Financial Review

Groundwork for Fed Minutes

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-16-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSHousing starts up. CPI up. Industrial production up. Is the Fed up for a rate hike? 13-F review – lots of shorts. Aetna quits ACA. EPA standards for trucks. Ford gives up the wheel. Knock, knock. It’s Google.   Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-16-2016 DOW – 84 = 18,552 SPX – 12 = 2178 NAS – 34 = 5227 10 Y + .02 = 1.57% OIL + .84 = 46.58 GOLD + 7.20 = 1346.80 Housing starts ran at a seasonally adjusted 1.21 million annual rate in July, a 2.1% increase over the June figure. Permits were at a 1.15 million annual rate in July, essentially flat from a revised June reading. Single-family starts edged up 0.5% to a 770,000 annual pace. Most of the strength in July came from multifamily starts, which popped 8.3% to a 433,000 annual rate. Overall housing starts are 5.6% higher compared to a year ago, and July’s figure was the second-best of the recovery.   The consumer price index rose 0.8% compared to a year ago. The Labor Department said core CPI, which strips out food and energy, rose 2.2%. The cost of food was unchanged in July, and has risen 0.2% over the past year, the smallest increase since the 12 months ending in March 2010. Energy prices declined 1.6% and are 10.9% lower for the year. (However, today, oil posted its fourth straight session …

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Financial Review

Progress Not Perfection

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-15-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSAnother record, by a hair. Inflation in a disinflationary world. Retail sales up. Industrial production up. Sentiment down. Earnings recession. Herbalife not quite a Ponzi scheme. BP pays. Sheep level view. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 07-15-2016

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Financial Review

Heating Up

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-06-16-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSWall Street rebounds. Global central banks on hold for Brexit. CPI inches higher. Jobless claims inch higher. AZ unemployment rate jumps up. Disneyland Shanghai. VW goes electric. SpaceX falls hard. Microsoft goes to pot. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 06-16-2016

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Financial Review

Illusion of Growth

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-17-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSInflation up, housing starts rebound, 1Q share buybacks at a new high, IMF eases on Greece, robot truckers, and Supremes punt. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 05-17-2016

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Financial Review

When Doves Fly

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-16-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFOMC Day and the Fed turns dovish.

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Financial Review

The I File

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-02-19-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 02-19-2016 DOW – 21 = 16,391 SPX – .05 = 1917 NAS + 16 = 4504 10 Y – .01 = 1.74% OIL – 1.00 = 29.74 GOLD – 4.70 = 1227.00   So, stocks were basically flat today but it was a good week. Big gains on Tuesday and Wednesday lifted the major indexes to their best weekly performances this year, with the Nasdaq gained 3.9% for the week, its strongest week since July. The S&P 500 gained 2.8% for the week.   Crude gained sharply earlier this week as major oil producers proposed a joint production freeze, but investors remain cautious whether the cap will actually materialize and worry about building U.S. crude inventories. Late yesterday the Energy Information Administration said crude stockpiles rose 2.1 million barrels last week, to a peak of 504.1 million barrels in the third week of hitting record highs in the past month. The EIA also cited record high gasoline inventories. Oil and stocks have been trading in lockstep, sort of. Oil down, stocks down. Oil up, stocks up. Not exactly, not a perfect correlation, but stocks can’t seem to get out of the shadow of oil.   In earnings news: Applied Materials posted a strong profit and revenue forecast for the current quarter. Nordstrom shares dropped 6.7 percent after the department store operator’s quarterly profit and revenue missed expectations and they …

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Financial Review

Pick a Lane

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-17-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:17 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-17-2015 DOW + 6 = 17,489 SPX – 2 = 2050 NAS + 1 = 4986 10 YR YLD – .01 = 2.26% OIL – .95 = 40.79 GOLD – 12.30 = 1070.80 SILV – .06 = 14.29   Global equity markets moved higher today, following the rally yesterday on Wall Street and brushed off concerns related to Friday’s terror attacks in Paris. In their final communique from a summit in Turkey, the leaders of the world’s largest economies stuck to a goal of lifting their collective output by an extra 2% by 2018, even though growth remains uneven and weaker than expected globally. G20 leaders also endorsed plans to address Syria’s refugee crisis, taxation, climate change, cyber security and inequality.   France launched another set of airstrikes on the ISIS stronghold of Raqqa in Syria early Tuesday as the country steps up its response to last week’s deadly attacks. The bombings follow a second night of home searches in France and Belgium to catch those responsible and linked to the killings. President Francois Hollande is now looking to expand his powers under France’s state-of-emergency statute and has called on the U.S. and Russia to form a “big unified coalition” to destroy ISIS.   Meanwhile, Russian officials said they had found evidence that the passenger jet that crashed in Egypt last month was downed by a bomb, the first time …

