Financial Review

Groovin

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-07-29-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSS&P record. GDP slumps. BOJ passes and preps for helicopter money. Eurobanks graded on a curve. Earnings good for tech and bad for oil. This ABInBev-SABMiller Bud’s for you. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 07-29-2016

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Financial Review

Days of Wine and Neurosis

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-20-2016.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 01-20-2016 DOW – 249 = 15,766 SPX – 22 = 1859 NAS – 5 = 4471 10 Y – .05 = 1.98% OIL – 1.91 = 26.55 GOLD + 13.70 = 1102.20   I remember a time, long ago and far away, where the stock market soared to record highs and we had celebrations and enjoyed milk and cookies. Today there are no celebrations, and the reward for merely surviving is more like wine and valium, or maybe just a Pepto Bismol smoothie.   Global markets were in full retreat as a relentless slide in oil prices and a weaker world growth outlook from the IMF dealt another blow to investor appetite. Hong Kong shares tumbled to their lowest levels since the depths of the global financial crisis, Japan’s Nikkei entered a bear market and equities everywhere else are deep in the red.   Investors have been looking for safe havens. Yields on U.S. 10-year Treasuries fell below 2.00%, down 29 basis points since the New Year began.   Here’s a quick rundown of global markets: China’s Shanghai Composite down 1%, The Hang Seng in Hong Kong down 4%, Japan’s Nikkei lost 3.7%; in Europe the FTSE 100 down 2.5%, The CAC in France down 2.5%, The Euro Stoxx 50 down 2.3%.   Wall Street looked more like Mr. Toad’s Wild Ride; the Dow Industrials dropped to 15,450, …

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Financial Review

Thoughts on Oil

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-12-07-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review with Sinclair Noe for 12-07-2015 DOW -117 = 17,730 SPX – 14 = 2077 NAS – 40 = 5101 10 YR YLD – .07 = 2.20% OIL – 2.37 = 37.60 GOLD – 15.10 = 1072.20   Crude prices fell again in the first trading session after OPEC said over the weekend that it would maintain production at the current levels and made no decision on a new target ceiling. An oil glut has cut prices by more than 60% since June 2014. Abandoning an official output ceiling effectively codifies what OPEC has already done for the past year: ignore its previous target of 30 million barrels a day. The cartel produced 31.4 million barrels per day in October. Indonesia also rejoined OPEC on Friday (after being inactive since 2008), boosting the group’s participants to 13 members. Oil prices today dropped to levels last seen in 2009.   There has been an ongoing battle between OPEC and US shale producers with each side pumping massive amounts of oil in the hopes the other would cut production once crude became too cheap. The world isn’t going quite the way Saudi Arabia expected when it led OPEC to declare a pricing war against US shale drillers last year by flooding the market with crude oil. Far from being a quick kill, shale drillers have stubbornly held on, and OPEC has suffered along with them. Cheap …

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Financial Review

Two Paths Diverge

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-12-02-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 12-02-2015 DOW – 158 = 17,729 SPX – 23 = 2079 NAS – 33 = 5123 10 YR YLD + .03 = 2.18 OIL – 1.67 = 40.1 GOLD – 15.60 = 1054.20   American businesses stepped up hiring last month, led by strong gains in retail, finance and other service industries. Payroll processor ADP says that private companies added 217,000 jobs last month, the most in five months. Service sector firms added 204,000, while manufacturers hired just 6,000. The figures come just two days before the government issues its official jobs report for November. If the Friday jobs report is anywhere close to today’s ADP report, it might lock in a rate hike at the Fed FOMC meeting in two weeks.   The productivity of American businesses was higher in the third quarter than initially reported — but so were labor costs. Newly revised government figures show that productivity rose at a 2.2% annual rate instead of 1.6%. Unit-labor costs were revised higher to show a 1.8% annual increase in the third quarter, and second quarter costs were revised higher. As a result, the year-over-year increase in labor costs climbed to a 3% rate, the highest level in six quarters. Unit-labor costs reflect how much it costs a business to produce one unit of output, such as a refrigerator or a ton of steel.   The Fed published …

