Financial Review

Sideways

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-11-19-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 11-19-2015 DOW – 4 = 17,732 SPX – 2 = 2081 NAS – 1 = 5073 10 YR YLD – .02 = 2.25% OIL – .24 = 40.51 GOLD + 11.30 = 1082.30 SILV + .04 = 14.32   The biggest rally in stocks in 4 weeks fizzled today. The S&P is up 2.9% so far this week. The S&P 500 has surged almost 12% from its August lows, including an 8.3% gain in October. Treasuries rose and the dollar fell. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rallied 1.9%, heading toward the biggest weekly gain since the period ended Oct. 9. Equity gauges in South Korea, India and South Africa jumped more than 1%. Oil touched the lowest level in almost three months.   The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell last week. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits slipped 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 271,000 for the week ended Nov. 14. Claims have now held below the 300,000 threshold for 37consecutive weeks, the longest stretch in years, and are not too far from levels last seen in the early 1970s. Claims below this level are usually associated with a healthy jobs market.   Other data showed a slight pick-up in factory activity in the mid-Atlantic region in November after two straight months of declines. In a separate report, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve said its general activity index rose to 1.9 this …

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Financial Review

Strange Days

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-12-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-12-2015 DOW – 0.33 = 17,402 SPX + 1 = 2086 NAS + 7 = 5044 10 YR YLD – .01 = 2.13% OIL + .23 = 43.31 GOLD + 16.80 = 1126.80 SILV + .18 = 15.64   Strange days indeed. While the closing numbers paint a picture of a calm day on Wall Street, it was anything but. The Dow Industrial Average started the session deep in the red; with a session low of a 277 point loss. And then it started clawing higher, briefly going positive for the day. US stocks gapped lower on the open following the lead of global stocks, Asian currencies, commodities and government bond yields were all heading south after China allowed the yuan to fall sharply for a second day, triggering concerns over the country’s economic health. The currency is down 4% over the last two days. The IMF has offered a cautious endorsement of the new pricing regime – which lets the market play a greater role in setting the value of the currency – in a step that may help Beijing win reserve currency status later this year. Late in the day, the Chinese government reportedly stepped in to prop up the yuan. And once again the shorts were shredded.   The number of available jobs fell in June, even as companies hired more. The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover …

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Financial Review

Thursday, June 05, 2014 – The European Central Bank Has Done Something

The European Central Bank Has Done Something by Sinclair Noe   DOW + 98 = 16,836 SPX + 12 = 1940 NAS + 44 = 4296 10 YR YLD – .02 = 2.58% OIL – .18 = 102.46 GOLD + 9.60 = 1254.20 SILV + .24 = 19.04   The Dow and the S&P finished with record high closes.   We start in Europe. The European Central Bank has done something. No, I’m serious, they did something; not just talked about doing “whatever it takes”, they actually took some action; nothing terribly bold; probably not enough, but something. Specifically, the ECB cut its benchmark interest rate to 0.15% from 0.25%, and the deposit rate to minus 0.10% from zero. The rate cuts will take effect next week, on June 11. They are trying the  negative interest rate, which has never been tried on a large scale, in a bid to push down the value of the euro and encourage banks to invest excess cash rather than hoard it in central bank vaults.   The ECB will also begin offering four-year loans to banks at the benchmark interest rates, under conditions meant to ensure that lenders use the money to issue loans to businesses. The loans are designed so that they can’t just borrow the money from the ECB at 0.15% and toss it into government bonds.   Also, the ECB will start buying packages of loans, or asset-backed securities; another measure designed to push lending to small businesses; right now …

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Financial Review

Financial Review for Monday, May 05, 2014 – Riggers’ Propaganda

Riggers’ Propaganda by Sinclair Noe DOW + 17 = 16,530SPX + 3 = 1884NAS + 14 = 413810 YR YLD + .02 = 2.61%OIL – .38 = 99.38GOLD + 9.10 = 1310.70SILV + .13 = 19.69 Last week we told you about prosecutors and regulators preparing to criminally prosecute Credit Suisse and maybe BNP Paribas, and the slap on the wrist enforcement efforts of the past decade, and especially under the mis-guidance of Attorney General Eric Holder’s “Too Big to Jail” policy. The Swiss finance minister met Holder on Friday to discuss a US probe into Swiss banks that allegedly helped Americans evade US taxes, which includes Credit Suisse. Today, Holder posted a video on the Justice Department website saying that the DOJ is pursuing criminal investigations of financial institutions that could result in action in the coming weeks and months, and adding that no company was “too big to jail.” A criminal conviction of an entity regulated in the United States could lead authorities to potentially revoke a charter, essentially a death sentence for a bank. In his video, Holder said prosecutors are working closely with regulators to address the issues before taking action, “Rather than wall off banks from prosecution, the potential for such severe consequences simply means that federal prosecutors conducting these investigations must go the extra mile to coordinate closely with the regulators that oversee these institutions’ day-to-day operations.” It’s starting to sound like Holder is going after criminal charges without the consequences of criminal charges; …

