Financial Review

Back-to-Back Hat Trick

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-13-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit record highs again. Third strongest and second longest bull market. Looking for a tax reform plan. Healthcare for none vs. Medicare for all. PPI jumps due to oil. Irma strikes a nursing home. Equifax apology falls flat. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-13-2017

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Financial Review

Carry On

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-06-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Stocks bounce back. A 3 month deal on debt ceiling. Highest taxes? Nope. Fischer resigns from Fed. Beige Book moderation. Trade deficit up. Service sector solid. Irma on the way. Closing the Gap. RH bounce. Intel win. New Leaf. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-06-2017

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Financial Review

Buckle Up

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-09-05-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…September promises a wild ride: spending, debt ceiling, immigration reform, disaster relief and more. DACA rescinded. Irma on the way. Nafta anyone? United Tech buys Rockwell. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 09-05-2017

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Financial Review

Non-Freak

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-24-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS….Stocks drift lower. Congress to tackle debt ceiling and tax reform. Yellen final hurrah at Jackson Hole. Amazon swallows Whole Foods on Monday. Existing home sales slide. Harvey goes to Texas. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-24-2017

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Financial Review

Insert Clever Eclipse Headline

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-21-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS….Markets on pause. Fed labor survey slack. Afghanistan strategy. Trump to Phoenix. No climate assessment. No debt default, maybe. Sempra busy Oncor. Total buys Maersk oil. Chinese Jeeps. The ultimate photobomb. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-21-2017

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Financial Review

Double Dog Dare

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-10-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS….Playing chicken with North Korea and stocks fall. How markets respond. Don’t forget tax reform and debt ceiling. Opioid emergency. PPI fell. Retailers slip, mainly. 2016 hottest ever. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-10-2017

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Financial Review

22k Day

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-08-02-2017.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS…..Dow closes above 22,000. Apple lifts the markets. Dollar at support. How a weak dollar helps some companies. Watching the debt ceiling. Trump signs Russian sanctions. Tesla cash burn, but better than expected. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 08-02-2017

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Financial Review

Jobs Report Friday: meh

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-10-02-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-02-2015 DOW + 200 = 16,472 SPX + 27 = 1951 NAS + 80 = 4707 10 YR YLD – .05 = 1.99% OIL + .92 = 45.66 GOLD + 24.90 = 1139.40 SILV + .74 = 15.37   The economy added a seasonally adjusted 142,000 jobs in September, missing estimates by about 60,000. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.1%. More people dropped out of the labor force.   The Department of Labor revised the August employment numbers from 173,000, down to just 136,000.  The disappointing back-to-back employment reports were the worst pair in three years. Employment gains for July were also revised down from 245,000 to 223,000. The combined revisions for July and August lopped off 59,000 jobs from previous reports. Normally, the August jobs number is revised higher, not lower. Because of education related jobs and other variables, the August report has been notorious for upward revisions; typically at least 35,000 positions are added to the initial count. Not today. Six of the past eight reports have been revised lower in subsequent months.   Taken together, the three months averaged 167,000, a total that, while representing expansion, also signifies a major slowdown from the 260,000 per month clip for all of 2014. Moreover, at the beginning of the year, the three-month average was 312,000. Overall in 2015, job creation is now below the 200,000 milestone, …

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Tuesday, February 11, 2014 – Yellen: Far From Complete

