Financial Review

Lie or Be Lehman

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-05-27-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 121 = 18,162 SPX + 19 = 2123 NAS + 73 = 5106 10 YR YLD – .01 = 2.13% OIL – .38 = 57.65 GOLD + .20 = 1189.00 SILV – .07 = 16.75   Yesterday the Dow posted a triple digit loss, today a triple digit gain; not enough to cover yesterday’s losses. The Nasdaq was higher on strength in semiconductor stocks; the Nasdaq posted a new record high close, taking out the high from April 24. The dollar was slightly stronger, oil was down again.   Severe storms and devastating floods over the weekend in Texas and Oklahoma have killed at least 19 people. Another 14 people are missing in Texas, including eight members of two families whose vacation home was swept away. The flooding has also resulted in complications for business travelers. About 11 inches of rain fell in Houston on Monday while parts of Austin have been hit by as much as 7 inches. Helicopter crews in both cities rescued people who had been stranded in cars and on top of buildings. The National Weather Service issued a new flash flood warning today.   The IRS says tax return information for about 100,000 U.S. taxpayers was illegally accessed by cyber criminals over the past four months. The stolen information included tax returns and other tax information on file with the IRS. The IRS said the …

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Financial Review

Chips and Salsa Like 1999

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-24-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 21 = 18,080 SPX + 4 = 2117 NAS + 36 = 5092 10 YR YLD – .03 = 1.92% OIL – .58 = 57.16   Yesterday, the Nasdaq closed at 5,056, finally surpassing its tech-boom peak of 5,048 set in March 2000. It only took a little over 15 years to get back to those levels. Today the party continued. The S&P 500 hit a new record high close, but just barely; topping the March 2 record by a fraction. For the week, the Nasdaq surged 3.2% and the S&P 500 jumped 1.8%. The Dow added 1.4%.   WTI crude oil closed down 58 cents at $57.16 a barrel, retreating from Thursday’s 2015 high of $58.41. It rose for a sixth straight week, its longest such stretch since the first quarter of 2014. This week’s gain was 2.5 percent. After a sell-off between June and January driven by oversupply, oil prices seem to have found their footing in the last three months, gaining about 33 percent from a low in March.   In the past year, there’s been an inverse relationship between the price of crude oil and the relative performance of retail stocks. Also, most retailers aren’t hurt by a stronger dollar; rather, it helps because items imported to the US are cheaper. An almost 60 percent decline in oil between June 2014 and mid-March contributed partly …

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Financial Review

Chips and Salsa

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-23-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:15 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 20 = 18,058 SPX + 4 = 2112 NAS + 20 = 5056 10 YR YLD – .02 = 1.95% OIL + 1.32 = 57.48   Record highs on Wall Street today. On March 10, 2000 the Nasdaq Composite Index reached an intraday high of 5,132 and closed at 5,048. It only took a little over 15 years to get back to those levels. The Nasdaq is now up 6.8% for 2015. The Nasdaq Composite now trades at 30 times earnings, versus a multiple of 190 in March 2000; not exactly a value play, but not dot-com frothiness. The S&P 500 hit a new intraday high but could not take out the 2117 record close from early March.   The number of people who applied for regular state unemployment-insurance benefits ticked up 1,000 to 295,000 in the week that ended April 18. Also, the government said continuing claims, which show the number of people already receiving weekly unemployment checks, rose 50,000 to 2.33 million in the week that ended April 11.   Sales of new single-family homes dropped 11.4% to 481,000 in March, hitting the slowest pace since November.  Sales of new single-family homes increased about 19% over the past year. However, sales still remain almost 40% below a long-term pace set over 20 years.   Financial data firm Markit said its preliminary U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index …

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Financial Review

How to Eat a Bank

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-04-10-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:14 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 98 = 18,057 SPX + 10 = 2102 NAS + 21 = 4995 10 YR YLD – .01 = 1.95% OIL + .99 = 51.78 GOLD + 13.80 = 1208.30 SILV + .34 = 16.59   For the week, the Dow is up 1.6 percent, the S&P is up 1.7 percent and the Nasdaq is up 2.3 percent. Both the Dow and S&P notched their second straight week of gains.   Oil posted its fourth consecutive weekly gain. The oil rally coincided with a stronger dollar, which weighs on dollar denominated commodities. In March, the prices the U.S. paid for imported goods and services fell for the eighth time in the last nine months, even though the cost of foreign oil actually rose for the second straight time. Import prices dropped 0.3% last month, or an even steeper 0.4% excluding fuel.   The sharply lower cost of imported goods is a double-edged sword. We may pay less for commodities and all sorts of goods such as cell phones and electronics; and that can stretch paychecks. Next Tuesday the Commerce Department reports on retail sales and we’ll find out if shoppers are in a spending mood or a savings mood. A strong dollar is also great if you plan to travel abroad; they say April in Paris is pretty nice. Yet the strong dollar also makes US goods and services more …

