep P/E multiples more compressed as equity risk premiums stay elevated. Investors typically do not like uncertainty and it is hard to determine how these recent almost non-decisions can be seen as reinvigorating confidence aside from some relief that an imminent likely disaster has been avoided. Nonetheless, one cannot respectably believe that things truly have turned for the better as opposed to averting the worst. The long-term growth of non-discretionary government spending can still prove to be an overwhelming liability and it has not been the primary focus for legislators.” Larry Summers will not be the next Federal Reserve Chairman, and maybe that gives …

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Thursday, August 01, 2013 – From Russia With Love

From Russia With Love by Sinclair Noe DOW + 128 = 15,628SPX + 21 = 1706NAS + 49 = 367510 YR YLD + .13 = 2.72%OIL – .08 = 107.81GOLD – 14.30 = 1309.90SILV – .18 = 19.73 Record highs for the Dow and the S&P 500 indices. Economic data today from the Institute for Supply Management; its index of national factory activity rose to 55.4 last month from 50.9 in June, with increases in new orders and production. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector, which hit a soft patch in the spring. The pick-up in manufacturing was also corroborated by financial data firm Markit, which said its U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index rose to a four-month high in its final July reading. Measures of factory jobs rose in both reports, with the ISM employment index reaching its highest since June last year. The improvement in employment is in line with a separate report from the Labor Department showing initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 19,000 to a seasonally adjusted 326,000 last week, the lowest since January 2008. In another report, consultants Challenger, Gray & Christmas said planned layoffs at U.S. firms fell 4.2 percent in July. Tomorrow morning we’ll get the government’s monthly jobs report. The government is expected to report nonfarm payrolls increased 185,000 last month after rising 195,000 in June. And the unemployment rate might inch down to 7.5%. Overall job gains in the second quarter averaged 196,300 per month. A federal court …

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Wednesday, July 24, 2013 – The Showdown

The Showdown by Sinclair Noe DOW – 25 = 15,542SPX – 6 = 1685NAS + 0.33 = 3579 10 YR YLD + .07 = 2.58%OIL + .09 = 107.00GOLD – 26.10 = 1322.60SILV – .34 = 20.25 No new records today. No milk and cookies, just the crumbs.  A federal bankruptcy judge has cleared the way for Detroit’s bankruptcy case to go forward without legal challenges. The decision by Judge Steven Rhodes of United States Bankruptcy Court freezes all litigation against the city during the bankruptcy process and consolidates state-level legal challenges to Detroit’s Chapter 9 filing into the federal bankruptcy case. The federal bankruptcy court has “exclusive jurisdiction” over the case, he said, adding, “There is no case law that holds otherwise.” The judge was attempting to put to rest a legal spat that began almost immediately after Detroit filed for BK last week. On Friday a state judge ruled that the filing violated the state Constitution, which protects the pensions of retired public employees. The city has been expected to seek reductions in pensions in bankruptcy court as part of its broader efforts to reduce Detroit’s estimated $18 billion in debts and other obligations. Today, Judge Rhodes approved a motion by the city’s emergency financial manager, Kevyn Orr, to freeze all litigation against the city during the bankruptcy process. The move effectively gives Judge Rhodes the authority to rule on the issues raised by retired public employees regarding their pensions. Remember Meredith Whitney? She’s the financial analyst who …

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Monday, July 15, 2013 – Lazy Days of Summer

Lazy Days of Summer by Sinclair Noe DOW + 19 = 15484SPX + 2 = 1682NAS + 7 = 360710 YR YLD – .04 = 2.55%OIL + .52 = 106.47GOLD – 1.60 = 1284.20SILV + .01 = 20.03 On a quiet Monday in the middle of the summer, in the middle of July, stocks pulled out modest gains today, but it was good enough for another record for the Dow Industrials and the S&P 500. The S&P posted its 8th consecutive advance. The Nasdaq 100 posted its 14th consecutive advance. Volume was light, the slowest trading session of any full trading day this year. So, this record setting rally is looking a little long in the tooth. The Commerce Department reports retail sales rose a seasonally adjusted 0.4% last month, that was less than expected. Let’s break it down: Sales got a big lift in June from the auto industry, with purchases up 1.8%. That’s the biggest gain since last November. Gasoline sales, meanwhile, climbed 0.7% on a seasonally adjusted basis.  Sales also rose for home-furnishings, pharmaceuticals, personal care, clothes and hobby items. Sales fell 2.2% at home-improvement stores, by 1.2% at bars and restaurants and by 1% at department stores. The auto sector generates about one-fifth of all retail spending. Excluding autos, sales were unchanged. So, here’s what is happening; the price of gas is going up; people are trading in their old gas guzzlers for more fuel efficient cars; the savings on gas pay for the newer car. …

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Hamlet Dies by Sinclair Noe Record Highs for Dow and S&P. DOW + 169 = 15,460SPX + 22 = 1675NAS + 57 = 357810 YR YLD – .10 = 2.57%OIL – 1.92 = 104.60GOLD + 22.70 = 1286.60SILV + .69 = 20.25 To taper or not to taper? That is the question. Whether ’tis nobler in the mind to suffer the slings and arrows of outrageous bond market feral hogs or to feed the savage beasts with unending securities purchases. Or to tighten against a Sea of non-existent inflationary troubles And by opposing end them: to die, to sleep, to slaughter the feral hogs at the Discount Window trough; and end the thousand Natural shocks that markets are heir to? Is that all? To taper, to tighten, perchance to Dream; Aye, there’s the rub. For one is QE and the other is accommodative monetary policy, while fiscal policy and structural reforms are nothing more than ephemeral motions, the stuff of what dreams may come, When we have shuffled off this mortal coil. Well, that’s enough of our literary mosh pit for today. As I recall, Hamlet died. The FOMC minutes released by the Fed yesterday, were much ado about nothing… sorry. There was a bunch of talk that boiled down to the basic idea that Quantitative Easing and interest rates are two separate policies. The FOMC bigwigs have no intention of raising the interest rate target; that is off limits. The securities purchases under QE will taper off at some …