Yellen: Far From Complete by Sinclair Noe DOW + 192 = 15,994SPX + 19 = 1819NAS + 42 = 419110 YR YLD + .04 = 2.71%OIL + .36 = 100.42GOLD + 15.90 = 1291.90SILV + .16 = 20.34 Janet Yellen went to Capitol Hill this morning to deliver her first semi-annual Monetary Policy Report to Congress as Fed Chair; this is what we used to call the Humphrey-Hawkins testimony and it involves prepared remarks followed by a question and answer before the House Committee of Financial Services; tomorrow, she’ll repeat the process with senators. With regard to monetary policy, Yellen said she expects a great deal of continuity in the FOMC’s approach to monetary policy. No surprise; Yellen was the vice-chair, she served on the FOMC, she helped formulate the current monetary policy strategy, and she supports the strategy. Yellen pointed to real gross domestic product growth which rose at an average annual rate of more than 3.5% in the third and fourth quarters, versus 1.75% in the first and second. She also said there has been “progress” in the labor market which has added 3.25 million jobs since the Fed began a new round of asset purchases in August 2012. However the economy added just 113,000 jobs last month, and 75,000 jobs the month prior. While Yellen did not specifically reference these weaker than expected reports in her prepared remarks, she called the labor recovery “far from complete.” And the Fed’s target of 6.5% unemployment as the line where …

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Wednesday, October 16, 2013 – That Was Close

That Was Close by Sinclair Noe DOW + 205 = 15,373SPX + 23 = 1721NAS + 45 = 383910 YR YLD – .05 = 2.67%OIL + .87 = 102.08GOLD + 1.70 = 1283.70SILV + .12 = 21.52 Wait, wait. Stop the countdown. There will be no debt-pocalypse. Not tonight. The politicians have worked out a deal. Whew, that was close. Under the agreement, the government would be funded through Jan. 15, and the debt ceiling would be raised until Feb. 7. So, if you stocked up on canned goods and cigarettes, well, they’ll keep a few months and we can do this again to start the new year. The government will re-open tomorrow. The government debt will be paid as usual. Life goes on. Even as the shutdown of the United States government and the threat of a default appear to be coming to an end, the cost of Congress’s gridlock has already run well into the billions. Retail sales that weren’t made, canceled vacations to national parks and other destinations, import inspections, export financing, and oil and gas permitting stalled; and the total will continue to grow after the shutdown ends. A full accounting will take months but this will likely have some adverse effect on 4thquarter GDP. Plus, tack on higher interest payments on short term debt, which have tripled from just a few weeks ago.  The World Bank has estimated that a similar standoff in 2011 raised borrowing costs in poor countries by about 0.75 percentage point, …

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Monday, October 14, 2013 – Canned Goods and Cigarettes

Canned Goods and Cigarettes by Sinclair Noe DOW + 64 = 15,301SPX + 6 = 1710NAS + 23 = 381510 YR YLD + .01 = 2.69%OIL + .12 = 102.14GOLD + .10 = 1274.30SILV – .07 = 21.37 Earlier today President Obama warned that if the standoff is not resolved by Thursday’s deadline to raise the debt ceiling, “we stand a good chance of defaulting.” And then he postponed a scheduled meeting with congressional leaders. That’s the good news. No, seriously, that’s the good news; Senate leaders were closing in on a deal to raise the federal debt ceiling and end the 2 week old government shutdown, so the president stepped aside to let the legislators work a deal. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said on the floor that he was “very optimistic” about what he called the “constructive, good-faith negotiations” aimed at avoiding the nation’s first default on its debt. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said he expected that “we’re going to get a result that will be acceptable to both sides.” Of course, if they don’t reach a deal by tomorrow, you might want to stock up on canned goods and cigarettes; there’s a good chance cigarettes will be more valuable than gold in the debt-pocalypse. And the meltdown could start prior to the actual deadline of Thursday; folks will wait it out tomorrow, but before the close of the markets on Wednesday, if there is no deal, it could get ugly. So stock up on the canned …

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Tuesday, October 08, 2013 – Low Probability High Consequence

