Financial Review

Barn Cleaning

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-27-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-27-2015 DOW – 41 = 17,581 SPX – 5 = 2065 NAS – 4 = 5030 10 YR YLD – .03 = 2.03% OIL – .78 = 43.20 GOLD + 4.10 = 1168.00 SILV + .03 = 15.97   Congressional leaders have reached a tentative budget deal with the White House in a breakthrough that would set government funding levels for the next two years and extend the nation’s debt limit through 2017. The bill would raise the spending caps set in place in 2011 that would result in deep cuts to both defense and non-defense spending, called sequestration.  This deal would provide $80 billion in sequester relief.   The bipartisan agreement would include long-term entitlement reforms to the Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) program, the first major reform to Social Security since 1983.  The Social Security Disability Insurance program would be amended, in part to tighten and standardize eligibility requirements that now vary by state. That change was projected to save the government $5 billion. It also prevents a spike in Medicare B premiums for millions of seniors. The increases would have been caused by the rare absence of a cost-of-living increase in Social Security benefits, because of unusually low inflation.   The deal still needs Congressional approval, but for outgoing House Speaker John Boehner this was a matter of wrapping up unfinished business before his departure, …

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Financial Review

Shoddy Excuse for a Market

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-25-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-25-2015 DOW – 204 = 15,666 SPX – 25 = 1867 NAS – 19 = 4506 10 YR YLD + .14 = 2.13% OIL + 1.07 = 39.31 GOLD – 14.50 = 1141.40 SILV .10 = 14.80   Leading Asian markets fell again with the Shanghai Composite Index closing with a 7.6% loss and the Nikkei down 4.0%, while other key Asian markets closed with milder losses and Hong Kong ended up in positive territory. European markets were broadly higher, led by the first rise in the FTSE 100 in 11 sessions; the FTSE closed up over 3%; the Euro Stoxx 50 closed up 4.7 percent.   China’s stock market has dropped 22% in the past 4 sessions. Today, their central bank responded by cutting interest rates for one-year lending by 25 basis points to 4.6%, while the one-year deposit rate will fall a quarter of a percentage point to 1.75 percent. The required reserve ratio will be lowered by 50 basis points for all banks to cover funding gaps. China’s surprise yuan devaluation on Aug. 11 led to a tightening in liquidity as the PBOC subsequently bought its currency to stabilize the exchange rate and curb capital outflows. Roughly $4.5 trillion has evaporated from the Chinese markets since the middle of June – real, tangible wealth that no longer exists. Equities on mainland Chinese exchanges still trade at …

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Financial Review

A Short Week

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-26-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 190 = 18,041 SPX – 21 = 2104 NAS – 56 = 5032 10 YR YLD – .08 = 2.14% OIL – 1.37 = 58.35 GOLD – 18.10 = 1188.80 SILV – .35 = 16.82   The S&P/Case-Shiller Home price index shows prices for existing homes rose in March. Both the 10- and 20-City Composites increased significantly, reporting 0.8% and 0.9% month-over-month increases, respectively. Both the 10-City and 20-City Composites saw year-over-year increases in March. The 10-City Composite gained 4.7% year-over-year, while the 20-City Composite gained 5.0% year-over-year.  Phoenix saw prices increase 0.6% in March,

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Financial Review

Trending

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-28-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 72 = 18,110 SPX + 5 = 2114 NAS – 4 = 5055 10 YR YLD + .05 = 1.97% OIL – .06 = 56.93 GOLD + 10.10 =  1212.80 SILV + .21 = 16.71   House prices picked up in February, rising 0.5%, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city composite index. After seasonal adjustments, home prices rose 0.9% in February, matching January’s gain. Compared with February 2014, prices for the 20-city index were up 5%, the fastest growth in half a year. Home prices in Phoenix gained 0.3% for the month and 2.9% for the 12 month period.   The Commerce Department reports home ownership slipped to a 25 year low of 63.8% in the first quarter. The home ownership rate peaked at 69.4% in 2004. Household formation increased by 1.5 million in the first quarter. More people, starting more households, but they aren’t buying homes. With many Americans still showing an aversion to homeownership, the gains in household formation largely are being driven by renters.   Consumer confidence declined in April to a four-month low as Americans’ views of the labor market and the outlook on the economy deteriorated. The Conference Board’s index dropped to 95.2 from a revised 101.4 reading in March. The report showed fewer respondents said jobs were plentiful in April and income expectations cooled, signaling consumers will remain guarded about spending. The …

