Financial Review

A Long Week

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-11-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Lock and load for the weekend. A bad week for equities. Consumer prices soft again. Snap & Apron slammed. Starbucks cannibalized. Applebee’s & IHOP shuttered. JCP whacked. Raise Act gets failing grade from Wharton. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-11-2017

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Financial Review

Fed Day

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-14-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Dow hits another record. Fed raises interest rates 25 basis points. Plans to shrink balance sheet. CPI shows inflation stalled. Oil prices fall. Retail sales drop. Business inventories slip. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 06-14-2017

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Financial Review

WWTD?

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-14-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSConsumer prices flat, jobless claims down, big banks earnings not as bad as expected, and Deutsche Bank admits the fix is in. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 04-14-2016

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Financial Review

Just Around the Corner

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-17-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 279 = 17,826 SPX – 23 = 2081 NAS – 75 = 4931 10 YR YLD – .03 = 1.85% OIL – .52 = 56.19 Even though oil prices were down slightly today, oil posted a 12% gain for the past week.   The economy continues to expand and consumers are feeling better. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 95.9 in April, up from 93 in March. Separately, The Conference Board said leading indicators rose 0.2% in March; the leading economic index has been slowing over recent months but it still points to moderate expansion in economic activity.   Consumer prices rose 0.2% in March. Gasoline prices rose 3.9%, which was the biggest jump since February 2013; still, gas prices are about 33% below year-ago levels.  The core-CPI, which excludes energy and food prices, also rose 0.2% due to higher cost of housing and used cars. The cost of clothes, housing, cars, and medical care increased, while food and airfare decreased. Core prices have risen 1.8% in the past year. While the “all-items index” (which includes things like food and energy) declined 0.1% over the last 12 months. Higher inflation would indicate a stronger dollar because it could reinforce the view that the Fed might hike interest rates sooner rather than later.   The Labor Department reports real average hourly earnings for all employees …

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Financial Review

Theories on Apples and Applesauce

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-16-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 190 = 17,511 SPX + 26 = 2019 NAS + 63 = 4634 10 YR YLD + .04 = 1.81% OIL + 2.32 = 48.57 GOLD + 17.70 = 1281.30 SILV + .83 = 17.88 Stocks bounced back after five sessions of losses. All 10 of the S&P 500 sectors were higher, though energy led the charge, rising 2.8%. U.S. crude oil futures settled up 5% after the International Energy Agency said there were signs that lower prices had begun to curb production in some areas. On the week, oil rose 0.7%, snapping a seven-week losing streak. The IEA report said that the market’s floor was still anybody’s guess, but “the sell-off is having an impact,” and “A price recovery – barring any major disruption – may not be imminent, but signs are mounting that the tide will turn. We love lower gas prices. A gauge of consumer sentiment jumped up to an 11 year high this month. The preliminary January reading on the University of Michigan’s consumer-sentiment index increased to 98.2, the highest level since January 2004, from a final December reading of 93.6. Also, more households were reporting increases in household incomes. Consumer inflation in December saw the biggest monthly drop in six years. Consumer prices, the CPI, fell 0.4% in December. You know the big driver for lower prices; energy prices plunged 4.7% in …

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Financial Review

Columbo Fed

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-07-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 212 = 17,584 SPX + 23 = 2025 NAS + 57 = 4650 10 YR YLD – .01 = 1.95% OIL + .59 = 48.52 GOLD – 8.20 = 1212.10 SILV – .02 = 16.63 After the holidays we are finally starting to get back to economic data. Let’s start with the ADP payroll report, which shows 241,000 net new private sector jobs for December. Breaking down that number, private-sector service providers added 194,000 jobs, while goods producers added 46,000 jobs. By company size, small businesses added 106,000 private-sector jobs, large businesses added 54,000 and medium businesses added 70,000. The Labor Department reports on jobs Friday morning and we tend to look to the ADP report as a precursor to the government’s monthly report, but it isn’t a real accurate predictor. Last month the government reported 321,000 new jobs and ADP initially showed 208,000 for November. Still, we are probably looking for around 220,000 to 240,000 new jobs on Friday and today’s report was in line with that estimate. Meanwhile, Gallup has its own Job Creation Index which ended 2014 at plus 27 in December, eight points higher than where it started in January. The index has remained between plus 27 and plus 28 since May; essentially it has remained at the same level for the past eight months, suggesting the job market plateaued in the latter …

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Financial Review

Incredibly Orwellian Record High

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-17-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW + 24 = 17,156 SPX + 2 = 2001 NAS + 9 = 4562 10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.60% OIL – .90 = 93.98 GOLD – 11.70 = 1224.20 SILV – .16 = 18.62 The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a record high of 17,156.85; the first record high for the Dow since July. The Dow set an all-time intraday high of 17,221.11. It was the sixteenth record close for the blue chip index in 2014. The stock market action today was focused on the Federal Reserve. I suppose we could say the same thing about the past 6 years. Today, the Federal Reserve wrapped up its FOMC meeting. The FOMC stands for Federal Open Market Committee, which sounds incredibly Orwellian. The meeting was a rousing success; we know this because the media coverage can’t quite figure out whether the Fed will raise interest rates sooner or later, or whether the economy is weaker or stronger. While the much analyzed phrase “considerable time” remained in the FOMC statement, the newly announced scheme for interest rate normalization shows that higher rates are in the cards. The FOMC also said labor market conditions improved but a significant amount of slack remains. The Fed said it would end the bond-buying program known as quantitative easing in October. The Fed will purchase $15 billion of mortgage and Treasury bonds in October and …

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