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Friday, December 7, 2012 – A Date Which Will Live in Infamy, Plus the Jobs Report

A Date Which Will Live in Infamy, Plus the Jobs Report by Sinclair Noe DOW + 81 = 13,155SPX + 4 = 1418 NAS – 11 = 297810 YR YLD +.05 = 1.63%OIL – .27 = 85.99 GOLD + 4.50 = 1704.50SILV + .08 = 33.11 Today marks the 71st anniversary of the attack on Pearl Harbor. There were of course, memorials in Hawaii and around the country. I’ve seen a few of the pictures. Each year the number of Pearl Harbor survivors that attend these memorials, their number grows smaller and their ranks thin. If you know a veteran of World War II, be sure to take time to recognize their stories, be sure to say thanks. Today’s major economic data was the monthly jobs report; widely expected to be weak due to the effects of Hurricane Sandy. Instead, it came in relatively strong. The headline numbers: the economy added 146,000 jobs in November, and the unemployment rate dropped to 7.7%, a four year low. The Labor Department claimed that the effect of Sandy on the report was minimal, saying in a statement, “Our analysis suggests that Hurricane Sandy did not substantively impact the national employment and unemployment estimates for November.” In other words, we should not look at this report as surprisingly good given the effect of the hurricane. Rather, the Labor Department claims that the jobs numbers should be analyzed without taking the storm into account at all. And by that standard, not only were the job …

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Thursday, November 29,2012 – Place Your Bets

Place Your Bets by Sinclair Noe Let’s start with the important numbers today: 5, 16, 22, 23, 29, and the Powerball 6. And I did not win. Somebody in Missouri and somebody in Phoenix are holding the winning tickets. Not me. All I’m holding is a $10 piece of paper which is my donation to the tax fund for the mathematically challenged. DOW + 36 = 13,021SPX + 6 = 1415 NAS + 20 = 301210 YR YLD un = 1.62%OIL + 1.23 = 87.72GOLD + 6.00 = 1726.80SILV + .50 = 34.27 The U.S. economy grew at a 2.7 percent annual rate from July through September, much faster than first thought. The Commerce Department said growth in the third quarter was significantly better than the 2 percent rate estimated a month ago. And it was more than twice the 1.3 percent rate reported for the April-June quarter. The main reason for the upward revision to the gross domestic product was businesses restocked at a faster pace than previously estimated. That offset weaker consumer spending growth. The fourth quarter GDP is expected to drop back down below 2 percent because of Hurricane Sandy, which put the brakes on all sorts of business activity along the East Coast. And then the other reason cited for the possible fourth quarter slowdown is the fiscal cliff. (Sorry, we just can’t get through the day without talking about it.) So, here is the annotated version of today’s fiscal cliff report: a little partisan sniping, …

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Friday, September 28, 2012 – Eat Cake

Eat Cake by Sinclair Noe DOW – 48 = 13,437SPX – 6 = 1440NAS – 20 = 311610 YR YLD un = 1.64%OIL + .25 = 92.10GOLD – 6.50 = 1772.10SILV – .17 = 34.59PLAT + 13.00 = 1669.00 There are bad things and they are bad. There are good things and they are good, even though the bad things are bad. Let me give you an example; You probably know I’m not a fan of the Federal Reserve. I believe there are better ways to conduct monetary policy. This does not mean the Fed’s monetary policy doesn’t work. You’ve heard the old adage, “don’t fight the Fed”. In case you haven’t noticed, the stock market has doubled in the past 3 1/2 years. That’s good, even though the bad things about the Fed remain bad. And the stock market has been performing much better than seems possible. As the third quarter comes to an end you might think about the problems in Europe and the slowdown in China; you might think about the slowdown in the US with the economy growing at an anemic 1.3% pace, the seemingly never ending housing recovery, the interminably high unemployment; and you might think of the looming fiscal cliff and the dysfunctional political bickering as corrosive elements sucking the life blood out of the economy; and you might think the best investment opportunities are in freeze dried foods and concrete bunkers – but no. The stock market has been sweet. The S&P 500 …

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