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Financial Review

Zilch COLA

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-15-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-15-2015 DOW + 217 = 17,141 SPX + 29 = 2023 NAS + 87 = 4870 10 YR YLD + .04 = 2.20% OIL + .28 = 46.92 GOLD – .90 = 1184.40 SILV un = 16.22   The consumer price index, or prices at the retail level, declined by a seasonally adjusted 0.2% in September. Over the past 12 months inflation at the consumer level has shown zero increase. Inflation has fallen sharply over the past year mainly because of lower gasoline prices. The cost of gasoline fell 9% in September. The cost of food, however, rose 0.4% owing largely to higher prices for dairy, fruits and vegetables. Stripping out food and energy, the core CPI rose 0.2%. Core prices are up 1.9% over the past 12 months. Separately, the Energy Information Administration reports crude inventories rose by 7.6 million barrels in the last week, compared with analysts’ expectations for an increase of 2.8 million barrels.   Americans who collect Social Security won’t get an increase in their monthly checks in 2016. Annual increases in Social Security are made every year based on changes in a component of the consumer price index known as CPI-W. That index fell 0.4% in the period used by the government to calculate the annual increase in cost-of-living adjustments.   The CPI-W looks at prices for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers; …

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Financial Review

Confidently Waiting

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-14-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-14-2015   DOW – 62 = 16,370 SPX – 8 = 1953 NAS + 26 = 4822 10 YR YLD un = 2.18% OIL – .49 = 44.14 GOLD – .30 = 1109.40 SILV – .21 = 14.51   The story that will be leading markets throughout this week will be Thursday’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision. While market expectations of an increase in rates have fallen to 28 percent, down from over 50 percent a few weeks ago, economists insist the decision is still too close to call. The Fed has been saying they will hike interest rates; this may be one of the most telegraphed rate hikes in the Fed’s history, but circumstances keep changing. Since the last Fed meeting, oil prices have dropped by 15%, the dollar has strengthened, China has slowed, emerging markets have softened, and there is little to no sign of inflation despite a Fed target of 2%. By the way, we’ll get one more report on inflation Wednesday, with the release of the CPI, or consumer price index. So, there are many reasons why the Fed might not raise rates, but then if they do stand pat, they risk coming across as timid, or worried that the recovery is in trouble. If they hike rates they can give the impression they are confident, and confidence begets confidence. And so some clever folks think …

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Financial Review

Discretionary Reading

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-19-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-19-2015 DOW – 162 = 17,348 SPX – 17 = 2079 NAS – 40 = 5019 10 YR YLD – .07 = 2.13% OIL – 2.02 = 40.60 GOLD + 16.60 = 1135.10 SILV + .44 = 15.41   A new CPI report this morning shows inflation remains muted. The consumer price index, a measure of prices at the retail level, rose 0.1% in July to mark the smallest increase in three months. Yet the cost of housing, the largest expense for most Americans, continued to rise, up 0.4% last month, reflecting the biggest gain in more than eight years. And housing expenses have climbed 3.1% in the past 12 months, the largest annual increase since 2008. The prices of most other consumer goods were little changed in July. Food prices climbed 0.2% while energy prices rose a smaller 0.1%. Excluding food and energy, so-called core consumer prices also advanced 0.1% in July. Aside from shelter, prices for clothes and medical care also rose.   Even though energy prices were up slightly in July, that might not last; eventually the price at the pump for gasoline should reflect the price of oil, which has now dropped to a 6 year low of $40.60 per barrel. Based upon historical pricing for oil and gas, we should be paying about $2.00 to $2.10 a gallon at the pump. Gas prices …

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