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Financial Review

Good Luck With That

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-29-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:17 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 225 = 17,416 SPX + 19 = 2021 NAS + 45 = 4683 10 YR YLD + .02 = 1.75% OIL + .09 = 44.54 GOLD – 25.20 = 1259.10 SILV – 1.04 = 17.02 Yesterday, the Federal Reserve said it would remain “patient” on raising rates, but indicated it saw the U.S. economy getting stronger. The Fed also said it has seen inflation decline, and it may decline further, but that low oil prices are probably temporary. The FOMC statement said that economic activity has expanded “at a solid pace” and that labor market conditions have improved. That was certainly the case last week. The fewest Americans in almost 15 years filed applications for unemployment benefits during a holiday-shortened week that typically makes the data more volatile. Jobless claims dropped by 43,000 to 265,000 in the week ended Jan. 24, the lowest since April 2000. No state reported an increase of more than 1,000 in claims for the week ended Jan. 17. The National Association of Realtors reports its index of pending home sales fell 3.7% in December, though the year-on-year gain was 11.7%, the highest since June 2013. Pending sales measures contracts signed but not yet closed. The Census Bureau reports the number of owner-occupied households fell by 354,000 from a year earlier as the homeownership rate dropped to its lowest level since 1994. The ownership …

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Financial Review

Theories on Apples and Applesauce

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-01-16-2015.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW + 190 = 17,511 SPX + 26 = 2019 NAS + 63 = 4634 10 YR YLD + .04 = 1.81% OIL + 2.32 = 48.57 GOLD + 17.70 = 1281.30 SILV + .83 = 17.88 Stocks bounced back after five sessions of losses. All 10 of the S&P 500 sectors were higher, though energy led the charge, rising 2.8%. U.S. crude oil futures settled up 5% after the International Energy Agency said there were signs that lower prices had begun to curb production in some areas. On the week, oil rose 0.7%, snapping a seven-week losing streak. The IEA report said that the market’s floor was still anybody’s guess, but “the sell-off is having an impact,” and “A price recovery – barring any major disruption – may not be imminent, but signs are mounting that the tide will turn. We love lower gas prices. A gauge of consumer sentiment jumped up to an 11 year high this month. The preliminary January reading on the University of Michigan’s consumer-sentiment index increased to 98.2, the highest level since January 2004, from a final December reading of 93.6. Also, more households were reporting increases in household incomes. Consumer inflation in December saw the biggest monthly drop in six years. Consumer prices, the CPI, fell 0.4% in December. You know the big driver for lower prices; energy prices plunged 4.7% in December, …

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Financial Review

Divergence

http://media.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/p/content.blubrry.com/eatthebankers/SINCLAIR_NOE-SEG_1-12-09-2014.mp3Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB)Subscribe: iTunes | Android | RSSFinancial Review by Sinclair Noe DOW – 51 = 17,801 SPX – 0.49 = 2059 NAS + 25 = 4766 10 YR YLD – .04 = 2.22% OIL + .80 = 63.85 GOLD + 27.80 = 1233.00 SILV + .73 = 17.21 We’ll start with economic news. The Labor Department reports there were 4.83 million job openings in October, up from 4.69 million job openings in September. The number of available jobs means workers are more likely to leave their current jobs in search of a better deal. The quit rate, the share of total employees opting to quit their jobs was 1.9% in October, roughly the same level it was just before 2007. With 9 million unemployed people in October, there were about 1.9 potential job seekers per opening. In October 2013, there were 11.14 million unemployed people or about 2.8 potential seekers per opening. The Commerce Department reports wholesale inventories increased 0.4%, despite an energy price-related decline in the value of petroleum stocks. September’s wholesale stocks were revised up to show a 0.4% gain. This might indicate that third quarter GDP could be revised slightly higher. The National Federation of Independent Business says small-business sentiment reached a seven-year high in November. The index rose 2 points to 98.1, the highest level since Feb. 2007, as expectations for business conditions in six months surged and expectations for real sales volumes also gained. While stocks …

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