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Friday, May 24, 2013 – Where the Puck Will Be

Where the Puck Will Be by Sinclair Noe DOW + 8 = 15,303SPX – 0.91 = 1649NAS – 0.27 = 345910 YR YLD – .01 = 2.01%OIL – .38 = 93.87GOLD – 5.20 = 1387.30SILV – .24 = 22.39 The S&P 500 is now down for 3 consecutive days and the major stock indices posted their first negative week in more than a month. For the week, the Dow slipped 0.3 percent, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq each lost 1.1 percent. The Federal Reserve left many people mildly dazed and slightly confused this week, what with Bernanke speaking before the Joint Economic Committee and the release of the FOMC minutes. It used to be easier to figure out the Fed; it was a fairly straightforward cost/benefit analysis of inflation versus employment and inflation was usually at the top of the list. Then all of the sudden financial instability suddenly became the main concern. So, people were rethinking monetary policy; probably thinking too much. I don’t think the Fed is ready to step away from its easy money policies, but they are likely to change the composition. Maybe a little less mortgage-backed securities purchases and a little more Zero Interest Rates; maybe they’ll look toward some other areas altogether. How about jumping into the Muni-bond market? Or something else that might be a bit more direct? Maybe the Fed could make some direct injections of capital for infrastructure. America has dropped in the World Economic Forum’s global rankings of economic …

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Monday, April 15, 2013 – Have a Great Day

Have a Great Day by Sinclair Noe DOW – 265 = 14,599SPX – 36 = 1552NAS – 78 = 321610 YR YLD – .02 = 1.70% OIL – 3.97 = 87.32GOLD – 124.40 = 1353.40SILV – 3.16 = 22.79 I hope you’re well. I hope you’re day has been blessed, because in many ways this has been a lousy day, and the stock market was just a minor part of it. There has been another act of violence, possibly a terrorist bombing; this time in Boston. Two bombs exploded near the finish line of the Boston Marathon; about a half hour later, another bomb exploded near the JFK Library. Boston Police confirm there were a couple more explosive devices that were found and defused. It looks like three people are dead and more than 100 injured, some very seriously, including about a dozen people who have lost limbs. The blasts took place about four hours after the start of the race, which meant that there were still several thousand runners yet to finish the race. The first two bombs exploded just before 3PM Eastern, one after another, and within about 100 yards of each other, very near the finish line of the marathon race. There have been unconfirmed reports that a suspect is in custody, possibly a Saudi national, but clearly it is an ongoing investigation at this time. It’s tax day of course. I hope that doesn’t come as a surprise. File now, file an extension, file anything, except …

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Tuesday, March 26, 2013 – Miles to Go

Miles to Go by Sinclair Noe DOW + 111 = 14,559SPX + 12 = 1563NAS + 17 = 3252 10 YR YLD – .01 = 1.91OIL + 1.40 = 96.21GOLD – 5.90 = 1600.50SILV – .09 = 28.86 The Dow Industrial hit a record hit close today, taking out the March 14 closing high. The S&P 500 came within a couple of points of the high close; it is having a hard time breaking through the ceiling; you just have to content yourself with the idea that the index has more than doubled from the lows of March 2009. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, which measures the cost of using options as insurance against declines, fell 7.1 percent to 12.77. The gauge has tumbled 29 percent for the year. It is a reflection of complacency. We have many things to cover today. Home prices were up in January and the year over year improvement in prices was the fastest in 6 years. The S&P Case Shiller Index of existing home sales was up 0.1% in January, and the year over year gains were 8.1%. On a year-over-year basis, all 20 cities measured by the Case-Shiller index improved, led by a 23.2% surge in Phoenix, with New York bringing up the rear with a 0.6% advance. Sales of new U.S. homes fell 4.6% in February to mark the biggest drop in two years, though poor weather likely played a big role. Sales slowed to an annual rate of 411,000, …

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Wednesday, March 20, 2013 – Not Today

Mark your Calendar, April 5 & 6 and make your reservations for the 2013 Wealth Protection Conference in Tempe, AZ. For conference information visit www.buysilvernow.comor click hereor call 480-820-5877. This year’s conference features Roger Weigand, Nathan Liles, David Smith, Mark Liebovit, Arch Crawford, Ian McAvity, Bill Tatro, and I will speak on Friday. There is an expanded Q&A session with all speakers on Saturday. I hope you can attend.  Not Today by Sinclair Noe DOW + 55 = 14,511SPX + 10 = 1558NAS + 25 = 325410 YR YLD +.03 = 1.94%OIL + 1.14 = 93.30GOLD – 6.10 = 1607.70SILV – .09 = 28.92 Looking back, we all remember the crisis of 2008, money markets broke the buck, Bear Stearns bombed as Cramer cried buy, buy, buy; Lehman imploded; and Hank Paulson scribbled a 3 page note and begged, literally begged Nancy Pelosi on bended knee to bailout the banksters. And then in 2009, the strangest thing happened. The stock market bottomed and started moving higher. There were challenges along the way, here’s a partial list: the Latvian financial crisis, the Dubai debt crisis (those were both in 2009), the flash crash in 2010, the Greek crisis and the first bailout in May 2010, Ireland crisis in November 2010, the Arab Spring actually started in December 2010, the war in Libya in February 2011, the Japanese tsunami was just 2 years ago, the Portuguese debt crisis, the US credit downgrade in the summer of 2011, the Spanish bailout in June …

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