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Financial Review

Fixing the Unbroken

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-31-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS  Financial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 200 = 17,776 SPX – 18 = 2067 NAS – 46 = 4900 10 YR YLD – .03 = 1.93% OIL – 1.15 = 47.53 GOLD – 2.30 = 1183.70 SILV – .06 = 16.73   The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index showed steady gains in January, up 0.9% from December. Compared to January 2014, prices were up 4.6%.  In Phoenix, resale home prices were unchanged from December to January, and posted a year-over-year gain of 2.6%.   The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index moved up to 101.3% in March from an upwardly revised 98.8 in February. The present situation index, a measure of current conditions, actually fell to 109.1 from 112.1. Yet the future expectations index increased to 96.0 from 90.   We’ve seen quite a bit of volatility in the markets lately. Today marks the 16 session in the month of March where the Dow Industrial Average has closed with a change in excess of 100 points. That is the second most of any month in history; following 20 triple digit moves in October 2008.   Sell in May and go away. You’ve probably heard this stock market advice. The idea is that you can divide the year into the best six months and the worst six months for the stock market; and we are now heading into the worst six months. Like most …

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Financial Review

Faster and Faster but No Liftoff

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-25-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 2 = 17,814 SPX – 2 = 2067 NAS+ 3 = 4758 10 YR YLD – .05 = 2.26% OIL – 1.95 = 74.22 GOLD + 2.90 = 1202.20 SILV + .20 = 16.77 The major stock indices couldn’t close at records, but Apple reached a milestone today. Apple’s market capitalization hit a record $700 billion; that’s double from 3 years ago when Tim Cook became CEO. Apple is the first S&P 500 company to ever reach a $700 billion market cap. Yet, on an inflation-adjusted basis, it still has way to go to be the most valuable company of all time. Microsoft’s market cap peak of $613 billion in 1999 translates to nearly $874 billion in 2014 dollars. When Microsoft was at the top, it was trading at 72 times earnings. Apple’s price-to-earnings ratio is currently 18, in line with the overall S&P. It’s a little tough to imagine what Apple will do in the future to match the growth they’ve experienced in the past. The economy is better than you thought. The Commerce Department revised its estimate of third quarter gross domestic product from 3.5% up to 3.9%. There will be another revision before settling on a final number. Second quarter GDP came in at a 4.6% growth rate; combined second and third quarter GDP was the strongest back to back growth since 2003. Let’s …

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Financial Review

Sprinting Up a Mountain

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-14-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW – 18 = 17634 SPX + 0.49 = 2039.82 NAS + 8 = 4688 10 YR YLD – .02 = 2.32% OIL + 1.74 = 75.95 GOLD + 26.40 = 1189.30 SILV + .64 = 16.41 The recent rally in the S&P 500 has been really, really strong. Today marked the 41st record high close for the S&P. In mid-September, the index dropped, and that continued until October 16th. On October 17th we told you about a bullish reversal pattern, and since then the S&P 500 has gained about 160 points. The S&P 500 has traded above its 5 day moving average for 21 consecutive sessions; this is unusual; it means the rally has been extremely strong and nearly non-stop; there were a couple of days where the index paused, but never really went down. The past 21 days resulted in a 12% gain; that’s like a runner sprinting up a mountain. The market is now extremely overbought. Typically, when the market is overbought, you might anticipate a pullback. We haven’t seen it yet, but we can anticipate and wait for the market to show us. There are plenty of reasons to think the stock market will continue higher. First reason is that it is in an uptrend right now; a trend in place is more likely to continue than it is to reverse. Another reason is that there is a …