10082013 Script Low Probability High Consequence by Sinclair Noe DOW – 159 = 14,776SPX – 20 = 1655NAS – 75 = 369410 YR YLD un = 2.63%OIL + .53 = 103.56GOLD – 3.50 – 1319.90SILV – .06 = 22.39 The Dow Industrials are down for 11 of the past 14 sessions, posting a loss of nearly 900 points. It’s not exactly a crash; Wall Street is still expecting a resolution to the debt ceiling and the shutdown. The debt ceiling will likely be resolved with some short-term band-aid, but there is a chance that the idiots will mess it up and there will be a default. There is a low probability of default but a high consequence; that’s a nasty mix and the reason I don’t play Russian Roulette. Most financial markets are only slowly getting worried about the possibility of a debt default, but in one tiny corner of the bond market things are starting to look a little panicky. Today, investors dumped one-month Treasury bills due for payment after October 17, the date the Treasury Department has warned it will no longer have the cash to pay all of its obligations unless Congress raises its borrowing limit, known as the debt ceiling. Every day that passes after that date raises the risk the government will default on some of its debt. These short-term bills will probably be the first to go unpaid. Interest rates and bond prices move in opposite directions; so as prices dropped today, rates spiked, …

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Monday, October 07, 2013 – Already Bankrupt

Already Bankrupt by Sinclair Noe DOW – 136 = 14, 936 SPX – 14 = 1676NAS – 37 = 377010 YR YLD – .02 = 2.63%OIL – .67 = 103.17GOLD + 11.20 = 1323.40SILV + .61 = 22.45 The markets gave up Friday’s gains. The political dysfunction is hurting; right now it’s just the economic uncertainty; that’s a phrase I hate because businesses always face uncertainty but the shutdown and the looming debt ceiling are significant uncertainties. Let’s start with the debt ceiling. Businessweek is describing it as “an economic calamity like none the world has ever seen.” Here’s the not so rosy scenario: “Failure by the world’s largest borrower to pay its debt — unprecedented in modern history — will devastate stock markets from Brazil to Zurich, halt a $5 trillion lending mechanism for investors who rely on Treasuries, blow up borrowing costs for billions of people and companies, ravage the dollar and throw the U.S. and world economies into a recession that probably would become a depression. Among the dozens of money managers, economists, bankers, traders and former government officials interviewed for this story, few view a U.S. default as anything but a financial apocalypse. “ Sure, if the US misses a payment it would be much bigger than 2008 because the US government is so much bigger and more interconnected than Lehman Brothers; and after the collapse of Lehman, the government stepped in to clean up the mess. Who cleans up the mess when the mess is …

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Friday, October 04, 2013 – This Is Not A Game

This Is Not A Game by Sinclair Noe DOW + 76 = 15,072SPX +11 = 1690NAS + 33 = 380710 YR YLD + .04 = 2.65%OIL + .39 = 103.70GOLD – 5.50 = 1312.20SILV + .04 = 21.84 The government showdown continues. So, there isn’t much actually happening. We don’t have a jobs report to analyze. The next jobs report will be so screwed up by the shutdown that it won’t be possible to make heads or tails of it, whenever it is reported. We don’t need a functioning government to tell us that the job market is lousy. But we do need one to help make the job market better. It’s the first Friday of the month, usually the day we get a bunch of random numbers from the government telling us what we already knew: Good jobs are scarce. This month, the government is too busy being held hostage by House Republicans to give us those random numbers. But there’s plenty of evidence already that September was grimly similar to many of the months that came before it in this grinding recovery. With sagging consumer confidence and hiring surveys, September may even have been worse than August. Whenever Bureau of Labor Statistics workers stop being furloughed by a government shutdown, economists, on average, expect it to report 185,000 new jobs on nonfarm payrolls in September and an unemployment rate holding at 7.3 percent. And if we look at this week’s ADP report and the ISM hiring survey, we …

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Thursday, October 03, 2013 – Don’t Underestimate the Idiocy