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Financial Review

Wednesday, April 09, 2014 – Feeding Time at the ZIRP Trough

Feeding Time at the ZIRP Troughby Sinclair Noe DOW + 181 = 16,437SPX + 20 = 1872NAS + 70 = 418310 YR YLD un = 2.68%OIL + 1.04 = 103.60GOLD + 4.30 = 1313.30SILV  – .22 = 19.95 In an otherwise light week for economic news, the big report is today’s release of the FOMC minutes from last month’s meeting. No surprises. You may recall that after the last meeting, Chairwoman Janet Yellen talked about the possibility of raising the fed funds target rate after a “considerable time”; when pressed she indicated a “considerable time” was about six months after the Fed ends it asset purchases under Quantitative Easing. That would mean late spring or summer of 2015. Fed policymakers were unanimous in wanting to ditch the thresholds they had been using to telegraph a policy tightening; no hard and fast target of 6.5% unemployment or 2% inflation. The minutes indicate the Fed would like to see more improvement in the economy; the emphasis on quality rather than quantity. In other words, the Fed remains dovish, and they will taper but they will also keep rates low for a long time. And also, those “dots” are over-rated. The dots are actually charts suggesting the fed funds rate would top 2% by the end of 2016. In the minutes published today, several policy-makers claim the charts overstated the shift in projections, which would suggest the Fed is not ready to tighten policy. A couple of the voting members wanted to commit …

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Uncategorized

Ticking Away by Sinclair Noe DOW + 180 = 15,176SPX + 23 = 1636NAS + 44 = 344510 YR YLD – .06 = 2.17% OIL + .83 = 96.71GOLD – 2.70 = 1386.70SILV + .07 = 21.95 Let’s spend the next few minutes together, shall we? It’s a strange expression, isn’t it? Spending time? Turns out you can buy time. Well, you can if you have enough money. You can’t buy much, but you can buy a little, and it turns out that buying a little time can be very profitable. High frequency trading outfits and other traders and investors buy time, just a second or so, or even milliseconds. And this gives them a profitable advantage. A few milliseconds to look at the latest economic report; maybe the market moving report on consumer confidence; maybe the market moving report on growth in the service sector. And if you have enough money, you can get this information at the same time as the high frequency traders who pay to get early access. It sounds like a type of insider trading, but it’s not. It’s legal; routine even. Thomson Reuters buys data points from various sources that compile the consumer confidence numbers and the purchasing managers surveys and such, and then they charge their news-feed customers a fat premium to get that information passed to them, just a smidge faster than everybody else. It’s called news feed trading or event jumping, and apparently the SEC and the other regulators don’t seem …

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Uncategorized

Friday, June 22, 2012 – Something About Mary – by Sinclair Noe

DOW + 67 = 12,640SPX + 9 = 1335NAS + 33 = 289210 YR YLD+.05 = 1.67%OIL + 13.92 = 92.12GOLD + 7.10 = 1573.30SILV +.02 = 27.00PLAT – 4.00 = 1441.00Over the past couple of weeks, we’ve paid attention to Jamie Dimon’s testimony on Capitol Hill. You might not have noticed the testimony of Mary Schapiro before the Senate before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs. Schapiro is the Chairwoman of the SEC. Her testimony was a frank warning on the vulnerabilities of the money market fund system. You may remember that in September 2008, money market funds broke the buck; there was a run on funds held in money market accounts that was only staunched by a $3 trillion dollar guarantee from the Treasury and the Federal Reserve. Breaking the buck was a key part of the financial crisis. There were profound implications for a reputedly rock solid investment. The effects rippled throughout the economy as investors were shortchanged and sponsors were squeezed as they were forced to shore up valuations. Could we see another run on money market funds? We already have. It happened one year ago, a small scale run. And yes, it could happen again. And just because the run was stopped in 2008 and 2011, it is no guarantee another run could be contained in the future. There has basically been no reforms to prevent or control a future money market fund run. Here’s part of Schapiro’s testimony:“Given the role money market funds …

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