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Tuesday, March 26, 2013 – Miles to Go

Miles to Go by Sinclair Noe DOW + 111 = 14,559SPX + 12 = 1563NAS + 17 = 3252 10 YR YLD – .01 = 1.91OIL + 1.40 = 96.21GOLD – 5.90 = 1600.50SILV – .09 = 28.86 The Dow Industrial hit a record hit close today, taking out the March 14 closing high. The S&P 500 came within a couple of points of the high close; it is having a hard time breaking through the ceiling; you just have to content yourself with the idea that the index has more than doubled from the lows of March 2009. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, which measures the cost of using options as insurance against declines, fell 7.1 percent to 12.77. The gauge has tumbled 29 percent for the year. It is a reflection of complacency. We have many things to cover today. Home prices were up in January and the year over year improvement in prices was the fastest in 6 years. The S&P Case Shiller Index of existing home sales was up 0.1% in January, and the year over year gains were 8.1%. On a year-over-year basis, all 20 cities measured by the Case-Shiller index improved, led by a 23.2% surge in Phoenix, with New York bringing up the rear with a 0.6% advance. Sales of new U.S. homes fell 4.6% in February to mark the biggest drop in two years, though poor weather likely played a big role. Sales slowed to an annual rate of 411,000, …

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Tuesday, January 29, 2013 – Stimulus Truths and Tweaks

Stimulus Truths and Tweaks by Sinclair Noe DOW + 72 = 13,954SPX + 7 = 1507NAS – 0.6 = 315310 YR YLD +.03 = 2.00%OIL + .88 = 97.32GOLD + 9.40 = 1664.90SILV + .54 = 31.48 We have a gaggle of economic reports this week and we’ll try to keep up. The Conference Board reported that its gauge of consumer confidence dropped to 58.6 in January, the lowest level since November 2011. Consumers are more pessimistic about the economic outlook and, in particular, their financial situation. The hike in the payroll tax is taking the brunt of the blame for the less-than-rosy outlook. Disposable income is actually declining. It’s hard to be happy when your purse shrinks. The sales price on existing homes dropped in November according to the S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index, down a non-seasonally adjusted 0.1% decrease in November following a 0.2% decline in October. After seasonal adjustments, the 20-city home-price index rose 0.6% in November. Despite the recent decline, prices were 5.5% higher than during the same period in the prior year, for the strongest year-over-year growth since August 2006. Tomorrow, we’ll get a glimpse of 4thQuarter GDP. The economy likely grew at a 1% pace, which is very weak. Also tomorrow, The Federal Reserve wraps up its first FOMC meeting for the new year. They will likely continue with a fairly aggressive approach to stimulate the economy. In December, the Fed committed to adding $45 billion of monthly Treasury purchases to the existing QE3 program to …

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A Raft of Reports by Sinclair Noe DOW + 136 = 13,232SPX + 15 = 1427NAS + 42 = 302010 YR YLD +.03 = 1.71%OIL +.65 = 88.48GOLD – 5.20 = 1716.00SILV un = 32.26 We have a drove of economic data to cover today; a mass of intelligence; a flock of facts; a legion of lowdowns; a swarm of information; and we’ll sort through the stories and try to make sense of it all. Of course, tomorrow we’ll get the big report on the monthly jobs picture for October. Friday’s jobs report is expected to show non-farm employers added just 125,000 jobs last month – not enough to prevent the jobless rate from rising a tenth of a point to 7.9 percent. The unemployment rate fell to a near four-year low in September at 7.8%. Today, we heard some hints about tomorrow’s non-farm labor report. Automatic Data Processing, the payroll processor, always releases their report prior to the government’s report. The ADP report is not a particularly good indicator of the BLS report. ADP shows private employers added 158,000 workers last month. There is some evidence of labor market improvement. It is not totally convincing yet but overall the message is positive. Weekly initial unemployment claims declined to 363,000 for the week ending October 27, down 9,000 from the previous week. Unemployment claims topped out over 650,000 back in the first quarter of 2009 and have been moving mostly sideways this year, but are near the cycle bottom. Don’t …

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