Don’t Underestimate the Idiocy by Sinclair Noe DOW – 136 = 14,996SPX – 15 = 1678NAS – 40 = 377410 YR YLD – .02 = 2.61%OIL – 1.22 = 102.88GOLD + .40 = 1317.70SILV – .04 = 21.80 Well, we won’t be able to sift through the jobs report tomorrow, due to the government shutdown. There are lots of things that won’t happen tomorrow, but next week, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank will meet in Washington. Ahead of the meeting, Christing Lagarde, the IMF Director delivered an assessment of the global economy. It’s subdued. Lagarde says “In many of the advanced economies, however, we are finally seeing signs of hope. Growth is looking up, financial stability is returning, and fiscal accounts are looking healthier.” The impact of a slowdown on US Federal Reserve asset purchases had been expected to dominate this year’s annual meetings but the Fed’s decision to hold off on tapering has removed that focus. And attention will now turn to the spectacle of a government shutdown and impending debt ceiling default. Lagarde called the debt ceiling “mission critical”, because “the normalization of monetary policy affects so many markets and people across the globe, the US has a special responsibility: to implement it in an orderly way, linking it to the pace of recovery and employment; to communicate it clearly; and to conduct a dialogue with others.” Late yesterday, President Obama was interviewed by CNBC and he warned that investors should be worried, saying “This …

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Wednesday, October 02, 2013 – Genie Out of the Bottle

Genie Out of the Bottle by Sinclair Noe DOW – 58 = 15,133SPX – 1 = 1693NAS – 2 = 381510 YR YLD – .02 = 2.63%OIL + 1.76 = 103.80GOLD + 28.80 = 1317.30SILV + .57 = 21.83 So, the heads of the biggest banks, including Lloyd Blankfein of Goldman Sachs and Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan and Brian Moynihan of Bank of America, and a list of others (apparently Dick Fuld from Lehman Brothers couldn’t afford the bus fare); so all these big banksters went to the White House today to discuss the shutdown. Heaven help us all. The President is getting advice on the economy from the very people who crashed the economy a few years ago. And then later in the afternoon the president met with lawmakers, not to negotiate but just to meet with the people that created the shutdown. Can everybody, please, just step away from the crack pipe? Maybe the politicians should try meeting with people that didn’t cause the problems. The meeting with the banksters, set up by the Financial Services Forum, a Washington-based trade group representing CEOs of the largest Wall Street banks, was part of an effort by the administration to leverage the business community’s clout in breaking the stalemate. Administration officials said pressure from the business community was effective in past fiscal fights. In other words, the financial industry threatened to take away the campaign contributions if the politicians persist in driving the economy off a cliff. The impending debt …

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Tuesday, October 01, 2013 – The Universe is Unfolding As It Should

The Universe is Unfolding As It Should by Sinclair Noe DOW + 62 = 15,191SPX + 13 = 1695NAS + 46 = 381710 YR YLD + .03 = 2.64%OIL – .70 = 101.63GOLD – 40.40 = 1288.50SILV – .54 = 21.27 Thank you for joining us today. We will now arbitrarily shutdown for no apparent reason. We regret that this might cause inconvenience for listeners, advertisers, employees, or anyone else. Can you imagine if you tried that with your business? But the business of politics is not like your business; politics has become more like theater of the absurd. Let’s review how this is supposed to work. Voters elect representatives. The representatives write legislation, vote on it, the House of Representatives votes, the Senate votes, the bill goes to the President, the bill becomes a law. There are a series of checks and balances, including the possibility of a veto. The courts may weigh in to opine on whether the law is constitutional. And then every couple of years, the voters get a chance to weigh in and vote the bums out or not, which might open the door for a new crop of politicians to write new legislation. Now, I’ve been wondering what I might say that’s new and different about the shutdown; probably not much, except perhaps that it is more of a showdown that a shutdown, and there will be a political price to pay eventually. That thought is based upon the last shutdown in 1996; just …

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Monday, September 30, 2013 – Politically Dysfunctional Insanity

