Financial Review

The New Norml

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-27-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 34 = 17,712 SPX + 4 = 2061 NAS + 27 = 4891 10 YR YLD – .06 = 1.95% OIL – 3.01 = 48.42 GOLD – 5.70 = 1199.40 SILV – .13 = 17.07   Modest gains on Wall Street today, but not nearly enough to make up for the four previous days of losses. It wound up being the second-worst week for the market so far this year. The Dow Jones industrial average remains down slightly for 2015, and the Standard & Poor’s 500 index is essentially flat. For the week, the S&P 500 fell 2.2 percent, the Dow lost 2.3 percent and the Nasdaq declined 2.7 percent. The semiconductor sector was a leader today after a report that Intel is in talks to buy rival chipmaker Altera. Intel shares were up 6%; Altera shares were up 28%.   Gross domestic product expanded at a 2.2 percent annual rate last quarter. This was the Commerce Department’s third estimate of GDP, and it was unchanged from last month’s estimate.  Economic growth cooled in the fourth quarter and after-tax corporate profits recorded their biggest drop since early 2011, as a strong dollar dented the earnings of multinational corporations. The fourth quarter GDP was down from a very strong third quarter reading of 5% growth. The first estimate on the first quarter will be published April 29th.   Profits originating outside the …

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Financial Review

One Foot on the Gas, One Foot on the Brake

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-30-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 251 = 17,164 SPX – 26 = 1994 NAS – 48 = 4635 10 YR YLD – .08 = 1.67% OIL + 3.25 = 47.78 GOLD + 25.00 = 1284.10 SILV + .31 = 17.33 GDP growth slows. The Commerce Department reports fourth quarter gross domestic product grew by 2.6%, down from a very strong 5% growth rate in the third quarter. The results were below consensus estimates of 3% growth. For all of 2014, the economy grew 2.4% compared to 2.2% in 2013. Consumer spending advanced at a 4.3% pace in the fourth quarter – the fastest since the first quarter of 2006 and an acceleration from the third quarter’s 3.2% pace. The final read on the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index was 98.1, down a tick from the 98.2 in the preliminary estimate. That’s still above the 93.6 mark in December and the best reading in 11 years. Just as consumers were stepping on the gas, businesses were tapping the brakes. Business spending on equipment fell at a 1.9% rate. It was the largest contraction since the second quarter of 2009. The fourth-quarter weakness could reflect cuts or delays to investment projects in the oil industry. But it could also be payback after two back-to-back quarters of robust gains. A wider trade deficit, as slower global growth curbed exports and solid domestic demand sucked …

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Financial Review

Theories on Apples and Applesauce

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-16-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 190 = 17,511 SPX + 26 = 2019 NAS + 63 = 4634 10 YR YLD + .04 = 1.81% OIL + 2.32 = 48.57 GOLD + 17.70 = 1281.30 SILV + .83 = 17.88 Stocks bounced back after five sessions of losses. All 10 of the S&P 500 sectors were higher, though energy led the charge, rising 2.8%. U.S. crude oil futures settled up 5% after the International Energy Agency said there were signs that lower prices had begun to curb production in some areas. On the week, oil rose 0.7%, snapping a seven-week losing streak. The IEA report said that the market’s floor was still anybody’s guess, but “the sell-off is having an impact,” and “A price recovery – barring any major disruption – may not be imminent, but signs are mounting that the tide will turn. We love lower gas prices. A gauge of consumer sentiment jumped up to an 11 year high this month. The preliminary January reading on the University of Michigan’s consumer-sentiment index increased to 98.2, the highest level since January 2004, from a final December reading of 93.6. Also, more households were reporting increases in household incomes. Consumer inflation in December saw the biggest monthly drop in six years. Consumer prices, the CPI, fell 0.4% in December. You know the big driver for lower prices; energy prices plunged 4.7% in …