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Financial Review

The Brute Economic Power of Oil

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE_SEG_1-09-12-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW – 61 = 16,987 SPX – 11 = 1985 NAS – 24 = 4567 10 YR YLD + .08 = 2.61% OIL – .58 = 92.25 GOLD – 11.90 = 1229.30 SILV – .06 = 18.71 For the week, the Dow was down 0.9%, the S&P 500 was down 1.1% and the Nasdaq was down 0.3%. Let’s start with the economic data: Business inventories rose 0.4 percent in July vs a 0.8% rise in business sales that keeps the stock-to-sales ratio unchanged at a healthy and lean 1.29. In a separate report, retail sales and consumer sentiment pointed at an improving economy. The preliminary September reading on the University of Michigan/Thomson Reuters consumer-sentiment index rose to the highest level since July 2013 and topped consensus expectations. Sales at US retailers rose in August by the largest amount since April, sales were up 0.6%; raising confidence in the economic outlook for the second half of the year. Retail sales would have been higher, but the price of gas dropped; after excluding gasoline, spending rose 0.7% in August. Of course, one of the reasons Americans spent more money going out and eating and shopping is because the price of gasoline has been low. Spending at gas stations declined an estimated 0.8% in August. That followed a flat July and another 0.8% drop in June. A separate report from the Labor Department on Friday …

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Financial Review

The Terror Threat Level is Flashing Magenta

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-29-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS08292014 FINANCIAL REVIEW LISTEN HERE DOW + 18 = 17,089 SPX + 6 = 2003 (record) NAS + 22 = 4580 10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.34% OIL + 1.30 = 95.85 GOLD – 2.00 = 1288.20 SILV – .02 = 19.56 The S&P 500 set another record high close, the 32nd of the year. The S&P 500 gained 3.8% for the month, representing the benchmark’s best August performance since 2000. The S&P 500 also achieved its largest monthly percentage jump since February, when it rose 4.3%. The Dow and S&P have posted gains for four weeks in a row. For the week, the S&P 500 tacked on nearly 0.8%. The Dow scored advances of 0.6% for the week and 3.2% for the month, while the Nasdaq climbed 0.9% for the week and 4.8% for August. Don’t forget that August saw rates on the 100 year Treasury note drop from 2.55% to 2.34%. And oil prices had dropped from 98.15 a barrel to 95.85. It’s always tricky to say “this time it’s different”, but it is. Remember, back in 2000? The Nasdaq was trading right about where it is now, but back then, people were quitting their day jobs to become day traders; the market was irrationally exuberant. Not so much anymore. People are skeptical; they don’t’ trust the market and they don’t trust the rally. And distrust is healthy, at least for …

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Financial Review

A Few Old Sayings

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-26-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS08262014 DOW + 29 = 17,106 SPX + 2 = 2000.02 (record) NAS + 13 = 4570 10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.40% OIL + .55 = 93.90 GOLD – .70 = 1280.90 SILV – .08 = 19.38 The S&P 500 notched its 30th record of the year and closed above 2000 for the first time ever. The Dow also rose but fell short of its record closing high after setting an all-time intraday high earlier in the session. There are a few old sayings about the market that seem to fit. The first is, “the trend is you friend”; we have seen a few minor pullbacks since the bottom in 2009, but since the start of 2013 there has been a strong and steady uptrend. “A trend in place is more likely to continue than it is to reverse, until it reverses” and today marked a continuation of the trend, not a reversal. Why is the market going up? Who knows? There are plenty of problems around the world. The US economy looks sluggish, but “stocks climb a wall of worry to march into bullish territory”; that’s a phrase that’s been thrown around for more than 60 years, but was made popular by Joe Granville in the 1980s. Another financial proverb claims “Worry is interest paid on trouble before it falls due.” And the opposite of the “wall of worry” is “Bear …

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