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Financial Review

Show Me the Data

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-12-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-12-2015 DOW – 254 = 17,448 SPX – 29 = 2045 NAS – 61 = 5005 10 YR YLD – .02 = 2.32% OIL – 1.28 = 41.65 GOLD – 1.70 = 1085.50 SILV – .11 = 14.34   Crude oil fell below $42 a barrel, its lowest price since August, while copper, gold and silver reached six-year lows. Energy, mining and metals companies fell. Caterpillar, Exxon Mobil and Chevron had the biggest losses in the Dow Jones Industrial average. The Dow and the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index are now negative for the year.   The Energy Information Administration just released its latest weekly look at the US oil market, and it shows that US crude stockpiles are just 3 million barrels off the record 490 million barrel record in April.  Crude stockpiles grew by 4.2 million barrels last week. A private report released Wednesday had shown an even larger increase. The biggest factors have been a slowdown in demand, and China’s slowdown is a big part of that equation. Meanwhile, oil producers just keep pumping; US shale production has slowed and will likely slow more, even though it remains stubbornly high; OPEC refuses to cut production and the more oil prices fall, the faster they pump.   Prices for copper and other commodities were slumping as investors anticipated that the dollar would become even stronger. The price …

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Financial Review

A Bit Ironic

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-03-25-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 292 = 17,718 SPX – 30 = 2061 NAS – 118 = 4876 10 YR YLD + .04 = 1.92% OIL + 1.70 = 49.21 GOLD + 1.90 = 1196.10 SILV + .01 = 17.06 Not much in the way of economic data today. Orders for durable goods dropped in February, a possible sign the slowdown in global growth may be weighing on American manufacturers. Bookings for goods meant to last at least three years declined 1.4 percent after a 2 percent gain in January that was smaller than previously estimated. Demand for American-made products may be softening as economies abroad struggle to accelerate and a stronger dollar makes it more attractive for foreign customers to buy from elsewhere.   Certainly not much in the way of news that would push the markets down to triple digit losses, but that’s the way the markets have been recently. In the past couple of weeks we see big moves in the markets, a little more to the downside than the upside. One of the better explanations I’ve heard for what is moving the market – irony. It seems like good news is bad and bad news is good. A strong dollar is good news for the consumer; certainly when it comes to lower gas prices. A strong dollar hurts durable goods orders. The jobs picture has shown solid and …

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Financial Review

Face the Facts

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-08-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:14 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSDOW – 25 = 17,111 SPX – 6 = 2001 NAS + 9 = 4592 10 YR YLD + .01 = 2.47% OIL – .63 = 92.66 GOLD – 12.90 = 1256.50 SILV – .17 = 19.12 The Federal Reserve reports consumers increased their debt by a seasonally adjusted $26.0 billion in July, up from an $18.8 billion gain in the prior month. Monthly debt rose at a 9.7% annual rate in July, compared with a 7.1% rate in the prior month. On a dollar amount, that’s a record gain, and on a percentage basis, it’s the highest since July 2011. Crude oil for October delivery fell 63 cents, or 0.7 percent, to settle at $92.66 a barrel in New York, its lowest level since January. Oil prices have fallen for three days straight as geopolitical worries in Ukraine and Iraq have eased. The ceasefire between Russia and the Ukraine is holding by a thread. The EU has approved a second round of sanctions against Russia, but today, they put the sanctions on hold, hoping for a favorable outcome. In an initial set of economic sanctions imposed in late July, the EU barred five state-owned Russian banks from selling shares or bonds in Europe; restricted the export of equipment to modernize the oil industry; prohibited new contracts to sell arms to Russia; and banned the export of machinery, electronics and other civilian products with …

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Financial Review

Be Careful Out There

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1_2-08-22-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 20:28 — 9.4MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS08222014 LISTEN HERE DOW – 38 = 17,001 SPX – 3 = 1988 NAS + 6 = 4538 10 YR YLD un = 2.40% OIL – .46 = 93.50 GOLD + 4.30 = 1281.60 SILV un = 19.51 All three major indices posted gains for the week, with the Dow up 2%, the S&P up 1.7% and the Nasdaq up 1.6%. It was the strongest week of gains for both the Dow and the S&P since April, and the third straight week of gains for all three indices. There is a lot to cover before we can wrap up the week. First we go to Jackson Hole Wyoming, where the Fed has been having a friendly get together of economists. Janet Yellen kicked off the event with a speech this morning. She said what you might expect: “There is no simple recipe for appropriate policy,” and she called for a “pragmatic” approach that gives officials room to evaluate data as it arrives without committing to a preset policy path. And she backed up her comments with a new tool, the Labor Market Conditions Index, which measures 19 labor market indicators, and it isn’t new data, just combining it all together, but it showed she is monitoring the data. Yellen referenced the possibility that labor markets may be a bit tighter than they seem and that the Fed may consider having to raise interest rates …

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