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Financial Review

Time For Pie

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-26-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 12 = 17,827 SPX + 5 = 2072 NAS + 29 = 4787 10 YR YLD – .03 = 2.23% OIL – .35 = 73.75 GOLD – 3.20 = 1199.00 SILV – .13 = 16.64 Another record high close for the Dow Industrial Average and the S&P 500 index. That’s the 47th record high for the S&P this year. Volume was light, heading into the holiday. The markets will be open for a half day on Friday, but volume will be incredibly light. Yesterday we told you about the New York Fed report that consumers were taking on more debt; household debt increased $78 billion in the third quarter, and the NY Fed thought that meant the end of deleveraging. It was the end of an era. Good news for the economy as well. American households have been cleaning up their finances during the painful post-crisis era, with less debt and lower financing costs for the debts they still owe. They are now in a better position to spend in the years ahead, good for the economy and their own sense of well-being. I said “not so fast”, let’s wait and see if a trend develops. Today, the Commerce Department reports consumer spending increased 0.2 percent last month after being flat in September. Maybe Americans have cleaned up their debt problems, or not, but we aren’t yet …

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Financial Review

Halloween Treats

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-31-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW + 195 = 17,390 SPX + 23 = 2018 NAS + 64 = 4630 10 YR YLD + .03 = 2.33% OIL – .44 = 80.68 GOLD – 25.90 = 1173.90 SILV – .28 = 16.28 Record highs, again. Back on September 19th, the Dow hit a record high close of 17,279. And then we watched the market tumbled for nearly a month. On October 17th we told you about a bullish reversal pattern, and it has been a strong move to new highs; up 1,100 from when I called the reversal, and up 1,545 from the lows of October 15. Also, a new closing high for the S&P 500, however, we did not take out the intraday high of 2019 from September 19. Let’s break down the moves for the month of October. The Dow is up 248. The S&P added 46 points. The Nasdaq is up 137 points for October to a 14-1/2 year high. In October we saw the yield on the 10 year note drop 18 basis points from 2.51%. Gold took a hard fall on Friday, at one point trading at levels not seen since 2010. And of course, a big move in oil down 10.75 a barrel. If you are looking for a really dramatic move, the Russell 2000 index of small cap stocks has bounced from a low of 1046 on October 13, to …

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Financial Review

Third Quarter Wrap

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-30-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW – 28 = 17,042 SPX – 5 = 1972 NAS – 12 = 4493 10 YR YLD + .02 = 2.51% OIL – 3.14 = 91.43 GOLD – 6.30 = 1209.70 SILV – .49 = 17.07 We wrap up the third quarter of 2014. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 3.4% year to date; and it is up about 11% from the lows of February. Ten of the 30 Dow stocks are up more than 10% year to date. Eight of the Dow stocks are in negative territory for the year, even after adding in divdends. The best performing Dow stocks are Intel (up 37% ytd) and Microsoft (up 28% ytd). The worst performing Dow stocks are Boeing (down 5% ytd) and United Technologies (down 6% ytd). The Dow lost 55 points, or 0.3%, for the month, and for the third quarter the Dow added 217 points or 1.3%. The S&P 500 dropped 31 points, or 1.5% in September, and added 12 points for the quarter; and that was good enough for the seventh consecutive quarterly gain, the best run for the S&P 500 since 1998. The Nasdaq Composite lost 87 points, or 1.8%, for the month, but added 85 points for the third quarter. The Russell 2000 index of small cap stocks lost 69 points, or 5.8% in September; and posted a loss of 98 points, or 8.1% for …

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Financial Review

Bond King Exits

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-26-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review DOW + 167 = 17,113 SPX + 16 = 1982 NAS + 45 = 4512 10 YR YLD + .02 = 2.53% OIL + .53 = 91.83 GOLD – 2.50 = 1220.40 SILV + .16 = 17.76 This week proved quite a roller coaster ride for the major indices. The Dow Industrial Average moved by at least 100 points in each of the five sessions, and finished the week down 1%. The S&P 500 climbed above its 50-day moving average today after dropping below the level yesterday for the first time since August. The S&P 500 was 1.4% lower on the week, and the Nasdaq lost 1.5% for the week. The Russell 2000 Index of smaller companies extended its September loss to 5.5 percent yesterday after dropping 6.1 percent in July. The Gross Domestic Product increased at a rate of 4.6 percent in the second quarter, according to third and final revision on GDP; up from the earlier estimate of 4.2% growth, and up from 2.5% growth in the same period a year ago. It represents the fastest rate of growth since the last three months of 2011. Spending on personal consumption increased 2.5 percent in the second quarter, up from 1.2 percent in the first. Durable goods, such as cars, homes and electronics jumped 14.1 percent, compared with an increase of 3.2 percent in the last quarter. The latest revision of …

