Financial Review

Another Strong Jobs Report

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-12-04-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 12-04-2015 DOW + 369 = 17,847 SPX + 42 = 2091 NAS + 104 = 5142 10 YR YLD – .05 = 2.28% OIL – 1.01 = 40.07 GOLD + 25.30 = 1087.90   The economy added 211,000 jobs last month, beating estimates of about 200,000. The unemployment rate held steady at 5% as more workers entered the labor pool. The Labor Force Participation Rate increased in November to 62.5%, from 62.4% in October. The last two months’ jobs numbers were revised higher. The government said 298,000 new jobs were created in October instead of 271,000. September’s gain was raised to 145,000 from 137,000. Over the past 12 months, the economy has added 2.64 million jobs.   Let’s break down jobs by sector: Employment in construction rose by 46,000 in November, with much of the increase occurring in residential specialty trade contractors (+26,000). Over the past year, construction employment has grown by 259,000. Professional and technical services added 28,000 jobs. Over the year, professional and technical services has added 298,000 jobs. Health care employment increased by 24,000 over the month, following a large gain in October (+51,000). In November, hospitals added 13,000 jobs. Health care employment has grown by 470,000 over the year. Employment in food services and drinking places continued to trend up in November (+32,000) and has risen by 374,000 over the year. Retail trades added …

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Financial Review

April Jobs Report in Moderation

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-08-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 267 = 18,191 SPX + 28 = 2116 NAS + 58 = 5003 10 YR YLD – .03 = 2.15% OIL + .49 = 59.43 GOLD SILV   The economy added 223,000 new jobs in April. The unemployment rate dropped to 5.4% from 5.5% to mark the lowest level since mid-2008. The results were fairly close to estimates. Not too much, not too little. Wall Street actually liked the “Goldilocks” report and the Dow jumped to triple digit gains; the bond market, which is usually only happy when it rains saw strong initial selling, but then pushed bond yields slightly lower, and the dollar spiked briefly then held near lower levels. Once again we are reminded that the jobs report is probably the single most important economic report to follow because it affects almost everything else in the economy.   The number of jobs added in March was revised down to 85,000 from 126,000, reflecting the smallest increase in almost three years. The February jobs report was revised higher by 2,000 from 264,000 to 266,000. Payrolls for February and March were revised down by a combined 39,000. Typically, revisions add to prior months numbers. In 2014, for example, the government upgraded every monthly employment report except for one to show stronger job creation that originally estimated. The past three months have delivered average job gains of just …

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Financial Review

Wednesday, May 28, 2014 – Reflecting the Economy

Reflecting the Economy by Sinclair Noe   DOW – 42 = 16,633 SPX – 2 = 1909 NAS – 11 = 4225 10 YR YLD – .08 = 2.43% OIL – 1.03 = 103.08 GOLD = 4.70 = 1259.60 SILV – .01 = 19.13   The major stock market indices were lower, but it wasn’t a big move, and we’ve been 4 up days, so today’s pullback was nothing but a pause. What was interesting today was the move in the bond market. The yield on the 10 year treasury dropped all the way to 2.43%; that’s the lowest rate in almost a year. The 10 year treasury has dropped 22 basis points this month, meaning treasuries are on track for the best month since January. Now, remember that the Federal Reserve is supposed to be tapering, cutting back on large scale purchases of treasury bonds.   What’s fueling the move? It’s hard to pinpoint one thing. Europe is facing some sort of monetary stimulus package from the ECB next week; meanwhile, a report showed German unemployment rose and that pushed yields on the 10 year bund to 1.28%; that trade then spilled over to the US markets, toss in end of month window dressing and there was likely a short squeeze. There are some big short positions on treasuries right now; more shorts than longs.   At the end of the day, the bond market is supposed to reflect the economy; not an exact image but rather a mirror …

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Uncategorized

Friday, January 10, 2014 – Jobs Report Friday

Jobs Report Friday by Sinclair Noe DOW – 7 = 16,437SPX + 4 = 1842NAS + 18 = 417410 YR YLD – .10 = 2.86%OIL + 1.23 = 92.89GOLD + 20.90 = 1248.60SILV + .63 = 20.27 Jobs report Friday. The US economy created only 74,000 net new jobs in December. The number of jobs created was the lowest in 3 years and was well short of expectations for about 195,000 jobs. In the four months before December, the average number of jobs created in the US was 214,000 a month. The Labor Department said 38,000 more jobs in November were created than the 203,000 previously reported. And the unemployment rate dropped from 7% to 6.7%. If that doesn’t seem to add up, you are correct. The headline news that the unemployment rate dropped to 6.7% is not good. The problem is that a bunch of people fell out of the labor force, 347,000, to be exact. They stopped looking for work, which made them no longer “unemployed” in the eyes of the Bureau of Labor Statistics; they just become invisible. The Labor Force Participation Rate dropped from 63% in November to 62.8% in December. This is a measure of the working age population in the labor force. The participation rate is well below the 66% to 67% range that had been considered typical over the past 20 to 30 years. The participation rate has been dropping for the past 12 years. Part of the reason for the drop in …

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