Financial Review

Corporate Clout

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-01-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 77 = 17,698 SPX – 8 = 2059 NAS – 20 = 4880 10 YR YLD – .06 = 1.87% OIL + 2.49 = 50.09 GOLD + 20.40 = 1204.10 SILV + .30 = 17.04   The first quarter is done; Among the winners: the S&P 500 pulled out a modest gain for the ninth consecutive winning quarter; healthcare was the best performing sector in the S&P 500, up 7.4%; utilities were the biggest decliners in the index, down 5.8%. The Nasdaq Composite posted its ninth consecutive quarterly gain (the first time ever). The Dow Industrials posted a small loss year to date. Oil dropped just over 14% for the quarter. The first quarter’s best-performing exchange-traded products include China, Japan, and solar. The first quarter’s worst-performing exchange-traded products include plays on Brazilian stocks, coffee and volatility.   In many ways, the dollar set the tone across markets in the first three months of the year. The dollar index, hit a 12-year high during the quarter. The strong dollar, or at least the pace of its rise, played havoc with earnings of large multinationals who rely heavily on foreign sales. Meanwhile, commodity markets also saw pressure from a stronger dollar.   Treasuries saw price gains in the first quarter. The yield on the 10 year note dropped from 2.17% to 1.93%. The total return in the Treasury market overall, including price …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Anti-Austerity Gets Wind in Sails

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-02-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 12:46 — 5.8MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 196 = 17,361 SPX + 25 = 2020 NAS + 41 = 4676 10 YR YLD – .01 = 1.67% OIL + 1.59 = 49.83 GOLD – 9.30 = 1274.80 SILV – .05 = 17.28 Americans cut spending in December by the largest amount since 2009; we knew spending on energy would be lower but consumers did not rush out and spend the money. Household savings from lower energy costs, were partly offset in December by higher spending on drugs, health care and housing. These expenses continue to eat up a large portion of American incomes. Incomes posted another solid gain and falling inflation is allowing Americans to get more bang for their buck. Personal spending fell a seasonally adjusted 0.3% last month. Personal income, meanwhile, rose 0.3%. Since income growth outpaced spending, the amount of money individuals save jumped to 4.9% from 4.3% to mark the highest level since midsummer. The Commerce Department reports construction spending rose 0.4% in December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate $982.1 billion, led by public spending. Private-construction spending rose 0.1% in December, with a 0.3% increase for residential projects and a 0.2% decline for nonresidential projects. Meanwhile, public-construction spending rose 1.1% in December. The ISM Manufacturing Report for January dropped from 55.1 to 53.5. Any reading above 50 indicates the manufacturing sector is expanding, just not as fast. Germany’s Angela …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Oil and Implications

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-12-02-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 102 = 17,879 SPX + 13 = 2066 NAS + 28 = 4755 10 YR YLD + .07 = 2.29% OIL – 1.48 = 67.52 GOLD – 14.30 = 1199.50 SILV un = 16.57 Record highs on Wall Street. The day’s gains were broad, with nine of the 10 S&P 500 industry sectors higher. The only group to fall was telecoms. I think this is the 32nd record high for the Dow this year; pretty soon we’ll be counting them in dozens. Records for the bond market as well. US corporate bond sales for 2014 have topped $1.5 trillion, setting a new annual record, as borrowers lock in low rates. According to Lipper, investors have poured money into corporate investment-grade funds for 24 straight weeks, with inflows of $880 million for the week ending Nov. 26. Borrowers have offered $1.168 trillion of investment-grade notes in 2014 and $344 billion of junk bonds. Yields on corporate bonds in the U.S. fell to 3.57 percent in June and have since risen to 3.86 percent yesterday. So, record highs for equities, record issuance for corporate bonds; the story line is that this is a good place to be, and when you look abroad, it makes sense. Yesterday, Moody’s Investors Service cut Japan’s credit rating to A1. Japan is in a recession after a sales tax increase in April destroyed consumer …

READ MORE →
Financial Review

Mangled Expectations

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-03-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW – 24 = 17,366 SPX – 0.24 = 2017 NAS + 8 = 4638 10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.35% OIL – 2.03 = 78.39 GOLD – 7.60 = 1166.30 SILV – .03 = 16.25 No milk and cookies today, however the Dow and S&P hit intraday record highs. Construction spending fell 0.4% in September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $950 billion. Spending fell 0.6% for nonresidential projects and dropped 1.3% for public construction projects, but rose 0.4% for residential projects. The National Association of Realtors reports first-time buyers’ share of home sales has hit a 27 year low of just 33%; normally it would be closer to 40%. The final reading of Markit’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index was 55.9 in October, down from the flash reading of 56.2 and well below September’s 57.9. The Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing index jumped to 59% from 56.6% in the prior month; new orders, production, and the employment gauge all moved higher. Last week the Federal Reserve officially ended the Quantitative Easing plan, which has been around in various forms for about 5 years. The dollar reached multi-year highs against both the yen and euro; last week the Bank of Japan announced a surprise stimulus plan, called QQE2; on that news the stock markets hit a new high on Friday and global markets rallied. This week the European …

READ MORE →
Uncategorized

A Raft of Reports by Sinclair Noe DOW + 136 = 13,232SPX + 15 = 1427NAS + 42 = 302010 YR YLD +.03 = 1.71%OIL +.65 = 88.48GOLD – 5.20 = 1716.00SILV un = 32.26 We have a drove of economic data to cover today; a mass of intelligence; a flock of facts; a legion of lowdowns; a swarm of information; and we’ll sort through the stories and try to make sense of it all. Of course, tomorrow we’ll get the big report on the monthly jobs picture for October. Friday’s jobs report is expected to show non-farm employers added just 125,000 jobs last month – not enough to prevent the jobless rate from rising a tenth of a point to 7.9 percent. The unemployment rate fell to a near four-year low in September at 7.8%. Today, we heard some hints about tomorrow’s non-farm labor report. Automatic Data Processing, the payroll processor, always releases their report prior to the government’s report. The ADP report is not a particularly good indicator of the BLS report. ADP shows private employers added 158,000 workers last month. There is some evidence of labor market improvement. It is not totally convincing yet but overall the message is positive. Weekly initial unemployment claims declined to 363,000 for the week ending October 27, down 9,000 from the previous week. Unemployment claims topped out over 650,000 back in the first quarter of 2009 and have been moving mostly sideways this year, but are near the cycle bottom. Don’t …

READ MORE →