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Financial Review

Friday, May 30, 2014 – Record Highs, Bonds, Coal Mines

Record Highs, Bonds, Coal Mines by Sinclair Noe   DOW + 18 = 16,717 SPX + 3 = 1923 (another record) NAS – 5 = 4242 (not a record) 10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.45% OIL – .71 =  102.87 GOLD – 4.60 = 1252.30 SILV – .23 = 18.91   For the week, the Dow rose 0.7%, the S&P 500 gained 1.2% and the Nasdaq added 1.4%. For the month of May, the Dow gained 0.8%, the S&P 500 rose 2.1% and the Nasdaq climbed 3.1%. Meanwhile, if you are looking for action, the bond market is the place; the yield on the 10 year note has dropped from 2.65% to 2.45% this month.   Nearly everyone is looking for an explanation as to why longer-term interest rates continue to fall in the face of reduced Fed support and what is being hyped as better economic data. This wasn’t supposed to happen. The Federal Reserve has been propping up Treasury bond prices, and suppressing yields, for the past several years by buying large quantities of bonds each month in an effort to increase investment and consumption, and force investors into riskier assets. To some extent, the Fed’s QE purchases have worked; ultra-low interest rates have supported housing price increases and have led to skyrocketing stock prices.  Household net worth has increased by $25 trillion from the financial-crisis lows in the first quarter of 2009.  However, these gains in net worth have overwhelmingly accrued to the well-to-do while low- …

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Financial Review

Friday, April 25, 2014 – Don’t Hold Your Breath

Don’t Hold your Breathby Sinclair Noe DOW – 140 = 16,361SPX – 15 = 1863NAS – 72 = 407510 YR YLD – .02 = 2.66%OIL – 1.25 = 100.69GOLD + 9.90 = 1304.80SILV + .07 = 19.83 Consumer sentiment rose in April to a nine-month high as views on current and near-term conditions surged. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan’s final April reading on the overall index of consumer sentiment came in at 84.1, up from 80 the month before. Meanwhile, a new Gallup poll shows more Americans are optimistic about the job market this month than at any time since the 2008 financial crisis, with 30% saying now is a good time to find a quality job. That marks a significant improvement from the 8% who said they were optimistic about the job market in 2010, but it’s still a drop from the pre-2008 highs of almost 50%. And even though almost a third of Americans are optimistic, two-thirds still say the job market is lackluster; 66% of Americans say it’s not a good time to hunt for employment. Next week’s economic calendar includes a two day Federal Reserve FOMC meeting. Next Friday, we’ll have a monthly jobs report; the current estimates call for 215,000 net new jobs in April and the unemployment rate dipping to 6.6% from 6.7%. Also, the Commerce Department will release its first guess of first quarter GDP; the consensus estimate on the initial estimate is that the economy grew about 1%. The situation in Ukraine …

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Uncategorized

Friday, March 14, 2014 – The Circle of Life

The Circle of Life by Sinclair Noe DOW – 43 = 16,065SPX – 5 = 1841NAS – 15 = 424510 YR YLD – .01 = 2.64%OIL + .81 = 99.01 GOLD + 10.90 = 1383.00SILV + .29 = 21.56 In economic news, the early-March consumer sentiment index fell to 79.9. That’s down from a final February reading of 81.6 but the latest number is within the range of numbers posted since November. A separate report from the Labor Department shows the producer price index dropped o.1% last month. The PPI measures inflation at the wholesale level. Final demand for goods rose 0.4% in February. Final demand for services dropped 0.3%. Producer prices excluding volatile food and energy costs fell 0.2%. In the 12 months through February, producer prices increased 0.9%, the smallest one-year gain since May 2013. Inflation is not a concern. The economy is still too sluggish to generate inflation. There are two big news stories of the day: Flight 370 and Ukraine. We don’t know anything about either. A total absence of actual information about the missing Malaysian flight is not in any way hindering 24 hour news coverage of the story. Facts have given way to fantastic fantasizing about everything from terrorism to hidden island airstrips to alien abductions. The news networks have been gathering tons of erroneous and conflicting reports which they immediately pass to their viewers. They must think we’re all morons. Secretary of State John Kerry and his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov wrapped up …

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