Politically Dysfunctional Insanityby Sinclair Noe DOW – 128 = 15,129SPX – 10 = 1681NAS – 10 = 377110 YR YLD – .04 = 2.61%OIL – .56 = 102.31GOLD – 8.30 = 1328.90SILV – .07 = 21.81 We’ll get to the shutdown and all that fun politically dysfunctional insanity in just a moment, but first we need to wrap up the third quarter. The Dow Industrials are up about 260 points for the third quarter, and the S&P500 is up 80 points. Year to date the Dow has gained about 2000 points and the S&P has gained about 260. Since the start of the year, the yield on the 10 year Treasury note has climbed from around 1.75% to 2.51% at the end of the second quarter (briefly touching 3%). Oil prices dropped from around $110 in just about a week’s worth of trading, but prices are up about $10 dollars since the start of the year, and down about $1 for 3Q. If you’re wondering how the Sell in May idea has worked out, well the Dow is down about 130 points from the May sell signal and the S&P is down 35 points. So, Sell in May is looking good and could look a whole lot better if the government shuts down in a little less than 5 hours. Tomorrow, the fourth quarter begins. A potential federal government shutdown looms at midnight.So, the question is whether underperforming Wall Street traders will push prices higher in the face of government …

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Wednesday, September 25, 2013 – Imagine

Imagine by Sinclair Noe DOW – 61 = 15,273SPX – 4 = 1692NAS – 7 = 376110 YR YLD – .04 = 2.61%OIL – .83 = 102.30GOLD + 10.10 = 1334.10SILV + .07 = 21,90 The stock markets have gone through a bad patch; five consecutive declines have knocked 400 points off the Dow Industrials; no surprise. According to the Stock Traders Almanac, the week after September options expiration (this week) has consistently been one of the worst of the year. Since 1988, weekly declines average from –0.93% for NASDAQ to –1.49% for Russell 2000 and S&P 500 has only posted gains five times in 25 years. Meanwhile, bonds have enjoyed a nice little rally since the Fed announced “no taper”. We can understand how quantitative easing benefits Treasuries, but the threat of a government shutdown or default benefiting Treasuries? Go figure. I read today that a chief investment strategist at a trading house that will go unnamed is predicting that the S&P 500 may go to 1,900 now that the Federal Reserve has decided to not taper its asset purchasing program. He is correct. It might go to 1,900. Then again, it might not.  It might go to 600. Then again, it might not. Why should market players be nervous? No worries! We finally got bipartisan cooperation in Congress; after weeks of wrangling and posturing, Senate Democrats and Republicans came together in a near-unanimous vote to shutdown Senator Ted Cruz. The vote shuts down all non-essential function of Senator Cruz; so …

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Wednesday, September 18, 2013 – Surprise, Surprise, Surprise

Surprise, Surprise, Surprise by Sinclair Noe DOW + 147 = 15,676SPX + 20 = 1725NAS + 37 = 378310 YR YLD – .16 = 2.68%OIL + .43 = 108.50GOLD + 55.30 = 1366.30SILV + 1.23 = 23.06 Record highs for the Dow Industrials and the S&P 500, topping the highs of August 2. Surprise, surprise, surprise. It was not guaranteed the Fed would start to taper, but it was widely expected. We’ve talked about the reasons why the Fed might taper; the timing of the remaining FOMC meetings this year, some improvement in the economy, fear of frothy markets. Fouhgetaboutit. After two days of meetings, the FOMC decided to continue with the current quantitative easing policy of purchasing $85 billion a month in mortgage backed securities and treasuries. The punchbowl is full and the party is still rocking. In addition to record highs for the Dow and S&P 500, we saw 5-year Treasury’s biggest yield drop since March 2009, the US dollar’s third worst day in a year, home-builders had their biggest rally since last summer, and gold had its best day since January 2009. At least Wall Street institutions and traders love the accommodative policy and the morphine drip of free money from the Fed. So the patient is still on morphine and the reason is because of extreme weakness. The economy just isn’t strong enough to survive on its own. The stock market no longer rallies to the tune of increased retail sales, growing export markets or improved …

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